houston and montgomery county economic and housing outlook · source: u.s. census bureau, texas...

Houston and Montgomery County Economic and Housing Outlook

Dr. James P. GainesResearch Economist

recenter.tamu.edu

THE CURRENT SITUATION

“The Future Just Ain’t What It Used to Be!”

Yogi Berra

National Economic Recovery still Going …

six years later!

3

U.S. Outlook• Expected GDP growth still modest: 2015 2.8%; personal

consumption 2.5%

• FED and interest rates? When, not if

• Inflation not worrisome: 2015 1.5% - 2.0%, especially

with lower gas prices

• Industrial production data mixed, generally positive

• Housing improving, adding to overall national economy

• Jobs expanding; unemployment rate under 5.5%

• Energy sector & oil prices major issue for the year

4

U.S. Jobs Finally Recovered

109,527108,427108,802

110,935

114,398

117,407

119,836

122,951

126,157

129,240

132,019132,074

130,628130,318131,749

134,005

136,398137,936

137,170

131,233

130,275

131,842

134,104

136,393

139,042

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f J

ob

s

5Sources: BLS, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

2013 + 1.7%

2014 +2.0%

1999-2014 +7.6%!!

Inflation Remains Relatively Low

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%J

an

-71

Jan

-72

Jan

-73

Jan

-74

Jan

-75

Jan

-76

Jan

-77

Jan

-78

Jan

-79

Jan

-80

Jan

-81

Jan

-82

Jan

-83

Jan

-84

Jan

-85

Jan

-86

Jan

-87

Jan

-88

Jan

-89

Jan

-90

Jan

-91

Jan

-92

Jan

-93

Jan

-94

Jan

-95

Jan

-96

Jan

-97

Jan

-98

Jan

-99

Jan

-00

Jan

-01

Jan

-02

Jan

-03

Jan

-04

Jan

-05

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

6Source: BLS, Y/Y % change in index

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items

Source: The Conference Board (1985=100); Haver Analytics

Consumer Confidence Index

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan

-07

Ju

l-07

Jan

-08

Ju

l-08

Jan

-09

Ju

l-09

Jan

-10

Ju

l-10

Jan

-11

Ju

l-11

Jan

-12

Ju

l-12

Jan

-13

Ju

l-13

Jan

-14

Ju

l-14

Jan

-15

Ju

l-15

Jan

-16

Recession

7

U.S.

Expansion

Texas

Oil Prices & Energy• Prices may not have bottomed yet:

• Saudi Arabia continues to protect its market share

• Global oil production will increase before it decreases

• Global oil demand not rapidly increasing even with rapidly-falling prices.

• Expect significant cut back in upstream capital spending on E&P, i.e., fewer wells drilled

• The Texas rig count down >58%: 906 to 412 (10/14 - 7/15)

• Increased geo-political-military volatility among oil producing nations that need (require) $95-$100+ oil price

8

Active Texas Rig Count & Price of WTI

9Source: Baker Hughes; EIA; Haver Analytics

WTI $/bl (right)

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

$130

$140

$150

$160

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1/7

/20

00

3/3

1/2

00

06

/23

/200

09

/15

/200

01

2/8

/200

03

/2/2

001

5/2

5/2

00

18

/17

/200

11

1/9

/200

12

/1/2

002

4/2

6/2

00

27

/19

/200

21

0/1

1/2

00

21

/3/2

003

3/2

8/2

00

36

/20

/200

39

/12

/200

31

2/5

/200

32

/27

/200

45

/21

/200

48

/13

/200

41

1/5

/200

41

/28

/200

54

/22

/200

57

/15

/200

51

0/7

/200

51

2/3

0/2

00

53

/24

/200

66

/16

/200

69

/8/2

006

12/1

/200

62

/23

/200

75

/18

/200

78

/10

/200

71

1/2

/200

71

/25

/200

84

/18

/200

87

/11

/200

81

0/3

/200

81

2/2

6/2

00

83

/20

/200

96

/12

/200

99

/4/2

009

11/2

5/2

00

92

/19

/201

05

/14

/201

08

/6/2

010

10/2

9/2

01

01

/21

/201

14

/15

/201

17

/8/2

011

9/3

0/2

01

11

2/2

2/2

01

13

/16

/201

26

/8/2

012

8/3

1/2

01

21

1/2

1/2

01

22

/15

/201

35

/10

/201

38

/2/2

013

10/2

5/2

01

31

/17

/201

44

/11

/201

47

/3/2

014

9/2

6/2

01

41

2/1

9/2

01

43

/13

/201

56

/5/2

015

Rigs (left)

WTI $/bl (right)

Annual Employment Growth Rates for US, Texas and Houston

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jan

-09

Ma

r-09

Ma

y-0

9

Ju

l-09

Sep

-09

No

v-0

9

Jan

-10

Ma

r-10

Ma

y-1

0

Ju

l-10

Sep

-10

No

v-1

0

Jan

-11

Ma

r-11

Ma

y-1

1

Ju

l-11

Sep

-11

No

v-1

1

Jan

-12

Ma

r-12

Ma

y-1

2

Ju

l-12

Sep

-12

No

v-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

r-13

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-13

Sep

-13

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

10Source: BLS, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Texas

US

Houston

Source: The Conference Board (1985=100); Haver Analytics

Texas Leading Economic Index

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

Jan

-81

Ju

l-81

Jan

-82

Ju

l-82

Jan

-83

Ju

l-83

Jan

-84

Ju

l-84

Jan

-85

Ju

l-85

Jan

-86

Ju

l-86

Jan

-87

Ju

l-87

Jan

-88

Ju

l-88

Jan

-89

Ju

l-89

Jan

-90

Ju

l-90

Jan

-91

Ju

l-91

Jan

-92

Ju

l-92

Jan

-93

Ju

l-93

Jan

-94

Ju

l-94

Jan

-95

Ju

l-95

Jan

-96

Ju

l-96

Jan

-97

Ju

l-97

Jan

-98

Ju

l-98

Jan

-99

Ju

l-99

Jan

-00

Ju

l-00

Jan

-01

Ju

l-01

Jan

-02

Ju

l-02

Jan

-03

Ju

l-03

Jan

-04

Ju

l-04

Jan

-05

Ju

l-05

Jan

-06

Ju

l-06

Jan

-07

Ju

l-07

Jan

-08

Ju

l-08

Jan

-09

Ju

l-09

Jan

-10

Ju

l-10

Jan

-11

Ju

l-11

Jan

-12

Ju

l-12

Jan

-13

Ju

l-13

Jan

-14

Ju

l-14

Jan

-15

Ju

l-15

11

Houston Annual Jobs

1,773,8001,805,4001,807,000

1,840,8001,885,000

1,945,0001,994,400

2,077,900

2,182,4002,217,900

2,271,2002,309,7002,303,8002,289,6002,306,700

2,372,800

2,471,900

2,573,900

2,629,600

2,559,1002,554,500

2,621,400

2,725,600

2,827,500

2,925,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2,200,000

2,400,000

2,600,000

2,800,000

3,000,000

3,200,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

12Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

2012 +4.0%, 104,200 jobs

2013 +3.8%, 101,900 jobs

2014 +3.4%, 97,500 jobs

Jan-June 2015 -5,600 jobs since December

Houston Employment & WTI Price/blMonthly January 1995 to Current

Source: Avg. Monthly WTI Spot Price FOB Cushing, OK; TWC; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Correlation coefficient of 0.26

Jun-14105.79

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

$130

$140

1,700,000

1,800,000

1,900,000

2,000,000

2,100,000

2,200,000

2,300,000

2,400,000

2,500,000

2,600,000

2,700,000

2,800,000

2,900,000

3,000,000

3,100,000

Jan

-95

Jul-

95

Jan

-96

Jul-

96

Jan

-97

Jul-

97

Jan

-98

Jul-

98

Jan

-99

Jul-

99

Jan

-00

Jul-

00

Jan

-01

Jul-

01

Jan

-02

Jul-

02

Jan

-03

Jul-

03

Jan

-04

Jul-

04

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Jan

-14

Jul-

14

Jan

-15

Jul-

15

Number of Jobs NSA WTI $/bl

Major Demographic Trends & Changing Housing Preferences

Aging population• Generational changes

• Lifestyle & life cycle: Gen Y vs. Boomers

Increasing racial/ethnic diversity & cultural shifts

Economic Shift: income & wealth gap • Educated and less well educated

• Age

• Race & Ethnicity

Urban Concentration - urban areas

14

Average Age of Major Life Events

15Source: U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

First Marriage, Males: 28.6 YearsFirst Marriage, Females: 26.6 YearsFirst Child: 26.0 Years

Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050

16Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

F6

-6,200 - 0

1 - 2,000

2,001 - 10,000

10,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 1,000,000

1,000,001 -3,480,000

Houston MSA PopulationAustin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery & Waller Counties

19702,201,849

19803,147,640

19903,767,218

20004,715,407

20105,946,800

20207,700,000

20309,750,000

204011,519,566

205014,221,267

1,500,000

3,500,000

5,500,000

7,500,000

9,500,000

11,500,000

13,500,000

15,500,000

197

0

197

2

197

4

197

6

197

8

198

0

198

2

198

4

198

6

198

8

199

0

199

2

199

4

199

6

199

8

200

0

200

2

200

4

200

6

200

8

201

0

202

0

203

0

204

0

205

0

17Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Texas Demographer’s Office 2014 Projections, 2000-2010 scenario

170.1% increase since 1970

26.1% increase since 2000

Montgomery County Population

18Source: U.S. Census Bureau; 2012 Texas State Demographer’s Office Projections

49,479

455,746

670,077

989,840

1,460,928

2,138,932

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

1970 – 2010 added 406,267

2010 – 2050 add 1,683,186

Biggest Obstacles to Homeownership

All adults 18-34 year-olds only

Saving enough for a down payment 55% 58%

Not having a stable job 36% 43%

Having a poor credit history 35% 33%

Qualifying for a mortgage 32% 29%

Unable to pay off existing debt 26% 30%

Rising home prices 22% 23%

Rising mortgage rates 15% 18%

Limited inventory 5% 5%

Among renters who wish to buy a home right now. Respondents could choose multiple options. Survey conducted November 2013. Trulia Trends, December 2013.

Gen Y Housing Outlook

Gen Y• Emerging Adults

• Plugged in

• Social

• Educated

• Outspoken

• More liberal

• Multicultural

• High performance

• High expectations

• Marry later – buy later

• Fewer children, later

20

Gen Y Housing• Seen the housing collapse

• Currently 51% rent

• 80+% eventually want to buy

• First-time buyers mostly with financial constraints to buying

• Jobs and student debt = less savings for down payment

• First-time buyers <30% vs. historic 40%

• “Gen Rent”

Sources: M. Leanne Lachman and Deborah L. Brett, “Generation Y: America's New Housing Wave,” Urban Land, February 2011,

FNMA National Housing Survey; Pew Research Group; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Number of HHs by Age Group

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,50019

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

30-34 25-29

Source: US Census HVS/Haver Analytics; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Number of HHs: Head of HH 35-44

20,000

20,500

21,000

21,500

22,000

22,500

23,000

23,500

24,000

24,50019

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Source: US Census HVS/Haver Analytics; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Housing

23

Macro Housing Issues

• Demographics: growing, shifting

• Affordability: workforce priced out of ownership

• Capital: more equity

• Infrastructure: transportation, education, utilities

• Development: Design, Density, Resources and Processes

• Regulatory: lending; environmental; land use• Federal• State• Local Growth Controls/Initiatives

Mortgage and 10-Year Treasury Rates

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Ju

l-09

Oct-

09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Ju

l-10

Oct-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Ju

l-11

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Ju

l-12

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Ju

l-13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Ju

l-14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Ju

l-15

Inte

rest

Rat

e %

10-YR Treasury 30-YR FMR Mortgages

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FHLMC; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

26

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000J

an

-00

Ju

l-0

0

Jan

-01

Ju

l-0

1

Jan

-02

Ju

l-0

2

Jan

-03

Ju

l-0

3

Jan

-04

Ju

l-0

4

Jan

-05

Ju

l-0

5

Jan

-06

Ju

l-0

6

Jan

-07

Ju

l-0

7

Jan

-08

Ju

l-0

8

Jan

-09

Ju

l-0

9

Jan

-10

Ju

l-1

0

Jan

-11

Ju

l-1

1

Jan

-12

Ju

l-1

2

Jan

-13

Ju

l-1

3

Jan

-14

Ju

l-1

4

Jan

-15

Ju

l-1

5

Sources: US Census Bureau , NAR, SAAR

New and Existing SF Home Sales U.S.

Existing SF Home Sales(left axis)

New Home Sales(right axis)

New Home Sales 000sExisting Home Sales 000s

New SF Home Starts

1,012970964

779

844

899

811813

1,151

1,309

1,132

888892

1,162

1,4511,433

1,194

852

705663

1,0671,0841,072

1,1791,146

1,081

1,003

895

840

1,030

1,126

1,198

1,076

1,1611,134

1,2711,303

1,2311,273

1,359

1,499

1,610

1,716

1,465

1,046

622

445471

431

535

618648

726

935

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,8001963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

*2015 & 2016 NAHB projections Apr 2015

Source: US Census Bureau; NAHB; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

1963-2002 average per year (1.06 million)

(000s SAAR)

Household Formations and SF Starts

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

HH Formations^ SF Starts*

^ March-to-March Change CPS *NAHB projected 2015

Source: US Census Bureau; NAHB; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Number of Texas Households Added Annually

209,633

196,204

139,779

131,160

117,262112,024

32,833

52,105

105,718

44,952

116,063

137,000

108,000

98,000

162,000

142,000139,000140,000145,886

134,468

93,985

79,278

68,150

156,086

187,242

131,293134,634

178,227

105,689

210,726

111,706

120,589

139,894

171,438

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,0001

98

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

29Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

Average number of households added annually = 126,500

Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Annual Texas Home Sales

109,755

90,798

81,105

69,279

86,28791,340

89,40582,867

87,21892,37089,848

100,04799,619

107,107

116,604122,134121,823

138,123146,395

170,638

184,056188,738

196,401201,528

216,147

241,020

266,842

292,805

275,584

232,381

213,334

203,637205,786

238,060

276,361

284,479

151,904

50,000

70,000

90,000

110,000

130,000

150,000

170,000

190,000

210,000

230,000

250,000

270,000

290,000

310,000

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

1H

20

15

30

2014 up 5%

Second best year ever!

Texas Median Home Prices

68,50068,10071,200

75,20078,20080,00081,600

86,40090,600

96,200100,900

112,100

119,400

124,500127,700

130,100

136,800

143,100147,300146,900

145,800147,600148,800

158,000

172,300

183,700

194,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

$110,000

$120,000

$130,000

$140,000

$150,000

$160,000

$170,000

$180,000

$190,000

$200,000

$210,000

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

1H

2015

Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 31

Texas Months’ Inventory

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Ap

r-01

Ju

l-01

Oct-

01

Jan

-02

Ap

r-02

Ju

l-02

Oct-

02

Jan

-03

Ap

r-03

Ju

l-03

Oct-

03

Jan

-04

Ap

r-04

Ju

l-04

Oct-

04

Jan

-05

Ap

r-05

Ju

l-05

Oct-

05

Jan

-06

Ap

r-06

Ju

l-06

Oct-

06

Jan

-07

Ap

r-07

Ju

l-07

Oct-

07

Jan

-08

Ap

r-08

Ju

l-08

Oct-

08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Ju

l-09

Oct-

09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Ju

l-10

Oct-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Ju

l-11

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Ju

l-12

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Ju

l-13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Ju

l-14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Ju

l-15

Oct-

15

Jan

-16

32Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

Inventory at extremely low level relative to market activity

Texas SF Building Permits

67,87066,161

78,714

103,252

84,565

67,964

59,143

43,975

35,90836,65838,233

46,209

59,543

69,96470,45270,421

83,13282,228

99,912101,928

108,782111,915

122,913

137,493

151,384

166,203

163,032

120,366

81,107

68,23068,170

67,254

81,926

93,478

103,045

53,139

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,0001

98

0

198

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

1H

2…

Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

2014 +10%

1990-2014 average 94,693/year

Houston Annual Home Sales

21,451

14,84915,18713,09113,275

15,06516,495

20,139

29,183

33,443

29,726

33,61732,491

30,08030,78332,37133,386

36,894

40,673

48,767

51,43352,459

53,856

56,563

60,732

66,979

72,800

80,994

77,668

65,169

60,106

56,80758,854

68,643

80,84883,399

37,865

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,0001

97

91

98

01

98

11

98

21

98

31

98

41

98

51

98

61

98

71

98

81

98

91

99

01

99

11

99

21

99

31

99

41

99

51

99

61

99

71

99

81

99

92

00

02

00

12

00

22

00

32

00

42

00

52

00

62

00

72

00

82

00

92

01

02

01

12

01

22

01

32

01

41

H2

01

5

Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

1998-2014 average 64,500

Houston Home Sales & WTI Oil Price Monthly January 1995 to Current

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,0001

0

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

10

0

10

5

11

0

11

5

12

0

12

5

13

0

13

5

14

0

14

5

Mo

nth

ly H

om

e S

ale

s

Monthly WTI Crude Price $/bl

35Source: Haver Analytics; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

Houston Median Home Prices

66,00065,800

72,400

78,40079,90078,20078,30083,000

88,900

94,700

101,100

113,900

121,800

129,700133,100134,300

141,400

148,700151,800

151,800152,000152,700

153,700

163,400

179,600

196,600

210,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

$110,000

$120,000

$130,000

$140,000

$150,000

$160,000

$170,000

$180,000

$190,000

$200,000

$210,000

$220,0001

98

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

1H

20

15


2012 up 6%

2013 up 10%

2014 up 9.5%

Houston Months’ Inventory

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Jan

-00

Ap

r-0

0J

ul-

00

Oc

t-0

0Jan

-01

Ap

r-0

1J

ul-

01

Oc

t-0

1J

an

-02

Ap

r-0

2J

ul-

02

Oc

t-0

2J

an

-03

Ap

r-0

3J

ul-

03

Oc

t-0

3J

an

-04

Ap

r-0

4J

ul-

04

Oc

t-0

4J

an

-05

Ap

r-0

5Ju

l-05

Oc

t-0

5J

an

-06

Ap

r-0

6J

ul-

06

Oc

t-0

6J

an

-07

Ap

r-0

7J

ul-

07

Oc

t-0

7J

an

-08

Ap

r-0

8J

ul-

08

Oct-

08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-0

9J

ul-

09

Oc

t-0

9J

an

-10

Ap

r-1

0J

ul-

10

Oc

t-1

0J

an

-11

Ap

r-1

1J

ul-

11

Oc

t-1

1J

an

-12

Ap

r-1

2J

ul-

12

Oc

t-1

2J

an

-13

Ap

r-13

Ju

l-13

Oc

t-1

3J

an

-14

Ap

r-1

4J

ul-

14

Oc

t-1

4J

an

-15

Ap

r-1

5J

ul-

15

Oc

t-1

5J

an

-16



Houston SF Building Permits

21,160

25,763

30,56330,303

17,820

8,8867,8037,5148,093

9,89410,963

13,53515,15915,66115,76215,873

19,46320,854

25,41425,617

28,169

30,490

34,685

42,040

45,092

51,202

55,159

42,217

28,188

22,36922,328

22,887

28,624

34,543

38,319

19,519

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,0001

98

0

198

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

1H

20

15

Source: U. S. Census Bureau, Real Estate Center

Average since 1995 = 31,677

Houston SF Permits & WTI Price/blMonthly January 1995 to Current

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150

Source: Avg. Monthly WTI Spot Price FOB Cushing, OK; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Houston MF Building Permits

18,310

21,543

42,355

32,495

12,687

4,067

755 2841,041

2,2432,311

3,6673,3413,887

6,690

4,7834,499

11,265

20,189

10,150

7,6316,643

11,382

16,586

10,60210,468

15,733

20,312

14,165

4,7094,858

8,281

14,525

16,649

25,044

10,693

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,0001

98

0

198

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

1H

20

15

2011 +70%

2012 +75%

2013 +15%

2014 +50%


1997-2014 average 12,700

June Sales in Houston Local Market Areas (Y/Y Percent Change)

Source: Texas Realtor® Data Relevance Project Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Conroe

The Woodlands

Willis

Montgomery County Home Sales*

2,6102,771

3,373

4,179 4,2474,526 4,543

4,865

5,639

6,349

7,473

8,447

8,091

6,371

5,924 5,9416,090

7,097

8,7529,006

4,514

500

1,500

2,500

3,500

4,500

5,500

6,500

7,500

8,500

9,5001

99

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

1H

20

15

42

2014 +2.9%;

1H2015 ~2014 pace

* Includes condos and townhomes


June Sales by LMA in Montgomery County(Y/Y Percent Change)


Conroe

The Woodlands

Willis

Splendora

New Caney

Magnolia

Montgomery

June Sales by Zip Code in Montgomery County(Y/Y Percent Change)

Montgomery County


Conroe

The Woodlands

Willis

Splendora

New Caney

Magnolia

Montgomery

Montgomery County Median Home Price

88,10087,60089,700

98,200

113,300115,400120,800

131,200136,100

139,500143,200143,400

157,700163,300

171,300175,300177,200178,900

184,300

193,800

212,500

233,300239,250

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

$110,000

$120,000

$130,000

$140,000

$150,000

$160,000

$170,000

$180,000

$190,000

$200,000

$210,000

$220,000

$230,000

$240,000

$250,0001993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

199

9

2000

2001

2002

2003

200

4

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

1H

2015


Annual average increase of 4.3% 1993-2012

2012 +5.2%; 2013 +9.6%; 2014 +9.7%

Montgomery County Median Home Price12-Month Moving Average

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000J

an

-95

Ju

l-95

Jan

-96

Ju

l-96

Jan

-97

Ju

l-97

Jan

-98

Ju

l-98

Jan

-99

Ju

l-99

Jan

-00

Ju

l-00

Jan

-01

Ju

l-01

Jan

-02

Ju

l-02

Jan

-03

Ju

l-03

Jan

-04

Ju

l-04

Jan

-05

Ju

l-05

Jan

-06

Ju

l-06

Jan

-07

Ju

l-07

Jan

-08

Ju

l-08

Jan

-09

Ju

l-09

Jan

-10

Ju

l-10

Jan

-11

Ju

l-11

Jan

-12

Ju

l-12

Jan

-13

Ju

l-13

Jan

-14

Ju

l-14

Jan

-15

Ju

l-15

Jan

-16

46Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

June Average Price/sq.ft. by LMA in Montgomery County

(Y/Y Percent Change)


Willis

Montgomery County

Conroe

The Woodlands

Splendora

New Caney

Magnolia

Montgomery

June Average Price/sq.ft. by Zip Code in Montgomery County

(Y/Y Percent Change)


Willis

Montgomery County

Conroe

The Woodlands

Splendora

New Caney

Magnolia

Montgomery

Montgomery County Months’ Inventory

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Jan

-00

Ap

r-00

Ju

l-00

Oct-

00

Jan

-01

Ap

r-01

Ju

l-01

Oct-

01

Jan

-02

Ap

r-02

Ju

l-02

Oct-

02

Jan

-03

Ap

r-03

Ju

l-03

Oct-

03

Jan

-04

Ap

r-04

Ju

l-04

Oct-

04

Jan

-05

Ap

r-05

Ju

l-05

Oct-

05

Jan

-06

Ap

r-06

Ju

l-06

Oct-

06

Jan

-07

Ap

r-07

Ju

l-07

Oct-

07

Jan

-08

Ap

r-08

Ju

l-08

Oct-

08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Ju

l-09

Oct-

09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Ju

l-10

Oct-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Ju

l-11

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Ju

l-12

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Ju

l-13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Ju

l-14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Ju

l-15

Oct-

15

Jan

-16



Montgomery Co. SF Building Permits

1,6031,769

1,9922,232

2,496

3,2593,110

3,674

4,493

4,067 3,997

4,497

5,581

6,023

6,586

7,417

5,074

3,583

2,773 2,723 2,795

3,364

4,976

5,511

2,642

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,0001

99

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

1H

20

15


2013 +48%

2014 +11%

1H2015 -10%

Houston and Montgomery County Economic and Housing Outlook

Dr. James P. GainesResearch Economist

recenter.tamu.edu

houston and montgomery county economic and housing outlook · source: u.s. census bureau, texas...

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