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The RAeS Wilbur and Orville Wright Lecture 2016

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Growing the Future RAF

Introduction

Thank you for your warm welcome and kind introduction.

It’s a privilege to be with you this evening to deliver one of the

Society’s 150th anniversary events and in particular the Wilbur &

Orville Wright Lecture. As you very well know, the theme of this

Lecture has historically been about ‘pioneering aerospace’.

Honouring two gentlemen whose endeavours gave the World heavier-

than-air powered flight. Who pioneered the means through which

most of us in this room – perhaps me especially – have lived our

professional lives. Not only pioneered the means, but provided the

inspiration. As Orville Wright said, ‘I got a thrill out of flying before I

had ever been in the air at all – while lying in bed thinking about how

exciting it would be to fly.’ That pretty much describes how I felt as a

young boy. And it is my great fortune to have been able to translate


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that early inspiration into a career which has presented me with the

ultimate honour and privilege of commanding the Royal Air Force.

This evening, I hope to do justice to that inspiration by talking about

how we are Growing the Future RAF. It will partly be a talk about new

equipment and technologies. It will also be about opportunity,

challenge and risk. And it will be about people, because you don’t

either get the technology without them, or indeed the means to do

something useful with that technology. To quote Wilbur Wright, ‘it is

possible to fly without motors, but not without knowledge and skill.’

Ultimately, my ability to lead the RAF on the path to successful

growth will define my tenure as its commander. And what I’m talking

about here is real growth. You will be very well aware of the

headlines for the RAF from last year’s Defence Review. We are now

deep into the process of delivering those considerable and very

welcome enhancements. But it’s always worth reminding ourselves

that the RAF has rarely been required to grow its capability whilst

fighting – perhaps only during the World Wars. Today, we are facing

that challenge once more and although not on the same scale it is,

nevertheless, a demanding task that is full of opportunity and risk in

equal measure. In this Lecture, I will argue that the RAF, and by


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extension those who support it – a very large number of whom are in

this room this evening - will only succeed in this endeavor if we fully

live up to our strapline of being agile, adaptable and capable.

I’m going to look at 3 themes: a look at today’s RAF; an examination

of the growth signal demanded of us; and then my main focus, how

we might successfully meet that challenge.

Part 1 – The RAF Today

Today’s RAF then. Those who have already heard me speak over the

last few months will know that I invariably start by saying what the

RAF is doing not just today, but right this very moment. I do so

because ultimately that is what defines us an organisation – our

ability to project and deliver precise airpower effects to wherever they

are required. I also do so as a constant reminder to myself – that at

this very moment some of my people are in harm’s way, and that

returning them safely requires consistent, exemplary risk

management at every link in a long chain of people and organisations.

And they do that so well.


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So right now I have pilots and groundcrew on 15 minute alert with

Typhoons at RAF Coningsby and RAF Lossiemouth, ready to defend

our airspace – you will know from the media just how busy that task

has now become. Typhoons also on alert in the Falklands. Tankers

and Support Helicopters on alert as well; air transport in the air,

supporting operations around the world. ISTAR airborne supporting

operations in the Middle East – for every hour of the last year, the

RAF has flown nearly 2 hours of ISR on operations there alone.

Tornados, Typhoons and Reapers collectively delivering over 600

precision strikes in Iraq and Syria this year alone. Reaper is there

24/7 - the operating crews might be in the US or close to here at RAF

Waddington, but I can assure you that physical separation does not in

any way mean separation from the mission or its consequences.

Such remotely-piloted operations are routine business for the RAF of

today but how did we get here? For to truly understand the RAF of

today, we must first understand the evolutionary journey it has been

on since 1990. From the relative certainties of the Cold War; through

the 1991 Gulf War – a character of conflict which is unlikely to be

replicated; through Bosnia, Kosovo, no-fly zones over Iraq and the

2003 Gulf War; and then enduring stabilisation missions in Iraq and

Afghanistan. And then Libya at the same time, and now Iraq (once


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again) and Syria. At each stage the RAF has indeed been agile,

adaptable and capable: providing the UK government with viable

military options. Air power provided us with the decisive military

edge. I’m not saying that air power did it alone – of course not. But

none of it would have happened without our decisive air power.

Others have taken due note, and adapted accordingly.

So what does this tell us about the RAF of today? Most obviously, it

is a ‘battle-hardened’ Force with everyone experiencing something;

many have done multiple operational tours. My people know what it

is to go away and fight. But there is a risk that that experience,

although deep, might be relatively narrow. And continuous

operational tours are inevitably tiring.

The RAF has also shrunk in size considerably since 1990. In

quantitative terms, we are small compared to the Force that deployed

to the 1991 Gulf War in equipment and personnel. But in qualitative

terms we are a formidable giant, with an almost completely re-

capitalised force – an enviable position. There are far fewer regulars,

but at the same time we have fully embraced the Whole Force

Approach – regulars, reserves, civil servants and contractors – to

deliver our military outputs.


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Affordability has been an increasingly important factor – we cannot

live in a vacuum disconnected from the Nation that funds them, or

resist the challenges of value for money or increased efficiency – we

owe it to the public, and to ourselves, to ensure that we extract every

last ounce of capability benefit from the money we are given. We

have therefore modernised our approach to become as effective in

the business space as we have remained in the battlespace – the RAF

has been leading this transformation.

The context in which we generate and employ military force has also

changed – the Information Age is well and truly here. All operations

are now Joint by default. Globalisation has sped up and technology

proliferates rapidly with commercial companies now increasingly

dominating traditional government markets.

So let me outline the RAF of today and draw this section to a close.

Today’s RAF has been fighting continuously for 25 years and earned

valuable combat experience. It is smaller but delivering more punch

for its weight, with an almost completely modernised force, and in

new, more efficient ways than it did before. It has pioneered new

methods for the generation of air power and shared the US’s journey


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in areas such as: precision weapon effects, low-observable and

remote operations. And in so doing, the RAF has evolved from

single-role to multi-role platforms, acting simultaneously across air

power roles and multiple levels of warfare.

Today’s RAF has come a long way since 1990 but our journey has

barely begun; it does though define the starting point for our growth

into the future.

Part 2 – The Growth Signal

Let me now turn to an examination of that growth signal. Why is it

that we’ve been asked to grow the RAF again for the first time in

generations?

I’m going to start to answer that by making a fairly self-evident

observation, but an important one nonetheless. Air power has

become the common denominator in every military operation we

undertake – Air and Land Forces, Air and Maritime Forces, Air and

Special Forces. When was the last time Air wasn’t involved in some

way?


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The next part of my answer was evident in what I’ve already said. Air

power provides the Nation with viable – that is capable and affordable

– military options, and the agility to act quickly at range when

necessary.

The source of that growth signal was the Strategic Defence and

Security Review 2015 (SDSR15). Its goal is to give the UK the ability

to fight in the ‘Information Age’ and a greater ability to undertake the

most difficult missions, across the spectrum of potential conflict,

alongside NATO and other Allies. This is a much changed emphasis

from the 2010 Review.

The means to do this will be vested in Joint Force 2025 – an increased

warfighting commitment at scale with a 50-thousand plus force –

representing a 40% uplift in ambition – that fights in a Joint and

Integrated way. That is, in concert with cross-Government

departments exercising all levers of National power to deliver one

desired outcome. Within its headline figure of a deployed force of up

to 50,000, the RAF is tasked to provide an Expeditionary Air Group of

between 4-9 combat aircraft squadrons, 6-20 surveillance platforms,

5-15 transport aircraft and 4,000 to 10,000 personnel.


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SDSR15 also brought some welcome financial certainty. The

commitment to spend 2% of GDP each year on Defence over the life

of this Parliament means that we can make plans for our growth with

confidence.

The content of these plans is likely well-known to you but for

completeness let me briefly recap on the SDSR15 growth signal

tasked on the RAF.

Three new combat air squadrons – 2 of Typhoon and 1 of F-35

Lightning – delivering a 50% increase in planned combat capability. A

doubling of the existing RPA fleet with a new buy of 20 Protector

aircraft. A new buy of 9 Poseidon P-8 maritime patrol aircraft.

Extensions to out-of-service dates and capability enhancement for: E-

3D Sentry, Air Seeker, Shadow, Sentinel and C-130J. Increased

crewing ratios for: Reaper then Protector, E-3D Sentry, Air Seeker and

Shadow. And a welcome uplift of 300 regular personnel to assist this

growth.

But I return to my earlier question – why grow the RAF now? The

short answer is that now both the opportunity and requirement are

coincident.


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There is another perhaps less-visible strand to this growth signal

though. Through painful and hard won experiences, we now have the

right safety culture. We are trusted to manage ourselves as a

business. And our reputation for skill and professionalism in

delivering operational effect is second to none. I feel that this too has

played a part in the source of the growth signal – the RAF is trusted to

deliver.

However, the two biggest drivers of this signal are contextual

changes in the global security picture and in our National appetite to

employ the military instrument. The re-emergence of Russia as a

potential peer challenger is significant and was recently described by

the Chief of the Defence Staff as a ‘new strategic competition between

Russia and NATO’. Nationally, air power’s ability to quickly mass, act

and then just as quickly dissipate offers an attractive option.

Achieving this aiming point will therefore require a truly agile,

adaptable and capable RAF.

Part 3 – Meeting the Challenge


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So in my final section, let me talk about how we intend to deliver the

growth that is required of us. I want to tackle this in 3 distinct

sections: first, a little more on the challenge itself; second, our

conceptual approach to it; and, finally, identification of some of the

tangible ways that we are considering to deliver this growth.

As many here will know, an uplift of equipment does not equal

capability growth until the RAF has satisfactorily addressed the other

Lines of Development – training, personnel, information, doctrine,

organisation, infrastructure and logistics. An old chestnut perhaps,

but certainly a truism we cannot ignore.

Within these DLODs, there are 2 aspects of the challenge that stand

out – personnel and finance – as being fundamental to the RAF

ultimately being able to deliver success. Let me give you a feel for

why I say that.

Before SDSR15, the RAF strength was around 7% short of its

established personnel liability; that is just over 2,200 personnel. We

need to address this before we can recruit the uplift of 300 personnel

from SDSR15. The new equipment uplift also means that I may need

to reconfigure the personnel that I do have – a significant increase in


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the aggregate skills level I need in my organisation, at a time when

we’re all acutely aware of the growing challenges in attracting and

retaining those specialist skills.

The required uplifts in personnel alone illustrate these points quite

well. Post SDSR15 we need to increase the pilot in-to-training (ITT)

figures to our various OCUs by around 69% if we are to grow our

capability at a reasonable rate over time. For WSOp(L)s – you may

remember this Branch as Air Signallers – we need to double the input,

and nearly quadruple the input of their ground based equivalents –

Intelligence Analysts (Linguistic). Now I do need to underline the

context here. The starting point for these specialisations is relatively

low – for the Linguists, it’s an increase from 10 to 36. But it’s still

quite a tough ‘ask’ when you start from a relatively low baseline, and

you consider that these sorts of cadres are the most difficult to recruit

and take the longest time to train.

And you can’t grow your capability if you can’t pay for it – the RAF’s

planned budgetary allocation post SDSR15 did not instantly provide

all the money needed to provide for the capability increases. We

must still find efficiencies from within to first ‘create’ the money

which we can then spend on the required growth. This will not be an


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easy task, but what a great challenge and incentive to have – a more

efficient organisation, with the money re-cycled to become a more

capable one. I can motivate people around that.

If people and money form the crux of the RAF challenge, let me briefly

explain our conceptual approach to meeting that challenge because

this too is fundamental to our success.

Our goal is straightforward – the creation of genuine and sufficient

headroom to be able to grow successfully and without which, the RAF

will simply not move forward.

Achieving this headroom requires us to follow some guiding

principles and they are the ones that I have been advertising since the

first day I took command:

First and foremost, we must and will act now – this challenge is too

big to simply wait and hope our existing approach will work. If we

wait until we discover that it isn’t working, then it will already be too

late to recover and we will have missed a golden opportunity.


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We must investigate every aspect of our current operations and

business model to see if we can improve it – everything is on the

table and up for discussion.

We will only take forward holistic solutions that can endure, not

tactical sticking plasters which, in all likelihood, cannot.

We will accept risk to be innovative recognising they are closely

related. Easy to say, but not always easy to deliver in practice. But

we will never be reckless – retaining our ‘licence to operate’ is

fundamental.

We cannot shirk from taking the hard decisions where necessary for

the medium-to-long term health of the RAF, whatever the object of

that decision is.

Our plans must also be realistic and affordable because if they are not

then they are ultimately destined to fail.

Now there is a risk here of me creating the impression that I have

some fundamental concerns about what the RAF is doing. This could

not be further from the truth. We are truly outstanding in the tactical


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level execution of airpower, be it in control of the air, ISTAR, strike or

air mobility. I need only cite the evidence of what we do every day.

What I’m talking about is what is needed to sustain that output and

grow the RAF of the future. And that ultimately means addressing our

strategic workforce challenges. Only by adopting these principles we

will be able to protect what we need to during this growth and adapt

that which we need to change.

So let me identify some – not all – of the things we are pursuing with a

view to creating that very important headroom for future growth.

These essentially fall into 2 categories: those things we have already

done previously which are now starting to come to fruition; and,

those things which we are considering as a direct result of SDSR15

outcomes, are still quite immature and have yet to be implemented.

Both our key aspects of our growth potential.

Of those things previously implemented and now maturing there are 3

initiatives which can help the RAF along its growth journey:

The most obvious of these is the new Military Flying Training System,

or MFTS, which essentially contracts out the training of all UK aircrew.


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It would be fair to say that this programme has not enjoyed a trouble-

free genesis but it is now at the point where we can exploit all the

hard work that has been put in by the RAF and Ascent, the

commercial enterprise that is delivering it. In growth terms, it offers

us more people, trained to a higher standard and in a shorter period

than was possible with our legacy approach.

Less obvious but just as significant is the achievement of full

operating capability for the dis-aggregated Air Capability model. This

was one of Levene’s recommendations and sought to de-centralise

capability planning to make the single Services more responsible and

accountable for acquisition; it too has not been a straightforward

implementation but we are there now. This model, within bounds,

gives the RAF greater control of the what, when and how. This helps

our headroom challenge by allowing us to select the optimum

pathway for any capability growth – or decline – as well as

incentivising us to do this efficiently because we can then re-invest

any savings we make.

The 3rd initiative – the implementation of the Aviation Safety and

Regulation model – may at first glance appear to offer little potential

for growth but look again. The Military Airworthiness Authority, or


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MAA, grew out of Haddon-Cave’s recommendations; it introduced the

Duty Holder Construct which is a process that ensures all operating

and operational risk is fully considered with clear lines of

responsibility and authority. Its potential lies in the fact that if we

understand our risks better this allows us to take smarter decisions

about what we do with our capabilities and when.

But I’ve already said that our current approach on its own is unlikely

to be enough so allow me to identify how some of the less mature

initiatives:

The stand-up of our new Joint Air Operations Centre at High

Wycombe will provide the Air C2 capacity and capability to execute

National missions, in isolation or in concert with other Joint

Headquarters and Allied partners. Its growth potential derives from

the possibility that, in time, it may also offer the UK an increasingly

capable, centralised Air C2 capability providing an alternative to a

forward deployment of Air C2 forces.

The trail establishment of a Rapid Capabilities Office within HQ Air

Command has the purpose of driving innovation and capability

delivery. Its remit is to exploit commercial-off-the-shelf technologies


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and its military-off-the-shelf equivalent. By potentially growing our

capability more quickly or sustaining that we have more effectively, it

could free up headroom for growth elsewhere.

Programme GATEWAY established a single air mobility hub at RAF

Brize Norton but we are only just beginning to understand the

potential efficiencies this can offer us in many areas, and collectively

this could add up to headroom potential. For example, in the space of

3 years, the average age of our air mobility platforms went from 42

years to 3 years; we now have the opportunity to apply modern

aircraft fleet management practises to our Force allowing us to accrue

and reinvest the efficiencies this offers.

Many of you will have read the headlines from the recent National

Audit Office (NAO) report on the condition of the Defence Estate –

Project PORTAL seeks to rationalise the RAF’s part of that Estate.

Our goal is clear, to keep what we truly need and ensure it is in good

working order then dispose of the rest generating efficiencies –

people and money – which we can re-invest into our growth potential.


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These 4 examples are things we’ve started but not finished, so what

about those we’re still discussing? I’ll cover just 3 to highlight

breadth and depth, but they are not exhaustive:

Let’s start with the front-line. Programme ATHENA seeks to take a

holistic, long-term view of the RAF’s ISTAR Force. It is a multi-

faceted initiative which involves regulars, reserves, industry and

academia and seeks to answer the question: ‘what could this be like

in 2025’? Our work is still immature but it could see the

establishment of an ISTAR Academy approach providing a ‘single-

door’ solution to development and sustainment of the Force. It could

also see us using regional demographics in a smarter way to develop

a Whole Force workforce that is not predominantly reliant on regulars.

ATHENA offers us an intelligent growth option.

Next, getting to the front-line and more specifically the input to Phase

2 professional training in the round. Indeed, overall, I want to reduce

the time we spend in training. Counter-intuitive you might think, but

less time in training does not inevitably result in a less well-trained

person; and in the face of fierce competition for trained people, we

simply must maximise the time people spend on the front-line. For

example, we believe it’s possible to re-profile Initial Officer Training


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(IOT) without detrimental impact on the individual throughout their

career by taking an all-encompassing view of what education young

officers get and when. If we can reduce the time spent on IOT by

around 30% – or more – we can get manpower to the front line quicker

and potentially grow the RAF more rapidly.

And my 3rd example is our People Portfolio work; it’s the most

important because it will impact every aspect of our growth planning.

At its heart is development of a new and refined HR governance

model that is capable of skilfully guiding the RAF on the people

capability ‘journey’ it needs to take in order to grow and sustain the

future RAF. By adopting a portfolio approach to HR, we can design

every aspect of this complicated eco-system in a more coherent way,

when compared to our legacy approach, recognising that a seemingly

small input in one area can have a strategic impact somewhere else.

For example, understanding what first attracts someone to a career in

the RAF to being successfully recruited and then selected for a

particular branch or trade, through to retaining our people for a full,

meaningful and challenging career. And then encouraging them to

remain linked to the RAF when they eventually leave regular service,

whether as a reservist, or perhaps even as a re-joiner in due course.


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This People Portfolio work will need to become the key that unlocks

my strategic workforce challenges, which is why its lead, Chief of

Staff Personnel, now sits on my Air Force Board Executive.

We can pick up more on this in Q&A but before I draw my remarks to

a close, I would like to directly address you, my audience, in your

professional capacity and request your help in delivering the RAF’s

growth.

Hopefully my presentation has given all of you a good feel for the

challenge we have and what we are trying to achieve? If it has, then

please do explain it carefully to those who either do not understand it

or have not heard it.

To representatives of the Defence Industry, the RAF will be an

intelligent and demanding customer but please do feel free to

respond in kind as a supplier. We need to mature that relationship if

we are to seize every opportunity and exploit every bit of capability

we can generate.


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To employers and businesses in general. Our Portfolio approach

means we want to compete-less and cooperate-more with you over

personnel. People have always moved freely between various

aspects of the same Industry so help us to extend this to the RAF.

The quality of the individual and their career satisfaction will benefit

and this can only help us both in the long term. We want to hear your

ideas and would welcome an opportunity for you to hear ours.

To those in the media, not everything we try will work out – we aspire

to be innovative and that involves risk and sometimes things fail. But

please do point out the bigger picture of this growth journey and help

others to recognise that failure is often on the pathway to success.

Don’t forget Wilbur and Orville had mixed success with their

experimental gliders before they finalised their successful design for

a powered airplane.

And a final point. Your presence here this evening has shown that

you are not only part of the professional UK aerospace community

but that you have an interest in a successful RAF. So my plea is this

– let’s work together, without fear or favour, to grow the RAF as

effectively as we can. Our collective security and defence may one

day depend on it.


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It is on that note that I will conclude.

Conclusion

Allow me to recap my 3 main themes. The evolution of the RAF since

1990 has been quite remarkable given its engagement on operations

in support of the Nation’s interests around the World for 25

continuous years.

Air power’s utility though has been widely recognised and therefore,

in light of the new strategic competition we now find ourselves in with

a resurgent peer challenger, SDSR15 tasked the RAF to grow its

capabilities to meet the design needs of Joint Force 2025.

Our challenge then is a straightforward one. The RAF must meet that

growth signal whilst simultaneously fighting on operations – this is

not an unprecedented occurrence, but it is rare.

SDSR15 identified the new equipment but turning that into a

capability is our responsibility. It is an opportunity to set the RAF on


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a firm trajectory well into its 2nd Century – it is therefore one we need

to seize and one which will define my tenure as its Chief.

But it is an evolution that is full of complicated risk which we must

safely navigate if our growth is not to be hollow and in name alone.

This is a tough ‘ask’ but one we accept. Our first requirement is to

get sufficient headroom to grow and our primus inter pares mission is

to address our strategic workforce challenges.

11 days hence will mark the 113th anniversary of Orville’s first

powered flight but its preparation had been many years in the

planning. Many others were experimenting in a field which was

perhaps viewed at the time as being so complex that its problems

were unsolvable. But Wilbur and Orville realised it was just a

complicated aeronautical problem which they could solve by

considering the problem as a whole.

And that is a simple analogy for what the RAF must do today. While

not forsaking the tactical excellence which gives us our reputation,

we must lift our gaze to the Operational-level and think well beyond

today’s problem. If we do, we can – and will – identify the holistic


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solutions to allow us to create the headroom and then grow our

capabilities.

In sum, it is time for us to demonstrate agility and adaptability in

pursuit of our new capability.

And finally, I note that in 1905 while perfecting their Wright Flyer

design near Dayton, Wilbur made a spectacular flight which lasted 39

minutes. Well, I too am now approaching that amount of time at the

‘controls’ of this 105th Lecture and so that signals an apt moment to

draw it to a close whilst reflecting on the pioneers of powered flight.

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