indian industry confederation of c on fed rati indian ... watch pre budget246.pdf · indian...

1policy watch

Focus Budget: Reforms-Oriented Budget Required to Revive Growth

February 2013, Volume 1, Issue 11

POLICY

Confederation ofIndian Industry





T he Union Budget 2013- 14 is round the corner and the hectic deliberations normally

associated with this kind of mammoth activity has also reached its peak. the Union Budget is more than just an annual fi nancial statement of the Government. it is keenly anticipated as it presents the central Government’s policy for meeting the aspirations of the common man as well as industry. this year, the Budget will be presented against the backdrop of an extremely testing macro-environment, fuelled by a global slowdown and domestic challenges.

the current domestic economic scenario is besieged by a multitude of problems. the biggest challenge today is negotiating a way out of the ‘stagfl ation’ like environment, which creates its own challenges when it comes to policy making. Economic growth, as measured by the growth in GDp, has slowed down considerably, while wpi infl ation continues to remain above the comfort level of Reserve Bank of india (RBi). Urgent steps need to be taken to stop further damage and bring

growth back to the normal trajectory. correction in Government fi nances is also necessary for RBi to shift its focus from infl ation to growth. RBi has clearly indicated that the leg-room for cutting interest rates is limited given the fi scal profl igacy on the part of the Government.

During the last few months, the Government has announced a slew of reform measures such as reduction in diesel subsidy, expanding the scope for participation by foreign investors in various critical sectors, and setting up a cabinet committee on investment (cci) for expediting the implementation of large projects. they say ‘good economics is often bad politics’; hence the successful implementation of these bold measures without buckling under political opposition will remain pivotal in reining in defi cit and reviving growth in the medium term.

in this issue of policy watch, we focus on cii’s recommendations for the Budget which can help in

reviving the growth momentum of the economy.

Mindful of the precarious condition of the fi scal health of the Government, cii has resisted from asking for any reduction in excise and service tax rates and instead suggested that the present rates be maintained. Further, it needs to be highlighted that an appropriate Goods and Service tax (GSt), which brings all goods and services under its ambit, is the best possible stimulus for industry; hence it is important for the Government to make the necessary announcements to that effect in the Budget.

apart from getting the fi scal house of the Government in order, the Budget should also aim to reignite the investment cycle, which in turn, will spur growth. to address this, cii recommends measures such as allowing accelerated depreciation for investments in plant and machinery, encouraging public sector companies to make new investments by utilizing their investible surplus and ensuring quick time-bound clearance of 50 large projects, amongst others.

the forthcoming Budget gives the Government an opportunity to invigorate the economy with a fresh dose of stimulus. the industry looks forward to a reforms-oriented Budget which will galvanize the economy and catapult it to a higher trajectory of growth. n

Chandrajit BanerjeeDirector Generalconfederation of indian industry

this IssueInsideMessage From the Director General .. 1chandrajit Banerjee, Director General, cii

cEo Speak ....................................... 2Sunil Kant Munjal, past president, cii ; chairman, cii National committee on Economic policy and Joint Managing Director, hero Motocorp limited & chairman, hero corporate Service limited

policy Barometer .............................. 4industry Voices ................................. 7Factfi le ............................................. 8

comes to policy making. Economic growth, as measured by the growth in GDp, has slowed down considerably, while wpi infl ation continues to remain above the comfort level of Reserve Bank of india (RBi). Urgent steps need to be taken to stop further damage and bring

growth in the medium term.

in this issue of policy watch, we focus on cii’s recommendations for the Budget which can help in

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CEOSpeak

Since the last Union Budget, the prospects of the domestic economy have deteriorated. Virtually all economic indicators have shown a deepening slowdown. On the positive side, the Government has taken note of the condition of the economy and announced a slew of reforms. Do you think that these initiatives will lead to a turnaround in the economy in the course of the next fiscal?

when the last Budget was presented, we thought it was just a matter of time before growth would return to its normal trajectory. however, as the year progressed, there were a string of unfortunate economic developments that put paid to any hopes of an early revival. Growth has slowed to its weakest pace in nearly a decade, dragged down by high inflation, a ballooning fiscal and current account deficit, slowing exports and sluggish domestic demand.

Even now, economic indicators continue to be worrisome, with the latest cSo forecast pegging GDp growth for the year at a nine-year low of 5 per cent.

But there is a silver lining. From September 2012, through a series of reform measures, the Government has rekindled hope of a

economic growth? Are you optimistic or cautious?

the Budget should look at initiating policy measures that have potential to revive growth and sustain it. Restarting the investment cycle should assume topmost priority, since today’s investment is nothing but tomorrow’s production. it is the surest buffer against supply-side inflation.

the Government, in recent months, has taken some measures in this direction. to boost the effectiveness of these measures, the Finance Minister could take a few specific steps. he could provide certain tax incentives like accelerated depreciation rate of 25 per cent on plant and machinery for a pre-defined period; he could exempt SEZs and infrastructure companies from Minimum alternate tax (Mat) and reduce the central Sales tax (cSt) rate.

the indian rupee has depreciated substantially, yet exporters have been unable to cash in because global demand is weak and uncertain. a revival in exports is crucial, since it will help pare down the worryingly high current account deficit. there is a case for providing 2 per cent interest subvention for all export categories, and not only in select segments, as is the current policy.

Timely Implementation of GST is the Best Possible Stimulus that the Industry Can Get

Sunil Kant Munjalpast president, cii;

chairman, cii National committee on Economic policy and Joint Managing Director,

hero Motocorp limited & chairman, hero corporate Service limited

recovery. Measures such as allowing reduction in diesel subsidy, delaying implementation of GaaR, constituting the cabinet committee on investments (cci) to fast-track implementation of large projects and enhancing the scope of foreign investment in a few critical sectors are important pluses.

if the reform process is sustained in the Union Budget and beyond, then the indian economy will revive sooner than most people expect.

What are the top three reform measures that the Government should introduce in the Budget to revive

Growth

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CEOSpeak

there should also be a clear roadmap and commitment to contain the fiscal deficit. the Finance Minister has already spoken to this effect, but in the Budget, he should walk the talk. high fiscal deficit is responsible for diversion of resources from productive purposes to consumption. it also contributes to inflation and limits the scope for flexible monetary policy. at the same time, the Finance Minister must be careful about which heads he targets for expenditure management; cutting capital expenditure is much easier to do than pruning subsidy expenditure - but it is also much more dangerous—since it has a negative impact on the investment climate.

Nevertheless, the resolve that the Government has shown in the last few months to push ahead with economic reforms makes me cautiously optimistic.

Given the current economic slowdown and rising fiscal deficit, what message would you like to convey to CII Membership as it prepares for the Union Budget and beyond?

the industry has been facing a multitude of challenges over the last few years mainly on account of high interest rates, low investor sentiment and an uncertain global economic environment.

the industry has been buoyed by the recent bold reforms initiated by the Government and we are hoping that this is just the beginning and more such steps are on the anvil. Reform measures being rolled out by the Government have set the stage for Reserve Bank of india (RBi) to gradually shift its focus from inflation to growth.

in short, i feel that the worst is behind us. having said that, it is important that we don’t leave the entire responsibility of managing the business environment to the Government and to RBi. on our part, we must relentlessly strive to win the war on cost and poor quality and continue benchmarking ourselves with the most productive firms in the world.

Which is that one key step that you think will greatly increase the confidence of industry?

i cannot overemphasize the importance of the implementation of the Goods and

Service tax (GSt) as early as possible. there would be no better stimulus than this. During this Budget, i am hoping that the Finance Minister will have a new, and hopefully final date for the implementation of GSt. at the same time, industry expects issues related to the constitutional amendment Bill, which was introduced in parliament in March 2011, to be resolved as quickly as possible.

In your view, how do you see the economic landscape changing in 2013-14?

i expect the economy to start recovering in the next fiscal as the benefits of continued reforms start yielding results. a serious effort to contain the fiscal deficit next year is pivotal. this will encourage the RBi to lower interest rates in order to cushion slowing growth. however, we must also realize that the recovery in 2013-14 will not be V-shaped as the one in 2010. it will be fragile and palliative actions and impacts would have to be monitored cautiously.

on the positive side, wpi-based inflation could moderate from current levels, provided crude prices don’t go out of control and we have a normal monsoon.

i expect some eventual upside to take place in the fiscal numbers, when prices of diesel, electricity and coal are rationalized, and inherent hidden subsides are pared down. however, we should be ready to tolerate some degree of inflation when energy prices

rise. however, increase in user charges will have a crucial impact on the financial viability of the infrastructure sector.

on its part, RBi should not be constrained in cutting interest rates despite the fear of an uptick in inflation. inflation, in my view, now needs to be primarily tackled by addressing supply bottlenecks that exist in various forms in the economy. and that is the job of the centre and the State Governments.

Are there any other issues that you would like to highlight?

there have been some reports doing the rounds regarding the likelihood of the imposition of new taxes such as ‘inheritance tax, ‘super rich tax’ etc, in the Budget.

the Government should resist the temptation of embarking on such politically-salacious adventures; they would certainly dampen sentiment, but will not contribute significantly to the exchequer. it is well known that the marginal propensity to save (MpS) is higher in the case of the rich than the poor. taxing the rich, therefore, amounts to reducing savings and investment in the economy and diverting the same for meeting consumption needs. we should not try to impose an additional tax on the rich at a time when business sentiments in the economy are already at rock bottom.

instead, the Government should try to widen the tax base by bringing tax evaders under the tax net. n

Expenditure

revenue

Fiscal Def cit

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Policy Barometer

Union Budget 2013–14 Should Aim to Revive Growth

A t a time when the indian economy is witnessing a sharp slowdown, the Union

Budget for 2013-14 should primarily focus on reviving the growth momentum of the economy. the Budget will be presented against the backdrop of persistently high inflation, escalating fiscal and current account deficits, falling investment levels, lacklustre export performance, and an uncertain global economic environment. cii, in its pre-Budget Memorandum 2013-14 submitted to the Ministry of Finance, has identified the critical roadblocks to growth and has presented its recommendations to address these issues. according to Mr Sunil Kant Munjal, past president, cii; chairman, cii National committee on Economic policy and Joint Managing Director, hero Motocorp limited & chairman, hero corporate Service limited, “Reviving growth remains the foremost concern in the economy. it is important that the Budget lays due emphasis on implementing far-reaching reforms.”

Fiscal Consolidation

the fiscal deficit target for 2012-13 is in danger of being breached. For the first nine months of the current financial year upto December 2012, the fiscal deficit of the Union Government has already touched close to 79 per cent of the budgeted amount. Escalating fiscal deficit is a burning issue which needs to addressed. while it has prevented RBi from following a more liberal monetary stance even in the face of a serious slowdown in growth, the risk of a downgrade in sovereign rating remains high. Further, high fiscal deficit has been crowding out private sector investment in the economy. it is, therefore, imperative for the Government to fix short and medium term targets for reducing fiscal deficit, and adhere to them strictly.

Recommendations

• Clear Funds Stuck in Disputes

approximately Rs 4 lakh crore is stuck

in taxation disputes and litigation. a portion of this could be targetted for out-of-court settlements. attempts can be made to clear atleast Rs 50,000 crore during the next fiscal. this will increase the revenues for the Government and have a positive impact on fiscal deficit, besides improving sentiments.

• Disinvestment

with collection of taxes becoming a challenge, proceeds from disinvestment will be critical in containing fiscal deficit. the Government should set a target of raising at least Rs 50,000 crore by way of disinvestment in the next fiscal year. although in the current fiscal, the Government raised more than Rs 10,000 crore through disinvestment out of the Rs 30,000 crore target set for the year, it is working hard to reach closer to the target.

• Rationalise Subsidies

the main risk to fiscal deficit comes from subsidies, owing mainly to the fact that the Budget for 2011-12 has made a smaller provision under subsidy in comparison to what is likely to be the case. hence achieving the targetted subsidy for the current year, budgeted to be reduced to 2 per cent of GDp, may prove to be a challenging task. oil subsidy would be a major factor

behind the target breach. in this regard, the Government’s recent decision to allow oil marketing companies to gradually increase the price of diesel is indeed a welcome step. there is now a need to rationalise fertilizer subsidy as well. among the various measures in this direction, the Government could put a quantitative restriction on the purchase of subsidized fertilizer by a farmer. this would result in savings of approximately Rs 10,000 crore to the exchequer. Further, cii is in favour of consolidation of overlapping sections of central schemes, which could yield upto Rs 10,000 crore for the Government.

• Monetize Surplus Land of PSUs the Government can look at monetizing

a portion of its surplus land which is not in use. this will not only yield revenue to the Government but also lead to better utilization of land assets. Similarly, the Government can also attempt unlocking value from the assets of many of the 66 sick pSUs that have bleak chances of revival and have been accumulating losses year after year.

• Set Up An Expenditure Reforms Commission

as pointed out by the Kelkar committee, there is scope to curtail the plan

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expenditure by reallocation of resources in such a manner that it does not hurt the vulnerable sections of society. an independent Expenditure Reforms commission can be set up to suggest measures leading to rationalization of expenditure in a time bound manner.

Re-Starting the Investment Cycle

investment demand has remained lacklustre so far, with an average growth of 2.3 per cent in the first-half of the current fiscal as compared to a robust 9.7 per cent growth in the corresponding period last fiscal. while recent reform measures announced by the Government have helped in mitigating the negative sentiment of investors, a lot more needs to be done. care must be taken that the Union Budget does not have any proposal that has a negative impact on business sentiment.

Recommendations:

• Fast-Track Implementation of 50Mega Projects

cii recommends quick time-bound clearance of 50 mega projects with the intervention of the recently instituted cabinet committee on investment (cci). as the State Governments are involved in business related approvals and clearances, they should be encouraged to set up investment boards, in line with the cci, possibly under the chairmanship of the chief Minister.

• AllowAcceleratedDepreciation

allow accelerated depreciation for investments in plant and machinery from the present level of 15 per cent to 25 per cent for a pre-defined period of 3–5 years. this move will help project developers obtain full tax advantage of depreciation in a shorter period of time, thus rendering an incentive for fresh investments without affecting the revenue collection of the Government.

• ExtendWeightedTaxDeductionforGreen Initiatives

a 250 per cent weighted tax deduction on expenditure incurred by companies on ‘going green’ could be considered as this would induce investments, which otherwise would not be in the plan.

• EncouragePublicSectorCompaniesto Make Larger Investments

in order to support the overall investment activity in the economy, it is important that public sector companies are encouraged to make new investments. central Government-run companies alone are holding an estimated investible surplus of about Rs 2.5 lakh crore, which may be used for building new capacity. this will stimulate overall investment in the economy by way of forward and backward linkages.

• Provide Boost to Low-CostHousing

Given the rapidly growing demand for housing from the low-to- middle income population, it is critical to promote low-cost housing. currently, the Government offers interest subvention of one per cent for low-cost housing loans up to Rs 15 lakh, provided the housing cost does not exceed Rs 25 lakh. it is suggested that the interest subvention scheme be extended to a total housing cost of up to Rs 35 lakh. this sector has one of the highest multiplier effects, and therefore, an incentive for investments in low-cost housing would, in turn, create demand in more than 200 subsectors of industry.

Policy Barometer

• Maintain Excise Duty, Service Taxand Customs Duty Rates at the Existing Level

industrial output has remained poor in the last several quarters, given the linkages between investment demand and industrial output. in order to reverse the fall in industrial output, a natural expectation would be that the Government will intervene with a stimulus package involving reduction in excise and service tax rates. however, in the wake of escalated fiscal deficit, this could be an unreasonable demand and therefore, the present rates of excise and service tax rates should be maintained. Reduction in customs duty should also be avoided as it could lead to an influx of cheap imports from countries facing excess capacity.

• Abolish Surcharge and Cess fromCorporate Tax

Surcharge and cess from corporate tax should be abolished in line with the proposal of the Direct tax code (Dtc). this, besides simplifying compliance, will help companies pass on the benefit to consumers and generate additional demand and investment opportunity.

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• Remove MAT from SEZ andInfrastructure Companies

Exempting infrastructure and SEZ companies from the levy of Minimum alternate tax (Mat) will go a long way in attracting new investment in the sector. currently, SEZ and infrastructure projects are entitled to a tax holiday under section 80ia for 10 consecutive years during the first 15/20 years of their operation. the levy of Mat during this period has greatly negated the tax benefit offered under 80ia.

• ImplementGST

a clear direction for introducing the Goods and Services tax (GSt) would kickstart new planning of new projects. GSt alone can add more than a percentage point to the GDp growth rate. industry wants the early implementation of GSt and expects early resolution of issues related to the amendment of the constitutional amendment Bill which was introduced in parliament on March 22, 2011. the announcement of a fresh roadmap and date of implementation of GSt would be positive steps.

Exports Revival

india’s current account deficit is way beyond the level of comfort. the current account deficit in the second-quarter 2012-13 stood at 5.4 per cent of GDp. this is partly on account of the dismal performance of the exports sector, which is natural given the poor condition of global demand. therefore, it would be very helpful if the interest rate

subvention of 2 percent is extended to all products and sectors to ensure that indian exports can tide over this exceptionally difficult phase.

Health and Education

healthcare and education sectors are undeniably the two pillars of social infrastructure, with far-reaching implications for the socio-economic structure of the country. yet, the state of these sectors in the country is far from satisfactory. one of the main reasons for this is the low public expenditure incurred on them.

in order to meet the challenges of these sectors and attract investment, the Government accorded infrastructure sub-sector status to healthcare and education a couple of years ago. however, the guidelines to this effect have not yet been announced. we hope that in the forthcoming Budget, this issue will be addressed.

Miscellaneous Recommendations

• FlagshipschemessuchasBharatNirmanand Jawaharlal Nehru Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM) should be given priority. the second phase of JNNURM could be initiated now to create the much needed demand for several sectors.

• The Companies Bill is introducingthe new provision that 2 per cent of profit after tax (pat) will have to be mandatorily spent on corporate Social Responsibility (cSR). Such a move is without precedent. provision should be made for a weighted deduction of 150

per cent of the expenses incurred by companies towards activities classified as cSR under the companies Bill. also, in case the expenses are incurred in backward, tribal or hilly areas, there should be a weighted deduction of 200 per cent, in view of the development of such areas.

• There are media reports that theGovernment is proposing to introduce inheritance tax. cii is not in favour of such a move. Firstly, the proceeds, at best, would be quite modest and the effort would be disproportionately high. Secondly, new taxes at this stage will hardly help sentiments in the economy.

• Thereisanothersuggestionthatthesocalled ‘super rich’ should be subject to a higher tax-bracket. we understand that this idea is emanating from the proposals that have gone through in the US as a step to avoid the ‘fiscal cliff’. a few points need to be noted in this context. one, in india, our experience has always been that lower and simpler taxes yield higher revenues, since the base and compliance go up. Second, the US and india are vastly different in their stages of development. third, except for pointing at a more socialistic tilt, it is not clear how this will help the cause of growth at the present juncture.

• Transaction based taxes tend to bringdistortions in the market. we have, therefore, proposed that commodities transaction tax (ctt) should not be reintroduced.

• Sentiments and mood in India aregreatly determined by movements in the stock market. the markets being shallow, inflow and outflow of Fii money makes a huge difference. the Government might like to consider creating a sovereign wealth fund, which could balance out the volatility in the markets in india. Since india is not a fiscal surplus country, such a fund could be created in a public private partnership (ppp) framework.

to conclude, while sustaining the current momentum of economic reforms, we hope that the forthcoming Budget will address the multiple challenges to growth. n

Policy Barometer

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Industry Voices

Faster development of capital markets is imperative for sustainable economic growth. with increasing requirements of infrastructure funding, there is an urgent need for the development of the bond market, while seeking more participation from both retail and institutional investors. Emphasis needs to be laid on product innovation, while allowing greater investment flexibility by indian institutions. alignment of current regulations with international best practices which are workable in the indian scenario will go a long way in creating a robust and facilitative governance framework.

Anil Sardanachairman, cii National committee on power and Managing Director, the tata power company limited

industry wants an early implementation of the Goods and services tax (GSt). pending the GSt implementation, there is a case for reduction in central Sales tax (cSt) levied on inter-state sale of goods, whether in the form of raw materials, intermediate, or finished goods. cSt leads to tax cascading as no credit is available for this tax, and thus adds to the cost of production. a reduction in the cSt rate from 2 per cent to 1 per cent would be a step towards reducing the current complexities in the supply chain and removing barriers to a common market in india.

Rajiv Memani chairman, cii National committee on indirect taxes / GSt and country Managing partner, Ernst & young private limited

achievement of ambitious goals stipulated for the infrastructure Sector in the 12th Five year plan requires massive impetus from the Government. in this regard, the constitution of a dedicated cabinet committee on infrastructure (cci) is a welcome step. we sincerely hope that it will be equipped with enough power to help the private players in obtaining necessary clearances before project execution and suggest necessary regulatory, financial and legislative changes to strengthen the existing public private partnership (ppp) framework, leading to growth in infrastructure development in the country.

Vinayak Chatterjeechairman, cii National task Force on infrastructure projects - Monitoring and advocacy and chairman, Feedback infrastructure Services private limited

the domestic macro-environment currently is plagued by challenges such as a sluggish growth momentum, persistently high inflation, high twin deficits (fiscal and current account) and an uncertain global economic environment. in this backdrop, we believe that the Union Budget 2013-14 should essentially focus on reviving the growth momentum of the economy. the Budget needs to stimulate investments, present a clear roadmap for reduction in fiscal deficit, revive export performance and promote inclusiveness.

Adi Godrejpresident, cii and chairman, Godrej Group

india’s current account deficit is way beyond the level of comfort. this is partly due to the lacklustre performance of the Exports sector, which is natural given the poor demand conditions globally. therefore, it will be very helpful if an interest rate subvention of 2 per cent is extended to all products and sectors to ensure that indian exports can tide over this exceptionally difficult phase. also SEZs, which have a huge potential, should be given chapter 3 benefits.

Sanjay Budhiachairman, cii National committee on Exports & imports and Managing Director, patton international limited

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Factfile

Economy Faces Numerous Macro-Economic Challenges

• GDPGrowthHasModeratedWhileInflationRemainsHigh

the Gross Domestic product (GDp) has witnessed a moderation in growth for the last several quarters. the growth rate touched 5.3 per cent in the second-quarter of the current

fiscal, the slowest in the last 9 quarters. Notwithstanding the recent moderation in wpi inflation, it still remains above the RBi’s comfort levels. RBi cut repo rate by 25 bps in its third quarter monetary policy review held in end-January 2013 in response to slowing growth and inflation.

• TwinDeficitsHaveFurtherCompoundedtheProblem

the widening of the current account deficit (caD) to historically high levels in the context of a large fiscal deficit and slowing growth exposes the economy to the risks from twin deficits. the caD for the second-quarter Fy13 rose to 5.4 per cent of

GDp as compared to 4.2 per cent in the same quarter a year ago; while the fiscal deficit target for the current fiscal too is in danger of being breached by a wide margin. large fiscal deficits will accentuate the caD risk, further crowd out private investment and stunt growth impulses.

y-o-y%

6.7

3.1 3.7

8.8

5.3

1.2

2.8

7.2

GDP at factorcost

Agriculture Industry Services

Q2FY12 Q2FY13

WPI Inflation (y-o-y%)

6.9

7.4

7.77.5 7.5 7.6 7.5

8.0 8.1

7.3 7.2 7.2

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr-

12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug-

12

Sep-

12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

3.8 4.2 4.4 4.53.9

5.4

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY130.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

CAD (US$ billion) CAD (as a % of GDP) RHS

6.06.5

4.85.8

5.3

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13(BE)(RE)

Fiscal Deficit as a % of GDP

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No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in, or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise), without the prior written permission of the copyright owner. cii has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of information presented in this document. however, neither cii nor any of its office bearers or analysts or employees can be held responsible for any financial consequences arising out of the use of information provided herein. however, in case of any discrepancy, error, etc., same may please be brought to the notice of cii for appropriate corrections.

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