UNESCOUNESCO--IHPIHP

GRAPHICGRAPHICGroundwater Resources Assessment

under the Pressures

of Humanity and Climate Change

OutlineOutline

UNESCOUNESCO--IHP VII and GRAPHIC IHP VII and GRAPHIC GRAPHIC GRAPHIC –– whatwhat’’s it all about?s it all about?Subjects and MethodsSubjects and MethodsGRAPHIC Regions & Case StudiesGRAPHIC Regions & Case StudiesOther UNESCOOther UNESCO--IHP initiatives of interestIHP initiatives of interest

International Hydrological International Hydrological ProgrammeProgramme

The only global intergovernmental scientific The only global intergovernmental scientific programmeprogrammeon water resources in the UN systemon water resources in the UN systemCreated in 1975 after the International Hydrological Created in 1975 after the International Hydrological DecadeDecade6 year phases, unifying theme 6 year phases, unifying theme Member States define needs and plans of phases Member States define needs and plans of phases Growing emphasis on management and social aspectsGrowing emphasis on management and social aspects

IHP VII (2008IHP VII (2008--2013)2013)

Water dependencies: Systems under Stress and Water dependencies: Systems under Stress and Societal ResponsesSocietal Responses5 Themes, 22 Focal Areas5 Themes, 22 Focal AreasTheme 1: Adapting to the impacts of global changes on Theme 1: Adapting to the impacts of global changes on river basins and aquifer systemsriver basins and aquifer systemsFocal Area 1.4: Managing groundwater systemFocal Area 1.4: Managing groundwater system’’s s response to global changes response to global changes GRAPHICGRAPHIC

Groundwater is an extremely important natural resource as a primary source for agriculture, domestic, and industrial water supplies in many countries.

Groundwater resources are under threat by climate change and coupled human activities

Urgent need to improve our knowledge on how groundwater resources might react to these impacts

Identify indicators of climate change impacts on groundwater resources and to evaluate tools and methods that could contribute to adaptation measures

GRAPHIC GRAPHIC –– whatwhat’’s it all about?s it all about?

Vision

GRAPHIC promotes and advances sustainable groundwater management in the face of climate change and linked human impacts.

MissionGRAPHIC provides a platform for exchange of information through

case studies, thematic working groups, research, and communication.GRAPHIC serves the global community through providing

scientifically-based recommendations that are policy relevant.GRAPHIC uses regional and global networks to improve capacity to

manage groundwater resources.

GRAPHIC Vision and MissionGRAPHIC Vision and Mission

GRAPHIC is a global network of scientists aimed at bringing scientists together (from different countries,

different scientific disciplines)conduct case studies, covering a wide range of subjects,

scientific methods, and geographical and climatic settingsderive policy-relevant recommendations from scientific

findings and communicate them to decision makersOrganize meetings, sessions at conferences and congresses

and training coursesPublications

GRAPHIC GRAPHIC –– how does it work?how does it work?

SubjectsSubjects and and MethodsMethodsMultidisciplinaryMultidisciplinary scientificscientific approachapproachSubjectsSubjects::

GW GW QuantityQuantityGW GW QualityQuality, , geochemicalgeochemical indicatorsindicators of of climateclimate and and linkedlinked human human impactsimpactsPaleoPaleo--IndicatorsIndicators of of environmentalenvironmental changeschangesManagement and Management and PolicyPolicy

MethodsMethodsGeophysicalGeophysical MethodsMethodsRemoteRemote SensingSensingDatabase and Information SystemsDatabase and Information SystemsSimulation and Simulation and ModelingModeling

Subjects and MethodsSubjects and MethodsGRAPHIC Framework GRAPHIC Framework DocumentDocument

GRAPHIC GRAPHIC –– Latin Latin AmericaAmerica & & CaribbeanCaribbean

GRAPHIC GRAPHIC –– AsiaAsia & Pacific & Pacific

GRAPHIC GRAPHIC –– AfricaAfrica

GRAPHIC GRAPHIC –– Europe Europe

GRAPHIC GRAPHIC –– NorthNorth AmericaAmerica

RegionalRegional componentscomponents ofof GRAPHICGRAPHIC

GRAPHIC Case Studies

New GRAPHIC case New GRAPHIC case studiesstudies??

Impact Assessment of Combined Climate and Management Scenarios on Groundwater Resources. Application to the Inca-Sa Pobla Hydrogeological Unit and associated wetland (Majorca, Spain)

MAJORCA ISLANDMAJORCA ISLAND

Prof. Lucila Candela

Dep. de Ingenieria del Terreno

Universidad Politécnica de Catalunya

GROUNDWATER BALANCEGROUNDWATER BALANCE--MAJORCAMAJORCA((hmhm33//yearyear))

NET INFILTRATION BY PRECIPITATION 305.4

IRRIGATION LOSSES 21.9

WASTE WATER LOSSES 9.6

SUPPLY SYSTEM LOSSES 12.7

SURFACE WATER RECHARGE 24.5

SEA WATER INTRUSION 22.3

DOMESTIC SUPPLY 83.1

IRRIGATION 136.1

TO SEA 128.3

Mal

lorc

a SPRING AND STREAMS 49.3

MODELLING & SCENARIOS METHODOLOGYMODELLING & SCENARIOS METHODOLOGY

Groundwater Model(Visual Modflow)

Recharge estimation(Visual Balan)

Input Parameter(Bibliography & data

collection)

Calibration: 1986-03Validation: 2003-2005

Future scenarios

Climatic scenarios

Management scenarios

Impermeable boundary

Springs

Irrigated area

Supply wells

INCA BASIN

SA POBLA BASIN

SEA

Wetland

Alcudia wells

Palma wells

FSSJ springs

IrrigatedIrrigated areaarea: 4800 ha: 4800 ha

SupplySupply wellswells::

-- LlubiLlubi--Muro Muro wellswells

-- Alcudia Alcudia wellswells

IrrigationIrrigation wellswells

4 4 layerslayers

Visual MODFLOWVisual MODFLOW

MathematicalMathematical ModelModel (II)(II)INCA INCA –– SA POBLA HYDROLOGIC UNITSA POBLA HYDROLOGIC UNIT

Estimation of water Recharge from Estimation of water Recharge from precipitation and irrigationprecipitation and irrigationreturnreturn

Daily water Balance in the soil and Daily water Balance in the soil and unsaturated zone (visual unsaturated zone (visual BalanBalan))

Calibration based on Calibration based on piezometricpiezometriclevellevel

14 different recharge areas based 14 different recharge areas based on spatial rainfall distribution, land on spatial rainfall distribution, land use and soiluse and soil--type.type.

SOIL WATER BALANCE (RECHARGE) SOIL WATER BALANCE (RECHARGE) INCA INCA –– SA POBLA HYDROLOGIC UNITSA POBLA HYDROLOGIC UNIT

Climatic Scenarios (HadCM3, IPCC, 2001)Climatic Scenarios (HadCM3, IPCC, 2001)A2A2B2B2

Simulated time slice 2025Simulated time slice 2025Management ScenariosManagement Scenarios

Changes of water supply (present, increase, decrease)Changes of water supply (present, increase, decrease)Changes of Irrigated Agriculture (present, increase, Changes of Irrigated Agriculture (present, increase, decrease)decrease)

Combination of management and climatic scenariosCombination of management and climatic scenarios

OBJECTIVE: OBJECTIVE: WetlandWetland impactsimpacts

Llubí-wells (Supply) (1.0-1.3)

Sa Pobla Agri (0.8-1.0)

Springs

Alcudia wells (Supply) (0.9-1.1)

INCA BASIN

SA POBLA BASIN

SEA

Wetland

Inca Agri

(0.6-1.0)

Albufera Agri

(0.8-1.0) Whatmanagementmeasures are more effective?

(Springs (Springs impactimpact II) II)

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

To avoid the partial or complete disappearance of S’Albuferawetland under climate change it is necessary to decrease groundwater abstraction, as well as the reallocation of the agricultural pumping wells.

Sensitivity analysis has allowed the identification of the most effective management actions to control spring discharges to theS’Albufera wetland. The results allow quantifying the technical advantages of the management options to be put alongside socio-economic criterion for decision making.

The obtained uncertainties in spring discharges are quantified giving a range of confidence in the model predictions and consequently in water planning measures implication.

Impacts of climate change on a coastal groundwater Impacts of climate change on a coastal groundwater system in The Netherlandssystem in The Netherlands

AnthropogenicAnthropogenic processesprocesses and and climateclimate changechange

Gualbert Oude Essink, Esther van Baaren, Perry de LouwSubsurface and Groundwater SystemsDeltares

A (Dutch) groundwater system under stressA (Dutch) groundwater system under stress

Let us make a numeric model of these concepts

Model input (3/5): initial salinity distributionModel input (3/5): initial salinity distribution

Very important input for swi models, but diffic

ult to obtain!

Model input (4/5): land subsidenceModel input (4/5): land subsidence

KNMI’06 W+2100

Model input (5/5): Change in groundwater rechargeModel input (5/5): Change in groundwater recharge

backwatereffect

Zone of influence is limited!

Zone of influence of sea level riseZone of influence of sea level rise

Past reclamation of polders will dominate

future salinisation of coastal groundwater system

Zone of Zone of influnceinflunce SLR:SLR:Zone of influence of sea level rise is rather limited, due to geZone of influence of sea level rise is rather limited, due to geological ological ‘‘shortcutsshortcuts’’

Salt load to surface water:Salt load to surface water:Past reclamation of polders will dominate future Past reclamation of polders will dominate future salinisationsalinisation and freshening of and freshening of coastal groundwater systemcoastal groundwater system

Future plans:Future plans:Assess the (Assess the (un)feasibilityun)feasibility of regional measures to stop of regional measures to stop salinisationsalinisationIncorporate local processes into regional models, such as preferIncorporate local processes into regional models, such as preferential saline ential saline seepage through boilsseepage through boils

Article in Water Resources Research (from half Article in Water Resources Research (from half octoct. 2010):. 2010):Oude Essink, G.H.P., Oude Essink, G.H.P., BaarenBaaren, E.S., van, De , E.S., van, De LouwLouw, P.G.B., Effects of climate change on coastal, P.G.B., Effects of climate change on coastalgroundwater systems: a groundwater systems: a modelingmodeling study in the Netherlandsstudy in the Netherlands

MainMain conclusionsconclusions

Role of Groundwater in adaptation to the Role of Groundwater in adaptation to the impacts of climate change?impacts of climate change?

- world’s largest accessible store of freshwater

However…

…… it is not yet sufficiently taken into considerationit is not yet sufficiently taken into consideration

“groundwater is the major source of drinking water across much of the world… but there has been very little research on the potential effects of climate change”.

Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in both their 3rd (2001) and 4th (2007) Assessment Reports

GRAPHIC Side Event on Groundwater and GRAPHIC Side Event on Groundwater and Climate at the WCCClimate at the WCC--3 (Sept 2009)3 (Sept 2009)

(1) to formally consider groundwater in both the generation and the use of climate information in order to inform adaptation and to improve climate prediction; and

(2) to initiate dialogue between groundwater and climate scientists at the global level. The latter is expected to lead to improved consideration of groundwater in climate adaptation and

GRAPHIC international group of experts and GRAPHIC international group of experts and partnershipspartnerships

Partners:Geological Surveys (TNO, USGS, BGR, GSI), USDA, UCI, NASA, RIHN, IGRAC, IAH-Commission on GW&C, Universities, WWAP, UNU-EHS, UNECE and others

Linkages with other UNESCO-IHP projects and programmes (ISARM, GWES, G-WADI and others)

GRAPHIC recent activitiesGRAPHIC recent activities

Training course and Workshop on Training course and Workshop on Methods for the study of longMethods for the study of long��term term groundwater dynamicsgroundwater dynamics (Nov 1(Nov 1��5, 2010, 5, 2010, TozeurTozeur, Tunisia), Tunisia)

Lectures and training on stable isotopes, noble gases and radiocLectures and training on stable isotopes, noble gases and radiocarbon arbon dating of groundwater, and application of GRACE (remote sensing dating of groundwater, and application of GRACE (remote sensing technology to detect changes in groundwater storage)technology to detect changes in groundwater storage)

Participants from Tunisia, Morocco, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, EgypParticipants from Tunisia, Morocco, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Egypt, Benint, Benin

International Symposium on "Groundwater as a key for adaptation International Symposium on "Groundwater as a key for adaptation to to changing climate and societychanging climate and society““ and GRAPHIC expert group meeting, and GRAPHIC expert group meeting, Nov 14Nov 14--16, Kyoto, Japan)16, Kyoto, Japan)

Next stepsNext stepsXXV IUGG General Assembly XXV IUGG General Assembly Earth on the Edge: Science Earth on the Edge: Science for a Sustainable Planetfor a Sustainable Planet, 28 June , 28 June -- 7 July 2011, 7 July 2011, Melbourne, AustraliaMelbourne, AustraliaGRAPHIC Conference, Latin America and the CaribbeanGRAPHIC Conference, Latin America and the CaribbeanTraining course Groundwater Dynamics, China, Sept Training course Groundwater Dynamics, China, Sept 20112011The Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater The Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Resources with special reference to Hard rock Terrain. Resources with special reference to Hard rock Terrain. IGWC 2011 IGWC 2011 -- 4th International Groundwater Conference, 4th International Groundwater Conference, Madurai, INDIA. 27Madurai, INDIA. 27--30 Sept 2011 30 Sept 2011