rising bond yield and overbought stocks will time market top

8/3/2019 Rising Bond Yield and Overbought Stocks will Time Market Top

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

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Januar y 24, 2011 Ris ing Bond Yie ld and Overbought Stoc ks w i l l T im e Mark et Top

Stocks become less attractive fundamentally as the 30-Year bond yields rises. Couple this with

overbought technicals and you have the recipe for a market top. My market call, US stockindices will set their first quarter highs this week. Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ areabove quarterly pivots at 12,478, 1305.4 and 2777 with quarterly risky levels at 5448 Transportsand 829.03 Russell 2000. The yield on the 10-Year moved above its 50-day simple movingaverage at 1.963 last week with the 200-day SMA at 2.439. Gold is on the cusp of its 50-day SMAat $1667.8 with the 200-day at $1638.6. Crude oil is on the cusp of its 50-day SMA at $99.20 withthe 200-SMA at $95.36. The euro versus the dollar is influenced by my semiannual pivot at1.2980 with its 50-day at 1.3100.

10-Year Note (2.062) My annual value level is 2.502 with weekly, daily, semiannual, quarterly,monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.974, 1.930, 1.902, 1.687, 1.409 and 1.385.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters


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Comex Gold ($1677.8) Weekly, annual and weekly value levels are $1613.2, $1575.8, $1388.4 and$1569.2 with semiannual pivots at $1635.8 and $1659.5, and daily, monthly and quarterly risky levels

at $1683.9, $1706.7 and $1740.9.


Nymex Crude Oil ($989.79) Daily, semiannual and monthly value levels are $97.63, $79.83 and$75.53 with my quarterly pivot at $99.87, and weekly, semiannual and annual risky levels at $101.47,

$104.84, and $103.58 and $117.00.



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The Euro (1.3028) Weekly, monthly and quarterly value levels are 1.2783, 1.2780 and 1.2499 withdaily and semiannual pivots at 1.2949 and 1.2980, and annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.4239

and 1.4405.


Daily Dow: (12,709) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 12,478, 12,312,11,210, 8,425 and 8,336 with a daily pivot at 12,686, the May 2, 2011 high at 12,876, and quarterly,weekly and annual risky levels at 12,796, 13,391 and 14,032..



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S&P 500 (1316.0) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 1152.8, 841.7 and 829.9 with quarterlyand daily pivots at 1305.4 and 1317.0, and quarterly, annual, weekly and annual risky levels at 1331.7

1363.2, 1383.5 and 1562.9. The May 2, 2011 high is 1370.58.NASDAQ (2784) Annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2698, 2432, 2012 and 1952 withmy quarterly pivot at 2777, and daily, quarterly, weekly and annual risky levels at 2806, 2849, 2894and 3232. The May 2, 2011 high is 2887.75.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2437) Annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2300, 2185, 1851 and1743 with my quarterly pivot at 2422, and daily, quarterly, weekly and annual risky levels at 2455,2471, 2521 and 2603. A new 52-week high was set at 2445.59 on January 19, 2012.

Dow Transports (5241) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 4443, 4407 and 3778 with daily,quarterly, weekly and annual risky levels at 5279, 5448, 5543, 5861 and 6111. The all time high wasset at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011.

Russell 2000 (783.05) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 646.71, 572.90 and 510.81 withdaily, quarterly, annual, weekly and annual risky levels at 786.34, 824.46, 829.03, 836.15, 839.23 and969.09. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.

The SOX (413.09) Quarterly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 390.17, 310.48,269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with daily and weekly pivots at 414.96 and 416.67, and quarterly andannual risky levels at 423.32 and 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

ValuEngine Valuation Model Stocks are not cheap enough to chase MOJO. 65.9% of all stocks are undervalued / 34.1% of all stocks are overvalued. On October 4 th -

93.5% of all stocks were undervalued. All sixteen sectors are undervalued, only four by double-digit percentages (10.7% to 15.3%).

Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. Check out and subscribeto www.ValuEngine.com.

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ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly BankingProfile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication:http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=CThe December FDIC report with complete analysis ofthe Q3 Quarterly Banking Profile is now available. I track the continuing slow improvement to thehousing market and banking system, but recognize that we are not out of the war.

ValuEngine Capital Management - Over the years many of my readers have asked for investment


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help based upon ValuEngine and my technical analysis expertise. This is now possible through VECapital Management LLC. If you are a Registered Investment Advisor looking for new products to offeto your clients, let me know. If you have any questions, please respond to this email.

Definition of MOJO This is my term for technical momentum. I use whats called 12x3x3 slowstochastic readings from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions Value Level The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price

weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level. Risky Level The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple

long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength tothe Risky Level.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions Value Level The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple

short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weaknesto the Value Level.

Risky Level The price at which you establish an addition short position on share pricestrength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market StrategistValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, andquarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. Mynewest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go tohttp://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

rising bond yield and overbought stocks will time market top

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