ipsos smx understanding category trends in the age of the ... · seeking a way to project future...

© 2017 Ipsos 1

Understanding Category Trends in the Age of the ConsumerEMILY SOBOL, VP, SOCIAL INTELLIGENCE, NA

IPSOS SMX

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© 2017 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

© 2017 Ipsos 2

Thanks for Joining Today

VP, Social IntelligenceIpsos SMX

Emily Sobol

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Key Challenges in Trend Research

Too many trends to followHard to identify what is most relevant

Trends are too genericNeed them to be more specific to our business

Hard to projectSeeking a way to project future trend growth and impact

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Over the last few years, we developed Trend Radar to address these challenges

Based on a simple idea - utilize the democratic and Darwinian principles of the web - where resonant ideas grow and irrelevance disappears. Search is an expression of intention, conversation and shares an expression of affinity. Trend Radar utilizes this ecosystem to identify, explore, validate and provide foresight into trends in the category.

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In the Next 25 Minutes…

What Trend Radar Delivers

Entry Points and Examples

Research Applications & Case Studies

Q & A

?

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WHAT TREND RADAR DELIVERS

A Consumer-Centric Approach• Trend driver framework to uncover

motivations

• Rich, contextual insights to answer the “why”

• Authentic learning on how consumers echo trends

• Trend evolution benchmarking for foresight into future trend impact

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THE MODEL

A Consumer-Driven World

SEARCH

SOCIAL

BEHAVIORAL

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Search & Social Data GatheringMETHODOLOGY

1. HISTORICAL DATA 3. PLOTTING2. DATA INDEX

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TRENDSCOUTING

Identification of the category landscape to identify the relevant macro and micro

trends using multiple sources and approaches …

TRENDFORESIGHT

Qualitative immersion to derive the “why” behind

the “what”….

SOCIAL

SEARCH

Three Step Approach

TRENDVALIDATION

SOCIAL

SEARCH

Tracing the evolution of the identified trend in search and social data

with years of data history to develop….

PROCESS

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TREND TRACKING LIFECYCLETrend Scouting

Build a query that encompasses a category

Leverage advanced text analytics to explore data to scout changes over time

Identify things of interest to drill into

NON-ORGANIC YOGURT

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10

20

30

40

50

60

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Tracing and Validating

SOCIAL INDEX(AVG. BUZZ OVER TIME)

TREND TRACKING LIFECYCLE

SEARCH INDEX(AVG. SEARCH OVER TIME)

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Clear Stories EmergeTREND TRACKING LIFECYCLE

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20

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40

50

60

10 20 30 40 50 60 70


DRY SHAMPOO

ARGAN OILCOCONUT OIL

SILICONE FREE SHAMPOO

FOAMING SHAMPOO

BAKING SODA

AVOCADO

SULFATE FREE SHAMPOO

DIYCOND.

FOAM.COND.

DIYSHAMPOO

DRY CONDITIONERBLACK OIL

SILICONE FREE CONDITIONER

PRIORITY

WATCH

INVESTIGATE


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DEEP TREAT.DAMAGE

CURLYFRESHNESS

14%

8%

7%

7%

TOPIC EVOLUTION USAGE & APPLICATION MOTIVES

ASSOCIATED TOPICS APPLICATION BARRIERS

R² = 0.9336

R² = 0.7333

2013 2014 2015 2016

► LEAVE-IN TREATMENTCoconut oil is applied to hair before going to bed as an overnight treatment once a week. It is also used mixed with other hair care products: shampoos and conditioners to given an extra boost of vitamins and minerals to hair.

► PRE-POOCoconut oil is used as a pre-wash treatment as it nourishes hair and restores natural hair oils before shampooing. It is often used as a leave-on mask and requires at least 1 hour to be absorbed. For this reason using coconut oil is considered as a beauty treatment.

► JUST ON LENGTHS It should not be applied on the scalp, just the just lengths as it needs to penetrate the hair shaft and moisturize

► RESCUE FOR DAMAGED HAIRIt works like a deep remedy for very damaged hair that are naturally dry or has been over-processed, heat damaged, or went under drastic colour changing .

► STRENGHTENS BUT SOFTENSCoconut oil is as an all-natural, multi-tasking hair care product. Highly rich in vitamins, minerals and other nutrients, it is often used to nourish hair. It grows hair stronger and thicker, but leaving a soft and shiny touch:

► ANTI FRIZZ It works wonder for curly and African-American haired women for its anti-frizz conditioning – condition mostly common to this target of women:

► Often causes crunchy ends when too much oil is poured to hair

► Due to its oily nature, it is hard to wash out, too heavy and leaves knots

► Often substituted by other oils which are less ‘heavy’ : Olive oil, Sweet almond oil, Argan oil, Jojoba oil, Jamaican castor oil, Moroccan oil, Rosemary oil, Tea trea oil

COCONUT OIL

Social

Search

Declining RisingStagnant

Trend Validation

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TREND TRACKING LIFECYCLEMultiple Entry Points

TREND SCOUTING

TRENDVALIDATION

TRENDFORESIGHT

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TREND TRACKING LIFECYLETrend Foresight

INTELLIGENCE HUB

SOCIAL

SEARCH

BEHAVIORAL

SALES

CLIENT DATA

CLIENT DATA

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TREND TRACKING LIFECYLETrend Foresight – Building Category Benchmarks

ARGAN OIL

Search

Social

Min

Max

Avg

15%

21%

17%

7%

97%

40%

Declining Stagnant Rising

2016201520142013

ACAI BERRY

Search

Social

Min

Max

Avg

15%

19%

17%

6%

54%

41%


2016201520142013

GINGER

SearchSocial

Min

Max

Avg

12%

20%

15%

3%

7%

5%


2016201520142013

COCONUT OIL

Search

Social

Min

Max

Avg

47%

90%

45%

21%

100%

41%

2016201520142013


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BENEFITS OF TRACKING TRENDS

COMMUNICATIONSInforming content marketing, digital

activation, and influencer marketing

02MARKET

UNDERSTANDINGStaying ahead of competitors and finding growth

opportunities faster

03R&D and FEI

Generating insights about new behaviors,

frustrations, and preferences

01Research Applications

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CASE STUDYR&D and Front End Innovation

10

20

30

40

50

60

10 20 30 40 50 60 70


DRY SHAMPOO

ARGAN OILCOCONUT OIL

SILICONE FREE SHAMPOO

FOAMING SHAMPOO

BAKING SODA

AVOCADO

SULFATE FREE SHAMPOO

DIYCOND.

FOAM.COND.

DIYSHAMPOO

DRY CONDITIONER

BLACK OIL

SILICONE FREE CONDITIONER


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CASE STUDYCommunications

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

“Almond Milk”(RSM: 71, 48)

“Coconut Milk”(RSM: 65, 28)

“Plant Based”(RSM: 18, 54)

“Plant Based Milk”(RSM: 18, 54)

SOCI

AL IN

DEX

(AVG

. BU

ZZ O

VER

TIM

E)

SEARCH INDEX (AVG. SEARCH OVER TIME)

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20

30

10 20 30 40 50 60

A

B

C

D

B

GH

IJ

KL

MO

PQ

S

T

V

W

X

CASE STUDYMarket Understanding


SOCI

AL IN

DEX

(AVG

. BU

ZZ O

VER

TIM

E)

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Monthly Conversation Volume

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Total Autonomous Conversations Expon. (Total Autonomous Conversations)

Conversation peaked in October 2016 when Elon Musk announced that all Tesla vehicles produced from now on will have full self driving hardware.

Autonomous conversation in 2017 is 1488% higher than in 2012

Autonomous Discussion Skyrocketed Starting in 2015 and Continues to Climb

CASE STUDY

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/19/all-tesla-vehicles-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware.html

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Autonomous Vehicles

Ride Sharing

Car Sharing

Autonomous Vehicles

Ride Sharing

Car Sharing

Autonomous Vehicles

Ride Sharing

Car Sharing

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

1 Year Index 3 Year Index 5 Year IndexSOCIAL INDEX(AVG. BUZZ OVER TIME)


Narrowing in on the DiscussionCASE STUDY

Isolate activity over the entire time period (5-years) vs. and interim period of 3-years and finally, the most recent 12 months to determine which segments are approaching critical attention.

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• The introduction of Uber’s driverless car program in Pittsburgh, PA starting in September of 2016 set the stage for their prominent place in the AV discussion and contributed to their 31% share of voice.

• Tesla consistently generates the most excitement among autonomous OEMs due to its outspoken leader, Elon Musk. Musk’s announcement that Tesla would start building every car with self driving hardware (i.e. Autopilot) gained heavy traction in consumer conversations in October 2016, contributing to a 25% share.

• Google’s* 18% is largely owed to the renaming of its self driving car project to “Waymo” in December 2016.

• Lyft, along with others, have some catching up to do regarding share of mentions in this emerging market. However, it is worth noting that with increased spotlight comes greater scrutiny; this is where companies can learn from Uber and Tesla’s strategy and do their best to avoid overt or potentially negative political connections.

Analysis timeframe: August 14, 2016 – August 14, 2017.

Where Tech, Ride Share and OEMs ConvergeCASE STUDY

18%

8%

31%

25% 5%

5%

4%

1%

2%

ipsos smx understanding category trends in the age of the ... · seeking a way to project future...

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