hydrometeorological prediction center (hpc) forecast operations branch michael eckert senior branch...
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Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC)
Forecast Operations Branch
Michael Eckert
Senior Branch Forecaster
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Who/What is HPC?
• NOT headquarters • Part of NCEP & co-located with EMC, CPC, NCO, OPC, and NESDIS
• Access to tremendous amounts of model data (too much?)
• Work on a national scale
• Resource to field forecasts, partners & customers
• Forecast Operations Branch• 30 Meteorologists, 2 Met Techs
• Development & Training Branch• 6 Meteorologists/programmers (includes the SOO)
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Partners & Customers
• NWS Field offices – WFOs, RFCs & CWSUs
• Other NCEP centers – OPC, TPC, AWC, SPC, EMC, NCO & CPC
• Federal Agencies - DHS/FEMA, COE, FAA, NTSB, DoD, EPA, White House
• State Agencies – EMA, water resources, flood management & DOT
• Media – TV, Radio, Internet, newspapers, wire services (AP/UPI)
• Private Sector – data vendors, forecast services, utilities, forensics, retailers, researchers
• Aviation – General aviation, AWC
• Academia – Universities & colleges
• International – MET services, media, travelers
• General Public – Analysis/forecast products
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NWS OPERATIONAL
FORECAST OFFICES
(CWSUs not depicted)
WFOs
RFCs
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Collaboration(increasingly more important past 2-3 years)
Several combination of players
• WFO – WFO
• WFO – RFC
• RFC – HPC
• WFO – HPC
• HPC – TPC
• WFO – SPC
• HPC - SPC
• hpc_LEAD
• hpc_QPF1
• hpc_QPF2
• hpc_MEDR
• hpc_bawx
• hpc_SFC
• hpc_wwd
• hpc_MDLDIAG
HPC IDs
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Products HPC Issues• QPF
• 6 hourly through D3• 48 hr QPF D4-5• QPFPFD
• Flood Products• Excessive Rainfall (94e)• QPFERD• River Flood Outlook
• Winter Weather (9/15 - 5/15)• Snow/ZR Probability• Snow/ZR accumulation thru D3• QPFHSD• Winter Storm Summaries• Low Track
• 3 hourly Surface Analyses• Short Range (D 1-2)
• Fronts/Pressures• Instantaneous Pcpn & Pcpn Type
• Medium Range (D3-7)• 24 hr Front/Pressures• Max/Min/12 hr PoPs• PREEPD and PMDEPD• Hawaii Narrative
• Model Diagnostics• 500mb prog for West/E Pac• PMDHMD• PMDEPD• NDFD Chat Coordination
• Tropical Weather (6/1 – 11/30)• Backup/guidance for TPC• Public Advisories for inland tropical
systems• South Amer. & Caribbean text
products• Selected Cities/Travelers• Daily Weather Map• Air Quality Narrative (summer)
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HPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCTS
• Model Diagnostics Desk• Prelim Day 3-7 Frontal Progs 0900 Z• Prelim PREEPD 0900 Z
• Medium Range Pressure/Fronts• Prelim Day 3-7 500 mb Progs 1130 Z• Updated Day 3-7 Frontal Progs 1315 Z• Updated PREEPD 1400 Z• Targeted Observations (seasonal) 1430 Z• Tropical Hotline Call (seasonal) Noon ET• Final Day 3-7 Fronts/500mb Progs 1900 Z• PMDEPD (Final) 1930 Z
• Medium Range Temps/PoPs/QPF• Hawaiian 1-7 Day Discussion 1130 Z• Morning Day 4/5 and 1-5 QPF 1200 Z• Prelim Day 3-7 Min/Max/PoPs 1400 Z• Prelim Medium Range Grids 500 Z• Final Day 3-7 Min/Max/PoPs 1900 Z• Final Medium Range Grids 2000 Z• Afternoon Day 4/5 and 1-5 QPF 2300 Z
Two Forecaster Team
Hours 1030-1930 Z
Operates 24/7
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PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS USED BY HPCMODEL RUN TIME RUN DURATION MIN HORIZONTAL MEMBERS (UTC) (DAYS) GRID SPACING (KM) PER DAY
DGEX 6,18 8 12 2
ECMWF 0,12 10 15 2
ECM ENS 12 10 30 51
GFS 0,6,12,18 16 35 4
CANADA 0,12 10/6 35 2
NOGAPS 0,12 6 55 2
UKMET 0,12 6 60 2
NGPS ENS 0 10 85 10
CAN ENS 0 10 90 17
GFS ENS 0,6,12,18 16 105 60
152 / DAY!
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EMC
MODEL SCORES CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
ON A DAILY BASIS. IT’S OFTEN DIFFICULT TO
IDENTIFY IN ADVANCE MODELS THAT ARE HAVING A BAD DAY
Bad Day
Model verification
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Skill improvementsDay 7 = Day 3 from 1976 & Day 5 from 1996 Day 5 = day 3 from 1996
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EMC
WINTER 2004-2005SUMMER
2005
NCEP AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS (SOLID LINES) MAINTAIN SKILL LONGER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE WARM SEASON
THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SCORE VERY WELL IN THE COLD SEASON THRU THE
MEDIUM RANGE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 500 MB A.C. SCORES
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HPC HAS LIMITED INTERNET ACCESS TO ECMWF ENSEMBLES THRU DAY 9
HPC MASTERBLENDER (PMSL/500 MB/QPF ETC.)
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Days 3-7 Surface Progs
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Day 3-7 500mb progs
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Day 1-5 QPF
Issued twice daily
00z & 12z
Day 4-5 QPF
Issued twice daily
00z & 12z
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HPC 5 KM GRIDDED MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS
MIN TEMPS MAX TEMPS WINDS 12 HOUR POPS
DEWPOINTS CLOUD COVER WEATHER TYPE
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DAY 5 MAX TEMP
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
3 4 5 6 7
MINMAXPOPOVERALL 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH EAST
MINMAXPOP
BIG HPC CHANGES
TO GFS MOS
2004
BIGGER HPC IMPROVEMENT OVER GFS MOS BECOMES EVIDENT AT A MORE REGIONAL
LEVEL
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HPC SHORT RANGE PRODUCTS
• Surface progs• Lows & Highs• Fronts• Isobars• Precipitation coverage/intensity
• Valid Times• 12, 18, 24, 30, 36 & 48 Hours (from model initialization time)
• Low Tracks (thru 72 hours)
One Forecaster
0000 – 0900z1200 – 2100z
Two shifts per day
Used heavily by:
AWC
Private Weather companies
TV stations
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12 Hour Surface Prog
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Low Tracks Forecast (winter only)
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Low track verification(GFS-NAM mix is best)
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Surface Analysis
• Every 3 hours
• Collaboration with OPC & TPC
• HPC Coverage is North America
• National Forecast Chart
• Quick look at US Weather
• Once per day (10Z)
• Storm summaries
• Inland Tropical Systems
• Well organized Winter storms
• Up to 4 times each day
• 02z, 08z, 14z & 22z
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Surface Analysis
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National Forecast Chart
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STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 3 FOR SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WINTER STORMNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD1000 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007
...PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...
ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE NOW EXPIRED.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
SNOW ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
ONE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTIN COUNTY IN NORTH CAROLINA.
AT 10 PM EST...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE CAROLINAS...GEORGIA...AND INTO FLORIDA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. NEARLY ALL OBSERVATIONS WERE REPORTING JUST LIGHT RAIN...WITH ONLY A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET.
...SELECTED STORM SNOW TOTALS IN INCHES AS OF 9 PM EST THURSDAY...
Storm Summary
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Model Diagnostics Discussion
• Two discussions each day (no graphics)• 0530z & 1730z
• Resolve differences between models and ensemble solutions
• Model initialization…
• Model trends...
• Model differences and preferences…
• Summer Air quality discussion (conference call as needed)
• CARCAH (Chief, Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, All Hurricanes)• USAF Reserve Flying squadron• Winter storm reconnaissance for Gulf/East Coast winter storms
• Midnight shift also produces preliminary medium range forecasts• Fronts & Pressures• Preliminary EPD
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Winter Weather
• Snow and ice accumulations
• Days 1, 2 & 3
• Probabilistic Accumulations
• Low, Moderate & High Risk
• 4”, 8”, 12” snow and 0.25” ice
• Impact Graphics
• Based solely on SREF members
• Eta, WRF & RSM
• Surface Visibility
• Snow rate
• Duration
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Probabilistic Snow Forecast
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Impact Graphics
Snowfall Rate >1” per hour
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Internal Snow Collaboration amounts
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Internal Ice Collaboration amounts
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Tropical Weather
• Backup to TPC
• Second opinion for TPC
• Track forecast for west of 60W
• E of 60W handled by OPC
• HPC forecast based on non-tropical models
• 03, 09, 15 & 21z
• Rainfall statement for public advisories
• Public advisories
• After system is below TS status
• While heavy rain threat exists
• US & Mexico
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International Forecast Desk
• Training visitors in the use of NWP
• Central, South American & Caribbean
• Assist HPC forecaster with QPF related to tropical cyclones
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Miscellaneous Duties
• Selected cities (twice each day)
• Travelers (twice each day)
• Daily Weather map
• Significant River Flood Outlook
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QPF
• Six hour QPF through Day 3
• Day 1 & 2 – 06, 10, 18 & 22z
• Day 3 – 10 & 22z
• 24 hour QPF through Day 3
• Day 1 & 2 – 06, 10, 18 & 22z
• Day 3 – 10 & 22z
• CONUS, Columbia & Rio Grande Rivers
• Fuel for RFC hydrologic models
• Fuel for NDFD (future)
• Work closely with SAB
• Satellite Briefings
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QPF
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QPF (verification)
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QPF (verification)
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Excessive Rainfall
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Little or no threat
• Rainfall not expected to exceed FFG
• No excessive rainfall is expected during the forecast time period
• SEE TEXT
• < 5% chance of rainfall exceeding FFG
• Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding FFG
• 5% - 10% chance of rainfall exceeding FFGDelineated by a green arrow/line encompassing an area
Slight Risk
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Moderate & High Risk
• Moderate Risk of rainfall exceeding FFG
• 10% - 15% chance of rainfall exceeding FFG
• Delineated by a blue arrow/line encompassing an area
• High Risk of rainfall exceeding FFG
• >15% chance of rainfall exceeding FFG
• Delineated by a red arrow/line encompassing an area
Moderate Risk High Risk
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Total Rainfall > 5 inches
• Threat of 5 or more inches of rain during the forecast period
• Used mostly for:
• Well organized MCS
• Tropical systems
• Persistent overrunning events
5 Inch
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What is the Flash Flood Guidance??
• Defined as a specific rainfall amount, in a specific time period, that will result in flash flooding
• One, three, six and twelve hour FFG values are provided daily by RFCs
• At HPC we focus on the one and three hour FFG
• 6 & 12 hour FFG values represent time periods too long to accurately define a flash flood
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1 or 3 hour FFG?
• Very difficult question to answer
• Different answer for each event & day
• One hour FFG generally used for convective rainfall
• Three hour FFG generally used for convective/stratiform rainfall
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FFG
• Can be misleading at times
• Based on county average
• 5km values are run experimentally once per day
• RFCs don’t have an agreed upon method for computing FFG
• FFG in steep terrain & urban areas is not very useful
• FFG is constantly changing, especially during periods of heavy rainfall
• High FFG does not necessarily mean a low excessive rainfall threat
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Issue/Valid Times
• 00 UTC 00 UTC to 00 UTC (24 hours) (Optional)
• 03 UTC 03 UTC to 00 UTC (21 hours)
• 06 UTC 06 UTC to 12 UTC (30 hours)
• 12 UTC 12 UTC to 12 UTC (24 hours) (Optional)
• 15 UTC 15 UTC to 12 UTC (21 hours)
• 18 UTC 18 UTC to 00 UTC (30 hours)
• 21 UTC 21 UTC to 00 UTC (27 hours) (Optional)