group 8_scenario report
TRANSCRIPT
The Hospitality Industry: Global Renewable Energy Investment and Governance
Albany Jacobson Eckert (SNRE), Chase Stone (SNRE), Nalin Bhatia (SNRE)
NRE 513 – Scenario Planning
10/13/16
Liberation
Shore
Twitch
1
Introduction:
Among the largest global hotel chains, the top-5 most valuable brands, Hilton, Marriot,
Hyatt, Sheraton, and the Holiday Inn are worth between $2 billion and over $7 billion dollars in
20151. The most valuable firms in the industry seek to broaden sustainability commitments to
offset potential financial losses in the short and long-term from unsound investments in the face
of environmental uncertainty. As Stephen P. Holms, CEO of Wyndham Worldwide (see
Appendix D) stated in last year’s Wyndham Sustainability Report, “recognizing the emerging
global challenges such as climate change, water and natural resources scarcity, our future
sustainability focus will be aimed at reducing our carbon footprint and water usage by 20 percent
by 2020.” In terms of Holms’ and industry-wide interest in reducing carbon footprint in
particular, switching to renewable energy is a priority for the hospitality industry, as the average
annual carbon emissions for a single floor of a hotel is 160 to 200kg per square meter2. The
majority of energy used in hotels is typically for space heating, hot water production, air
conditioning, and lighting (see Appendix E for “Barbados”) – however, the hospitality industry
itself is significant holder of land area, making space available for potential renewable solutions,
where solar appears as both a popular investment technology and future financial strategy.
Imagining the amount of land area that could be utilized by the hospitality industry in the
U.S. lodging industry alone is vast and immeasurable – in 2015, U.S. hotels occupied 52,432
properties and 4.9 million rooms3. The increasing amount of resources needed to maintain a
growing hospitality industry, both domestically and globally, therefore demand the following
three scenarios based on key factors below: Scenario 1: “Shore “, Scenario 2: “Liberation “,
Scenario 3: “Twitch.” The following scenarios imagine how key factors, within an uncertain
political landscape shape, future investment in renewable energy in the hospitality industry.
2
Key Factors:
The energy market of the hospitality sector is driven by multiple factors primarily
because this industry has a 24-hour energy consumption, is predominantly consumer-demand
driven, includes multiple technical installations and involves a variety of investor groups,
environmentalists, government agencies etc. Below are the identified key driving factors across
different domains:
Identification of Drivers:
Based on research and analysis of these “key factors,” the first driving factor identified is
renewable investments due to the cheap fossil fuel prices, high infrastructural costs of
renewable technology and high luxury demands of the hospitality industry, it cannot be said with
certainty that developers will be willing to invest in renewables in the near future. The second
driving factor identified is government involvement since government plays a key role policy
planning which in turn influences the subsidies. Since policies are quite volatile and depend on a
number of socio-economic, political as well as environmental factors, government’s role is also a
highly uncertain factor and the magnitude of its involvement could change drastically change
markets.
Key Factors
Technological:
Building energy management
High rise construction
Renewable investment
Technology financing.
Political:
Government Involvement
Environmental compliance codes
Social:
Urbanization
Population densities
Travel frequencies
Customer segment transformatitons
Environmental:
Climate change,
Coastal conditions
Forest cover
Ground water levels
GHG levels
3
Matrix:
More Govt.
Involvement
Less Govt.
Involvement
Less Renewable
Investment
• Loose compliance
• Cheaper energy prices
• No incentives and subsidies
• Policy inconsistency
• Policy uncertainty
• Governments less influenced by large companies.
• Less arcane taxes
• Less red tape
More Renewable
Investment
• Relatively cheaper prices of fossil fuels and availability
• Lack of available renewable energy technology for implementation within the 10-year period
• Lack of available financing and capital to acquire scalable renewable energy technologies (i.e. solar)
• Fundamental changes in the traditional customer segment causing market transformations over the 50-year period.
• More active government
• Concerns about tourism
• Climate change and geography
• Climate change severity
• Safety of constituents
• Tourists' concerns about
environment
Liberation Shore
Twitch
4
Scenario 1: “Shore” – More renewable investment, more government involvement.
For this scenario, we have to step back and consider whether government regulations
cause firms to build sustainable hotels or the other way around. It is true that social attitudes push
lawmakers to draft environmental legislation, but the consequences for not writing
environmentally friendly laws in response to growing concerns are much less harsh than the
penalties hotels would face if they disregarded legal obligations. Therefore, in this scenario, the
pressure would flow one way from the government to the hotels.
We have to take another step back and wonder why the government is now heavily
involved in creating green laws. Could it be due to the higher number of environmentally
conscious lawmakers? Even though that is possible, pumping out environmentally friendly
regulation does not seem like a priority for lawmaking bodies as much as economic/tax-related
laws. A quick look on www.Govtrack.us4 shows that in the current congressional session, 300
bills related to “Environmental Protection” have been introduced in Congress. For “Taxation”
alone, just over 1,000 bills have been introduced. In other categories like “Finance and Financial
Sector” and “Foreign Trade and International Finance,” 451 and 135 bills, respectively, have
been introduced. Therefore, it does not seem reasonable that lawmaking bodies would be
motivated by concern for the environment in passing strict laws.
However, there is one case where lawmakers would prioritize environmental protection:
if their constituents have already been feeling the effects of climate change. For widespread and
serious damage caused by climate change, lawmakers would jump to cut the cord on
irresponsible projects and make way for greener laws. It’s true that there are other reasons to opt
for sustainable choices, such as investing in American-made energy to improve the local
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economy or to sanction a political rival. But, we feel that the first option is much more realistic,
seeing that some regions are actually starting to see the effects of climate change56.
Therefore, government officials would be drafting environmental laws for safety reasons
– for the need to build climate-resilient communities and invest in cleaner energy for the sake of
future generations. The communities that would be most affected by climate change in the near
future are coastal communities. In fact, severe storms and rising sea levels are already a
challenge and governments are scrambling to ensure that their coastal cities are well protected
through laws7.
Another thing to consider about coastal cities is that while they are starting to see severe
effects of climate change, they also tend to be popular vacation destinations. Hotels in coastal
cities are under exceptional pressure to become climate-ready and sustainable at the same time.
Therefore, in this scenario, we will look through the lens of a coastal city, which has already
started to see rising sea levels and stronger storms. Not wanting to deter tourists with images of
irresponsibility, city officials unanimously pass a law demanding 100% renewable energy within
15 years8.
To attract tourists, hotels advertise themselves as environmentally friendly and begin
using renewable energy if they have not already. Wise energy choices for coastal hotels include
solar panels, windmills, and water-driven pumps. Some windmills may be located offshore to
maximize energy intake. Another crucial consideration is energy usage and conservation for
power outages. Since climate change-caused weather is real and unstoppable, power outages are
a certainty. Heavy storms sometimes keep the lights off for days. Hotels, especially coastal
hotels, need storage space for emergency energy. How far down the road is the right technology
and laws needed to protect coastal hotels?
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Shore: 10-year period (2016 – 2026)
Between 2026 and 2065, climate change-related weather is expected to affect coastal
cities heavily. Flooding will be more frequent and billions of dollars will be spent on fixing
infrastructure. The world population will hit 9 billion by 2050. Over a billion people today are
living near coasts and that number will increase in the coming years, yielding dramatic impact
from storms and flooding.
In a world with increased government regulations, the effects are predicted to be more
severe and more directly affecting the global economy. Governments put pressure on energy
firms to produce 100% renewable products within five years of signing. In addition, presidents
and prime ministers mandate that their countries be “climate-ready,” meaning building
flood/storm/weather-resistant infrastructure. These projects cost billions of dollars and hundreds
of hours of manual labor.
Would it be worth it to take a trip to the Bahamas if they still haven’t recovered from
their last storm? Governments recognize the value of improved infrastructure and energy on
tourism, especially for countries where most of the income is from tourism. The sooner the better
when it comes to climate-ready buildings and the only way to make it sooner is to pass laws with
heavy penalties.
Shore: 50-year period (2016 -2026)
In contrast to the ten-year prognostication, 50 years down the road looks optimistic. With
heavy penalties in place and new energy discoveries established, there is no time to waste with
implementing sustainable structures. Hotels and cities are climate-ready and resilient with flood
protection and energy storage in case of blackouts. Admittedly, floods and storms are still severe,
but cities are more prepared than ever.
7
What happens to the tourism industry in coastal cities? In spite of a rough first 50 years,
hotels have bounced back with ready-made storm protection and renewables integrated into their
system. Tourists on open ocean trips find themselves gazing in awe at the power of the giant
windmills. Old-fashioned hotels and taverns in New Orleans power themselves with watermills
on the side. Spring breakers in Miami Beach can no longer access the solar panel-inundated
roofs. Instead, they find solace in the geothermal-heated hot tubs.
Scenario 2: Liberation – More renewable investment, less government involvement.
“Liberation” which literally means freedom from limits or liabilities refers to the freedom
from or relaxation of compliances on developers and companies in the context of the hospitality
industry due to less government involvement. This scenario involves a situation where there is an
increased trend of renewable investment but less or mild government control. Such a scenario
could have both positive as well as negative implications on the market as well as the
environment. Since government is a key player in implementing policies, levying taxes and
providing subsidies, the amount and type of government influence in renewable energy
investment could considerably impact the hotel/hospitality energy sector. Here we look at how
the above driving factors could impact our sector at 10 and then 50 years into the future.
Liberation: 10-year period (2016-2026)
Except for a few European countries, renewable energy investment is still in a dormant
stage and is mostly focused on solar energy9. Except for a few large chains, most hotel
developers currently are still not fully motivated to make initial investment accompanying
renewable power primarily due to concerns about the payback time and fear of compromising on
luxury, thereby, losing guests. Loose government control in the upcoming decade could result in
the abandonment of renewables altogether as the existent dominant trend still lies with fossil
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fuels. As renewable investment depreciates over time due to loose government check, fossil fuels
share will rise incrementally and we could witness a return to the traditional paradigm. With
fossil fuels becoming scarce over time, rise in fuel and energy costs are inevitable. These rising
costs plus the costs to curb the environmental damage cause would shoot up hotel tariffs thereby
considerably flattening the demand curve and affecting businesses.
The next important factor to consider here is the role of government policy in renewable
energy development. The GlobalData report, Europe Renewable Energy Policy Handbook
201510 defines the importance of role played by the government policies in shaping the
renewable technology infrastructure. Policy consistency also plays an important role here.
Sudden changes in policy could have severe consequences on the market such as the closure and
restructuring of a biodiesel plant in Norway due to a major bioenergy policy change causing a
huge blow to investments11. Loosening government control would mean less policy consistency
which could again damage the renewable investment market. Since the big industry players are
primarily driven by luxury and aesthetics, it will be all the more challenging with loose policies
to persuade developers into investing into renewables initially as their sole concern is the well-
being of the guests which they fear would be compromised or become costlier if they opt for
renewables. Less policy control would initially see a hike in the demand curve but will flatten
overtime as the energy prices rise.
Since the renewable energy trend as well as the technology development is still in its
dormancy, the sector is still dependent on generous government support12. Government
incentives in the coming decade are crucial to renewable energy development since renewable
energy is expensive because of high infrastructural investments involved in tapping the energy,
thereby, demotivating developers into investing in renewables. In the United States, renewables
9
like solar and wind are not as subsidized as fossil fuels which is the biggest obstacle to
investment in renewables as compared to Europe where has led to major breakthroughs in
renewable technology development13. In China, the enactment of the Renewable Energy Act
(REA) has led to a rapid development both in installed capacity and generating capacity in the
past few years14.
Therefore, less government involvement in the upcoming decade doesn’t point towards a
very favorable scenario due to inconsistency in policies and lack of subsidies ultimately breaking
apart the trend towards growth in renewable investment which could severely impact the demand
levels in hospitality business.
Liberation: 50-year period (2016-2066)
If renewable investments continue to grow at the current rate, it could very likely be the
status quo in the next 50 years. Solar power in the US grew by 6.2 gigawatts in 2014, a 30
percent increase over the previous year and representing nearly $18 billion in new investment15.
This growth could be further fueled by reduction in costs, technology development and
innovative business models.
Around 50 years into the future, renewable energy will be the trend and with majority of
the investments and markets associated with renewables, fossil fuels would have lost their
popularity with the developers. Green certification of buildings and increased popularity of
renewables could in a way become pretexts for brand imaging, with big players associated with
more renewables investment. As a result, most hotel chains will compete in terms of renewable
investments to market themselves as well as alter premiums.
10
An important factor to consider here is that government control on energy markets
although has benefits such as policy consistency and provision of incentives, it also has its own
cons. Prolonged funding can sometimes increase company’s dependency on subsidies and start
influencing the government to perpetuate their support when they are powerful enough. Also, the
government sometimes has a tendency to manage supply rather than create demand by investing
directly in private companies16. Less government involvement would although reduce subsidies,
it would not become much of a concern due to reduction in costs from innovation as well as the
popularity of renewables. As a result, renewable investments could in fact benefit from the perks
of reduced government involvement such as less arcane taxes, reduced energy prices, less red
tape and faster implementation. This would tremendously benefit the hotel real estate market by
boosting demand for new projects and also reducing premiums.
Scenario 3: Twitch – Less Government Involvement, Less Renewable Investment.
A “twitch” is a sudden, unexpected movement. In the context of the hospitality industry,
“twitch” is a response to “less governance” and “less renewable investment” over the course of
10 to 50 years, and beyond. The defining assumptions underlying “twitch” include the reversal of
contemporary regulatory approaches to renewables (i.e. Recovery Act of 2009), which allows for
the development of renewables, and secondly, the lack of long-term financial incentives for the
hospitality industry to invest in renewable energy. Since the ‘twitch’ is somewhat unexpected in
light of climate change, the hospitality industry’s viable options are within the status quo. The
four driving factors in “twitch” include: 1. Relatively cheaper prices of fossil fuels and
availability in comparison to renewable energy, 2. Lack of available renewable energy
technology for implementation within the 10-year period, 3. Lack of available financing and
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capital to acquire scalable renewable energy technologies (i.e. solar) and 4. Fundamental changes
in the traditional customer segment causing market transformations over the 50-year period.
Twitch: 10-Year period (2016-2026)
In the United States, governance on
renewables energy coupled with low cost of oil and
gas presents an uncertain challenge to the
hospitality industry to maintain sustainability
commitments (see Appendix A, D). The
uncertainty is illustrated by a recent International
Energy Outlook (IEO2016) released by the U.S.
Energy Information Administration, which
describes how global energy consumption will drive demand for more energy types (more
diverse portfolio) in emerging markets17, but require reliance on fossil fuels, which will account
for 78% of global energy use through 2040. Although the international properties held by
Marriot are far fewer outside of the United States, China is the third largest in terms of total
properties owned (2% of total) and second largest in terms of total rooms (28,256).
Internationally, hotel decision-makers want to maximize profit by reducing their investment in
expensive renewable energies, specifically in emerging markets where natural gas and other
fossil fuels (including coal) will still be the main source of energy (e.g. India, China). In terms of
investment, however, regardless of the location, practical barriers prevent hotel managers and
operators from integrating renewable energy: the main business is to fill rooms, physical
constraints exist, and large up-front capital is required to install equipment.
In the United States, The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 20091819
generated investments in $31 billion projects ranging from modernization of the electric grid,
Percent (%) of
Total Properties
NUMBER OF
PROPERTIES
TOTAL
ROOMSCOUNTRY
88.0% 3358 537,225 U.S.
2.0% 76 28,256 China
2.3% 86 16,741 Canada
1.7% 64 12,203United
Kingdom
1.9% 74 9,391 Spain
2.0% 76 8,029 South Africa
0.8% 29 6,717 Germany
0.7% 26 6,250 India
0.7% 25 5,984 Mexico
Total 3814 630,796 -
MARRIOT TOP MARKETS, 2014
1 Marriot, 2014 (see Appendix C)
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matching funding from the electric sector, and the creation of smart grids in the U.S. However,
enthusiasm from the Act was relatively short-lived. In late 2015, Patricia A. Hoffman (Assistant
Secretary, Office of Electricity Deliver and Energy Reliability) announced that The Act’s
program to spurt investment was complete. For the hospitality industry, the Act was one of the
only principle efforts to incentivize investment in renewable energy over the last 10-years
between 2005 and 2015 in the U.S.; without federal regulations in place, the hospitality industry
sees no path to invest in renewables – the lack of certainty in future regulation encourages
reliance on fossil fuels. The conservative the “wait-and-see” of lawmakers weighs considerably
on the minds of maverick executives who want to build renewable energy into the hospitality
industry today, with the promise of seeing returns tomorrow. The lack of ability to know makes
executives embrace conventional energy sources, keeping them in play during the 10 years and
beyond, both domestically and globally.
Twitch: The 50-Year Period (2016-2066)
Lacking momentum from regulatory incentives in the short-term, the renewable energy
investment within the U.S. lacks the ability to trulyy gain traction within the hospitality industry.
The time-lag between implementing technology for renewable energy and the benefit of
using it, is dependent on the investment today. Globally, investment in renewables is part-and-
parcel to the trends within emerging markets, such as Brazil, India, and China. These markets
will continue reliance on fossil fuels due to their affordability and lack of infrastructure. The
industry needs technologies built early in the beginning stages of new construction of hotels, if
renewable resources can be utilized in the long-term. The lack of investment in the shorter-term
has a “snowball effect” – the hospitality industry will only adapt itself marginally to the portfolio
of energy sources, which will be primarily comprised of fossil fuels. The “twitch” is elongated,
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no longer a compulsive movement away from progressive climate friendly investments, but sets
the industry into a non-renewable strategy altogether. This “twitch” is encouraged by shifts from
the current customer segment (primarily leisure and business) to a new paradigm.
Shift to Customer Segment
The current market segment for hotel guests breaks down to roughly 40% traveling for
business and 60% traveling for leisure. Leisure travelers account for nearly triple the amount of
spending overall, at roughly $660.3 billion. On the international scale, the U.S. share of all hotel
stays accounts for 14.2% of the world’s market, followed by Spain and France. The fundamental
shift to the hospitality industry in terms of market segment likely happens due to decreasing
business traveler customers and shifting practices in the traditional work environment. Today,
telecommuting and working remotely is now a component of 37% of US workdays20 and given
the ability to work effectively from remote locations, much of the business travel necessary for
operations will no longer occur. Instead, travel for leisure will become the majority of the market
segment within 10 years, as perhaps the “greenest” business traveler is one that does not travel at
all.
Within 50 years, given the significant rise of the leisure customer segment, the hospitality
industry appears more uncertain. Individuals with greater income will continue to travel,
particularly for longer-duration stays, rather than single night. The greatest threat is the rise of
substitute services. Morgan Stanley observes how AirBnB, Inc., a global hospitality application,
claims greater market share for leisure travelers from the hospitality industry and greater levels
of satisfaction (90% satisfaction with AirBnb in 2015)21. Fewer traditional customers will
reduce the need for physical structures, and within 50 years, the industry’s primary market could
be aimed at luxury hotels.
14
Investment in renewables is entirely different than reducing consumption22 or utilizing
techniques to conserve energy (e.g. physical layout, shading, grey-water). The hospitality
industry already utilizes numerous examples of successful, commonplace consumption reducing
behaviors within rooms as cost-saving measures. In contrast, the reduced consumption of fossil-
fuel energy through renewable technologies is only common to luxury and boutique hotels that
can afford to offset costs. Indeed, attracting guests that find LEED certification as influential in
their preference23 can create successful marketing, however, the space-limitations needed for true
offsets are not feasible in most cases, such as where solar ground-mounted arrays are installed on
up to 4 acres of space.
Low Cost of Oil and Gas
According to One Caribbean, the Caribbean Tourism Organization, “hotels are among the
top five types of buildings in the service sector for energy consumption”24. However, investment
in renewables is dependent on the fluctuating prices of oil and gas25, as renewable energy is a
substitute for conventional fossil fuels. Given the lack of availability, renewables remain costly
2 Source: World Bank
15
from an investment perspective when the price of oil will remain under $100/barrel for the
foreseeable future. The hospitality industry, like other potential industries, recognizes that newer
forms of renewable power remain “a technology, not a fuel.”
Conclusion
Governments have a responsibility to draft laws that are environmentally sound in order
for their citizens to live safely. Moreover, hotels leave a lasting impression on international
guests, determining their opinions of different countries’ energy policies. Sustainable hotels
reflect positively on local governments, boosting tourism and fostering local economies. Ideally,
governments would take control and advocate for sustainable investments, following the
footsteps of Shore. Realistically, Liberation captures what happens when regulations are lagging
behind social and corporate attitudes on sustainability, and Twitch describes what occurs if
investment in renewable energy is not embraced whatsoever.
16
17
Appendices
Appendix A.
18
Appendix B.
CURRENTTRENDSANDOPPORTUNITIESINHOTELSUSTAINABILITY| PAGE5
TABLE1, SELECTEDENVIRONMENTALPROGRAMS RELEVANTTO THEHOSPITALITYSECTOR*
* Please note that there are over 300 cer tification programs targeted towards all aspects of the hospitality and tourism sector on a global basis.
The above programs represent only a small fraction of all existing certification programs.
Type of Progr am Name Or gan ization Br ief Descr ip tion Website
Green Key Global Green Key Global, Hotel
Association of Canada,
LRAWorldwide, Inc.
Environmental certification program for hotels.
Provides technical guidance. Participating facilities
are awarded between 1 and 5 Green Keys depending
on adherence to criteria.
www.greenkeyglobal.com
Sustainable Tourism
Eco-Certification
Program (STEP)
Sustainable Travel
International
Environmental certification program for tour
operators, hotels, attractions, transportation, and the
cruise industry. Provides guidance, self-assessment
tool, and 2 to 5 star eco-logo rating sys tem. Separate
certification offered for luxury accommodations.
www.sustainabletravelinter
national.org
Green Globe
Certification Standards
Green Globe
International
Environmental certification program for all aspects
of hospitality and travel industry. Membership
required for access to standards . Standards include
337 compliance indicators applied to 41 individual
sus tainability criteria. Adherence to >51% standards
required for certification. Third-party verification
required prior to certification.
www.greenglobe.com
Earthcheck Assessed
and Earthcheck
Certified
Earthcheck Consultancy with clients in the travel and tourism
sector. Provides benchmarking, reporting, technical
guidance, and environmental certification services.
www.earthcheck.org
Ecotel HVS Environmental certification program developed
specifically for hotels. Provides benchmarking,
auditing, technical guidance, and staff training.
Recommendations are classified according to
financial viability. Onsite inspection required prior
to certification.
www.ecotelhotels.com
Global Sustainable
Tourism Criteria
Global Sustainable
Tourism Council
Global coalition of organizations working to develop
increased understanding of sustainable tourism
principles . Provides certification of tourism
certification programs against global sustainable
tourism standards.
www.gstcouncil.org
Leadership in Enerrgy
and Environmental
Design (LEED)
U.S. Green Building
Council
Internationally-recognized green building
certification system. Provides third-party verification
that a building was designed and built using
strategies aimed at achieving high performance in
human and environmental health.
www.usgbc.org
BRE Environmental
Assessment Method
Building Research
Establishment (BRE)
BRE is an independent research-based consultancy,
tes ting and training organization. Provides
certification (environmental and safety), R&D, and
consultancy services for the built environment.
www.bre.co.uk
Green Globes Green Buildings
Initiative (U.S.) and
BOMABESt / ECD Jones
Lang Lasalle ( Canada)
Building environmental des ign and management tool.
Provides online assessment protocol, rating system
and guidance for green building design, operation and
management.
www.greenglobes.com
Energy Star U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency
Voluntary governmental program that provides free
benchmarking services to a variety of building types.
Also rates appliances and provides resources for
owners/ operators.
www.energystar.gov
Green Seal Green Seal Develops life-cycle based certification of products
and services. Provides green building guidance for
public housing facilities and environmental
certification for hotels and lodging properties .
www.greenseal.org
Green Tag Ecospecifier Database of vetted products in infrastructure,
residential, commercial, industrial, and other
construction. Subscription based service.
www.ecospecifer.com.au
Greenguard Greenguard
Environmental Institute
Evaluates emissions from interior products and
building materials.
www.greenguard.org
Env ironmental
Cert ificat ion Programs
Specific to Hospit alit y
Green Bu ilding
Cert ificat ion Programs
Product -Specific
Standards and
Cert ificat ion Programs
19
Appendix C.
20
Appendix D.
21
Appendix E.
22
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