Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Minnesota: 1970-2006

Peter CiborowskiAnne Claflin

October 2009

Legislative Request The Next Generation Energy Act established the

following GHG reduction goals: 15 % reduction from 2005 levels by 2015; 30 % reduction by 2025; and 80 % reduction by 2050.

The MPCA is obligated to report on statewide progress toward these GHG reduction goals. Annual legislative proposal Biennial Reduction Progress Report

The request included some specifications, such as estimating electricity imported to service Minnesota demand and separate tracking of emissions or sequestration associated with biomass

(Minn. Stat. § 216H)

Progress Towards Goal

Progress Towards GoalTracking Progress on Minnesota GHG Emissions

100,000,000

106,000,000

112,000,000

118,000,000

124,000,000

130,000,000

136,000,000

142,000,000

148,000,000

154,000,000

160,000,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

year

CO

2-e

qu

iva

len

t to

ns

Historical emissions

Needed emissions trajectory to meetgoals of Minn. Stat. § 216H.022007 estimate

2008 guess

2007 estimate

2008 guess (2.8%

Rules Principles:

the long record of emissions covering periods of years to decades; a consistent time series of estimates; best international and US practices; high level of data disaggregation; and timeliness.

Geographical boundaries, except: net electricity imports aviation

Recalculation of previous and baseline year estimates as methods change Limitations in protocols and available data

Downstream (combustion of fossil fuels and other noncombustion emissions)

Direct (physically occur at a facility)

Separately track biogenic emissions and sequestration

Emissions by Sector

Emissions by Activity

Energy Consumption by Fuel

Emissions from Electric Power Generation

Energy Use: Percent Fossil Fuel

Emissions from Transportation

Forestry

Indicators

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Minnesota Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Emissions Intensity, and Economy

Real Gross State Product

GHG Emissions

GHG Emissions Intensity

Year

Facto

r In

cre

ase

(1970=

1)

Indicators

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

Indicators of Greenhouse Gas Emission Intensity

Greenhouse Gaseslb GHGs/ $ real Gross State ProductTons GHGs/Capita

Year

Facto

r In

cre

ase (

19

70

=1

)

Indicators

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

0.5

0.8

1.0

1.3

1.5

1.8

2.0

2.3

2.5

Trends in Light-Duty Vehicle Numbers, Operation and Emissions

GHGs

VMT

btu of refined petroleum fuel/mile

Year

Facto

r In

cre

ase (

1970=

1)

Next Steps…

EPA Actions• Mandatory GHG Reporting Rule

• Proposed Prevention of Significant Deterioration and Title V Greenhouse Gas Tailoring Rule

• Proposed Rulemaking: Light-duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards

• Proposed Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under the Clean Air Act

• Waxman/Markey and Kerry/Boxer

Full Report Available:

Climate Change page: http://www.pca.state.mn.us/climatechange/

Legislative Reports page http://www.pca.state.mn.us/hot/legislature/reports/index.html