investment outlook - axys group · investment outlook . ... swan retreated further ... which will...

Fast Track Forward to

Trades & Movements by Sector Theme of the Week

Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com

11.60

WoW Movements

NMHL

Foreign Participation

Earnings:

Market Indices

▲

Laggers

-3.9 3.4RHT

Fund NAVs

MK

Pref Shares

[Rs M]11.5

110.50

▲USD/MUR

Δ WoW[Rs]

916.790.19

4.20

Latest

SBM

-3.3

MDIT

[Rs]

0.89%

Leaders

LOTO

10.35

26.30

ROGE

[%]

VEM

ETFs/Commodities

29.00

1Yr T-Bill

-3.6 429

COND — INVH

Share of TMT

Forex Mkt Watch

Corporate Bonds

TPL ALTEO

BoM Interventions

1.9%

Foreign participation plummeted with TMT at itslowest since Christmas

Selling pressures the bourse had been under forweeks eased off

Indices experienced their strongest unilateralWoW gains since late July

Trading was significantly less skewed towards ahandful of stocks

We peer at Construction & Property sectors onPg3

0.06

3.10

3.3 10.60

Prices & Spot Rates

20,148 MCBCIEL

361350

[# k]

602

Investment Outlook23-Oct-2015

Equity Equity

5.90 2.8

TERRA

28.00ROGE

3.6

[%]Most

Active

▲ALEX-20

16.0

Volume

COND — INVH

-6.6

Latest

-4.4

3.20

Fixed Income

Most Active

ValueΔ WoW

36.218.07 0.54%

Mkt Summary

MFD

31.1SBM

6.3

Currency

Weekly Prices:

9.9

FIN — CONS Sov./Interbank Rates

Spot Rates

5.5

BLFE

Mkt Comm/Divs

FIN — CONS

News Snippets

NMHL(P) NMHLROGE

900

950

1,000

1,050

Inde

x [p

ts]

-0

4

8

12

16

Δ% in

USD

/MU

R si

nce

30-S

ep-1

4

1.00

1.75

2.50

3.25

1Yr-

GM

TB [%

]

40%

26%

14%

7% 5%

8% FIN

MSCH

T&L

INVH

COND

Others

-0.0

-1.7

1.0 0.8

0.4

FIN MSCH T&L INVH COND

WoW

Chn

age

[%]

1

Market Indices

MC [Rs bn] ▲ ▲Δ MC [%] ▲ ▲TO [Rs M] ▼ ▼FP [%] ▼ ▼NFP [Rs M] ▲ ▲PER [x] ▲ ▲DY [%] ▲ ▼PBV [x] ▲ ▲ROE [%] ▲ ▼

L HALCAPEX-12 ▲ALEX-20 ▲SEMSI ▲SEMDEX ▲S&P Pan Africa* ▼MSCI Frontier* ▲MSCI World* ▲S&P 500* ▲ESTX Eur 50* ▲FTSE 100* ▲Nikkei 225 ▲MSCI Emerging* ▼S&P Asia 50* ▼Sensex* ▲

Foreign Participation


0.2%

23-Oct

-11.3%96.9

PBVAs at

1 Wk YTD

-1.3% 5.7%

-9.8% -12.2%

0.27% -15.0% -22.3%0.81% -1.8% 2.3%1.42%

518.62

1,859.50

520.04

0.40% -9.0%

17.9

Val YoY

916.79

1,689.33

162.911,871.15 0.63%

0.890.91

121.1

15.017.0

23-Oct-15

5.2

-16.0

5.8Key:MC = Mkt Cap.; Δ MC = Change in Mkt Cap,; TO =Turnover; FP = Foreign Participation; NFP = Net ForeignPurchases; PER = Price-Earnings Ratio; DY = Div. Yield;PBV = Price-Book (Net Asset Value) Ratio; ROE = Returnon Equity.

‒ 52Wk ‒Indices

-19.5

3.91

71.7

0.89

86.118.7

-1.57%

86.1

Week Ended

-12.1%

16-Oct1,263.57

Investment Outlook

-2.7%1.63%15.0

167.70.90.4

23-Oct-2015

267.9All SEM Liquid 20

3.91 0.87-12.1%

0.87

15.9

-10.9% -13.6%1,268.60

908.72

Change

PER DY

0.89%

3.37

4.06 1.3610.1

1.66

96.2997.86 82.6

160.35

2,023.86

27,288

18.8

27,010

19.612.510.121.5

2.55 2.15

3.53% 6.6%

-0.4%

18.31,675.77

6,338.67

18.3

13.2 3.773.51

23.2

2.12 2.763.44 1.554.08 1.83

-12.6%-0.27% -3.4% -0.8%

Activity Spread

3,448.381.38

11.5%0.59%

3,353.11-2.6% 0.1%

18,825858.17

2.92% 7.9%

2.7% 1.38

2.951.57

3.061.03% 2.95

3,238.812,052.51

18,292864.73

6,376.28

3,457.63-0.76% -10.1%

1.30

Net Flows

23.9%

* Previous day's closing prices

-12 -11

1 3 2

SBM MCB CIEL ROGE ALTEO

Net

For

eign

pur

chas

es [R

s m]

95

110

125

140

Indi

ces

reba

sed

to 1

00 o

n 3

0-Se

p-20

12

SEM-SI MSCI FM ALEX-20 ALCAPEX-12

33%

30%

10%

8%

5%

14% SBM

MCB

CIEL

ROGE

ALTEO

2

Investment Outlook 23-Oct-2015

Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947 Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com

Summary & Highlights

Shifting Sentiment? Things were different on the local market this week. Foreign

participation plummeted from a well-above average 60% last

week to a well-below average 16% this week. Consequently,

the alleviation of selling pressures the bourse had been under

for weeks, allowed indices to experienced their strongest

unilateral WoW gains {ALEX 20 (+0.9%), ALCAPEX 12 (+0.4%) &

SEMDEX (+0.6%)} since late July. Trading was significantly less

skewed towards a handful of stocks; however, weekly TMT at

121M stood at its lowest since Christmas.

Financial

Trading on the banks was in-line with their respective share of

market caps: MCB [26%] at a higher Rs209.50 (+2.0%) and SBM

[13%] – which traded between (±0%) and 80cts (+1.2%) 79cts

but overwhelmingly at its closing price of (±0%) – 79cts

continued to experience some foreign selling but at a

substantially lower rate. Insurer, MEI plunged to 2Yr-Low Rs96

(-2.0%) in-line with recent impairments while illiquid SWAN

retreated further from recent record levels to 11Wk-Low

Rs429.50 (-1.7%).

Travel & Leisure

NMHL recouped its mid-week losses to finish unaltered WoW

at (±0%) while NMHL(P) traded below its par value Rs18

resulting in a DY of 6.23% (+23bps) and an expected YTM of

11.7% at first conversion. Similarly, LUX recouped 50cts to

Rs57.75 as bids piled up while SUN fell by the same quantum to

Rs36.25 in late trading on Friday. CHSL was appreciably traded

at a flat while parent company HTLS slid to Rs36.75 (-Rs36

0.8%). Biz. Hotel operator TPL also improved to Rs5.90 (+2.8%).

This week’s star performer, MK, soared to 10Wk-High Rs11.90

(+11%) intraday on Thursday but eased off to Rs11.60 (+11.5%)

by week’s end following the disclosure of the Govt.’s plan to

develop a SIN-MRU air corridor to ferry both goods and

passengers more effectively between East-Asia and East-Africa.

In stark contrast, LOTO – as retail investors continue to dump

the stock as a direct consequence of Government policies

towards gaming – bottomed out at new record low Rs3 (-9.6%)

mid-week but recouped part of its losses Rs3.10 (-6.6%).

Multi-Sector Conglomerates/Holdings

Lest for a few exceptions: OMNI which rebounded to Rs68

(+1.1%), HML which weakened further to 5½Yr-Low Rs95.50 (-

3.0%) and GAMMA at Rs25 (-0.4%); MSCH were atypically

active throughout the week. ROGE [8%] recovered from recent

plunge on large vols., trading at VWAP Rs27.35 (+0.9%) and

closing at Rs28 (+3.3%). TERRA [5%] – which was exchanged at

VWAP Rs28.05 (+0.2%) – recorded its strongest 1-day gain

(+2.8%) since Feb on Friday with bids at Rs29 (+3.6%). IBL

edged lower to Rs109 (-0.5%) and MEDL to Rs62.50 (-0.8%)

while ALTEO edged up to Rs34.20 (+0.6%). EUDC at (±0%) Rs15

and UTIN at (±0%) remained the same. Rs13.65

Consumer Staples | Discretionary

VEM [3%] which tumbled to 4¾Yr-Low Rs110.50 (-2.2%) and

CTL at Rs39.75 (-0.1%) were the most active consumer stocks.

Illiquids fell sharply: LFL to 6Wk-Low Rs24.50 (-2.0%), VITAL to

2Yr-Low Rs48 (-2.0%), and RHT to 2¾Yr-Low Rs26.30 (-4.4%).

Rarely traded LMLC(P) traded with a slightly lower DY of 6.41 (-

2bps). SODIA hovered between and 59cts (+1.7%) closing 58cts

at the higher bound which represents a gross 5.1% upside to its

expected wind up price.

Materials | Property | Industrials

Materials counters closed in red: UBP to 7Mth-Low Rs77 (-

1.3%), and sister concerns BYCH & CHEM to respective Rs8 (-

0.7%) and 11Mth-Low Rs20.25 (-3.1%). ASCE – whose Div.

policy on Class B shares was changed from 32% of total to

‘board discretion’ – was atypically active at (±0%) and Rs13.40

its major shareholder, ENLL, inched infinitesimally higher to

Rs47 (+0.1%). BLFE improved to Rs4.20 (+3.4%) while CAUD

dropped to Rs1.24 (-3.1%). Freeport operator MFD registered a

steep drop to 16Mth-Low Rs10.35 (-3.3%).

Investment Holdings

CIEL – which traded at VWAP Rs6.78 (+0.3%) but closed

unaltered WoW at (±0%) – was expectedly the most Rs6.76

exchanged INVH counter. MDIT rebounded from recent lows to

Rs4.98 (+1.6%) while NITL slid to Rs40.10 (-2.2%). FIDES was

appreciably traded at 6Yr-Low Rs64 (-1.2%) but finished at

Rs64.50 (-0.4%). ENL(P) – ENL Group’s non-voting share – and

subsidiary ENIT improved to respective Rs26.50 (+1.9%) and

Rs46.50 (+1.1%) albeit on relatively thin vols.

3

Market Announcements

News Snippets

Dividend Declarations

COMPANY

MCB ▲ALPL ▲NFPL ▲


4.25 3.10 37.1% 29-Sep-15 12-Nov-15 17-Dec-15 Fin 20.03 N/A 12-Oct-15 Int ?

Freq. p.a.Previous


Pay DateDeclarationProperties

TypeDiv/Div Ex-Div.ChangeDividend Key Dates

Current

0.03 N/A 23-Oct-15 10-Nov-15 16-Nov-15 Fin ?

The Government's emphasis on "smart city" development is likely to alleviate the Construction sector's – in recession since Q4-12 – woes as well as thoseof the slowing – in real terms since Q4-12 – Property sector. Call us blasé if you wish, as we are not entirely convinced – at present – that there will besufficient domestic demand to mop up the additional upcoming supply given the apparent stagnation of Residential and Office segments.

Real GDP Growth [%]Nominal GDP [Rs bn]

Real

Est

ate

Cons

truc

tion

Ascencia Ltd (ASCE)At its special shareholder meeting, shareholders approved the issue of new Class A shares, Convertible Non-Voting Preference Shares, and Redeemablesbonds to be placed as determined by the board in bundles worth ~Rs1M. Shareholders also approved a change in dividend policy for Class B shareholderswhich will now be determined by the board rather than being 32% of total dividends declared.

Delta Africa Property Holdings Ltd (DELP)DELP will acquire from ROCK shares in two Zambian malls in Ndola and Kitwe for $21.6M representing 50% of the malls which have been valued at $91.2M.The purchase will be financed through private placements and/or bank loans. DELP believes this is a unique opportunity to enter a new market. With along-term hold strategy for malls, DELP has priced in risks associated with the short-term closure of mines. The expected gross rental yield stands at 8.4%and PAT during FY16 at $1M.

New Frontier Properties Ltd (NFPL)NFPL has chosen to enter the UK-Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) regime effective on Oct 21st 2015. Subsequently, the company’s management andcontrol have been transferred to the UK. Changes to its board of directors and company constitution have also been made.

3 3 4

4

4

5 5

5

75 78

85

89

95

101

107

99

Q1-8 Q1-9 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1 -14 Q1 -15

Property

GDP

4

6

5

2

4 3 4

3 3

2

4

2

3 3 3

2

Q1-8 Q1-9 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1 -14 Q1 -15

GDP Property

4

5

5

6 5

4

4 4

75 78

85

89 95

101

107

99

Q1-8 Q1-9 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1 -14 Q1 -15

Construction

GDP

7

23

5

2

-9

-19

-9 -5

4 6 5 2 4 3 4 3

Q1-8 Q1-9 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1 -14 Q1 -15

Construction GDP

4

Stock Movements — FIN, T&L, MSCH, & CONS

MCB ▲ ASBM ▬ HCIM ▲FINC ▼MEI ▼MUA ▬SWAN ▼SWANL ▬

NMHL ▬ HLUX ▲ ASUN ▼ HCHSL ▬HTLS ▼TPL ▲SCT ▬MOLI ▬MK ▲LOTO ▼ASL ▲

ALTEO ▲TERRA ▲OMNI ▲MEDL ▼IBL ▼ROGE ▲HML ▼GAMMA ▼EUDC ▬UTIN ▬

INNO ▬MOR ▼PBL ▬PHIN ▬QBL ▬VITAL ▼UNSE ▬CSE ▬SODIA ▲LFL ▼LMLC ▬MIL ▬SAIL ▬MCOS ▬GOLI ▬CMPL ▬


24.50

— — 0.4

923.00

14.700.0%

3.4—

14.700.03

-5.7%

0.0%0.0

—

9.0

0.014.70

19.95 -5.2%

—

0.3

-25.0%-39.6%-20.5%

13.65

-2.0%28.00

-19.7%

3.6% 0.3%

0.03

168.2%

4.3%

-30.6%

48.00

-9.7%

149.00

101.000.59

19.95923.00

-8.3%

0.0

56.00 6.7%

250.00

10.9

4.914.2

—

7.68

15.00

34.00

13.842.00

—

55.1%

-6.7%

45.10

7.68

38.00

45.10

250.00

1.5%

0.3

2.2

10.40 11.20 0.8-72.2%

2.3

3.02.6

-4.9%

28.05

25.10

400.00

Investment Outlook

23-Oct ROE31.1

7.848.5-19.4%

L ‒ 52Wk ‒ H

8.9

3.3%0.9-20.0% 10.2

5.3

68.00

41.80

36.00

11.60

6.0041.80

3.2

6.3

7.84

1.4

18.00

— —

3.3241.80

1.3

29.00 -12.1%

-13.5%

3.8

96.253.4

1,000

5.90

36.00

34.20 34.10

0.0

2.0%5.5

5.7436.75

0.0%

Change16-Oct

SecurityYoY

0.0%-34.6%

36.9%

18.55

1,000

VWAP YTD

23-Oct-2015

Fina

ncia

lTr

avel

& L

eisu

re

PER

57.75

0.0

17.95

429.75

7.7%

Week Ended

18.70

-19.5%

18.50

36.25

0.79

37.05

24.8

3.8

2.0

0.1

-1.1%

20.576.3%0.4

10%—

5.1

-0.5%

5.2-54.1% 6.0

36.75

—

109.50

25.00

28.00

0.6

400.0026.50

-12.8%

—

3.4-53.3%

2.8 2.8

10.0

67.50

3.19

15.0013.65

27.35

25.00

109.0027.10

62.50

—

M.S

ecto

r Con

glom

erat

e/Ho

ldin

g

-24.8%

19.998.50

—

42.003.10

109.00

95.50

41.80

-14.0%-17.4%

-17.9%

22.5

63.00

32.9

3.3

6.00

400.00

28.0% —

26.30

67.25 0.6

Cons

umer

Sta

ples

8.0

0.0

0.4 -0.7%

1.7—

2.856.00

149.0011.7

19.9056.00

—

13.65

101.00

4.714.2 6.0—

6.5 4.9

-24.0%

28.0%

4.117.0

6.3

126.9%

83.6%

12.9

62.4

49.00

250.00

26.30

25.000.58

38.00

-0.7%24.50

29.5

—

0.58

0.2

2.3

23.0%

7.0

9.6

149.25 0.1

15.00 1.1

-25.7%

12.20.6

14.510.60.0

7.2—

2.8

—0.2

1.0

0.0

0.048.0038.00

0.1

45.10

7.68

1.138.1

62.50 0.8

2.3

0.2

0.9%1.8

101.00

95.50

— 15.8

0.2%

-4.0% 1.4

—

18.7%5.3

1.5

13% 0.8

0.4

0.6

—

1.2

10.3—

—

6.9

2.3

14.6

0.6

0.5

13.9

1.5

4.8

0.70.5

43.1 3.70.4

2.1

1.9

1.0

1.9—

13.310.0

4.5

0.6

—

1.8

— — 0.8

0.0

12.1 10.3—

2.0-34.1%

0.0

0.8

—

-17.8%

0.5 -70.2%

5.90 0.0— 2.1—

-21.3%

-35.9% -45.2% —

3.0

-17.9%

9.9

-21.2%

9.4

85.6

—

92.4%

—

0.4

-2.6%

9.43.7

-16.3%

2.8— -19.4%

0.20.4

12.9%

4.3%

15.5—

2.2

358.0

-6.4%

28.2%12.1

-14.6%

-11.2%

1.7

17.4-4.4%

— 0.5

30.6

1.6

1.0

4.20.3

-16.4%

0.7

117.1

22.6%

-8.0%

36.4535.6

-38.5%

66.00

1.446.0

66.00

2.24.6%

—

1.5

36.00

-2.2%

—

-32.3%1.457.25

2.8

0.2

0.626.0

429.5066.00

18.00

1.819.7-5.3%

23-Oct-15

15.9

As atVal.

4.0 1.8-9.5%0.616.0

9.1

7.8028.5

99.00

209.256.3

205.500.79

PBV

0.91.1-20.6% -12.4%

437.00

20.83.3

8.7209.50

96.00

DY

0.79

0.5

57.75

15.6%

1.1

36.75 1.0

6.60.6

5

Stock Movements — COND, PROP, GBL1, MAT, IND, ENGY, HLTH, COMM & INVH

CTL ▼VEM ▼ENLC ▬ABC ▬RHT ▼UBS ▬ACC ▬MSIL ▬ENLL ▲ASCE ▬ASCE(B) ▬BLFE ▲CAUD ▼CIMO ▬NOVUS ▬APL ▬COVI ▬UTDL ▬ROCK ▬SAREF ▬ALPL ▬DELP ▬GFP ▬NFPL ▬UBP ▼MCFI ▬CHEM ▼BYCH ▼GAZ ▬PIM ▬PCCL ▬MFD ▼ AFORT ▬CARGO ▬

Eng

SHUMBA ▬

Hlth MASC ▬

Com

BTEL ▬CIEL ▬MDIT ▲POLI ▬NITL ▼PAD ▬BMHL ▬ENL(P) ▲ENIT ▲FIDES ▼DALE ▬


6.90 6.90 — — -13.6% -16.9% 15.7 6.4 0.8 4.9

0.0 -17.8% -19.0%1.2

— 1.8

-16.7%

27.50 0.2 3.8%

16.30.5

26.40

2.4

1.43.3

-9.4% -8.2%

1.34.4-8.1%

2.1 -9.3%

77.1

0.7 2.6

3.1

0.5

95.000.1% 26.227.50 27.50

13.8%— 13.8%64.00 1.4

3.20.0%26.00

46.35 0.1 -0.6%

4.0

-2.5% 82.5 2.6

11.9

2.80 —

0.5

— 48.164.50 0.4

2.80 8.364.75

1.0%

21.00

27.4

-14.0% -18.5%

30.00 — —0.10 — — 2.20

—

—

0.6 1.3

1.314.6

1.8

—

5.96.7

0.9

0.60.595.00 95.00 0.8

4.9

—

0.0%

11.1

41.00

70.00

6.76 6.76

40.10

10.35

0.0% 18.6

4.98

10.70 10.35

6.76

18.1% 20.8—

-82.1%

4.904.1

40.100.06.76

6.78 -6.6% -9.0%

—

18.8

Indu

stria

lIn

vest

men

t Hol

ding

-20.7% -23.0%

3.046.50 46.00

—

0.1

Mat

eria

ls

0.1 -12.5% -12.5%

— 37.8%

— — -9.6% -2.8%

-6.9%

15.5

—

70.00

4.97

— 1.2% 3.0%

— 0.10

8.50

— -1.9%

0.7 22.6%1.6

0.6

10.40

21.00 26.5

GBL

1 Pr

oper

ty

4.0%

4.1

6.4

44.3

1.2

77.00 78.00

-10.0%

155.50

8.50 — — -85.7%

155.50 154.2530.00

0.0

17.6-11.1%

-22.3%

50.00 50.00

—

1.0

1.24

-22.2%10.40

0.6923.8

14.00 —

26.50

2.4 27.0

—

0.0

0.07.00

—

20.25 -7.7% 15.1 5.4 1.2-12.0%

0.08

2.17

1.10

0.4195.4

1.0

—

10.407.00 —

— 0.3

76.00—

0.0% N/A 45.0 — 2.2

—

3.937.017.1

6.8

-9.9% 7.8

—

1.5

2.7

—

2.5

7,338

—

—

0.0

0.8

— 0.0

-3.0%

4.13

4.4%

0.88.8

1.28

1.75

7.0076.00

4.20 4.06

— 0.0%-3.9% -0.8%1.24

423.00

11.8%76.00

10.4%18.2

0.4

4.9

4.5 0.4

1.10

2.17

15.4

-26.3%

N/A

0.2

3.6— 12.6% 25.1%

—

4.9

0.8

0.5

0.93.2 0.5

5.2

— —

-3.2%

0.0

19.45

2.81.0 13.8%

39.6%11.5%

2.6 0.6

4.6

2.0

1.9—

3.2

18.6

23-Oct-15Change As at

5.8 6.3 1.0 17.230.6

0.8 —

YTD YoY PER DY16-Oct


SecurityWeek Ended

L ‒ 52Wk ‒ H 23-Oct PBV ROE

0.0 -33.3% -32.3% — 8.8

0.0

— — 24.6%

1.0

— 1.2

-2.0%

2.710.4%

1.20 — — 97.7%30.1 7.1

-16.0%8.2

8.00 8.06 —

-6.9%

7.84

21.00 0.1

6.76

1.6

0.0

10.2

N/A0.08 — —

2.3

—

0.8 4.3

0.3 2.1

0.9 —

0.7-0.6%1.20 — 2.5

2.20

4.8

0.3

1.5

20.20

0.9%77.00—

1.4

4.3

—

-16.7%

5.50 5.50 —

0.2

2.12.6

2.3

—

9.7 6.1 1.3 13.868.8 1.6

20.90

2.5

1.75 — — 2.9%

N/A

4.4—

94.00 94.00 93.75

VWAP Val.

5.80.5

27.5032.30

-8.6%

-14.7%-24.2% -11.0%

31.5046.95

—

2.7

8.915.7

11.726.30

—

31.50

39.75 39.804.2 -19.3% -18.8%

39.75 1.6 6.7% 8.7%

13.40 13.4047.00

-15.0%-15.0%-5.5%

19.45 19.45—

153.75 153.75

80.000.0

110.50

Prop

erty

—

423.00

26.30—

115.00 112.00

47.00 2.0

80.00

31.50 -2.7% 8.0

0.1 -4.3%

-5.5%

-2.7% -3.3%

14.00

——32.30

13.40

Cons

umer

Dis

cret

iona

ry

2.416.1

-37.9%

0.7

6

Results for Financial Year ended Jun 30th 2015 — FIN, T&L, MSCH, CONS & ENGY

Result comments

MCB ▲

FINC ▼

MEI ▼

LUX ▲

SUN ▲

TPL ▼

ALTEO ▲

MEDL ▼

IBL ▲

ROGE ▲

EUDC ▼

UTIN ▲

INNO ▲

MOR ▲

PBL ▲

PHIN ▲

SODIA ▲

LFL ▲

LMLC ▲

Engy

SHUMBA ▼


1.41 0.65 116Org. growth in Hospitality (+77%), Logistics (+19%), & RE/Agri foll. land sales; while Fin. & Prop.clusters grew fr acquisitions. Aviatn affected by loss of rep. of select East African airlines.

Although turnover decreased to Rs1.22bn due to lower retail prices, edible oils op. profits werestable at Rs24M. PAT boost stemmed from MCM and other operations.

39

In-line with increased sales vol. (+4%), local rev grew by 4.7% to Rs4.57bn coupled with slightimprovement in op. margins from 8.4% to 8.9% while losses in Reunion deteriorated to Rs20M.

0.83.15

PBL's holding company. Please see note above.

120

17.07

5.55

0.05

* Adj for non-recurrent items, unrealised fair value gains, and discontinued operations

3.74

54

-1.23 -0.98 -26All Segments fared worse except for Property (+4%). Agri due to sugar price ↓, Leisure due to roomrate ↓ & Casela upgrades. Education seg. also recorded steeper losses.

7.86 6.69 17Slim Rev. ↑ in all sectors except Seafood (+25%). Consumer (Retail + Seafd) PAT ↑ ~ 27%, while Eng.depressed due to weak construction. Fin sector hurt by MEI's imp & Gabon written-off.

1.02

1.24

3.18

Invmt (+34%), Rental (+7%), and Distillery (+9.0%) all improved, but Comm losses ↑ foll. IDM's lossof JWalker + ↓ rates @ hotel → PAT of Rs148M (-5%).

Turnover fell by just Rs9M to Rs571M; however closure and refurbishment costs of LabourdonnaisHotel resulted in a Rs44M in op. profits to Rs25M.

Mtius Sugar: Rev ↓ Rs1.9bn (-17%) → ↑ losses of Rs217M; TPC Rev (+11%) but PAT flat ; ↑ coal use@ const. Rev → Engy PAT ↓ to Rs78M. ↑ Prop. sales key PAT booster. (Rs67M v/s -Rs115M).0.75

UTIN does not conso. investee P&L which it treats as invmt portfolio. FV Gains on pfolio ↑ 26% toRs228m driven by Hospitality & Financial services clusters.

Rev grew to Rs4.3bn (+2%) coupled with a 7% increase in op. profits to Rs227M. Moz. Poultry opsremained loss-making due to imports → full impmt @ company level.

1.55

19.52

-0.30

16.88

39

-6.5

1.25

0.65

25

41

1.39

P to L

Boosted by a substantial bump in occ. rate from 62% to 76%, turnover grew by 5% to Rs4.3bn andop. profits jumped 50% to Rs418M coupled with alleviated fin. Costs.

Rev stood slightly lower at Rs2.06bn (-3.0%). However op. marg, improved by 55bps to 6.3%. PATprincipally boosted by lower fin costs and improved assoc. (LMLC).2.69

12.20

1.04

0.95

Mul

ti-Se

ctor

Con

glom

erat

/Hol

ding

L to P

1.08 16

16

Revenue grew by 8% to Rs132M coupled with improved op. marg of 9% (FY14: 6.4%). SODIA’soperations will be bought by MEDL and SODIA wound up at ~62cts per share.

Cons

umer

Sta

ples

-58

0.03

In spite of a slight drop in sales rev. to Rs2.08bn (-4.2%), Op. margins jumped from from 1.9% to3.2% due to fall in wheat prices and also due to fin. Income of Rs24M.

14.87 15

-0.01 -0.00 As a Jr Mining Co, no profits were expected. The mining sector is facing rough times with lowcommodity prices and new investments at their lowest levels in years.

Trav

el &

Lei

sure

1.96

Rev. on par at Rs1.3bn. Gains in Gen. Insu offset by Leasing ↓ (credit tightening). ↑ Claims → Insuop. profit ↓ by Rs9M. Leasing op. prof. of Rs3M (FY14: Rs128M) due to imp.

24.03

-57

23-Oct-2015

Jun-15 % Δ

Boosted by both occ. rate ↑ of 77% (FY14: 71%) + ↑ rates. Mdves ↑ 10% @ const marg. Mtius ↑43% to Rs2.6bn but op. margins stood lower at 16% (FY14: 19%) foll. renovations.

0.14

44

2.78

9.52

16.65

Turnover ↑ to Rs422M (+2.3%) and op. profits by 11% to Rs57M; however the substantially reducedcontribution from associate PAD of Rs28M (FY14: Rs124M) led to a fall in EPS.

0.82

-0.08

YoY

Full-Year FinancialsFi

nanc

ial

1.52

Jun-14Adj. EPS*

-91

FY Ended

Loan ↑ 10% + Depo ↑ 18% → LDR ↓ to 78%. NII Marg. +20bps → NII ↑ 12% toRs8.2bn. NFCI ↑17% while OI ↓ 2% due to FX. CIR ↓ fr 44.6% to 41.8% + halving of imp. → PAT of Rs5.8bn.

7

Results for Financial Year ended Jun 30th 2015 — COND, PROP, GBL1, MAT & INVH

Result comments

CTL ▲

ENLC ▼

ABC ▲

RHT ▼

UBS ▲

ACC ▼

MSIL ▼

ENLL ▼

ASCE ▲

CAUD ▼

NOVUS ▲

UTDL ▼

ROCK ▼

DELP ▲

UBP ▼

GAZ ▼

PIM ▼

CIEL ▲

MDIT ▲

NITL ▲

PAD ▼

ENL(P) ▲

ENIT ▲

FIDES ▼


-55 Related to CAUD, MEDL, EUDC, SODIA, MFD.

7.1

Profits halved due to a 44% drop in turnover coupled with a drop Rs1M in investment income.

FY Ended

-28

In spite difficult conditions in public transport, revenue improved to Rs761M (+16%) but op. marginsshrank from 6.5% to 5.8%.

YoY

6.23

3.95

Jun-15

GBL

1 Pr

oper

ty

Full-Year Financials

21 Dividend income was higher coupled with portfolio gains v/s losses in FY14.

1.96

Adj. EPS*

Core transport Rev on par at Rs212M but op. profits ↓ to Rs4.7M (-40%). Fin seg op. profits ↑ toRs47M (+58%) but outweighed by apparent loss in prop. cluster.

-49

-1.2

-74

ROGE's holding company. Please see note above.

Although revenue was quasi-flat at Rs2.36bn, op. profits fell by Rs28M due to poor economic env.(recession for cons.) + overseas losses in Mada & S.Lanka.

1.89 18 ENL Group's holding. Related to ENLL, ENLC, ENIT, ROGE and ASCE.

0.26 0.23 15MDIT’s portfolio income was flat and a substantially higher surplus mitigated lower proceeds fromsales of investments.

0.91 0.75

Turnover increased by 3% to Rs234M; however MUR’s depreciation and resulting ↑ cost of rawmats hurt margins which fell from 9% to 7.5%.

L to P

1.15 2.55

Operating profits plunged 62% to Rs3.6M following a near 2-fold increase in operating expenses toRs32M.

2.592.56

1.37

8.60 -16

0.56 -0.14

% Δ

1.42

23-Oct-2015

5.82

-0.52

While divs from REIT investments improved 44% to $78M, FV gains on REITs stood at just $21M(FY14: $105M). Also FX loss of $78M booked, thus lowering PAT.0.01

-1.10

First full year of operations. Rental income derived from mall in Casa Blanca and office space inMaputo.

Cons

umer

Dis

cret

iona

ry

0.45 0.37 22Following a full-year including the new malls, ASCE’s rental income ↑ to Rs418M (+26%) coupledwith improved results at JV resulting in a 22% rise in Adj PAT to R167M.

0.00 0.07 -98Prop Rev ↓ to Rs207 (-5%) + lower op. marg. of 25% (FY14: 40%) due to renovations. On plus side,Security biz improved → 3x increase in op. profits.

Jun-14

1.34

7.80

28.44 -20 Revenue fell by 14% to Rs254M coupled with op. margins of 7.6% against 9.4% in FY14.

Revenue dropped slightly to Rs115M (-3.0%) but op. margins shrank substantially from 14% to 8.5%due to increase in op. costs and provisioning of receivables.

INVH 0.38 0.28

Prop

erty

0.44Rental income grew by 14% to Rs11.3M coupled with the halving of finance costs → a 3x increase inPBT to Rs6.6M.

Rev. boosted by 1st full-year for Cogir conso; however profits ↓ in all segments: Sugar due to lowerprices & cyclical Land due to lower sales.

0.29

-113

50

1.27

-93

6.90 5.30 30Growth driven by Asian ops. Knits Rev on par at Rs4.5bn + broader EBIT marg. of 8% (FY14: 7%).Woven Rev grew to Rs5.6bn (+12%) + improved EBIT marg. of 10% (FY14: 8.5%).

2.23

7.20

-0.14 0.43 P to LAuto Rev ↑ to Rs1.8bn (+18%) but op. marg. halved foll. MUR's dep + ↑ sales of small cars.Plastinax & Nabridas improved while Grewals reg. steeper losses due to poor construction.

10.32 5.95 73The Nissan and Porsche dealer grew sales rev. by 26% to Rs1.7bn at const. op. margin coupled witha 3.3x jump in results from assocs presumably driven by ABC Banking.

22.77

0.16

-5.3

2.082.86

0.84

35

-63Construction mat. op. profits ↑ fr 22M to Rs37M offset by halving of other inc. to Rs17M + loss ↑ atassoc (Haute Rive hotels on North East coast).2.25

Mat

eria

ls

5.16

* Adj for non-recurrent items, unrealised fair value gains, and discontinued operations

CIEL Group's holding . Related to SUN, CTL, MASC, and ALTEO. Non-quoted financial cluster showedmarked improvement with PBT increasing by 58% to Rs885M.

37

8

Preference Shares with Fixed Dividends

NMHL(P) ▲ENLL(P) ▬TPL(P) ▬LFL(P) ▬LMLC(P) ▼

Debt Securities

OMNI 3Y [5.70%] ▼UIL 4Y [R+3.00%] ▼OMNI 5Y [7.15%] ▼LUX CB [9%] ▼UBP 5Y [R+1.20%] ▼MCB 10Y [R+1.35%] ▼SBM 10Y [R+1.35%] ▼MUA 10Y [R+1.85%] ▼

Fixed Income Instruments

Moody's Credit Rating: Baa1

Overnight [% p.a.]1 Week [% p.a.]


7.18%

Fair Val<15-May-16

12.0%

39.4712.69

Redemption

173.00

31-Dec-17

312.00

5.47%

5.11%

31-Dec-15

10.70%

4.62%

08-Aug-23

3.42%

5.85%

16-Aug-17

-1.54%

Investment Outlook

39.05

YTM Week Ended

-122 6.41%

6.0% 23

-18

Fair Val

23-Oct-2015

Change [bps]VWAP Val.@ Par16-Oct

-1.97%

16-Dec-15

-223

PLIBOR

1.49

16-Oct-2015

119.15

113.7610-Mar-24

109.19

6.39%

6.86%

6.00% 113.49

31-Oct-18

▼1 Week

24-Mar-16

Setmt

6.85%

6.72%

109.68

1.19

6.78% -8.28%

Rs100 on Wind-Up

17-Jan-16

Rs10 on Wind-Up

35 43

-6.29% 101.45

312.00

7.20%

16-Oct

0.0

31-Dec-15

10-Mar-16 5.75%

08-Nov-15

Change

112.32

101.67

23-Oct

Pref ShareLCP

6.30%

0.0

YTD

Rs40 ≥01-Dec-15

DYYoY

30-Mar-15

0.1-18 23.45

DY Wk EndedNextDividend 23-Oct

YTM

<15-May-16

291.97<15-May-16

10.606.00%

3.46%

6.23%7.18%

20.0%

Debenture23-Oct

NextCoupon

173.007.0%

23.506.43%

5.40%

8.0% 116.79

5.62%

17-Jan-16

@ Par

1.76%

3.25%

4.62%

17.52

YTM @ FV

3.73%

1.52▼

3.69%

6.62%

6.00%

0.1

5.11%<15-May-16

105 92

31-Jan-16

102.71

106.92

5.20%

102.62

5.45%

102.51 104.31

YTD in bps

-228

5.19%

39.00

YTD

Week Ended

23-Oct-2015

24-Sep-24

Maturity

24Rs100 on Wind-Up

-66.5%-59.9%

1.15 -3.36%

105.27

3.78% 101.815.75%

6.38%

<15-May-16

5.63% 100.80

10.60 0.1 Rs11.99 ≥31-Jan-18

0

1

2

3

4

Inte

rest

Rat

e [%

]

PLIBOR 1-Day PLIBOR 1-Wk Tbill 91-Day

3.2

5.0

6.0 6.9

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

0 5 10 15

Sove

reig

n Yi

elds

[%

]

Instrument Maturity [Yrs]

Poly. (Previous)

Power (Current)Current

Prev. Yr

545 395

10,158 181 -43 1 54

UIL 4Y OMNI 5Y LUX CB UBP 5Y MCB 10Y SBM 10Y MUA 10Y

~8,000

9

ETFs & Commodities

L HNewGOLD [Rs/coz]▼Gold [Rs/coz] ▲NewPLAT [Rs/coz] ▲Plat. [Rs/coz] ▲Sugar [Rs/t] ▲B.Crude [Rs/L] ▼S&P GIVI SA Top 50 ▼*where coz ≡ centi troy ounce, i.e. ~0.3g; t ≡ tonne = 1,000kg; L ≡ Litre = 100cm 3

Forex Rates

L HUSD / MUREUR / MURGBP / MURZAR / MURAUD / MURJPY / MUR*Weight of currency in trade basket used to compute an MUR index (MURX)


27% 41.00

30.39

Change

26.35 -0.3%-1.36%2.77

0.54%40.25

2.7355.726%

7%

Currency

-1.84%36.02

0.03%

—

▼

Wt*

136.32

-5.9%

-0.4%

-2.6%

3.2%36.21

23-Oct12.8%

137.30

55.79

16-Oct

1.0%

-0.71%

▼26.35

57% ▲▼

1.78%423.63

YTD—

LCP

4.91%-4.9%11.3611.00

11,695 11,148

368.23

414.657.3%

Val.

Investment Outlook

359.27

-3.21%

367.33 -9.4%

—

13.1%

—-5.8%

-0.52%23-Oct VWAP

-9.3%

—52-Wk—Wk Ended

1 Wk YoY381.20

424.82412.50

16-Oct

434.25

9.0%

1.7%

1.7%

52 Wks

10.2%0.28%

—

11.7%

— 52Wk YTD

▲ 0.13%

-0.6%

3% ▲

2.24%—

-36.1%

23-Oct-2015

7.6%

ETF & Commodity

Change

361.79

9.8%

Week Ended

-6.0%30.17 -0.72%0% 11.5%

147.10

-6.0%

14.2%1 Wk

-21

-14

-7

0

7

Inde

x =

100

on 3

0-Se

p-20

12

USD EUR GBP

Elections

90

95

100

105

110

115

Inde

x =

100

on 3

0-Se

p-14

NewGold [Rs]Gold [$]

65

75

85

95

105

Inde

x =

100

on 3

0-Se

p-14

NewPlat [Rs]

Plat [$]40

55

70

85

100

Inde

x =

100

on 3

0-Se

p-14

Sugar [$] Crude [$]

10

Forex Market Watch

*where USDX is the USD Dollar index and MURX is an MUR index computed by AXYS against five peers using the trade basket

Net BoM purchases on FX Market


During the week ended Oct 23rd 2015, the Bank of Mauritius did not intervene on the domestic foreign exchange market.

23-Oct-2015Investment Outlook

0

275

550

825

1,100

99

103

107

111

115

BoM FX purchases [Rs M

] Inde

x =

100

on 3

0-Ju

n-14

BoM

MURX

USDX

Elections BBCL License

revoked

6.71

8.91

11.92

7.18

10.37 11.55

3.80

14.89

14.57

7.5

10.2

15.7

22.1

24.9

11.5

31

29

30 31 31

35

40 40 39

41 41

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

USD bought [Rs bn] EUR bought [Rs bn]

USD VWAP [Rs] EUR VWAP [Rs]

11

SEM Listed Fund Net Asset Values

Africa Sustainability FundBayport Management LtdColina Holdings LtdFidelis Opportunity Fund PCC - Focus Cell 2Global Diversified Fund PCC - Cell No. 1Global Windsor Capital Fund LtdNovare Africa Fund PCCNinetyEast Timaeus Capital Fund PCC - Cell AP.O.L.I.C.Y. LtdRSJ Prop, PCCTriangle Real Estate India Fund LLCUniversal Golden FundAfrAsia Capital Management Ltd

– ACM India Focus Fund– ACM Aussie Ltd– ACM European Ltd– AfrAsia Special Opportunities Fund – AfrAsia Special Opportunities Fund

AIGO Holdings PCC– AIGO UK Residential Property Fund– AIGO Commercial Property Fund– AIGO Natural Resources Fund

Global Investment Opportunities Fund Ltd– Kotak Indian Growth Fund (Class A)– Kotak Indian Mid-Cap Fund (Class C)– Kotak Liquid Fund (Class I)

Imara– Imara African Opportunities Fund Ltd– Imara Global Fund Ltd

IPRO LtdIPRO Growth Fund LtdIPRO African Market Leaders Fund Ltd

Kotak Investment Opportunities Fund Ltd (KIOFL) Class D Shares– Kotak Indian Infrastructure & Realty Fund (Series 1)– Kotak Indian Infrastructure & Realty Fund (Series 2)

*NAV provided every Friday. AXYS uses the NAV value closest to month's end

Select Abbreviations

Disclaimer


-2.2%4.29

139.63

$

▼

Rs

£

-2.4%

—

5.56

AXYS Stockbroking Ltd has issued this document without consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individualrecipient. AXYS Stockbroking Ltd will not be under any liability for loss or damage of any kind whatsoever arising in connection with the contents of thisdocument. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment.This document has been based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but which have not been independently verified. AXYSStockbroking Ltd makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. AXYSStockbroking Ltd is a member of the Stock Exchange of Mauritius and is licensed by the Financial Services Commission.

$

$▼

1,085

Month Ended

569.79

14.6626.27

81.29

0.8%$€ 451.70

833.20

6.9%

£

68.16

1.2%

130.0%

$

▲

0.0%0.0%

99.5599.59—

£

$ 0.936.90 -18.5%0.93

425.65831.28

▬

105.0%

1.3%

644.5%

$

▼

▼ -0.2%

1,941R (ZAR)

2.001.54

$

398.85

-32.6%

1.33

6.1%

1.005.80

Change

7788.46

0.0%0.3% -10.8%

1,100 -10.5%

YTD

0.93

-21.0%-2.4%$

▲

9.81

1.3%8,339

27.43

78.40

2.7%

$

$

▼▼

1,885

15.36

1.49

▲

2.06

▼ -3.4%

1.00

-16.3%

72.07

$

99.20▲

182.25

1.22

5.60

-3.6%

1,057

-4.0%

6.7%

▲3.8%

27%

67.39832.55

98.89

182.71182.69

2.20▼

1.20

23-Oct-2015

Aug-15 Sep-15838

▬8,339

1.00

-0.1%99.47

Investment Outlook

Sectors:FIN = Financial; TL = Travel & Leisure; MSCH = Multi-Sector Conglomerates & Holdings; CONS = Consumer Staples; COND = Consumer Discretionary; MAT =Materials; IND = Industrials; HLTH = Health; COMM = Communications; PROP = Property; INVH = Investment Holdings; UT = Utilities; GOV = Public Sector;OTH =Other.

1.9%

Jul-15Official Market

3.92▲4.19

133.09 128.57

4.27$1.8%3.99

$

27.74 25.8814.64

▼

—10.71

▼

-0.8%28.20

81.68

1.8%483.32

£

-26.7%

-1.1%

▼

▲1,918

-2.9%

526.30

230.9398.92

1.65 -3.0%$ (AUD)

€

760

-0.7%

112.8%

559.83

£ -0.3%246.51

-2.1%

—

0.0%

$

▲

$

▼

▼

612.18

-2.0%$▼

▲

▲

4.59

-3.2%

0.3%

0.0%

▲

-1.5%-0.1%

8.8%

$

▲

▼

—

169.77

481.96

-12.5%

27.20

-2.3%

MtoM

Rs

12

investment outlook - axys group · investment outlook . ... swan retreated further ... which will...

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