Multi-year Expert Meeting on Transport, Trade Logistics and Trade

Facilitation

Third Session: Small Island Developing States: Transport and Trade Logistics

Challenges

24 – 26 November 2014

Impacts of Climate Change Factors on the Transport Sector

The Case of the Caribbean

Presentation by

Mr. Willard Phillips Economic Affairs Officer

Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean

This expert paper is reproduced by the UNCTAD secretariat in the form and language in which it has been received. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the

view of the United Nations.

11/26/2014

1

Impacts of Climate Change Factors on the Transport

Sector

The Case of the Caribbean

Presented by Willard Phillips

UNECLAC

Transportation Context in the Caribbean

• International, Intra-regional, Domestic

• Economies of Scale • Subject to Economic

and Natural Vulnerability

• Critical for Movement of People and Goods

• Technology and Human Resources

• Financing and Capitalization

• Climate Change an Additional Challenge

11/26/2014

2

Transportation and Trade • Transportation is critical

for Caribbean trade • High import demand

supported by maritime transport

• But region disadvantaged by low volume imports to multiple destinations – weak scale economy

• Relatively under developed intra-island shipping

• Low Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (UNCTAD)

Liner Shipping Connectivity Index Selected Countries

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Liner Shipping Connectivity Index - 2013 Selected Countries

11/26/2014

3

Transportation and Tourism • High trade in services

(tourism) supported by air transport.

• High share of global cruise passenger traffic

• International passenger transport critical to regional tourism sector

• High incentive cost to keep international airlines in the region

• High cost (in terms of money and time) for intra-regional passenger travel

Climate Change Impacts: Changes in Temperature and Precipitation

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

2020 2030 2040 2050

Impact of Temperature and Precipitation on Total International Transportation Expenditure - Barbados

(2008 $USD Millions)

BAU A2 B2

11/26/2014

4

Climate Change Impacts: Sea Level Rise

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Land Loss, Square Km 2050 Value of Land Loss 2050 Value ofInternational Transport

Loss

2050 Value of RebuildingCosts

Impact of Sea Level Rise on International Transportation Infrastructure - Montserrat

(A2 /B2 by 2050)

A2 B2

Climate Change Impacts: Transportation Infrastructure

• Most airports in Caribbean located on the coast

• Sea-level rise would require strengthening of port infrastructure – jetties breakwaters

• Increased risk of overtopping during storm surges

• Enhancements also required for marinas

• Extreme weather can cause flooding of airports and runways

11/26/2014

5

Climate Change Impacts: Extreme Events

Extreme weather can also cause flooding of airports and runways

Adaptation Efforts: Jamaica

11/26/2014

6

Adaptation Efforts: St. Kitts and Nevis

Adaptation Efforts: Dominica

11/26/2014

7

Future Challenges

• Energy security for transportation

• Building Public Private Partnerships

• Risk Reduction and Resilience

Thank You!