INTERNATIONAL SPECIALITY CONFERENCE:

LEAPFROGGING OPPORTUNITIES FOR AIR

QUALITY IMPROVEMENTXi’an, Shaanxi Province, China

10-14 May 2010

Science-based, Multilateral Regional

Cooperation for the Control of Air

Pollution:

A Handbook for Policy-makers

Lars Nordberg, ScandEnvironment

la.nordberg@tele2.se

RATIONALE

Principle 21 of United Nations 1972 Stockholm

Conference on the Human Environment

• transboundary pollution

• national sovereignty

• shared responsibilities

DRIVING FORCES

Effects of air pollution

. dose-response functions

. critical loads and levels

. exceedances

POLITICAL RESPONSE

• reduction and elimination of

exceedances in the entire region

• fairness among countries

EMISSION REDUCTIONS

• abatement options

• cost-effective measures

• recovery of geochemical and

ecological systems

Observation and prediction of recovery shows

the Convention is moving towards preventing

air pollution effects

CONVENTION ON LONG-RANGE TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION

Negotiating effects-based emission ceilings

Abatement

options and

their costs

Integrated

assessment

model

Critical load

maps, critical

levels, environ-

mental data

Emissions

projections

Source - receptor

relationship

(atmospheric

transport)

Environmental

targets

Protocol emission ceilingsProtocol emission ceilings

Scenario analysis Cost minimization

NegotiationsNegotiationsBenefit

assessment

REGIONAL COOPERATION

• CLRTAP APINA

• EANET Central Asia

• Malé Declaration IANABIS

• ASEAN Haze UNEP Joint

Forum

GLOBAL CONCERNS

Global Atmospheric Pollution Forum

. integration

. co-benefits

Multi-pollutant / multi-effects approach:

extended version for a future protocol ?

Acidification

Eutrophication

Tropospheric ozone

SO2

NH3

NOx

NMVOC

Climate change

PM10 / PM2.5

Urban air quality

CO

CH4

CO2

N 2O

primary

PM

Co-benefits of GHG mitigation on human health

in India Source: GAINS-Asia

National

energy

projection

+220% CO2

in 2030

Climate

scenario

+150% CO2

in 20300

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 National

projections

2030

Climate

scenario

2030

Months

Loss in statistical life expectancy due to PM2.5

http://gains.iiasa.ac.at

Co-benefits of GHG mitigation on crop losses

in China Source: GAINS-Asia

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Maize Rice Soybean Wheat

Change in c

rop loss c

om

pare

d to 2

005

Business-as-usual 2030 Climate scenario 2030

Change in crop loss due to ground-level ozone compared to 2005

Rice:

crop loss

calculated

for 2030

baseline

Wheat:

crop loss

calculated

for 2030

baseline

http://gains.iiasa.ac.at

From RAINS to GAINS:

multi-pollutant measures

• Structural measures (which affect activity levels):

– Energy savings, efficiency improvements, bans: all pollutants ↓↓↓↓– Increased use of natural gas: CO2, SO2, VOC, NOx, PM ↓↓↓↓ CH4 ↑↑↑↑– Biomass: CO2 ↓↓↓↓ VOC, PM, CH4 ↑↑↑↑

• Technical measures for stationary sources:

– SCR, SNCR: NOx, CO ↓↓↓↓, NH3, N2O ↑↑↑↑– Fluidized bed combustion: SO2, NOx↓↓↓↓, N2O ↑↑↑↑– Advanced residential combustion: VOC, PM, CO, CH4 ↓↓↓↓– FGD: SO2, PM ↓↓↓↓ CO2 ↑↑↑↑– IGCC: CO2, SO2, NOx, PM ↓↓↓↓– CHP: all pollutants ↓↓↓↓

• Technical measures for mobile sources:

– Euro-standards: NOx, VOC, PM, CO ↓↓↓↓ NH3, N2O ↑↑↑↑– Low sulfur fuels: SO2, PM ↓↓↓↓– Diesel: CO2, VOC↓↓↓↓, PM, NOx, SO2 ↑↑↑↑

• Agricultural sources:

– Low emission pig housing: NH3, CH4 ↓↓↓↓ N2O ↑↑↑↑– Covered storage of slurry: NH3 ↓↓↓↓ CH4 ↑↑↑↑– Injection of manure: NH3 ↓↓↓↓ N2O ↑↑↑↑– Anaerobic digestion (biogas): CH4, N2O ↓↓↓↓ CO2 ↑↑↑↑ NHNHNHNH3333 ↓↓↓↓↑↑↑↑

• Other sources

– Improving flaring efficiency: PM, VOC, NOx, SO2, CO ↓↓↓↓– Gas recovery and flaring: CH4 ↓↓↓↓ CO2, PM, VOC, SO2, NOx, CO ↑↑↑↑– Gas recovery and re-use: CH4 ↓↓↓↓ CO2 ↑↑↑↑– Waste incineration: CH4 ↓↓↓↓ CO2 ↑↑↑↑– Gas recovery from wastewater treatment: CH4 ↓↓↓↓ CO2 ↑↑↑↑

In total we have identified approx. 500 measures with multi-pollutant impacts

Multi-pollutant measures(Cont’d)

SHORT-CUTS BETWEEN SCIENCE

AND POLICY

• legally binding agreements (lengthy process)

• political declarations and resolutions (quick process)

• bi-, tri-, etc. -lateral arrangements (quick?)

• voluntary ad hoc measures (limited targets)

• non-governmental policy cooperation

- big city administrations

- activity sectors (industry)

- public interest groups, youth groups, religious

communities

SCIENTISTS AND POLICY-MAKERS: PROMOTE

STRONG TWO-WAY COMMUNICATION

• scientific journalists for public awareness-raising

• non-governmental organizations (public interest groups, science, industry)

• common information strategies

• common hearings and knowledge-sharing

• common responsibilities: cost and benefit

• long-term consequences, options

• issue integration

• precautionary step-by-step approach, intermediate targets

• flexible responses

GUIDANCE FOR POLICY-MAKERS

• Base action on sound science

• Consult the Handbook and other

sources

• Recognize good examples

• Be impatiently patient

THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE