hev, p-hev, and ev market 2011-2025 p-hev and ev market 2011-2025... · 2019-03-18 · christophe...

Christophe PILLOT [email protected]

+33(0)1 4778 4600

HEV, P-HEV, and EV

market 2011-2025

Battery is the key

Director, AVICENNE ENERGY

Christophe PILLOT BRUSSELS

20 – 22 NOVEMBER 2012

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025

Battery is the Key

AVICENNE PROFILE

Creation: 1992, by Ali MADANI

Headquarter: Paris

Liaison Office: Japan, USA

AVICENNE Energy Director: Christophe Pillot

5 consultants A Madani C Pillot JP Salvat X Zhang A Yassari

Information for Growth - Powering your company’s market strategy

with in-depth research

The Rechargeable Battery market

21st Edition

Customized

survey

2


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Battery is the Key

METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH TO

RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION

In Depth analysis Of applications

Conferences & Exhibitions

Top management contact network > 19 000 contacts

Cross Check Analysis

Battery Makers

OEM

Raw materials suppliers

Environment & recycling

BMS

Electronics

Substitution technologies


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Battery is the Key

CUSTOMIZED & MULTICLIENT SURVEY

FOR ALL THE VALUE CHAIN

Source : Photo from BASF

Raw Materials

BMS & Electronics

Cooling Systems

Power Electronics

Batteries


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Battery is the Key

AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO

HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

HEV powered by Lithium ion battery

forecasts from 2008 to 2012

EV sold, in million units, worldwide,

2010 - 2020

IIT (March 2010)

AAB

Deutsche Bank

Roland Berger (2011)

AVICENNE

IIT (March 2011)

Roland Berger (2012)

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2015 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

5

IIT 2007

IIT 2008

IIT 2009

IIT 2010

AVICENNE 2007

REALITY 0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mill

ion

HEV

po

wer

ed b

y LI

B


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Battery is the Key

6

THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY

DYNAMIC

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2000 2011

Mill

ion

Un

its

/ ye

ar

Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

NiMH

211 M Portable

PCs

65 M Tablets

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2011

Mill

ion

Un

its/

Ye

ar

Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

NiMH

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2000 2011

Ton

s o

f ca

tho

de

/ Y

ear

Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

2000 2011

$/W

h

Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)


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Battery is the Key

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

1990 2000 2010

MW

h

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

1990 2000 2010

MW

h

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2010

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

1990 2000 2010

MW

h


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

7

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments


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Battery is the Key

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2010

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0

1990 2000 2010

Bill

ion

US

$


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

35 BILLION US$

5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2010)

8

-

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0

1990 2000 2010

Bill

ion

US$

STORAGE

TRACTION

INDUSTRIAL

PORTABLE

SLI


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Battery is the Key

LI-ION IN 2011

MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

>4 200 M cells – 28 000 MWh

9 700 M$

CAGR 2006/2011

+21% per year in Volume

+13% per year in value

9

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2011

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 M

Wh

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2011

Tablets Power Tools Camcorders

Digital Camera Video Games MP3

Toys Auto Household devices

E-bikes Others


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Battery is the Key

LI-ION IN 2011

MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

> 4 200M cells – 28 000 MWh

9 700 M$

CAGR 2006/2011

+21% per year in Volume

+13% per year in value

10

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

M $

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2011

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 M

$

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2011

Automotives Tablets Power tools Camcorders Digital camera MP3 Games E-Bikes Others


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Battery is the Key

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

20

20

30

Million barrel per day

Price of the WTI barrel

of oil, US $

CO2 density in the

atmosphere increase

11

WHY X-EV ?

Petroleum

consumption

worldwide 1960-2030

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

19

73

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

Source: Energy Information

Administration, US Government

Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

Source: IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007, Synthesis Report p38


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Battery is the Key

12

HEV, P-HEV & EV

DEFINITION & SEGMENTATION

EV & HEV MARKET

EV 25 kWh

HEV 0.6-2 kWh batteries

MICRO HEV*

MILD HEV

MEDIUM HEV

FULL HEV

P HEV 5 kWh

batteries

CITROEN C3 TOYOTA VITZ

GM Saturn Vue GM AURA

GM MALIBU HONDA ACCORD

HONDA CIVIC INSIGHT

MERCEDES S400

TOYOTA PRIUS

TOYOTA CAMRY

FORD ESCAPE FORD FUSION

MILAN GM YUKON GM TAHOE

NISSAN ALTIMA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 $ 5 000 $ 10 000 $ 15 000 $

Fuel saving Vs. Cost

HEV

P-HEV

EV


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Battery is the Key

HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012

1,5 M HEV

HEV sold per year, M units,

worldwide, 2000 - 2012

Penetration of hybrids in the

global sales, 2000-2012

13

Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY

Micro hybrid not included

0,0%

0,2%

0,4%

0,6%

0,8%

1,0%

1,2%

1,4%

1,6%

1,8%

2,0%

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

HEV

wo

rld

wid

e p

en

etr

atio

n (

%)

Mill

ion

TOYOTA OTHERS

USA

JAPAN

EUROPE 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Pen

etra

tio

n o

f h

ybri

ds

in t

he

glo

bal

e s

ales


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Battery is the Key


BY CAR SUPPLIER

TOYOTA

HONDA

FORD GM

BMW

HYUNDAI

PORCHE

Others

Total HEV Vehicles

+1,5 M in 2012

HEV sold per year, M units per

car manufacturers, 2000-2012

14

TOYOTA

HONDA

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

‘ 00

0 H

EV s

old

TOYOTA HONDA



Others: Nissan, Mercedes, Mazda, VW, Audi


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Battery is the Key


BY CAR SUPPLIER

TOP 3: TOYOTA, HONDA,

HYUNDAI

OTHERS: FORD, GM, …

15

TOYOTA

HONDA

HYUNDAI 0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400 ‘ 0

00

HEV

so

ld

TOYOTA HONDA HYUNDAI

FORD

GM

HYUNDAI

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

‘ 00

0 H

EV s

old

FORD GM HYUNDAI




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Battery is the Key


BY COUNTRY

USA 29%

EUROPE 10%

JAPAN 54%

OTHERS 7%

Total HEV Vehicles

1,5 M in 2012

HEV sold per year, M units per

country, 2004-2012

16

USA

EUROPE

JAPAN

OTHERS 0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012



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Battery is the Key

HEV FORECASTS

2012-2020

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

USA EUROPE JAPAN

OTHERS WORLD

HEV MARKET: +2 Million units in 2015 & +4 M Units in 2020

17

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

Mill

ion

USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS



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Battery is the Key

LONG TERM HEV FORECAST

FROM 3 TO 8 M HEV IN 2020

0,9

2,2

4,4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2011 2015 2020

Mill

ion

AVICENNE (Sept 2012)

AVICENNE (Oct 2009)

AABC (2011)

IIT (March 2011)

Credit Suisse

Deutsche Bank (Nov 2009)

Roland Berger (Mini August 2011)

Nomura (March 2009)

18

AVICENNE ENERGY FORECASTS ARE REALISTIC

COMPARE TO OTHER ANALYSTS

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Compilation, February 2012



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Battery is the Key

LI-ION PENETRATION IN VARIOUS

DEVICES: AVICENNE & OTHER ANALYSTS FORECAST

19

Li-ion penetration in electronic

devices & HEV

(1)AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Relevant scenario

(2)AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Li-ion Optimistic scenario

(3)IIT, TAKESHITA, March 08, THE 25th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT, Slide 8 & March 2009, 26th Battery Seminar,

(4)AAB, Menahem ANDERMAN, Ph.D, Tampa, Florida, May 2009

HEV powered by LIB

forecasts from 2008 to 2011

IIT 2007

IIT 2008

IIT 2009

IIT 2010

AVICENNE 2007

REALITY 0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mill

ion

HEV

po

wer

ed b

y LI

B

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011


Cellular Phones

(to=1994)

Portable PCs (to=1994)

Power Tools (to=2004)

HEV Avicenne (to=2010)

HEV IIT (to=2009)

HEV AAB (to=2009)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Li-i

on

pen

etra

tio

n in

ele

ctro

nic

de

vice

s &

HEV


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Battery is the Key

LIB BUSINESS

RECALL SLASH BATTERY PROFIT

20

More & more incidents & accidents

All the battery makers and the OEM are concerned

Recall cost impact drastically the battery business and the profitability

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

Op

era

tin

g p

rofi

t/R

eve

nu

e

RECALL SLASH BATTERY PROFIT

Sanyo

MBI

BYD

SGS

Sony

NEC

Maxell

LGC

SDI

Average


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Battery is the Key

TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS

IN LIB INDUSTRY

The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming.

Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launch by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago.

LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (19 years ago)

Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (15 years ago).

So, it take between 10 & 20 years to commercialized a new material in the battery industry.

21


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Battery is the Key

22

LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS

2009-2015

10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE

>50 GWh in 2015

A123 Michigan Plant - Photo courtesy of A123 Systems

Liotech Plant, Novosibirsk – 1,5 GWh production capacity 0 500 1000 1500

PANASONIC NISSAN Motor US

Sony BYD

LG Chem JCI

A123 Sanyo Ener1

Nissan-Renault (Fr) Dow Kokam (KD ABG MI)

GS YUASA SB Limotive

Hitachi Vehicle Energy Lithium Energy Japan Rusnano-Thunder Sky

LG Chem - Compact … Nissan - Renault (UK)

Toshiba Blue Energy

Nissan-Renault (Port) Lishen

BAK SAFT US

SAFT Hitachi Vehicle Energy

AESC Japon NEC Tokin (Electrodes)

Mitsubishi H.I. SK Energy

Panasonic EV LiTec GmbH

M$

Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing

Average Investments: 250 $ / kWh


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Battery is the Key

LIB BATTERY COST

Raw material cost (Co, Mn, Ni, Al, Cu, …)

Anode, cathode, Electrolyte , separator, binders, Cu & Al foil, etc… cost structure :

CAPEX,

labor cost,

R&D

Marketing, Adm, Overhead, margin)

Raw material needs / mAh

Electrode process Yield

Assembly Process Yield

Cell manufacturing cost

Module manufacturing cost

Pack assembly cost

…

Costs analysis Battery price in 2011

$/kWh

23

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

LIB 18650

cell

LIB EV Cell

LIB pack for EV

LIB HEV cell

LIB pack for HEV


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Battery is the Key

LI-ION BATTERY COST

2011-2020

LIB cell average cost

(EV design ; NMC cathode)

LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST

FOR EV

24

* For Production > 100 000 packs/year

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2011 2015 2020

$ /

kW

h

Margin

Overheads

Sales & Adm

R&D

Energy, utilities

Direct labor

Depreciation

Others

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode cost

Cathode cost 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Cel

l

Pac

k

Cel

l

Pac

k

Cel

l

Pac

k

$ /

kW

h

Pack Cost

Cell Manufacturing

Other Materials

Electrolyte

Separator

Anode

Cathode 2015* 2020* 2011*


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Battery is the Key

EV FORECASTS

2011-2020

EV sold, in million units,

worldwide, 2010 - 2020

EV impact on the LIB & raw

material market is HUGE

25

IIT, March 2011 Fort Lauderdale

IIT, March 2010 Fort Lauderdale

Deutsche Bank , Electric Cars: Plugged In 2 – Nov 2009

Roland BERGER, Oct 2011, Batteries 2011 Cannes

AAB, AABC Europe, Mainz, June 2011

IIT (March 2010)

AAB

Deutsche Bank

Roland Berger

AVICENNE

IIT (March 2011)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2015 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

4

50

45

400

1000

10000

25000

1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000

Mobile Phone

Portable PC

Power Tools

E-bikes

HEV

P-HEV

EV

Average Wh per device


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Battery is the Key

TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND

2011-2020

EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery

needs (M Wh) 2005 – 2020

Total battery demand (MWh)

2000 – 2025

26

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M

Wh

NiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV

LIB for EV

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

2005 2010 2015 2020

M W

h

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV

LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV


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Battery is the Key

35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN

2020

Micro-hybrids car market

2010-2020

Advantages of micro-hybrid

compare to HEV

27

Powered by Advanced lead acid batteries

Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less)

Much more impact on CO2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020

Mill

ion

Micro-hybrid car sold per year

AVICENNE

Optimistic Scenario

JD Power

Valeo

Micro-hybrid Full HEV

Battery Advanced lead acid

NiMH or LIB

Cost ($) 300 3000

Fuel saving 5% 20%

Million Vehicle sold per year in 2020

35 - 55 4


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Battery is the Key

HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL

BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID

BATTERIES

28

Stand

ard

Lead acid

Batteries

2010 2015 2020 AFTER

Li-ion

batteries

NiM

H b

atte

ries

STANDARD CAR

88.5% EV

P-HEV

FULL

HEV

1%

MILD

HEV

0.5%

MICRO

HYBRIDS

10%

Ad

vanced

Lead acid

(+ EDLC

)

NiM

H

STANDARD CAR

54%

MICRO HYBRID

40%

EV

P-HEV

2%

FULL

HEV

4%

ULTRA

BATTERY Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells Li-ion


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Battery is the Key

TAKEAWAYS

Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices

For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH

LIB begin really to compete in 2012

P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 5 B$ market in 2015 & 9 B$ in 2020

EV expectations attract large Chemical companies

New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards

HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020

P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020

Micro-hybrid will achieve 40%

Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2020 in volume & value

Battery Market 2010-2020

CAGR = +8%

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY

MARKET WORLDWIDE

2000-2020

29

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 M

$

Lead Acid NiCd NiMH LIB

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1990 2000 2010 2020 M

Wh

Lead Acid NiCd NiMH LIB Others


[email protected]


Battery is the Key

THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT

AVICENNE ENERGY

[email protected]

Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00

Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

30

hev, p-hev, and ev market 2011-2025 p-hev and ev market 2011-2025... · 2019-03-18 · christophe...

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