impact of large-scale climatic changes on pelagic ecosystems in the north atlantic
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Impact of large-scale climatic changes on pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic. Grégory Beaugrand. CNRS, UMR 8013 ELICO Station Marine Wimereux Université des sciences et technologies de Lille 1 BP 80, 62930 Wimereux France Email: [email protected]. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Impact of large-scale climatic changes on pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic
Grégory Beaugrand
CNRS, UMR 8013 ELICOStation Marine Wimereux
Université des sciences et technologies de Lille 1BP 80, 62930 Wimereux
France
Email: [email protected]
Reykjavik, 12-14th March 2005
-0.400.40.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Second principal
component (31.36%)
SST (central North Sea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse
mblage
Objectives of this talk
• To document responses of plankton to hydro-climatic forcing
• To show the potential consequences of climate-induced plankton changes for the structure and the functioning of the pelagic ecosystems, for higher trophic levels (Fish) and biogeochemical cycles
Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR)Survey
Sir Alister Hardy
Herring Packers& Drifters
First tow September
1931
4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W
4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W
4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W
4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W
M e t r i d i a l u c e n sC e n t r o p a g e s t y p i c u s
C a l a n u s f i n m a r c h i c u s P a r a - P s e u d o c a l a n u s s p p .
4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W
4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W
4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W
4 0 ° N5 0 ° N 0 ° E6 0 ° W 2 0 ° W6 0 ° N 2 0 ° E4 0 ° W8 0 ° W
M e t r i d i a l u c e n sC e n t r o p a g e s t y p i c u s
C a l a n u s f i n m a r c h i c u s P a r a - P s e u d o c a l a n u s s p p .
The CPR sampler
CPR sampling: 1946-2002
Information in the CPR database>400 species or taxa
Dinoflagellates Diatoms Copepods
108 taxa
Other zooplanktonMeroplankton
Euphausiids
-0.400.40.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Second principal
component (31.36%)
SST (central North Sea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse
mblage
Large-scale climatic forcing
Climatic variability in the North Atlantic Ocean
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
NAO (January to March)
1988
NAO
-0 .6
-0 .4
-0 .2
0
0 .2
0 .4
0 .6
EA (September to April)
1982
EA
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1950
2002
1962
1958
1954
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
EA - Jet (April to August)
1987
EA-jet
Northern Hemisphere Temperature anomalies (moving average)
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.619
50
2002
1962
1958
1954
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
Long-term changes in sea surface temperature
(1960-1997)
-50-40-30-20-100102030405060
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996 -0.4
-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.6 Northern Hemisphere
Temperature (in red)r=0.67, p<0.001p
First p
rincip
al com
ponen
t SST (
in blac
k)First eigenvector
-0.02 0.040 0.02
Increase in sea surface temperature related positively to NHT anomalies
From Beaugrand et al. (2002). Science. 296: 1692-1694.
What kind of biological consequences are expected under climatic warming?
• Changes in the range and spatial distribution of species • Shifts in the location of biogeographical boundaries, provinces and biomes • Change in the phenology of species (e.g. earlier reproductive season)• Modification in dominance (e.g. a key species can be replaced by another one) • Change in diversity• Change in other key functional attributes for marine ecosystems• Change in structure and dynamics of ecosystem with possible regime shifts
Major impact for marine exploited resources and biogeo-chemical processes (e.g. sequestration of CO2 by the ocean)
-0.400.40.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Second principal
component (31.36%)
SST (central North Sea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse
mblage
Plankton response to hydro-climatic forcing
1. Biogeographical shifts
Warm-temperate shelf- edge species
Mean number of species per association
Temperate shelf- edge species
Beaugrand et al. (2002) Science. Vol. 296. 1692-1694.
Cold-temperate (mixed water) species
Subarctic species
Mean number of species per associationBeaugrand et al. (2002) Science. Vol. 296. 1692-1694.
-0.400.40.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Second principal
component (31.36%)
SST (central North Sea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse
mblage
Plankton response to hydro-climatic forcing
2. Changes in biodiversity
Long-term monthly changes in calanoid copepod diversityThe North Sea (north and central part)
Mean number of calanoid species per CPR sample
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98123456789
101112
11.522.533.544.55
Years
MONTHS
Line in black: warm-temperate speciesLine in red: temperate species
-10 -5 0 5 10
50
55
60
North Sea
France
Mean
num
ber of sp
ecies p
er CP
R sam
ple
Before 1980 After 1980
Statistical modelling the seasonal changes in diversity
-0.400.40.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Second principal
component (31.36%)
SST (central North Sea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse
mblage
r² = 0.93n = 540pACF <0.01
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 1 2 3 4
Taxonomic diversity
Siz
e d
iver
sity
Relationships between taxonomic diversity and size diversity for calanoid copepods
Beaugrand et al. (in prep)
-0.400.40.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Second principal
component (31.36%)
SST (central North Sea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse
mblage
Plankton response to hydro-climatic forcing
3. Relationships between changes in plankton and fish
0,3
0,35
0,4
0,45
0,50,55
0,6
0,65
0,7
0,75
0,8
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
1 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,8
-0.400.40.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Second principal
component (31.36%)
SST (central North Sea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse
mblage
Beaugrand (2004) PROOCE
-0.4
0
0.4
0.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Sec
ond
pri
ncip
al
com
pone
nt (
31.3
6%)
SS
T
(cen
tral
Nor
th S
ea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)
NH
T a
nom
alie
sM
ean
umb
er o
f sp
ecie
s pe
r as
sem
blag
e
Gadoid species (cod)
SST
NHT anomalies
plankton change-4
-2
0
2
4
-2
-1
0
1
2
N o m a tc h fo r a n y o f th e c a la n o id c o p e p o d a s se m b la g e s
-2
-1
0
1
2
5 8 6 2 6 6 7 0 7 4 7 8 8 2 8 6 9 0 9 4 9 8Ye a r s (1 9 5 8 -1 9 9 9 )
Flatfish
salinity
Westerly wind
plankton change
Regime shifts in the North Sea and in the Pacific Ocean
-2.4-2
-1 .6-1.2-0.8-0.4
00 .40.81 .21.6
2
195
81
960
196
21
964
196
61
968
197
01
972
197
41
976
197
81
980
198
21
984
198
61
988
199
01
992
199
41
996
199
8
Sta
nd
ar
d d
evia
te
C alanoid copepods
-2-1.6-1.2-0.8-0.4
00.40.81.21.6
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
Sta
nd
ard
dev
iate
F i sh to ta l b iom a ss (5 spe cie s)
Beaugrand & Ibanez (in press, MEPS)
Beaugrand G (2004) Progress in Oceanography
Regime shifts in the North Sea and in the Pacific Ocean
Beaugrand & Ibanez (in press, MEPS)
-2.4-2
-1 .6-1.2-0.8-0.4
00 .40.81 .21.6
2
195
81
960
196
21
964
196
61
968
197
01
972
197
41
976
197
81
980
198
21
984
198
61
988
199
01
992
199
41
996
199
8
Sta
nd
ar
d d
evia
te
C alanoid copepods
-2-1.6-1.2-0.8-0.4
00.40.81.21.6
195
81
960
196
21
964
196
61
968
197
01
972
197
41
976
197
81
980
198
21
984
198
61
988
199
01
992
199
41
996
199
8
Sta
nd
ard
dev
iate Ca la no id co pep od s ( 17 i nd icato rs)
F ish tota l b io ma ss (5 spe c ie s)
Beaugrand G (2004) Progress in Oceanography
-0.400.40.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Second principal
component (31.36%)
SST (central North Sea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse
mblage
Plankton response to hydro-climatic forcing
4. Relationships between changes in plankton and the
Atlantic salmon
-0.400.40.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Second principal
component (31.36%)
SST (central North Sea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse
mblage
-0.2-0.10
0.10.20.30.40.5
-20-15-10-50510152025
-20-15-10-505101520
-4-3-2-1012345
1948
1958
1968
1978
1988
1998
NHT anomalies
Phytoplankton
C. finmarchicus
Salmo salar
1987
Beaugrand and Reid (2003) Global Change Biology
-0.400.40.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Second principal
component (31.36%)
SST (central North Sea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse
mblage
a. First principal component (52.34% of the total variability)
b. Discontinuity analysis
0.01
0.1
1
196
0
196
3
196
6
196
9
197
2
197
5
197
8
198
1
198
4
198
7
199
0
199
3
199
6
Pro
babi
lity
-3-2-101234
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
Firs
t pri
ncip
al c
ompo
nent
Local hydro-climatic changes in the north-east Atlantic and the North Sea: SMW / MRPP analyses
Beaugrand & Reid, 2003 Global Change Biology 9, 801-807
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
1979
1978
1980
1962
1975
1964
1976
1963
1977
1965
1966
1969
1970
1968
1985
1960
1986
1974
1972
1982
1971
1967
1981
1973
1961
1984
1983
1996
1992
1988
1994
1993
1991
1987
1990
1989
1997
1995
Ch
ord d
istance
1987-1997 1958-1986
Cluster Analysis: grouping years as a function of physical and biological characters
Variables :
Sea SurfaceTemperature NE Atlantic
Northern Hemisphere Temperature
North Atlantic Oscillation
Phytoplankton
Zooplankton (3 taxa)
Salmon catches
-0.400.40.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Second principal
component (31.36%)
SST (central North Sea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse
mblage
Plankton response to hydro-climatic forcing
5. Relationships between changes in plankton and cod
Plankton indicator of larval cod survival
March October
Calanus (from egg to adults)
July
Pseudocalanus
Euphausiids
fish larvae
• Total biomass of calanoid copepods• Mean size of calanoid copepod (ratio prey length/larval length=0.05)
Beaugrand et al. (2003) Nature. Vol. 426. 661-664.
Long-term change in the plankton index and cod recruitment (at age 1, one-year lag)
Plankton and cod recruitment
4.74.95.15.35.55.75.9
-8-6-4-202468
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997B
iolo
gica
l par
ame
ters
(P
C1,
in b
lack
) cod recruitm
ent (in red)
Beaugrand et al. (2003) Nature. Vol. 426. 661-664.
-6-4-20246
-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.30.5
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997Bi
olog
ical
par
amet
ers
(PC
1, in
bla
ck)
cod recruitment
(in red)
Beaugrand et al. (2003) Nature. Vol. 426. 661-664.
Plankton and cod recruitment
Consequences of plankton changes on higher trophic level (3)
0.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.4
6065707580859095123456789101112
size (in mm)
Gadoid Outburst
Mean size of calanoid copepod prey
606570758085909515202530354045
0.020.030.040.050.060.070.08
0.040.05
0.03
0.02
0.06
Mean le
ngth of
cod larv
ae (in m
m)
Ratio length copepod / length cod larvae
Ratio length of prey / length of larvae
1. Mismatch between size of prey and larval cod
Beaugrand, et al. (2003) Nature. Vol. 426. 661-664.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
C. finmarchicus
C. helgolandicus
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Long-term changes in the abundance of two key species in the North Sea
Per
cen
tage
of
C. h
elgo
lan
dicu
s
Reid et al. (2003)
Consequences of plankton changes on higher trophic level (3)
2. Mismatch between the timing of calanus prey and larval cod
Abundance of C. finmarchicus
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95123456789101112
0.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.6 Abundance (in log(x+1))
10
Gadoid Outburst
Abundance of C. helgolandicus
123456789101112
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0 Abundance (in log(x+1))
10
Gadoid Outburst
Beaugrand, et al. (2003) Nature. Vol. 426. 661-664.
Consequences of plankton changes on higher trophic level (3)
3. Quantitative changes unfavourable for larval/juvenile survival
Mean biomass of calanoid copepod preys
123456789101112
051015202530
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
biomass (in mg per sample)Gadoid Outburst
Abundance of euphausiids
0.1
0.20.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95123456789101112 Abundance (in log(x+1))
10
Years (1958-1999)
Month
s
Gadoid Outburst
Beaugrand, et al. (2003) Nature. Vol. 426. 661-664.
-0.400.40.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Second principal
component (31.36%)
SST (central North Sea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse
mblage
warming of temperature
Decrease in the number of prey (-)
Energetic gain
Growth and survival
Reduction in recruitment
Larval metabolism
Energetic demand
(+)
(+)
(-)
(-)(+)
Energetic imbalance
(-)
(-)
Overfishing
-0.400.40.8
-2-10123-3-2-10123
-2-1012
Second principal
component (31.36%)
SST (central North Sea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)NHT anomaliesMean umber of species per asse
mblage
Plankton response to hydro-climatic forcing
6. Changes in the functioning of pelagic ecosystems with possible consequences for
biogeochemical cycles
Exemple of the North Sea
Functional warming of North Sea marine ecosystems: decrease in the mean size of calanoid
copepods
Eigenvector 2 (17.52%)Principal component 2 (in black)
Beaugrand et al. (in prep)
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Long-term monthly changes in the minimum turnover of biogenic carbon
Years (1958-1999)
Mon
ths
Min
imu
m tu
rnover (in
day)
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95123456789101112
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
Increase in the ecosystem metabolism
Long-term monthly changes in the mean residence time of carbon above 50 m
Years (1958-1999)
Mon
ths
Resid
ence tim
e (in d
ay)
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95123456789101112
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
Potential decreasein carbon sink in the North Sea
Response of the pelagic ecosystem to climate change
Cold period: 1964-1981 Warm period: 1987-2002
• Increase in carbon recycling (ecosystem metabolism)• Decrease in exportation
Adaptation of North Sea ecosystems to a new regime
Minimum size(1958-2002)
Diversity(1958-2002)
Biomass(1958-2002)
Difference between the period 1964-1980 and 1987-2002
Shift in the location of the main biogeographical boundaries
1965-1981
Analysis with mean size, diversity, total biomass and temperature
First principal component First principal component
1987-2002
Response of the pelagic ecosystem to climate change
Diatom diversity Dinoflagellate diversity
Mean number of species per CPR sample
Conclusions
• Examination of data from the CPR survey have revealed major changes in the plankton ecosystems in European seas
• Plankton ecosystem changes are related to large-scale climatic variability (e.g. NAO and NHT)
• Strong potential consequences for exploited resources
Aknowledgments
• Philip C Reid (SAHFOS)
• Keith Brander (ICES, Copenhagen)
• Frederic Ibanez (LOV, Villefranche-sur-mer)
Mean size of calanoid copepods (minimum size of female)
Mean size of calanoid copepods (female)
1 1.5 2 2.5 3G. Beaugrand
Biotic anomalies around the United Kingdom
A n o m a lie s A n o m a lie s
A n o m a lie s A n o m a lie s
Biological materials:Euphausiids, Calanus, phytoplankton colourCalanoid copepod biomass, mean size of calanoid copepods
Statistical analysis:Three-mode PCA
Results:Major biotic anomalies in the North Sea during the 1990s(start of the change during the 1980s)
Beaugrand (in preparation)