hista 2.1 data: the second generationservices.housingonline.com/nhra_images/julia lavigne.pdf ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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HISTA 2.1 Data:
The Second Generation
Technology & Market Analysis: Mapping & Data Update
2012 Annual Meeting
National Council of Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA)
Chicago, IL September 2012
Julia LaVigne, Ribbon Demographics, LLC
www.ribbondata.com
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HISTA Background
Custom Four-Way Cross Tabulation of households developed by the U.S. Census Bureau specifically for Ribbon Demographics
Annual updates and 5-Year Projections from Nielsen (Claritas)
First developed for Census 2000, 2003 Estimates and 2008 Projections
Households by Income, Size, Tenure & Age
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Cross tabulated data more accurate than
data with estimates or ratios applied
Only source with household size and
income cross tabulated
Allows for more consistent results
Available for large and small areas
HISTA Benefits
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HISTA 2.1
Base: ACS 2006 – 2010 5-Year Period
Current Year Estimates: 2013
Current Year Projections: 2018
2000 data in 2010 geographies for original variables
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Save the ACS!
The ACS is under attack!
What will happen if the ACS is
eliminated?
What will happen if ACS
responses become voluntary?
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HISTA 2.1 Changes
Original HISTA
1. From Census 2000
SF1 Files
2. Available for Census
Tracts, Counties,
States & MSAs
3. Three age groups
4. Seven income
groups, capped at
$60,000+
New HISTA 2.1
1. From Census ACS 2006 – 2010 5-Year Period
2. Available for Census Tracts, Census Places, Counties, States & MSAs
3. Nine age groups
4. Twelve income groups, capped at $200,000+
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HISTA Optional Extras
Original HISTA
1. Nielsen Estimates for Census Places & ZIP Codes
2. Nielsen Estimates for age breakouts above 60 years
3. Nielsen Estimates for income groups broken out above $60,000+
New HISTA 2.1
1. Nielsen Estimates for ZIP Codes
2. Nielsen Estimates for 5- and 6+ person households
3. All other items now part of main HISTA database
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HISTA 2.1
Age Groups
Still has 62 years age break for this common age restriction
15 - 24 Years 55 - 61 Years
25 - 34 Years 62 - 64 Years
35 - 44 Years 65 - 74 Years
45 - 54 Years 75 - 84 Years
85+ Years
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HISTA 2.1
Household Sizes
1 Person
2 Person
3 Person
4 Person
5+ Person
Nielsen Estimates for 5- and 6+persons
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HISTA 2.1
Income Groups $0-10,000 $60,000-74,999
$10,000-19,999 $75,000-99,999
$20,000-29,999 $100,000-124,999
$30,000-39,999 $125,000-149,999
$40,000-49,999 $150,000-199,999
$50,000-59,999 $200,000+
Upper income ranges allow for the analysis of market-rate housing
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HISTA 2.1 Detail
1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-Person 5+-Person
Household Household Household Household Household Total
$0-10,000 351,925 217,725 215,625 162,930 122,840 1,071,045
$10,000-20,000 388,410 264,010 265,960 231,750 191,465 1,341,595
$20,000-30,000 476,325 315,005 271,315 243,250 213,870 1,519,765
$30,000-40,000 479,095 322,000 244,925 213,030 184,070 1,443,120
$40,000-50,000 361,975 301,000 194,340 165,770 145,960 1,169,045
$50,000-60,000 234,155 272,365 158,705 130,350 113,780 909,355
$60,000-75,000 203,885 340,665 178,895 144,980 118,685 987,110
$75,000-100,000 139,470 350,510 166,470 122,115 100,340 878,905
$100,000-125,000 52,575 173,505 76,950 48,230 41,370 392,630
$125,000-150,000 17,270 81,330 37,355 21,395 18,140 175,490
$150,000-200,000 18,635 66,305 32,305 16,945 12,325 146,515
$200,000+ 16,200 42,565 19,425 10,850 7,780 96,820
Total 2,739,920 2,746,985 1,862,270 1,511,595 1,270,625 10,131,395
Renter Households
Age 25-34 Years
2006 - 2010 Average - American Community Survey
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HISTA 2.1 Detail
1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-Person 5+-Person
Household Household Household Household Household Total
$0-10,000 351,925 217,725 215,625 162,930 122,840 1,071,045
$10,000-20,000 388,410 264,010 265,960 231,750 191,465 1,341,595
$20,000-30,000 476,325 315,005 271,315 243,250 213,870 1,519,765
$30,000-40,000 479,095 322,000 244,925 213,030 184,070 1,443,120
$40,000-50,000 361,975 301,000 194,340 165,770 145,960 1,169,045
$50,000-60,000 234,155 272,365 158,705 130,350 113,780 909,355
$60,000-75,000 203,885 340,665 178,895 144,980 118,685 987,110
$75,000-100,000 139,470 350,510 166,470 122,115 100,340 878,905
$100,000-125,000 52,575 173,505 76,950 48,230 41,370 392,630
$125,000-150,000 17,270 81,330 37,355 21,395 18,140 175,490
$150,000-200,000 18,635 66,305 32,305 16,945 12,325 146,515
$200,000+ 16,200 42,565 19,425 10,850 7,780 96,820
Total 2,739,920 2,746,985 1,862,270 1,511,595 1,270,625 10,131,395
Renter Households
Age 25-34 Years
2006 - 2010 Average - American Community Survey
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HISTA Comparison - ACS
One-person renter Households <65 years, $10-20,000
HISTA 2.1 - ACS 2006-2010 1,882,085
ACS 2006-2010
Total householders <65 years, $10-20,000 7,571,779
One-person renter Households <65 years 28%
2,153,603
114%
Total householders <65 years, $10-20,000 7,571,779
Renter rate householders <65 years 37%
One-person renter households 38%
1,048,151
-44%
USA
OR
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HISTA Comparison 2000
Traditional Method
Estimated Households 1,412*
HISTA Data (Actual Census Data)
Census 2000 Households 234
Income range: $20,000 to $40,000
*Overestimated by 1,178 households (503%)
Example 2
Outer Suburban Market AreaCensus 2000 Data
Target population:
Renter households under age 55 years - all household sizes
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Case Study – St. Paul MN Area
What does Demographic Data
tell us about the Study Area?
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Case Study – Population by Age
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Case Study – Five Year Projected Change
by Age
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Under
18
Years
18 to
24
Years
25 to
34
Years
35 to
44
Years
45 to
54
Years
55 to
64
Years
65 to
74
Years
75 to
84
Years
85 Y
ears
and U
p
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Case Study – Households by Income
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Nu
mb
er
of
Ho
us
eh
old
s
Less than
$15,000
$15,000 -
$24,999
$25,000 -
$34,999
$35,000 -
$49,999
$50,000 -
$74,999
$75,000 -
$99,999
$100,000 -
$124,999
$125,000 -
$149,999
$150,000 -
$199,999
$200,000
and up
Estimated Households by Income - 2011
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-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
Nu
mb
er
of
Ho
useh
old
s
Less than
$15,000
$15,000 -
$24,999
$25,000 -
$34,999
$35,000 -
$49,999
$50,000 -
$74,999
$75,000 -
$99,999
$100,000 -
$124,999
$125,000 -
$149,999
$150,000 -
$199,999
$200,000
and up
Estimated Household Income Change 2000 - 2011
Case Study – Five Year Projected Change
by Income
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Case Study – Renters <55 Years
1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-Person 5+-Person
Household Household Household Household Household Total
$0-10,000 513 153 138 118 96 1,018
$10,000-20,000 372 134 162 83 174 925
$20,000-30,000 342 133 81 86 130 772
$30,000-40,000 270 86 64 66 82 568
$40,000-50,000 104 117 4 61 137 423
$50,000-60,000 27 58 91 44 98 318
$60,000-75,000 35 85 72 25 38 255
$75,000-100,000 31 58 68 23 40 220
$100,000-125,000 16 36 42 17 28 139
$125,000-150,000 4 10 13 6 9 42
$150,000-200,000 2 6 6 3 6 23
$200,000+ 4 4 4 1 2 15
Total 1,720 880 745 533 840 4,718
Renter Households
Under Age 55 Years
Current Year Estimates - 2011
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Household Size Income Range
Total Estimated
Households in
Income Ranges
Percent
Households by
Size
1-Person $17,650 - $29,400 409 41%
2-Person $20,150 - $33,600 162 16%
3-Person $22,650 - $37,800 109 11%
4-Person $25,150 - $41,950 120 12%
5+-Person $27,200 - $53,350 192 19%Total: 992 100%
St. Paul MN PMA
Based on HISTA 2011 Estimates
Aged below 55 Years
Renter Households between 30% and 50% AMI
Case Study – Income-Eligible Renters <55 Years
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Household Size Income Range
Total Estimated
Households in
Income Ranges
Percent
Households by
Size
1-Person $17,650 - $29,400 409 41%
2-Person $20,150 - $33,600 162 16%
3-Person $22,650 - $37,800 109 11%
4-Person $25,150 - $41,950 120 12%
5+-Person $27,200 - $53,350 192 19%Total: 992 100%
St. Paul MN PMA
Based on HISTA 2011 Estimates
Aged below 55 Years
Renter Households between 30% and 50% AMI
Case Study – Income-Eligible Renters <55 Years
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Nu
mb
er
Ho
useh
old
s
Below 30%
AMI
30% to 50%
AMI
50% to 80%
AMI
Over 80% AMI
Total Eligible Renter Households Under 55 Years
by AMI Level
Case Study – Income-Eligible Renters <55 Years
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Case Study – Income-Eligible Renters <55 Years
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-Person 5+-Person
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Eligible Households by Size and AMI level
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1-Per
son
2-Per
son
3-Per
son
4-Per
son
5+-P
erso
n
Perc
en
t o
f T
ota
l E
lig
ible
Ho
useh
old
s
<30% AMI
30% - 50% AMI
50% - 80% AMI
80%+ AMI
Case Study – Income-Eligible Renters <55 Years
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Case Study – Projected Change Renters <55 Years
1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-Person 5+-Person
Household Household Household Household Household Total
$0-10,000 -30 -19 -6 -2 -2 -59
$10,000-20,000 -20 -13 -7 -1 2 -39
$20,000-30,000 -27 -12 -5 -3 0 -47
$30,000-40,000 -11 -9 0 -2 2 -20
$40,000-50,000 5 -3 1 0 5 8
$50,000-60,000 0 0 2 2 1 5
$60,000-75,000 0 -7 3 0 5 1
$75,000-100,000 3 0 2 1 1 7
$100,000-125,000 0 2 4 4 2 12
$125,000-150,000 2 0 3 1 3 9
$150,000-200,000 0 0 3 0 2 5
$200,000+ -1 -1 2 0 1 1
Total -79 -62 2 0 22 -117
Five Year Projections - 2011 to 2016
Change in Renter Households
Under Age 55 Years
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Case Study – Senior Renters 55+ Years
1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-Person 5+-Person
Household Household Household Household Household Total
$0-10,000 360 57 14 19 12 462
$10,000-20,000 330 59 30 8 2 429
$20,000-30,000 143 71 5 6 16 241
$30,000-40,000 30 58 27 19 15 149
$40,000-50,000 11 42 13 13 9 88
$50,000-60,000 2 10 5 10 6 33
$60,000-75,000 0 1 4 5 15 25
$75,000-100,000 0 4 4 6 18 32
$100,000-125,000 1 2 4 1 7 15
$125,000-150,000 0 0 3 1 3 7
$150,000-200,000 0 0 1 1 4 6
$200,000+ 0 0 0 4 5 9
Total 877 304 110 93 112 1,496
Current Year Estimates - 2011
Renter Households
Age 55+ Years
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Nu
mb
er
Ho
us
eh
old
s
Below 30%
AMI
30% to 50%
AMI
50% to 80%
AMI
Over 80% AMI
Total Eligible Renter Households Over 55 Years by
AMI Level
Case Study – Income-Eligible Senior Renters 55+ Years
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-
100
200
300
400
500
600
1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-Person 5+-Person
Case Study – Income-Eligible Senior Renters 55+ Years
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Eligible Households by Size and AMI Level - 55+ Years
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1-Per
son
2-Per
son
3-Per
son
4-Per
son
5+-P
erso
n
Perc
en
t o
f T
ota
l E
lig
ible
Ho
us
eh
old
s
<30% AMI
30% - 50% AMI
50% - 80% AMI
80%+ AMI
Case Study – Income-Eligible Senior Renters 55+ Years
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1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-Person 5+-Person
Household Household Household Household Household Total
$0-10,000 5 1 3 0 -1 8
$10,000-20,000 -2 1 0 1 0 0
$20,000-30,000 11 1 0 -2 5 15
$30,000-40,000 0 5 7 5 4 21
$40,000-50,000 2 5 4 1 0 12
$50,000-60,000 -1 2 0 0 0 1
$60,000-75,000 0 0 0 2 0 2
$75,000-100,000 0 0 1 0 9 10
$100,000-125,000 -1 0 1 0 0 0
$125,000-150,000 0 1 1 1 1 4
$150,000-200,000 1 0 -1 0 1 1
$200,000+ 0 1 0 -2 -1 -2
Total 15 17 16 6 18 72
Five Year Projections - 2011 to 2016
Change in Renter Households
Age 55+ Years
Case Study – Projected Change Senior Renters 55+ Years
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Projections?
Is it good practice to rely on projections to
calculate demand?
• These numbers are recent trends projected forward
- how much do changing market conditions impact
their reliability?
• Redevelopment and introduction of new housing units
can reverse population loss trends in cities and
neighborhoods where poor housing contributes to those
losses.
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