gopb long term projections: an overview of the uped process
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GOPB Long Term Projections: An Overview of the UPED Process. Prepared for: Wasatch Front Regional Council Socioeconomic Projections Working Group February 23, 2000. Contact Information. Pam Perlich (801) 538-1537 [email protected] - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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GOPB Long Term Projections:An Overview of the UPED Process
Prepared for:
Wasatch Front Regional Council
Socioeconomic Projections Working Group
February 23, 2000
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Contact Information
• Pam Perlich (801) 538-1537 [email protected]
• Ross Reeve (801) 538-1545 [email protected]
• Web Site: www.qget.state.ut.us/projections
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Today’s Presentation • Relations between major planning
models– UPED is regional– WFRC
• sub-regional• feedback / constraints / allocation to UCAPE
• Overview the UPED model
• Assumptions driving the regional results
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Planning Models
Regional Economic /
Demographic
Projection Model
GOPBGeographic
Information System
AGRC
Water
Supply/Demand
Model
DWR
Transportation
Planning Models
MPOs, UDOT
Air Quality Models
DAQ
Small Area Allocation Models
MPOs, AOGs
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Utah Process Economic & Demographic Model (UPED)
Economic Base Model
Economic Base Model
Cohort Component Model
Cohort Component Model
Integrated Regional Economic and Demographic Projections
Integrated Regional Economic and Demographic Projections
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Economic Base Model
Regional Growth of the
Export Sector
Regional Growth of the
Export Sector
Regional Growth of:Residentiary SectorResident Population
Regional Growth of:Residentiary SectorResident Population
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Cohort Component Model
Beginning Population
Plus Births
Minus Out-Migrants
Minus Deaths
Plus In-Migrants
Ending Population
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UPED Model General Flowchart
Population in Year t-1
Age & Survive; Births & Non- Employment Related In-Migration
Adjusted Natural Increase Population
Non-Employment Related Out-Migration & Employment Related Net In-Migration in Year t
Population in Year t
Labor Market
Population Dependent Job
Opportunities in Year t
Labor Force in Year t
Total Job Opportunities in Year t
Basic Job Opportunities in Year t
Recursive
IterativeDirect Model Components
Inputs & Outputs
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UPED Employment
Production for Regional Consumption
Direct & Indirect
Production for Export
Direct & Indirect
Residentiary Employment
(REDi)
Total Employment (TEDi)
Basic Employment (BEDi)
Permanent Basic
Employment (BEDPi)
Temporary Basic
Employment (BEDTi)
Change in Permanent Basic
For Event or Impact
(BEDPACi or BEDCACi)
Growth Rate of Permanent Basic For Baseline
(BEDPGi or BEDPGRi)
= If Baseline
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Economic Growth Projections
• Employment growth is the driver of the long run population path in the UPED model.
• These employment projections combine “top down” and “bottom up” methods.
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Long Term Employment Growth
17%
83%
0%
20%
40%60%
80%
100%
Shares ofPopulation
Change
Natural IncreaseNet In-Migration
• Net in-migration contributed 17% of population increase from 1948 - 1998.
• Long term employment growth is sufficient to generate the same relative component contributions for 1999 - 2050.
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Short Term Employment Growth
• State level major industry employment for 1999 through 2004 is controlled to the results of the state’s short term models.
• The results of the GOPB Olympic impact study are included.
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Employment Projections
• Firm and industry specific assumptions have been produced by analysts at – Workforce Information, DWS– Associations of Government– Metropolitan Planning Organizations– Department of Natural Resources– Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget
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Industry Assumptions• Coal mining, oil and gas extraction, and petroleum
and coal manufacturing are produced by analysts in Department of Natural Resources.
• Construction has been modeled separately and converges to its historical mean share of employment in each region.
• Some industries are not treated as special cases. The employment in these is generated by the model by maintaining relative differences with the national projection series.
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Firms with Specific Assumptions:Wasatch Front Region
ALLIANT TECHSYSTEMS GULL LABORATORIES REESE BROTHERS INC.AMERICAN STORES HILL AFB RITE AIDAMX INTERNATIONAL HUNTSMAN CANCER INSTITITE SELECT COMFORT RETAIL GROUPBUREAU OF THE CENSUS INTEL INTERNATIONAL SPECIALIZED BICYCLE COMPONENTSCALDERA INTERNATIONAL HOME FOODS INC STERLING TRUCKCOMMUNICATION & COMMERCE IOMEGA CORPORATION SUMMERPLACECORNELL CORRECTIONS INC JET BLUE AIRWAYS SYSCOCOSTCO KENNECOTT TARTAN TEXTILESDANA CORPORATION MARKETSTAR CORPORATION THERATECHDAW TECHNOLOGIES MICROPOINT INC. U.S. WESTDICK SIMON TRUCKING NORDSTROMS UTAH RELAYEAGLE OPG PACIFICORP UTILITY TRAILER MANUFACTURINGEBAY INC PACKARD BELL NEC INC WATKINS MOTOR LINES INCFIRST USA PAGENET WINAIR INCFRANKLIN COVEY PENCO PRODUCTS INC YANKEE CANDLE CO.GARDENBURGER INC PIPER IMPACT ZCMIGATEWAY 2000 INC PULP MOLD PACKAGING ZIONS BANK/FIRST SECURITY MERGER
QUANEX CORP
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Industries with Specific Assumptions
General Construction All Regions
Heavy Construction All Regions
Special Trade Construction All Regions
Coal Mining (from DNR) Central and Southeast Regions
Oil & Gas Mining (from DNR) Uintah Basin and Southeast Regions
Petroleum Refining & Coal Products (from DNR) Wasatch Front
Metal Mining Wasatch Front
Primary Metals Wasatch Front & Mountainland
Electric, Gas, & Sanitary Central, Uintah Basin, Southeast
Private Education Mountainland
Federal Defense All Regions
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Olympic Employment Impacts
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Construction Manufacturing TCU Trade
FIRE Services Government Non-Farm Prop
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Total State Employment and Population
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Population Total Employment
2,290,819
3,683,687
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Total Population Annual Growth Rates
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
State of Utah Wasatch Front
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State Components of Population Change
-15,000
-5,000
5,000
15,000
25,000
35,000
45,000
55,000
1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028
Residual Migration Natural Increase
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State Annual Growth Rates: Non-Ag Payroll Employment
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
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Annual Growth Rates: Wasatch Front Employment 1980 - 2030
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Agriculture Mining Construction Manufacturing TCPU Trade
FIRE Services Government NFP Total
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Industry Employment as a Share of Total WF Employment
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Trade
Government
Services
Manufacturing
NFP
TCPU
Construction
FIRE
Mining
Agriculture
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Location Quotients: WF Relative to US 1980 - 2030
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
TCPU
NFP
Construction
FIRE
Government
Trade
Services
Manufacturing
Mining
Agriculture
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Region’s Share of State Population
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Wasatch Front MCD
Mountainland MCD
Bear River MCD
Southwest MCD
Central MCD
Southeast MCD
Uintah Basin MCD
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Region’s Hachman Index Relative to the Nation
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Wasatch Front MCD Mountainland MCD Bear River MCD Southwest MCD
Central MCD Uintah Basin MCD Southeast MCD
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-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1999 2009 2019 2029
Southwest MCD
Mountainland MCD
Wasatch Front MCD
Bear River MCD
Central MCD
Uintah Basin MCD
Southeast MCD
Region’s Population Growth Rate From Base (1998) Year
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Fertility Assumption
• Hold fertility constant at 1998 rates
• 1998 rate for Utah was 2.6
• 1998 rate for the U.S. was 2.0
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Historical and Projected Total Fertility Rates for Utah and the U.S.
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1917 1927 1937 1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047
US UTAH
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Survival Assumption
• Maintain mean difference in life expectancy observed in 1970, 1980, and 1990 over projection interval.
• The projected US series is Census middle series.
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Life Expectancy at Birth: Utah vs. US
65
70
75
80
85
90
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Utah Male U.S.Male Utah Female U.S.Female
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Labor Force Participation Rate Assumption
• Maintain relative differences with US projected series.
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Utah Labor Force Participation Rates by Age Group: 1990 & 2020 Medium LFPR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
16-17
18-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-61
62-64
65-69
70-74
75+
Male 1990 Male 2020 Female 1990 Female 2020
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Labor Force Participation Rates by Age Group: 1990 For Utah & US
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
16-17
18-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-61
62-64
65-69
70-74
75+
Utah Male US Male Utah Female US Female
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Labor Force Participation Rates by Age Group: 2020 for Utah & US
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
16-17
18-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-61
62-64
65-69
70-74
75+
Utah Male US Male Utah Female US Female
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Utah & US Births: 1930-1998
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
US Utah
US Baby Boom:
1946-1964
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250,000 150,000 50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+ Male Female
250,000 150,000 50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000
0- 4
5- 9
14-O ct
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+Male Female
Utah: 1990 Base Case: 2050
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Utah Dependency Ratios: 1970 - 2050
7666 67
55 54 54 54 55 56
1413 16
14 14 19 24 25 28
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
<18 DR 65+ DR9079 80 8482
70 6873 77
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US Dependency Ratios: 1970 - 2050
6146 42 42 39 40 43 43 44
18
19 20 21 2128
36 37 36
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
<18 DR 65+ DR79
6580 80
62 63 6068
79