gtz/beaf, nairobi 2-3/05/2010

Biofuel Evaluation for Tanzanian Technological Efficiency using Renewables - Integrated Strategies

Strategies to use Biofuel Value Chain Potential in Sub-Saharan Africa to respond to Global Change -

Enhancing low-productivity Farming in Tanzania and linking to SMEs

GTZ/BEAF, Nairobi 2-3/05/2010

The International Food Policy Research Institute

Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research e.V.

Environmental Economics and World Trade

World Agroforestry Centre Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Africa

Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)

Structure

1 Objective2 Problem3 Activities & Outputs4 Case study region 5 Time frame 6 Preliminary results7 Challenges

1 Objective2 Problem3 Activities4 Case Study5 Time Frame 6 Results7 Challenges

1. Objective

To identify the potential for linking low-productivity farming to small and medium enterprises (SME) to enhance livelihoods through biofuel value chains in the scope of increased global energy demand.

To provide farmers, regional organizations and local authorities in Tanzania with feasible strategies to benefit from biomass production potential and mitigate food insecurity.


2. Problem

Most significant global drivers: Climate Change (Gbetibouo et al. 2006) and global energy demand (Von Braun 2007). -> High forecast uncertainty

Biofuels potential to provide communities in sSA with multiple energy services (e.g, heating, cooking, transport) -> Benefit to rural populations (United Nations 2007).

Risk of increasing food prices and reduced supply (Von Braun 2007) -> Displacement of vulnerable people from productive

land, negative environmental impacts (Thornton et al. 2006).


2. Problem

Potential intervention points to assist rural poor (Leuenberger & Wohlgemuth 2006)

Pathways on biofuel value chains from (1) biomass resources to (2) supply systems, (3) conversion (4) processed end products

-> Maximizing profit through producing feedstock for external markets,

-> Optimal mix of energy carriers and supply for domestic and industrial users at rural level-> Condition: sustainability with focus on food security &

ecosystem health


Biomass ressources (e.g. oil bearing

plants)

Supply systems

(e.g. harvesting, collection, etc.)

Conversion(e.g. pressing, fermentation, estherfication) End products

(e.g. Transportation fuels, electricity,

etc.)

2. Problem

Positive Impacts

Negative Impacts

Type, Condition, Requirements


3. Activities of partners

The International Food Policy Research Institute

Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research e.V.

Environmental Economics and World Trade

Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Africa

World Agroforestry Centre

Modeling Statistics Appraisal Expertise

loca

lgl

obal

Contact & workshop

Contact & workshop

Village modeling & certification appraisal

Coordination & value chain analysis

Biomass consumption patterns

global energy and agricultural modeling


3. Activity IFPRI

Top-down global modeling approaches to downscale implications for energy demand and to excess supply or gaps in supplies.

-> The scenario solving by the agricultural sector model IMPACT -> Country-level food outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa related to the global food situation in medium- and

long-term analysis (Von Braun 2007).


3. Activity Wuppertal Institute

Biomass consumption patterns with focus on competing biomass uses (food, material, energy) and options for cascading systems.

-> Description of patterns of consumption and forecasts linking outputs from global scenarios (output 1) and biomass value chains (output 3). -> Assessment of scenario implications (such as production incentives, key drivers for biomass consumption pattern, export opporunities, expected benetifs, gross indication for climate balances (CO2).


3. Activity IUW, WI, ZALF, ICRAF, ASARECA

Bottom-up biomass value chains through feasibility studies on potential pathways of linking low-productivity farming to SME on local, decentralized biomass concepts.

-> Microeconomic calculations (costs, benefits, risks, marginal analysis) underline technological and

infrastructural feasibility-> Methods on participatory stakeholder analysis and

involvements by means of adequate appraisal methods -> The transferability of the case study region-results

to other regions in Sub-Saharan Africa will be assessed.


3. Activity ZALF

Sustainability Impact Assessments (SIA) towards trade offs between socio-economic and environmental indicators related to production and side conditions for biomass value chains.

-> Assessing the situation of food security -> Each sustainability dimension (social, environmental, economic) must be represented by sound and consistent indicators.


3. Activity ZALF, all

An Information System of feasible value chain concepts as advice packages for capacity building and dissemination strategies

-> Access to gained knowledge as people-centered approach

-> IS has to account for key actors along the “value chain”-> For the Tanzanian case and main findings on the

transferability test to other representative Sub-Saharan regions.


Capacity Building & Dissemination

Information System

Output 2 Biomass consumption patterns

Output 4Sustainability Impact Assessment

Trade offs and Implications for food security

Output 1

Regional & local energy Scenarios Global energy and agricultural modeling

Top-Dow

nB

otto

m-U

p

Output 3

Biomass Value Chain Analysis

Stakeholder Analysis & Appraisal Methods

Regional Case Study Analysis

Output 5

6. Case Study

Biofuel Evaluation for Technological Tanzanian Efficiency using Renewables - Integrated Strategies

Jatropha

Palm oil

Sugarcane

Sweet Sorghum

Croton

Sugarcaneregions

Palm oilregions

4. Overview: Scoping study


4. Overview: Case Study

Tandai VillageSurvey


5. Time frame

2009 2010 2011

Worksho

p 1

Year

House

hold su

rveys

(villa

ge mode

l)

Worksho

p 2

Workshop

3

Workshop 1: Kick-Off Meeting, Identification Information Gaps, StrategyWorkshop 2: First Results, Model ValidationWorkshop 3: Model Results Discussion, Information System Adjustment

Modeli

ng,

Data Eva

luatio

n

Master Themes, internal Reports

IFPRI Modelling with IMPACT


6. Preliminary Results

Biofuel Value Chains• Wood / charcoal -> baseline • Jatropha -> energy use at community level (e.g. MFP)• Palm Oil -> out grower systems

Ongoing activities • Modelling (IMPACT & CGE village model)• Village Survey in Kinole for multiple use (CGE, SIA etc.)• 5 master theses as satellites studies • Indicator development - Sustainability Impact Assessment • Participative stakeholder workshops • Academic level (session convener “Sustainable biofuel

production in developing countries”), special issue• Homepage as interaction platform among actors

(Information System)


6. IMPACT Model


Building from past scenario exercises

The descriptive ‘storylines’ (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA), UNEP Global Environmental Outllook (GEO) provide a starting point for thinking about how socio-economic and environmental drivers could evolve differently for a region like Tanzania

UNEP GEO-4 assessment to define the direction of some key drivers of change in order to evaluate the dynamics within food and fuel markets in Tanzania

Three Scenarios for Tanzania’s Future

• Look at a baseline of “Business-as-Usual” in addition to two alternative ones:

– “Security First” – which is a “Balkanization”-type of scenario that has much less trade (much higher levels of trade protection), slow diffusion of knowledge, less innovation, and slower economic growth. Most of the key socio-economic indicators point in the “negative” direction under this scenario

– “Sustainability First” – which is where policies promoting environmental protection, more efficient energy usage and technologies, and more emphasis on yield and productivity growth to avoid agricultural area expansion

6. IMPACT Model


Population Growth in Tanzania under scenarios

IFs model outputs

6. IMPACT Model


Per capita income growth in Tanzania under scenarios

IFs model outputs

6. IMPACT Model


Girls secondary schooling rates in Tanzania under scenarios

IMPACT model inputs

6. IMPACT Model


Child malnutrition in Tanzania under scenarios

IMPACT model outputs

6. IMPACT Model


Concluding Thoughts

• Currently undertaking some key improvements:– Refining scenario definitions to incorporate biofuels and

bioenergy (such as biomass use at the household level)– Account for effects of gradual diet change in the high-

income countries that have an effect on market in SS Africa (such as changes in meat demand)

– Look more closely at the dimensions of urbanization in Tanzania and the implications for diet and energy usage

– Currently revising the global biofuels modeling framework to better link with country-level markets in Tanzania

6. IMPACT Model


6. Results: Jatropha / Wood Chain Kinole (Added value screening)

Wood chain - baseline

• Integration: Agroforestry Good Practices / woodlots• Efficiency (charcoal production and stoves) and trade off

analysis of best alternatives

Jatropha - scenarioControversial discussion

• Jatropha adds value under good site conditions / inputs -> Kilosa SUMAGRO Ltd. Farm (1,2 kg seeds / tree)

• Added value depends on individual set of conditions -> test case in Kinole

• Jatropha as support plant for high value crops (e.g. vanilla) -> major condition with market access

• Checklist to discuss potentials, requirements, fulfillments -> focus groups


6. Results: Jatropha

Kilosa SUMAGRO Ltd. Farm (1,2 kg seeds / tree)

Kinole Pepper (left)Vanilla (right)


6. Results: Workshops

Participative development of an integrated approach

• to analyze potentials and requirements for implementing site-specific value-chain concepts for biofuels

• To conceptually embed the findings into policy framework (e.g. biofuel guidelines)

• to develop tools for discussion support at community level

2009 2010 2011

Worksho

p 1

YearHou

sehold

surve

ys

(villa

ge mode

l)

Worksho

p 2

Worksho

p 3


6. Results: Workshop & Survey

First Better-iS workshop

• Discussion among farmers, policy makers at district level / ministry, researchers, NGOs and SME-holder

• Sustainability impact assessment: Indicator development• Preparation for first up-scaling example (Jatropha

seedlings)• Promising process with focus on the village Kinole

>> Survey is being conducted (until end of June)

First village workshop

• Harmonizing of workshop outcomes to local community level


6. Results: Workshops


6. Participative Decision Support Tool

Development of a biofuel checklist to dicuss requirements versus degrees of fulfillment, e.g- access to capital- human capital- infrastructure

Assessment method (1-3 from low to high)

Requirements to implement an intervention

Degrees of fulfillment of implemented intervention


6. Participative Decision Support Tool

AAttributes of good practice

Operational question Indicators for assessing successRating Weighting

A1: Is the practice affordable by farmers or can the target group carry the cost of the good practice? I

A1: There is sufficient access to financial means by farmers (women and men) by own financial resources (please rate 2); they can access loans at reasonable interest rates (please rate 1); they need major financial assistance by the implementing organisation (please rate 0).

3 0 6

A2: Is the knowledge which is required for successful implementation available/is the good practice already known to the farmers? II

A2: The majority of farmers (women and men) has (traditional) working experience with the good practice and local/traditional knowledge similar to the good practice is present in the community (2); the majority knows the good practice from direct observation and/or the good practice is familiar to them (1); the good practice is completely new to them (0).

3 0 6

AIndicators for assessing success

Rating Weighting


3 0 6


3 0 6

AIndicators for assessing success

Rating Weightingactual

satisfaction

maximum score


3 0 6


3 0 6

60 questions and related indicators

6. CGE Modelling at village level

Village survey provides data for Social Accounting matrix 1 Objective2 Problem3 Activities4 Case Study5 Time Frame 6 Results7 Challenges

http://www.better-is.com/ 6. Homepage Better-iS


From homepage towards Information System with decision support tools

6. Summary

Homepage / Decision support products in an Information System for involved actors Farmers, local / national decision makers Policy recommendations on implementation strategies Value chain-specific requirement tools

Research reports on scientific outcomes IFSA conference Peer-reviewed scientific publications (Special Issue) Training of PhD & master students in Africa and Germany Network among SME-holder, Research & Policy

Integration of different components to establish an Information System that is accessible for all actors

To take results to the ground for actual implementation To actually link top-down outcomes with bottom-up findings To embed developed approaches into biofuel guidelines


Thank you for your attention!http://www.better-is.com/

gtz/beaf, nairobi 2-3/05/2010

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