hydrology for the environment, life and policy ( help ) goal to deliver social, economic and...
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Real peopleReal catchmentsReal answersHELP
Hydrology for the Environment, Life and Policy
Hydrologyfor the Environment,
Life and Policy ( HELP )GOAL
To deliver social, economic and environmental benefit to stakeholders through sustainable and appropriate use of water by
directing hydrological science towards improved integrated catchment management
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Hydrology for the Environment, Life and Policy
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Rising international concernRising international concern, e.g.UN ACC SWR 17th Session, Paris Oct. 1996BHS, Exeter, July 1998: request UNESCO/WMO consider 2nd IHD
UNESCO Meeting, Wallingford, Dec. 1998UNESCO Meeting, Wallingford, Dec. 1998 new policy-driven hydrological initiative needed
55thth Joint UNESCO/WMO Int. Hydrology Conf., Geneva, Feb. 1999 Joint UNESCO/WMO Int. Hydrology Conf., Geneva, Feb. 1999 HELP unanimously endorsed
WMO Congress, Geneva, June 1999WMO Congress, Geneva, June 1999Terms of Reference for HELP Taskforce defined
First HELP Task force meeting, Tucson, Nov. 1999First HELP Task force meeting, Tucson, Nov. 199945 participants define the scope and nature of HELP
HELP: Background
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WHAT IS THE REQUIRED PRODUCT?WHAT IS THE REQUIRED PRODUCT?
hydrological research which is directly responsive to water-related
policy and development issues.
WHAT IS THE NATURE OF THE INITIATIVE?WHAT IS THE NATURE OF THE INITIATIVE?
a global network of experimental hydrological catchments in a range
of bio-climatic zones and socio-economic conditions freely exchanging
data and understanding
HOW WILL IT OPERATE?HOW WILL IT OPERATE? multi-disciplinary, involving mangers, policy makers and scientists “bottom up” selection of the science to be undertaken use existing networks where possible complementary to other water-related international programmes new data and knowledge, and capacity building, if required
HELP: The Essence
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BREAK THE “PARADIGM LOCK”:BREAK THE “PARADIGM LOCK”:
Water related observations will be collected in
large catchments. Not just physical measurements
(e.g. precipitation and river flow) but sociological,
economic, and legal data
BUILD A FRAMEWORK:BUILD A FRAMEWORK:
This will allow water law and policy experts, water
resources managers and water scientists to work
on water-related problems
FOCUS RESULTS:FOCUS RESULTS:
The involvement of stakeholders will produce
results that are directly beneficial to society’s needs
Process hydrology Water managers and stakeholders
ideasresearch
understanding implementation
outputdesign
Isolated by lack ofproven utility
Isolated by legal and professional precedence
Acceptedpractices
HELP: Key Objectives
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Water and climateWater and climate
Water and foodWater and food
Water quality and human healthWater quality and human health
Water and the environmentWater and the environment
Water and conflictWater and conflict
HELP: Policy Issues
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0.2 DataTheory
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Value of variable
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1. 1. Obtain observed time seriesObtain observed time series for a variablefor a variable (e.g. runoff) (e.g. runoff)
2. 2. Express data as a frequencyExpress data as a frequency of occurrence spectrumof occurrence spectrum
3. 3. Assume a “theoretical equation” forAssume a “theoretical equation” for spectrum, with unknown parametersspectrum, with unknown parameters
4. 4. Select "best" equation and optimizeSelect "best" equation and optimize the unknown parametersthe unknown parameters
5. 5. Use knowledge of selected "best“Use knowledge of selected "best“ equation to estimateequation to estimate e.g. One in 10-year 7-day-average low flow, Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves, 100-year flood, etc….
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HELP: Hydrological Risks
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HELP: Hydrological Risks
CURRENT BASIS OF HYDROLOGICALCURRENT BASIS OF HYDROLOGICALMANAGEMENT AND DESIGNMANAGEMENT AND DESIGN
The statistical properties of the hydrological variables:
do not change with time
are adequately sampled over a few decades
are entirely “random” in origin
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……based on outdated knowledge and technology
Process hydrology Water managers and stakeholders
ideasresearch
understanding implementation
outputdesign
Isolated by lack of proven utility
Isolated by legal and professional precedence
Acceptedpractices
HELP: The Paradigm Lock
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Flood prediction:Flood prediction:
USAUSA: "Bulletin 17B": "Bulletin 17B" (USGS, Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1976/81/82) "Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency“ [recommends use of the "log-Pearson Type 3" Distribution]
UKUK: "Flood Studies Report" : "Flood Studies Report" (National Environment Research Council, (National Environment Research Council, 19751975)) "Volume 1, Hydrological Studies" [recommends the "Generalized Extreme Value" Distribution
Rainfall Frequency SpectraRainfall Frequency Spectra: "TP- 40" : "TP- 40" ((US Weather BureauUS Weather Bureau, , 19611961))
"Rainfall Frequency Atlas for the US for Durations from 0.5- 24 hours and Return Periods of 1 -100 year."
Irrigation NeedsIrrigation Needs: "IDP 24" : "IDP 24" ((UN Food and Agriculture OrganisationUN Food and Agriculture Organisation, , 19771977))
"Crop Water Requirements"
HELP: Examples of Paradigm Lock
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100000
200000
60 90
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30 60
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Inflow(m 3 x 10 5 )
Time (Years)
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0 30 60 900
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Inflow(m 3 x 10 5 )
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Design Record Application Period
DamFailure
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100000
200000Dam Full
Dam Empty
HELP: Dam Design/Management
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Rainfall departures for Nov 1997- April 1998Rainfall departures for Nov 1997- April 1998(From BAMS, 1999, 80, 1 - 48)
HELP: ENSO Rainfall Anomalies
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Correlation between rainfall and Atlantic cross ITCZ differenceCorrelation between rainfall and Atlantic cross ITCZ difference(From Servain, J. Geophys. Res. 1991)
HELP: Atlantic SST and Rainfall
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Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in10 Warm ENSO Years (1949-92)
Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in10 Cool ENSO Years (1949-92)
HELP: ENSO and Hurricanes
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ENSO Sea Surface Temperature (°C)
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tren
gth
of
All-
Ind
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on
soo
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ain
fall
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0
-2 0 +1 +2-1
-100
-200
+100
HELP: ENSO-Monsoon Linkage
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Strength of Indian Rainfall Variations
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Strength of ENSO Variations
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1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980
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Strength of Correlation between Indian Rainfall and ENSO
(Torrence and Webster 1997)
HELP: Decadal Variability
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HELP: Accelerating Water Cycle?
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Value of Variable
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0.0Value of Variable
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Observations may suggest sub-grouping the frequency distributionsObservations may suggest sub-grouping the frequency distributionse.g. summer (convective) and winter (frontal) rainfalle.g. summer (convective) and winter (frontal) rainfall
So far, only local and regional observations have beenSo far, only local and regional observations have beenused to sub-group frequency distributionsused to sub-group frequency distributions
But global variability indices could be used
HELP: Hydrological Risks
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Remotely Sensed Data
Re-analysis Data Sets
Internet-Based Transfer of
Data and Understanding
Aircraft & Shipsof Convenience
Catchment Monitoring
OceanBouys
HydologicalData Rescue
Global-HELP: The Global Interface
OceanBuoys
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""How can knowledge, understanding, and predictiveHow can knowledge, understanding, and predictive modelingmodeling of the influence of the influence of global variability and of global variability and
changechange on hydrological variables on hydrological variables andandremotely sensed data be usedremotely sensed data be used to improve to improve
the management and design of water resourcethe management and design of water resource, , agro-hydrologic and eco-hydrologic systems?" agro-hydrologic and eco-hydrologic systems?"
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Global-HELP: Overarching Question
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How significant are the Links Between Global and Catchment Data?How significant are the Links Between Global and Catchment Data?
How significant is the relationship between the statistics of hydrological variables and observable global phenomena, and how does this change with location?
How Can Remotely Sensed Data and Advanced Data Transfer be Used?How Can Remotely Sensed Data and Advanced Data Transfer be Used?
How can remote data capture, and advanced information transfer technologies best be applied to improve the management and design of water systems?
Can Seasonal-to-Interannual Variations be Used?Can Seasonal-to-Interannual Variations be Used?
How can predictions of seasonal-to-interannual variations be used to improve the management of water?
How Can Knowledge of Multi-Decadal Fluctuations be Used?How Can Knowledge of Multi-Decadal Fluctuations be Used?
How significant are multi-decadal fluctuations in climate, and how can knowledge of such fluctuations be used to improve the design of water systems?
How Can Predictions of Anthropogenic Climate Change be Used?How Can Predictions of Anthropogenic Climate Change be Used?
What is the hydrological significance of anthropogenic climate change, and how can predictions of such change best be used to improve design of water systems?
Global-HELP: Subsidiary Questions
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HELP is founded on a global network of catchmentsHELP is founded on a global network of catchments
National/local authorities can suggest catchments for inclusionNational/local authorities can suggest catchments for inclusion
Catchments must:Catchments must: Provide an opportunity to study a water policy or management
issue for which hydrologic process studies are needed Agree to gather and openly share baseline physical and
relevant socio-economic-legal data within the network Commit to providing adequate and sustained local capacity to
further the programme
Benefits of inclusion are:Benefits of inclusion are: Access to new data acquisition and analysis methods Sharing of expertise Access to data from other HELP catchments Opportunities for funding and capacity building
HELP: How does it work?
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United KingdomUnited KingdomLowland Catchment Research (LOWCAR) and Catchment Hydrology and Sustainable Management (CHASM) catchments
JapanJapanYasu River basin (HELP steering committee established and project planning started)
Germany:Germany:Global change of the water cycle (GLOWA) catchment on the Danube with federal government funding
International Water Management Institute (Sri Lanka)International Water Management Institute (Sri Lanka)Existing water resource management catchments in Turkey, Asia and Africa
Other?Other?
HELP: Initial Activities
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International Hydrology Programme (IHP-VI) e.g. FRIENDInternational Hydrology Programme (IHP-VI) e.g. FRIENDExpand river flow understanding to the entire catchment water balance, including studies of water quality and social issues
World Water Vision and Global Water Partnership:World Water Vision and Global Water Partnership:HELP is a deliver mechanism for the “Framework for Action”
WCRP (e.g. GEWEX and CLIVAR)WCRP (e.g. GEWEX and CLIVAR)HELP will provide long-term, global, ground-based measurements to test large scale models and remote sensing techniques
IGBP:IGBP:Interaction through initiatives,“Water Cycle”, “Food and Fiber”:
GTOS/WYCOS:GTOS/WYCOS:Opportunities to interact constructively in global data collection
HELP: Relationships
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Water and Water and Water Quality Water and Water and Climate Food and Health Environment Conflict
HELP : Policy Issues
Global-HELP: Global Science Programs
WCRP IGBPGCTEBAHCGEWEX CLIVAR
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Water and Climate
HELP : Policy Issue
WCRPGEWEX CLIVAR
Global-HELP: WCRP Programs
COLLABORATINGCOLLABORATINGMECHANISMSMECHANISMS
1. JOINT RESEARCH
WCRP Focus: new understanding and
predictive products
HELP Focus:their potential use in catchment systems
3. Exchange of Data
4. Joint Scientific Meetings
4. Capacity Building in Developing Countries
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Global-HELP: WCRP Programs
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OCEAN BASIN DYNAMICS (including ENSO)WORLD OCEAN CIRCULATIONSEA & LAND ICECOUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE-ICE MODELS
SLOW Climate Processes
CL
IVA
RFAST Climate Processes
RADIATIONCLOUDRAIN & EVAPORATIONLAND SURFACE PROCESSESWEATHER & HYDROLOGIC PREDICTIONG
EW
EX
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Global-HELP: GEWEX Global Data
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Radiation Water Vapor
Precipitation
Global-HELP: GEWEX CSEs
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Rainfall departures for Nov 1997- April 1998Rainfall departures for Nov 1997- April 1998“By 2005, to demonstrate
predictability in water resources on time scales
of seasonal to annual”
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Global-HELP: Extending Predictability
Global-HELP: GEWEX/CLIVAR Modeling
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GEWEX and CLIVAR:Multi-member ensemble runs of high resolution, global, coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models
HELP:Calibration of these mesoscale predictions against catchment-specific climatology
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Global-HELP: CLIVAR Linkage
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··CLIVAR-GOALSCLIVAR-GOALS will develop new, predictable, oceanic “indexes”with statistical links to the hydrological variablesin individual HELP catchments that can be usedto benefit water management
CLIVAR-DecCenCLIVAR-DecCenwill provide documentation and understanding oflonger-term climatic variations in individual HELP catchments that can be used to refine the designcriteria for water systems
CLIVAR-ACCCLIVAR-ACCwill provide more credible and accurate predictions oflong-term anthropogenic change in the climate systemin individual HELP catchments that can be used to assess the vulnerability of current or proposed water systems