Household Projections for Wales (2014-based)

Key points

What are Household Projections?

• Provide an estimate of the number of future households by type, they are not forecasts.

• Calculated based on assumptions about:- Births - Deaths

- Migration - Household formation rates

• Assumptions are generally based on recent trends.

Why are there different variants of Household Projections?

• Assumptions which Household Projections are based on could change in the future.

• To show the uncertainty of future changes variants are produced using alternative assumptions.

• Variants do not signify upper or lower bounds (like confidence intervals): they show what the projections could look like if the assumptions changed.

• This slideshow presents Key results of the Main Household Projections i.e. if recent trends continue.

Household Definitions

Household Definition: One person living alone, or a group of people (not necessarily related) living at the same address who share cooking facilities and share a living room or sitting room or dining area This includes Sheltered Accommodation and people living in caravans on any type of site that is their usual residence.

• In total there are 12 household types, these can be simplified into 5 categories.

• 1-person households

• 2-person households

• 3-person households

• 4-person households

• 5+ person households

Household Types Part 1

The household types are defined by the people who live within them; for example, a 2-adult household with one child would be called a 3-person household.

Household Types Part 2

The number of individuals inhabiting certain households is taken and the population projections are applied to determine the number of inhabitants in those households in the future; for example, 1-adult households are projected to increase significantly. 2039 Projection: 528,099

2014 Base: 415,970

  

Cardiff is projected to have the largest increase (32%) followed by Swansea (17%), Wrexham (15%).

Newport, Gwynedd, Rhondda Cynon Taf, and Gwynedd were between 11 and 13 percent.

Bridgend, the Vale of Glamorgan, Flintshire, Carmarthenshire, Caerphilly and Monmouthshire increase by 5 and 10 per cent.

Household estimates by local authority in 2014 & projected numbers in 2039

Isle of Anglesey

Gwynedd

Conwy

Denbighshire

Flintshire

Wrexham

Powys

Ceredigion

Pembrokeshire

Carmarthenshire

Swansea

Neath Port Talbot

Bridgend

Vale of Glamorgan

Rhondda Cynon Taf

Merthyr Tydfil

Caerphilly

Blaenau Gwent

Torfaen

Monmouthshire

Newport

Cardiff

- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

2039 2014

What can household projections be used for?

• Planning services at national and local level

• Preparation of Local Development Plans

• Identifying trends for future policy development

• Geographic profiling and comparisons

What can’t household projections be used for?

• Do not attempt to predict the effect of future government policies, economic circumstances, or changes in the lifestyle of the population on the projections

• Do not attach any importance to trivial differences between local authorities or between differing years for the same local authority

The full release is available in both Welsh and English. Click the image below of the language of your choice.