hfip hfip annual review meeting · using the final bug-fixed version of hwrfv3.2 4. successful...

SUMMARY OF HFIP REGIONAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT

Contributors to Talk:

Ji -Wen Bao (ESRL)

Morris Bender (GFDL)

Ligia Bernardet (DTC)

Chris Davis (NCAR)

James Doyle (NRL)

Chris Fairall (ESRL)

Isaac Ginis (URI)

S.G. Gopalakrishnan (HRD)

Alexandr Khain (Hebrew U.)

Young Kwon (EMC)

Vijay Tallapragada (EMC)

HFIP HFIP Annual Review Meeting

Tuesday, November 9th,, Miami, FL

EMC FY10 Status

1. Performed PBL sensitivity tests using different parameters,

such as critical Richardson number and mixing length. Also

test has been done using a local scheme.

2. HWRF with Noah LSM option is running in parallel for the

2010 season and plan to evaluate the performance.

3. Sensitivity test on horizontal diffusion will be conducted

using the final bug-fixed version of HWRFV3.2

4. Successful transition of HWRF version2.0 to version 3.2

with several bug fixes, such as stripes and triple nest

(collaboration with DTC and HRD)

5. Upgrade of the HWRF’s vortex initialization is in progress

in order to get more balanced initial state.

Noah LSM test

HWRF with slab model

HWRF with Noah LSM

P: 939.7hPa

W: 58.4 m/s P: 943.5hPa

W: 74.1 m/s

P: 928.4hPa

W: 77.2 m/s

HWRF/original diffusion

HWRF/reduced diffusion

GFDL model

Track forecast: similar to before Intensity forecast: error reduced.

1. Microphysics:

Calibrate the operational scheme using the output of a bin

microphysics

2. Convection scheme:

Test the new SAS (simplified Arakawa Schubert) and new

shallow convection schemes implemented in 2010 GFS model

(To be tested in both GFDL and HWRF )

3. Triple nest:

Conduct test simulations for 27/9/3km triple nest HWRF with

help of HRD

4. Community Repository:

Continue supporting the community repository version of

HWRF with collaborating with DTC

Future NCEP Work Plan

1. Released Beta version in March.

2. Expanded community code to match 2010 baseline

configuration (H050) and later 2010 operational

configuration

3. Exposed and/or fixed bugs in various components

4. Upcoming:

1. Expand code to match 2011

2. Expand code to third nest

3. Expand code to idealized simulations

4. New HWRF release

High-Resolution HWRFV3.2 SystemHigh Resolution Research version of the HWRF system geared to complement operations

• Improved resolution and improved understanding of forecast at about 1-3 km resolution

• Incorporate observations on vortex scale for improved model initialization

• Incorporate appropriate representation of physical processes in tropics for

1-3 km resolution

Instantaneous snap shot of the “thermal plumes” and the warm core structure

3 km 3 km

Idealized Framework

Advanced Real-Time Products to

support Operations (parallels)

Multiple Moving Domains to Support Operations at 27:09:03

Contributions from HRD: New nest motion algorithm Advanced diagnostics capability (Diapost) Third nest capability Idealized simulations Improved vortex assimilation procedure for operations

Baseline version testing (without coupling) - HRH cases, 2009 and 2010 Atlantic cases

Use results from the 2010 Stream 2 demo (9:3 from HWRFX and HWRFV3.2) as the basis for evaluation at 3 km resolution

Development of coupler for the third nest (EMC) Improved vortex initialization for the third nest (EMC) Retrospective testing of 27:09:03 for Stream 1.5 demo in 2011 and

future operational implementation Test new physics suitable for higher resolutions Integrate the modeling component of research and development

activities at HRD with operational HWRF Synchronize the developmental efforts with DTC repository for

community purpose

1. In general their performance was no better then the

operational regional models for either track or intensity

2. The operational regional models did not do as well as

the best global models for track.

3. As in 2009, high resolution (6 km to 1 km) – alone - did

not produce desired Improvement

4. Continues to suggest the need for development of

physics that can properly resolve physical processes

simulated by the higher resolution

11

WHAT IS THE VERDICT ON HOW WELL WE DID OVERALL?

HFIP REGIONAL MODEL VERIFICATIONS

VS.

CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODELS

(HWRF, GFDL, GFS)

(Through Nov. 7th, 12z)

NORMALIZED TRACK ERROR NORMALIZED INTENSITY ERROR

Operational Regional Models Still not

as good as the statistical models for

Intensity.

HWRF had significant negative bias

GFS global model showed more skill

for Track at Every Time Level(HWRF very poor performance in Tomas

significantly affected its overall seasonal

performance)

Participating Regional models:

– HWRF (Operational) 9km

– GFDL (Operational) 7.5km

– HWRF-x (AOML) 3km

– WRF/ARW/NCAR 1.3km

– WRF/ARW/FSU 4km

– COAMPS-TC 5km

14


HWRFx Neutral or Inferior for Track HWRFx Slightly Improved Intensity


Most Skillful of the Regional Models for

Intensity through 2 Days

COAMPS-TC Regional Model Summary

FY10 Major Accomplishments I

•Diagnosis of 2009 HFIP Real-Time Demo Results

•Nest and diagnostic tracker problems (particularly for weak storms)

• Initialization / spin-up problems early in forecast

•Over-intensification in the latter part of forecast

•Track statistics show a slow and right of track bias

•Spotty convection for weak storms, which is a challenge for the tracker

•New Initialization Development

•Tropical Cyclone Dynamic Initialization (TCDI) development and evaluation

•Experiments with a digital filter option

•Sensitivity tests to synthetic observation specification (size, depth, structure)

•New synthetic observation method developed – Discussions with EMC / HWRF

•New Data Assimilation Capabilities

•3D-Var experiments with SSM/I Total Precipitable Water (TPW) retrievals

• Inclusion of additional satellite wind observations

• Improved super-observation specification (scatterometer obs)

•Development of a COAMPS-TC EnKF capability within DART


FY10 Major Accomplishments II

•Improvements to TC Physical Parameterization

•New version of the NRL microphysics that mitigates over-production of ice

• Implementation and testing of WRF (Thompson) microphysics

• Implementation and testing of new version of Kain-Fritsch (outer 2 meshes)

•Sensitivity tests to formulation of mixing length (Bougeault, M-Y, Klemp-Wil.)

•Dynamical Core Improvements

•Tests done with a semi-Lagrangian selective monotonic advection (SMA)

•Lateral Boundary Conditions

• Improvements and bug fixes to the two-way nesting

•Sensitivity tests for LBCs using NOGAPS and GFS

•Air-Sea Coupled Capability

•Additional coupling infrastructure and evaluation of COAMPS-NCOM system

• Improved ocean data assimilation capability using 3D-Var


FY11 Plans

•Diagnosis of Real-Time 2010 Results

•Analyze statistical performance, diagnose systematic errors

•Improvements to COAMPS-TC System

• Improved initialization (TCDI or new synthetics), possibility of digital filter

•Data assimilation (3D-Var) of more observations, improvements to 3D-Var

• Improvements to air-sea coupling (better integration of NCOM, ocean 3D-Var).

•New microphysics (new NRL microphysics or another scheme)

• Improvements to TKE parameterization (esp. mixing within clouds)

•Retrospective Forecasts with 2011 COAMPS-TC

•Establish skill prior to the 2011 Demo using 500 retro cases for stream 1.5

•2011 Real Time forecasts

•45/15/5 km (or 36/12/4 km) every 6 h for WATL, EPAC, CPAC, WPAC

•COAMPS-TC for the HFIP Multi-Model Ensemble

• Integrate better with HFIP partners; COAMPS-TC code repository for HFIP

•COAMPS-TC Validation Test Report for Navy

1. Delivery time• Forecasts were not finished until t+10• Considered two cycles old at NHC

2. Multiple storms• Could only run one storm per cycle

3. Behavior on 12-km domain• Spurious genesis• Overintensification

4. Size of outer domain• Trouble with recurving storms farther north

5. Physics• Cases of overintensification (Earl)

6. Consistency with EnKF• Currently differing domains and physics could

lead to spurious behavior in forecast

1. Delivery time• Remove 1.33-km nest; use smaller 12-km domain• Estimated 2.5 h completion

2. Multiple storms• Add more nodes for more storms; all forecasts finish at same

time

3. Behavior on 12-km domain• 12-km domain now a buffer between 36 and 4-km domains• Modified Kain-Fritsch trigger function reduces spurious

genesis

4. Size of outer domain• Use larger 36-km domain as outer grid

5. Physics• Overdevelopment decreased on 4-km inner domain• Re-examine use of double-moment scheme

6. Consistency with EnKF• Make domain sizes and physics as close as possible (no 4-km

domain or ocean coupling in EnKF)• Select member nearest ensemble mean for high-res. forecast

REPORT ON RECENT

PHYSICS DEVELOPMENT

24

Wave Model

• Includes effects of wind-wave-current interaction and sea spray

• Allows for different algorithms of sea-state and sea-spray parameterization

Air-sea Interface for

Coupled Hurricane-Wave-Ocean Models

(Possible 1.5 Candidate for GFDL in 2011)

Hurricane Model

Sea state,

SprayWind

Momentum

Flux

Current

SST,

Current

Heat

Fluxes

Atmosphere

Ocean

Ocean Model

25

GFDL Hurricane-Wave-Ocean Model

Hurricane Earl, Initial time: 12Z Aug 30, 2010

Red – GFDE (waves)

Blue – GFDL (operational)

26

Black – no sea spray

Red – with ESRL sea spray

Effect of Sea Spray on Drag Coefficient

in GFDL Hurricane-Wave-Ocean Model

Magenta Triangles: ARW SAS

Brown Triangles : ARW BMJ

Black Triangles : ARW None

Red Circles: HWRF SAS

Yellow Circles: HWRF BMJ

Gray Circles: HWRF None

Max. Surface Wind Speed (m/s) Min. Sea-level Pressure (mb)

HWRF spins up faster than ARW!

The Hebrew University Cloud Model (HUCM)

with imbedded SBM already used

successfully for optimizing the two-moment

bulk microphysics scheme in the Relocatable

Regional Weather Forecast model in Germany

(Seifert et al. 2006)28

29 Seifert et al, 2006)

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS FOR

FUTURE DIRECTION IN REGIONAL

MODELING DEVELOPMENT

With transition of HWRFx to HWRFV3.2 System HFIP Regional

Model Development is at a Crucial Crosswords to achieve its

goals within 5 years to significantly improve intensity skill.

There must be a careful and focused effort over next 3-4 years

to develop physics that will correctly represented hurricane

inner core physics processes that can be adequately resolved

at high resolutions.

Still need to devote resources to find out what is the minimum

horizontal resolution needed to adequately resolve the

hurricane inner core (1km, 2km, 3km ??)

Collaboration between the academic community and NOAA will

be essential to help achieve needed physics improvements.

Closer collaboration is also needed between observational and

model development teams to improve physics (e.g., surface,

micro-physics)

Improvement in physics must be a key HFIP priority

both for Stream 1 and Stream 2 development.

Better coordination and closer collaboration between

all parts of the HFIP community (e.g., NOAA, Navy,

NCAR) remains essential to achieve our goal .

There are a lot of pieces to the puzzle that still

need to be understood, but we can succeed if

we work together !!!!

hfip hfip annual review meeting · using the final bug-fixed version of hwrfv3.2 4. successful...

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