Gro

und

Rel

ated

Hou

sing

D

eman

d/Su

pply

Ana

lysi

s

Pre

sent

atio

n to

Tow

n of

M

arkh

am D

evel

opm

ent

Ser

vice

s C

omm

ittee

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l Bot

tom

ley

May

8, 2

012

Ove

rvie

w

Sta

ff un

derto

ok a

n up

date

d re

side

ntia

l dem

and/

supp

ly

anal

ysis

for g

roun

d-re

late

d un

its in

the

Reg

ion

(sin

gles

, se

mis

, row

s)

Ana

lysi

s co

nclu

des

that

ther

e is

an

appr

oxim

ate

10 to

12

year

rem

aini

ng s

uppl

y of

gro

und-

rela

ted

units

(not

incl

udin

g R

OP

A’s

1, 2

and

3)

Sup

ply

is a

s lit

tle a

s 5

-6 y

ears

in S

outh

ern

Yor

k

Ris

k of

sho

rtage

of g

roun

d-re

late

d un

its in

as

little

as

5 ye

ars

time

Pro

mpt

det

aile

d pl

anni

ng fo

r New

Com

mun

ity A

reas

(R

OP

A’s

1,2

, and

3) i

s ne

eded

Pla

nnin

g an

d E

cono

mic

Dev

elop

men

t Com

mitt

ee, A

pril

4, 2

012

Slid

e 3

Key

par

t of p

lann

ing

Use

d to

det

erm

ine

year

s of

sup

ply

avai

labl

e an

d R

OP

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an A

rea

Exp

ansi

on R

equi

rem

ents

Req

uire

d an

ade

quat

e su

pply

to

acco

mm

odat

e an

d m

anag

e gr

owth

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t to

serv

icin

g de

cisi

ons

and

deve

lopm

ent c

harg

es re

venu

e st

ream

Car

eful

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itorin

g re

quire

d of

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ldin

g P

erm

its a

nd a

ppro

vals

Res

iden

tial L

and

Sup

ply

Slid

e 4

RO

P a

nd P

rovi

ncia

l Pol

icy

Sta

tem

ent r

equi

rem

ents

10 y

ear s

uppl

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iden

tial

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igna

tions

3-7

year

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ply

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ondo

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ap

prov

als

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icy

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et

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nnin

g an

d E

cono

mic

Dev

elop

men

t Com

mitt

ee, A

pril

4, 2

012

Slid

e 5

Two

Hou

sing

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e M

arke

ts in

Yor

k R

egio

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roun

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late

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nits

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emis

, Row

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partm

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nits

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o di

ffere

nt

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and/

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ly

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acte

ristic

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twee

n th

e S

outh

ern

and

Nor

ther

n A

reas

of Y

ork

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ion

Two

Mar

kets

Pla

nnin

g an

d E

cono

mic

Dev

elop

men

t Com

mitt

ee, A

pril

4, 2

012

Slid

e 6

Incl

udes

Gro

und-

rela

ted

units

with

in:

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iona

l and

loca

l Offi

cial

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n am

endm

ents

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divi

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dom

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nd s

ite p

lans

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lude

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quat

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inte

nsifi

catio

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eas

Res

iden

tial L

and

Sup

ply

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nnin

g an

d E

cono

mic

Dev

elop

men

t Com

mitt

ee, A

pril

4, 2

012

Slid

e 7

Dem

and

can

be c

alcu

late

d ba

sed

on:

Rec

ent h

ousi

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ompl

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n da

ta

Fore

cast

hou

sing

uni

t dem

and

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iden

tial D

eman

d

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nnin

g an

d E

cono

mic

Dev

elop

men

t Com

mitt

ee, A

pril

4, 2

012

Slid

e 8

Pla

nnin

g an

d E

cono

mic

Dev

elop

men

t Com

mitt

ee, A

pril

4, 2

012

New

Com

mun

ity A

reas

Slid

e 9

Est

imat

ed R

emai

ning

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igna

ted

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und-

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sing

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ply

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id Y

ear 2

011

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icip

ality

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tsSh

are

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willi

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ffville

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ork

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ion

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0%

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nnin

g an

d E

cono

mic

Dev

elop

men

t Com

mitt

ee, A

pril

4, 2

012

Slid

e 10

Pro

ject

ed A

nnua

l Abs

orpt

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for

G

roun

d-R

elat

ed U

nits

His

toric

Hou

sing

Com

plet

ions

Fore

cast

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and

Mun

icip

ality

Aver

age

Annu

al 2

002-

2011

120

11-2

016

Aver

age

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al U

nits

2

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4Ea

st G

willi

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755

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nnin

g an

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cono

mic

Dev

elop

men

t Com

mitt

ee, A

pril

4, 2

012

Not

es:

1. H

isto

ric H

ousi

ng C

ompl

etio

ns m

etho

d ba

sed

on a

vera

ge a

nnua

l gro

und-

rela

ted

h

ousi

ng c

ompl

etio

ns fr

om 2

002

to 2

011.

2. F

orec

ast D

eman

d m

etho

d ba

sed

on a

vera

ge a

nnua

l gro

und-

rela

ted

units

fore

cast

u

sed

as th

e ba

sis

for t

he Y

ork

Reg

ion

Offi

cial

Pla

n fo

reca

st.

Slid

e 11

Yea

rs o

f Rem

aini

ng

Gro

und-

Rel

ated

Hou

sing

Sup

ply

His

toric

Hou

sing

Com

plet

ions

Fore

cast

Dem

and

Mun

icip

ality

Pla

nnin

g an

d E

cono

mic

Dev

elop

men

t Com

mitt

ee, A

pril

4, 2

012

Aver

age

Annu

al 2

002-

2011

2011

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6 Av

erag

e An

nual

Uni

tsAu

rora

8.8

8.9

East

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illim

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rgin

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t6.

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ichm

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tchu

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ffville

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l9.

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Slid

e 12

Com

paris

on o

f Yor

k R

egio

n H

ousi

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ix

2006

to 2

011

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k R

egio

n S

hare

of H

ousi

ng

Com

plet

ions

by

Type

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und

Rel

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tmen

ts

2011

to 2

031

- Yor

k R

egio

n Fo

reca

st S

hare

of

Hous

ing

Com

plet

ions

by

Type

42%

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und

Rel

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tmen

ts

Sour

ce: C

MH

C H

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ng C

ompl

etio

ns a

nd Y

ork

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ion

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cast

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nnin

g an

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cono

mic

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elop

men

t Com

mitt

ee, A

pril

4, 2

012

Slid

e 13

Nor

th S

outh

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ply

Ther

e ar

e si

gnifi

cant

diff

eren

ces

in d

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d an

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pply

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d un

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the

Sou

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Reg

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Sou

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kham

, Ric

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ill a

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augh

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ther

n Y

ork

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ion

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New

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toric

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and

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Pla

nnin

g an

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cono

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Dev

elop

men

t Com

mitt

ee, A

pril

4, 2

012

Slid

e 14

RO

PA

’s 1

, 2 &

3 h

ave

not b

een

incl

uded

in

Sup

ply

(2,5

00 H

a)

Thes

e la

nds

are

requ

ired

to a

ccom

mod

ate

grow

th to

203

1

Com

plet

ion

of a

ll ap

prov

als

for t

hese

land

s ca

n ta

ke 5

-8 y

ears

Pla

nnin

g P

roce

ss fo

r New

Lan

ds

Pla

nnin

g an

d E

cono

mic

Dev

elop

men

t Com

mitt

ee, A

pril

4, 2

012

Slid

e 15

10-1

2 ye

ar s

uppl

y ac

ross

the

Reg

ion

Onl

y 6-

10 y

ear s

uppl

y in

Sou

ther

n Y

ork

Reg

ion

Pot

entia

l ris

k of

sho

rtage

of l

and

for g

roun

d-re

late

d ho

usin

g

Nee

d to

con

tinue

loca

l pla

nnin

g fo

r sec

onda

ry

plan

sP

lann

ing

for n

ew c

omm

uniti

es c

an ta

ke 5

to 8

yea

rs

Nee

d to

car

eful

ly m

onito

r sup

ply

and

dem

and

fluct

uatio

ns b

y lo

cal m

unic

ipal

ity

Res

iden

tial s

uppl

y ca

n ha

ve D

C re

venu

e im

plic

atio

ns

Con

clus

ions

Pla

nnin

g an

d E

cono

mic

Dev

elop

men

t Com

mitt

ee, A

pril

4, 2

012