Policy oriented study on remote sensing agricultural drought monitoring methods

Activity 5.5.

Prof. János Tamás 2nd IDMP CEE Workshop Ljubljana, 8 – 9 April 2014

Partners & Outputs

Key qualifications of partners

• Hungary (University of Debrecen and GWP HU):

– Applied hydrological remote sensing and GIS;

– Spatial Decision Supporting Systems

• Romania (University of Oradea):

- Geography and Integrated watershed management

• Slovakia (Institute of Hydrology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences):

- Agricultural water management, Soil hydrology

Task definition

• The main objective of this case study is to formulate

concrete practical agricultural drought monitoring method

and intervention levels with calibrating for the important

crops and fruits (wheat, corn and apple)

2. RS tools for

vegetation indices

3. Agricultural

drought decision

support parameters

Finalize OUTPUT 1:

An analysis report on

the role of soil and

crop water content

status in

waterbalance within

different agricultural,

landuse and water

management

practices at rain fed

and irrigated systems

for the most important

crops and fruit (wheat,

corn and apple)

Finalize OUTPUT 2:

Toolbox with the concrete

identification of remote

sensing and GIS data

tools for agricultural

drought monitoring and

forecast

Finalize OUTPUT 3:

Report on integration of

RS and GIS tools and

intervention levels into

drought monitoring

system

June 2013-Dec 2013

Sept 2013 – Jun 2014

May 2014 – Jan 2015

2. RS tools for

vegetation

indices

1. Analysis of

green and

brown water

status

3. Agricultural

drought decision

support

parameters

No changes in sceduling of the case study

Process flow of RS agricultural drought monitoring

methods

NDVI

Time

Series

Land

use

mask

Calibration

with Yield

statistical

data

Meteorological

Data

Calibration

with Drought

Index

Soil Physical

Data

Calibration

with available

water content

SDSS

Classification

Watch Varning Alert

Plant Specific

Drought Risk

Evaluation

What has been done from the 1st IDMP CEE workshop till now (October 2013 –

April 2014)?

Progress Report

Analysis of brown water status

Analysis of green water content

Spectral time series data sources

Data integration and processing

Yield data assessment

What has been done from the 1st IDMP CEE workshop till now (October 2013 – April 2014)? - Brown water status

Progress Report

Problems with characterization of brown water:

1. National soil mapping methods are partly different from World

Reference Base for Soil Resources (WRB).

2. To calculate brown water capacity of watersheds need to select critical

parameter list: physical characteristics of soils, TWC, FC, TAW, WP,

k.

3. A horizon is under continuous periodic cultivation, therefore the actual

porosity is changing continuously in soil. Compaction and sealing are

also problem.

MODIS NDVI dataset

Progress Report

What has been done from the 1st IDMP CEE workshop till now (October 2013 – April 2014)? - Spectral time series

Model for creating mask and extraction of arable land of a ROI out of a MODIS image

What has been done from the 1st IDMP CEE workshop till now (October 2013 – April 2014)? - Data integration and processing

Progress Report

Regions of Interest

(ROI)

Shape of a certain

ROI

Final mask:

Arable lands of a

certain ROI

NDVI of a certain

ROI on arable

lands

Model for extraction process of a final ROI mask from MODIS NDVI images

What has been done from the 1st IDMP CEE workshop till now (October 2013 – April 2014)? - Data integration and processing

Progress Report

Reference years for drought

affected and average years

based on yields

• Green: optimal (wet) years

• Red: drought affected years

• Blue: extreme precipitation

What has been done from the 1st IDMP CEE workshop till now (October 2013 – April 2014)? - Yield data assessment

Progress Report

At what stage of the final output(s) are you now? Progress Report

05 05 05 05 05

Wet

year

Dry

year

At what stage of the final output(s) are you now?

Progress Report At what stage of the final output(s) are you now?

Concerning Activity list:

1. What does it mean: “to predict area-specific yield forecasts?”

Means forecast of yields in the case of extreme drought situation at a

certain place

2. The name and type of output 3 are inconsistent. We also suggest to use in

the report the same titles which are used in the Activity list.

Type of output three is a guideline for national governments and local

stakeholders to integrate RS and GIS tools and intervention levels into

drought monitoring system.

3. How 5.5 case study could lead to short-term policy design?

Policy makers can prepare for the effects of a severe drought on the food

supply of the society in the impacted regions. It also help proactive

redesigning of regional water governance.

Milestone 1 was an internal report, which focused on technical problems. Policy

orientation will be strongly considered in the final report.

Reflection for PRG report:

Capacity building “Training for trainers” meeting in Szarvas,

Hungary

- Consultancy

with Ministry,

Academic

sector,

- Engineers Ass.

- Farmers Ass.

Problem is the

permanent

reorganization

of the water

management

sectors in

Hungary

Reflection for PRG report:

Concerning the report (milestone 1)

1. Hydrological drought is as complex as agricultural drought

We absolutely agree with that statement.

2. It would be interesting to know how this output will be linked with Act. 5.4 and

Act. 1.3.

The possible contributions of the 5.5. case study to other Acts. Will be

considered in the 2nd phase of the project.

3. Descriptions of brown and green water are also provided without any

reference

Green and brown water were defined in 11th Alps-Adria Scientific

Workshop, which was a joint conference of the Slovak Academy of

Sciences, Institute of Hydrology and the Hungarian Academy of Sciences,

Committees of Crop Production, Plant Protection, Soil Science and

Agricultural Chemistry. 26-31 March, 2012 Smolenice, Slovakia

Reflection for PRG report:

Concerning the 6 specific comments

1. The average annual daily temperature is 100 C; Clear mistyping.

Cleared and corrected

2. The minimum and maximum annual precipitations between years 1900 and 1950 were 342

mm and 874 mm, respectively.’

Mistyping corrected , it supposed to be 1950-2000.

3. The yield gains produced by irrigation were statistically significant every year.’ Too strong

statement.

After consultation with the Romanian partner we cleared this statement.

4. Information have to be mentioned with references only (for example figures 4 and 5).

These figures were self edited based on yield data.

5. NDVI has Agricultural drought means critical decrease in water content of plants, therefore

the identification of this critical water loss is essential.’ It is for the soil water content.

Corrected: „plants which strongly correlates the available water content of soil,”

6. In Hungary information is given with reference to biomass and not to the water content. How

was it calculated? (for example fig 4 of the report)

It was calculated based on international patents and references. We calculated by 15 %

watercontent in yield which is the harvest ripe status of the grain (Farrer et al. 2006,

USDA-ARS 2004)

Reflection for PRG report:

Thank you for your attention