ii. current trends and projections of the future a. …

The Metropolitan Transportation Plan for 2040: Completing our Streets

7

II. CURRENT TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS OF THE FUTURE

A. Trends

We must have a good understanding of our community before we can determine what needs to be improved in the future. It’s essential that we know where homes and businesses are currently located and trips people make between where they live, work and play determine where we need to maintain and improve our transportation system.

Next we need to develop a picture of how our community will grow. We need to know how much we will grow and where that growth will occur. The Comprehensive Land Use Plan continues to guide where utilities are located and where future residential, commercial and industrial growth will occur, as it has since 1978.

Table 2 provides a historical perspective of our community. Over the last forty years Tippecanoe County has experienced growth in both population and housing. While the overall trend in employment has been upward, there was a slight decline due to the recession that began in 2008.

Table 2, Historical Socioeconomic Data

Component 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Total Population 109,378

121,702 130,598 148,955 172,780

Household Population 96,901 105,271 114,138 133,829 158,317

Group Quarter Population 12,477 16,031 16,460 15,126 14,463

Total Housing Units 34,197 43,130 48,134 58,343 71,096

Occupied Housing Units 32,320 40,681 45,618 55,226 65,532

Person per Household 3.00 2.59 2.50 2.42 2.42

Vacant Housing Units 1,877 2,449 2,516 3,117 5,564

Percent of Housing Units Vacant 5.5% 5.7% 5.2% 5.3% 7.8%

Total Employment 52,016 64,824 79,949 98,426 94,911 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of the Census, Census of Population and Housing, and Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information Systems.

1. Population

The 2010 Census counted 172,780 persons in Tippecanoe County. This is a significant increase when compared to previous census data. Our County grew by 23,825 persons over the last ten years (16%). The general location, density and change in our population are shown in Figure 1, 2 and 3.

158,317 persons lived in households which are single-family homes, apartments, duplexes, and condominiums. They accounts for 92% of our county’s population. The other 8% (14,463) resided in group quarters. The majority of those (12,162) were students in dormitories, with 1,065 persons living in nursing homes and the remaining population primarily in jails.

The Area Plan Commission of Tippecanoe County

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0 1.5 3 4.5

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Population Distribution 0 to 50 Persons

51 to 170 Persons

171 to 439 Persons

440 to 1299 Persons

1,300 or more Persons

Prepared by the Area Plan Commissionof Tippecanoe County, May 25, 2012

DistributionPopulation

Figure 1

2010 Census

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Haggerty

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Disclaimer and copyright restriction sapply to this mapand data. Complete disclaimer can be viewed at:http://www.tippecanoe.in.gov/gis/disclaimer.htm

Source: US Bureau of the Census

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0 .5 1 1.5

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1,001 to 3,000 Persons

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Figure 2

Population Density2010

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Salem

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CR 100

CR

Disclaimer and copyright restrictions apply to this mapand data. Complete disclaimer can be viewed at:http://www.tippecanoe.in.gov/gis/disclaimer.htm


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0 1.5 3 4.5

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Population Change

Decrease in Population

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1,000 to 1,499 Persons Increase




2000 to 2010Population Change

Figure 3

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2. Housing

A key variable used in developing the 2040MTP is the location and number of housing units. The Census 2010 counted 71,096 housing units in Tippecanoe County. This was an 18% increase from the 2000 Census and a gain of over 10,000 new units. The Census provides this data at the block level so we have a very good idea where all of the housing units are located.

Not all of the housing units were occupied. There are always vacancies due to new units not yet occupied, sold or abandoned. Vacancy rates have risen from previous censuses that showed relatively stable vacancy rates of 5.2% to 5.7% to the current 7.8%. Projections in the 2040MTP account for the need to absorb the current extra vacant housing units.

The housing growth experienced over the previous ten years is primarily concentrated to the north and west of West Lafayette and to the east and south of Lafayette. This distribution confirms that our county Land Use Plan is still guiding development. Figure 4 shows the distribution of residential building permits over the last ten years.

Another important component affecting the number of trips is the average number of persons living in households. The 2010 Census reported approximately 2.42 persons per household. While the average has steadily decreased from 3.00 in 1970, it has remained the same for the last ten years.


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Figure 4

Residential BuildingPermits 2000-2010

0 2 4 6Miles

The Area Plan Commissionof Tippecanoe CountyDate: June 2012

Disclaimers and copyright restrictions apply to this map and data. Complete disclaimer can be viewedat: http://www.tippecanoe.in.gov/gis/Disclaimer.htm

!Issued Permit2000-2010

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3. Employment

Employment data utilized in the 2040MTP came from a new source. The Indiana University School of Business purchased employment data from InfoGroup (a private data vendor) for urban areas in Indiana. The information included not only the number of non-farm jobs for each business but also location, allowing us to map the location of jobs in Tippecanoe County. The data as of November of 2010 indicated there were 94,111 non-farm jobs in the county.

To estimate farm employment, we evaluated historical employment data from the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis. Over the past seven years, farm employment has been stable, averaging 800 farm employees. That figure was added to the employment estimate and distributed throughout the County with the assistance of the County Commissioners and their knowledge of the farming community.

We estimate there were a total of 94,911 jobs in Tippecanoe County in 2010.

B. Distributing Forecasts to Traffic Zones

Area wide socioeconomic forecasts for the year 2040 were developed. They were based on historical data, existing development plans and current trends (Table 3). The main guide used to distribute the forecasted data throughout County was the Comprehensive Land Use Plan.

1. Population Forecast

Population forecasts are comprised of two components: household population and group quarters. The household population forecasts are fairly straight forward and based on dwelling units and the average number of persons per household. We expect the number of persons living in households to grow from 158,317 persons in 2010 to 234,658 persons in 2040 (33% increase).

For the 2040MTP, we looked very closely at trends in group quarter population. Factors that will affect the number of people in group quarters in the future are students in dormitories at Purdue, retirees, and disabled veterans.

Two issues pertaining to veterans were discussed with local social service agencies as well as the County’s Veterans Service Office. The number of veterans currently living from previous wars is decreasing while the number of veterans from the most recent wars is increasing. The net effect is that the number of veterans living in group quarters (nursing homes and rehabilitation centers) will remain the same in the future.

Dormitory projections obtained from Purdue University anticipate new dorm rooms but only in the near future. After that the number of dorm rooms will remain constant through 2040.

Table 3, Socioeconomic Forecasts

2010 2020 2030 2040

Total Population 172,780 203,928 227,268 250,851

Household Population 158,317 188,630 211,744 234,658

Group Quarter Population 14,463 15,298 15,524 16,193

Total Housing Units 71,096 78,596 88,596 98,596

Occupied Housing Units 65,532 74,273 83,723 93,173

Person per Household 2.42 2.40 2.39 2.38

Vacant Housing Units 5,564 4,323 4,873 5,423

Percent of Housing Units Vacant 7.8% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%

Total Employment 94,911 107,697 125,585 144,418

The National Nursing Home Survey from the Centers for Disease Control shows that the majority of residents in nursing homes are 85 and older. Relevant Census data show that the nursing home population


20

in Tippecanoe County for 2010 was 1,056 persons, and that the population of those 85 and older in 2010 was 2,506 persons.

The future nursing home population is calculated by the ratio of persons living in nursing homes to the number of persons who are 85 and older (42.5%) applied to the population projections from the Indiana Business Research Center for persons who are 85 and older.

Combining these three groups provides a group quarter population estimate, one that will increase from 14,463 persons in 2010 to 16,193 persons by 2040.

The population in Tippecanoe County surpassed 100,000 just before the 1970 Census. Over next thirty years, the county grew by another 50,000 (about 1% per year). The 2040MTP forecasts a similar trend; in the next 30 years (by 2040) our population will grow by 78,000 (1% per year) and will surpass a quarter million people (250,851).

2. Housing Forecast

Housing forecasts are based on new building starts, vacancies and persons per household estimates. Construction of new dwelling units in the last several years is down due to the 2008 recession. In contrast, recent building permit data show that the number of new dwelling units is slowly returning to a more typical rate. We determined based on this observation that approximately 500 new units will be constructed annually through 2015. We felt after that date we would fully recover from the recession and our annual growth rate would increase to 1,000 new dwellings per year. This rate would then remain constant to 2040.

The vacancy rates used in these forecasts were based on historical data, which have averaged 5.5% over the last forty years. Due to the recession, our current rate is higher. We estimate that with economic recovery the vacancy rate will decrease by ½ % per year until it reaches 5.5% in 2015. After that it will remaining constant to 2040.

Analysis by Arthur C. Nelson, Director of Metropolitan Research Center at the University of Utah, indicates national level trends are now reversing and our average household size is increasing. Locally, over the last several decades there has been a strong local trend to fewer persons per household. We forecast that the local trends will continue, albeit at a slower pace. For 2020, the average household size will decrease to 2.40 and by 2040 household size will decrease to 2.38.

When forecasting the location of future housing the adopted Land Use Plan was used as a guide. The Land Use Plan has long showed the major growth areas to the north and west of West Lafayette and to the east and south of Lafayette. These growth areas are on the edge of both cities and contiguous to existing development (Figure 5).

0 1.5 3 4.5

Miles

Number of New Dwelling Untis

No new Dwelling Units

1 to 79 Dwelling Units




1,000 to 1,599 Dwelling Units

1,600 to 10,000 Dwelling Units

Figure 5

2040


Disclaimer and copyright restrictions apply to this mapand data. Complete disclaimer can ve viewed at:http://tippecanoe.in.gov/gis/disclaimer.htm

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Housing Growth

Distribution

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3. Employment Forecast

Historically the number of jobs per housing unit has increased over time. In the Seventies and Eighties, the ratio was around 1.50 jobs per housing unit. In the 1990s and 2000s the ratio increased to 1.66 and 1.69. Unfortunately, the effects of the 2008 recession significantly reduced the number of jobs and the ratio for 2010 dropped to 1.33 jobs per housing unit.

Like many other forecasters we see the economy recovering at a slower steady pace with new jobs being added each year. We forecast that the ratio of jobs per housing unit will return to its 1980 level by 2030. The ratio will then continue to increase slowly to 1.55 by 2040. By 2040, our total employment for the county will be 144,418 jobs.

Job distribution throughout the county was again guided by the Land Use Plan. We expect significant growth in the area west of I-65 along the McCarty/Haggerty Road corridors. We also anticipate employment growth in the downtowns and in West Lafayette adjacent to and in the Purdue Research Park (Figure 6). These growth areas correspond to those identified in the Comprehensive Land Use Plan.


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2040

Figure 6


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Employment GrowthDistribution

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4. Comparison to Previous Plans

The socioeconomic projections in the 2040MTP are similar to those of the 2030 Plan. There is only a slight change in the location of people, housing and employment. In the 2040MTP we have forecasted there will be 227,268 persons living in Tippecanoe County by 2030. The 2030 Plan forecasted 216,832 persons; the difference is only a slight increase (<5%). Because of anticipated changes in the average persons per household, the number of housing units forecasted in the 2040MTPfor 2030 are less than the 2030 Plan (83,723 and 89,647 respectively), but exceed the 2030 Plan level by the year2040. Finally, the forecasted number of jobs is nearly identical. There were no new traffic forecasts developed for the 2040MTP because the highway needs are well documented, have not changed and progress is being made to address the needs. The adopted Comprehensive Land Use Plan has guided growth patterns over the last 30 years and road needs to service that growth are well documented in the past five transportation plans. Each transportation plan has consistently identified a very similar set of needs and the community has been very successful in implementing the projects identified in the plan.

As was shown in the Transportation Plan for 2030, the Comprehensive Land Use Plan can accommodate all growth forecasted by the 2040MTP.


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ii. current trends and projections of the future a. …

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