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Impact of Census on Registration Kgosietsile Tshoke

June 2013

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• Access to registration venues increased by 40%;

• Registration technology now used for other purposes as well in the electoral cycle!!!!!

Year Elections Reg. Voters Incr. (%)

1999 Nat. & Prov 18 172 751 -

2000 Municipal 18 476 516 1.7

2004 Nat. & Prov. 20 674 926 11.9

2006 Municipal 21 054 957 1.8

2009 Nat. & Prov. 23 181 997 10.1

2011 Municipal 23 655 046 2.12013 (22/03/2013) 23 168 540 -2.1

Registration changes vs Elections

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What’s in the Numbers?

Year ElectionVoters Increase

Female Male Female Male

1999 Nat & Prov 9 895 369 8 277 382 First Roll

2000 Municipal 10 081 984 8 394 532 1,9% 1,4%

2004 Nat & Prov 11 334 028 9 340 898 12,4% 11,3%

2006 Municipal 11 574 118 9 480 839 2,1% 1,5%

2009 Nat & Prov 12,722,622 10,459,375 9,9% 10,3%

2011 Municipal 12,997,854 10,657,192 2,1% 1,8%

2013 (22/03/2013) 12,766,227 10,402,313 -1.8 -2.5

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Gender Breakdown

Year Females Males

1999 54,45% 45,55%

2000 54,56% 45,44%

2004 54,82% 45,18%

2006 54,97% 45,03%

2009 54.88% 45.12%

2011 54.95% 45.05%

Current (22/03/2013)

55.10 44.90

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Breakdown by Age Groups

  18-35 (Youth) 36-69 (Adult) 70+ (Aged)Total Voter Count

Event Voter Count % Voter Count % Voter Count %  

1999 8,685,258 47.79% 8,468,893 46.60% 1,018,600 5.61% 18,172,7512000 8,327,816 45.07% 8,982,337 48.61% 1,166,363 6.31% 18,476,5162004 9,193,845 44.47% 10,199,794 49.33% 1,281,287 6.20% 20,674,9262006 8,899,915 42.27% 10,787,393 51.23% 1,367,649 6.50% 21,054,9572009 9,820,251 42.36% 11,859,897 51.16% 1,501,849 6.48% 23,181,9972011 9,611,258 40.63% 12,420,291 52.51% 1,623,497 6.86% 23,655,046Current (22/03/2013)

8,659,145 37.37% 12,834,421 55.40% 2,228,593 9.62% 23,168,540

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This is what the data tells us!

• There is an increased number of registered voters with every election for almost every age except for youth;

• Growth in the number of registrations has not been uniform over the spectrum of age bands and has, in fact dropped significantly in the 20-24 year age band leading to a 6% decline in youth registration (18-29 years);

• There is a relative decline in the number of young voters (below ±25 years) with every ensuing election;

• There is also a gender base to the non-participation of youth to register as voters – there generally being a larger decline in the participation of males; and

• There is an evident ‘aging’ of the voters roll.

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Gender Analysis: New Registrations

Year Male Female Grand Total2000 291,464 345,026 636,490 2004 1,705,723 1,989,715 3,695,438 2006 395,012 517,276 912,288 2009 1,670,439 1,867,642 3,538,081 2011 577,398 653,578 1,230,976 Grand Total 4,640,036 5,373,237 10,013,273

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VR: Analysis by Year of Registration

Note: 1.1999, 2000, 2004,2006, 2009, 2011 indicate the year of first registration for verified voters,2.Other included categories such as Deleted from Population Register, Non South African Citizen, Not on Population Register, Received after registration cut-off date, Still Under Age

Category Total %1999 14,323,906 50.39%2000 521,984 1.84%2004 3,360,226 11.82%2006 854,035 3.00%2009 3,469,917 12.21%2011 1,124,978 3.96%Deceased (LGE 2011) 4,418,443 15.54%Other (LGE 2011) 351,552 1.24%Total 28,425,041 100.00%

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Stability of Voters on the VR

Registration Year Registered %1998 - 1999 6,843,445 28.93%2000 742,825 3.14%2001 - 2004 4,756,433 20.11%2005 - 2006 1,609,032 6.80%2007 - 2009 6,720,671 28.41%2010 - 2011 2,982,640 12.61%

Grand Total 23,655,046 100.00%

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Year of Registration vs. Stability: Analysis

• 15.5 million of the 18.1 million voters registered in 1999 are still on the voters roll;

• 9.9 million of them still live in the same voting district; • Continuous registration campaigns, including

campaigns for by-elections, do not result in a sufficient number of new registrations;

• Outside of general registration periods, it is possible to have a negative net growth on the VR; and

• We get value for money opening registration stations for VR inspections, new registrations and re-registrations when there is an election in sight!

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NEW/ADDITIONAL VDs

Year Elections VD Count New/Additional VDs

Incr. (%)

1999 Nat. & Prov 14 650 - -2000 Municipal 14 988 338 2.31%2004 Nat. & Prov. 16 966 1 978 13.20%2006 Municipal 18 873 1 907 11.24%2009 Nat. & Prov. 19 726 853 4.52%2011 Municipal 20 859 1 133 5.74%2013 (22/03/2013) 22 236 1 377 6.60%

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Voter participation by Gender

Province Female Male TotalEastern Cape 1 019 082 674 347 1 693 429Free State 477 776 331 414 809 190Gauteng 1 441 324 1 213 548 2 654 872KwaZulu-Natal 1 828 347 1 217 016 3 045 363Limpopo 931 023 480 294 1 411 317Mpumalanga 646 076 434 856 1 080 932North West 527 190 392 823 920 012Northern Cape 232 228 172 657 404 885

Western Cape 928 931 715 983 1 644 914

Total 8 031 977 5 632 937 13 664 914

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Voter participation by Age

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Province RegPop 26 Feb 2013 Census 2011 VAP % Voter registration

Eastern Cape 3 040 135 3 794 352 80.1%Free State 1 349 775 1 685 198 80.1%Gauteng 5 464 237 7 860 280 69.5%KwaZulu-Natal 4 573 233 6 096 509 75.0%Limpopo 2 315 325 3 004 795 77.1%Mpumalanga 1 678 712 2 389 406 70.3%North West 1 550 359 2 120 381 73.1%Northern Cape 556 186 711 843 78.1%Western Cape 2 655 171 3 771 271 70.4%

TOTAL 23 183 133 31 434 035 73.8%

Registration Gap Analysis: South Africa

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Registration Gap Analysis: Limpopo

Municipality RegPop 26 Feb 2013 Census 2011 VAP % Voter registrationLIM331 - Greater Giyani [Giyani] 113 946 128 758 88.5%LIM332 - Greater Letaba [Duiwelskloof] 100 660 116 235 86.6%LIM333 - Greater Tzaneen [Tzaneen] 171 500 230 922 74.3%LIM334 - Ba-Phalaborwa [Phalaborwa] 61 283 85 612 71.6%LIM335 - Maruleng [Hoedspruit] 47 542 52 883 89.9%LIM341 - Musina [Messina] 20 356 29 707 68.5%LIM342 - Mutale [Mutale-Masisi] 45 417 47 634 95.3%LIM343 - Thulamela [Thohoyandou] 277 333 333 557 83.1%LIM344 - Makhado [Louis Trichardt] 228 628 281 886 81.1%LIM351 - Blouberg [Bochum/My Darling] 71 191 82 763 86.0%LIM352 - Aganang [Moletji/Matlala] 63 074 70 051 90.0%LIM353 - Molemole [Dendron/Dikgale] 45 075 57 097 78.9%LIM354 - Polokwane [Pietersburg] 235 694 375 021 62.8%LIM355 - Lepele-Nkumpi [Lebowakgomo] 96 748 125 882 76.9%LIM361 - Thabazimbi [Thabazimbi] 38 278 52 618 72.7%LIM362 - Lephalale [Ellisras] 42 587 66 410 64.1%LIM364 - Mookgopong [Naboomspruit] 15 669 21 424 73.1%LIM365 - Modimolle [Nylstroom] 28 475 40 145 70.9%LIM366 - Bela-Bela [Warmbad] 27 836 40 980 67.9%LIM367 - Mogalakwena [Potgietersrus] 134 268 173 821 77.2%LIM471 - Ephraim Mogale [Marble Hall] 53 503 65 315 81.9%LIM472 - Elias Motsoaledi [Groblersdal] 108 311 135 417 80.0%LIM473 - Makhuduthamaga [Ngwaritsi] 116 639 147 065 79.3%LIM474 - Fetakgomo [Fetakgomo ] 41 906 52 759 79.4%LIM475 - Greater Tubatse [Burgersfort/Ohrigstad/Eastern Tubatse] 129 406 190 833 67.8%TOTAL 2 315 325 3 004 795 77.1%

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• Thank You

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