HIGH SPEED RAIL IN AUSTRALIA:DEBUNKING THE MYTHS

Matt McInnes, MILTMarch 2015

CONTENTS

• Population: density & distribution, propensity to use the train• Costs• Mindset• Summary

Route Distance Time Combined Population

Spain Barcelona – Madrid 621km 2hrs 30 5M (current)

Japan Tokyo - Osaka 515km 2hrs 25 15M (1960s)

Australia Melbourne – Sydney Sydney - Brisbane

700- 800km~750km

3hrs 18M (2040)12M (2040)

POPULATION:DISTRIBUTION AND DENSITY

• Melbourne/Sydney ~7M passenger journeys per annum (5th busiest air travel route in world in 2012)

• London/Paris and Barcelona/Madrid held this accolade prior to high speed rail

• Sydney/ Brisbane in top 10 global air routes• Significant demand into other centres (Canberra, Newcastle, regional

cities)• Journey time (city centre to city centre) is over 3 hours

These are the precise conditions that allowed other countries to set up successful high speed rail networks.

POPULATION:PROPENSITY TO TRAVEL

COSTS

• Not cheap, HSR is a significant financial cost• Phase 2 report estimates $114Bn• BZE $84Bn• ARA/Aurecon $63Bn

But…

Costs avoided: $10Bn new Sydney airport (delay ~30 yrs)Economic benefits: economic development, less unproductive time in planes

And…

If necessary, reduced financial burden to the state:• Private finance options • Hypothecated future capital gains or stamp duty tax on property windfall

The costs needn’t be the reason not to do this

MINDSET

• Population wedded to car and plane, no train mindset• Exactly as per Japan in 1960s, French in 1980s, Germans/Spanish 1990s,

Chinese 2000s• Cases (e.g. Paris/Brussels) where plane has been largely phased out• Current journey time comparable between modes, future journey time will

improve with train (worsen for plane with air congestion)• Journey much more productive

But…• Not plane versus train • Air France/KLM operates rail services between Paris & Brussels• Virgin & Qantas & others should compete to offer rail services (better

opportunities for service than plane)• CBR already seeking to become high speed rail hub (e.g. LAX – CBR

services, code share HSR and airline?)

Nothing to excite potential passengers about rail travel YET – the mindset will change.

SUMMARY

• As an industry we need to get behind the concept (in principle)• Let’s not in-fight on the details (alignment, traction type, etc.)• Should not be train versus road versus plane – each mode has its place

(e.g. HSR allows existing lines to be freight-dedicated)

Next steps:• Establish authority (lobby governments)• The authority should reserve corridors• Detailed planning can commence

Thank youAny questions?