Alain Fiocco Sr. Director, IPv6 High Impact Project

afiocco@cisco.com

IPv6: The New Internet Protocol past, today, tomorrow

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Content

User

ISP

Device

“A deadlock, stalemate, impasse; a roughly equal (frequently unsatisfactory) outcome to a conflict in which there is no clear winner or loser,”

Where is the content? Too much pain &

no gain

Where is the network?

Do I pay less ? Any new

applications?

NAT’s are good. RFC1918 gives me security, and IPv4 address runout is my ISP’s problem.

The network is not ready, users don’t care and I don’t

want to risk a poor end-user experience today for potential gains tomorrow

Enterprise

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RIPE ARIN AFRINIC LACNIC

IANA

Mean while … IPv4 run-out is very real

http://ipv6.he.net/statistics/

APNIC

Last /8 policy

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The world will run out of IPv4 addresses .

By 2016 there will be 7.5 billion people...

...and 19 billion fixed and mobile-connected devices (up from 10 billion in 2011) .

M o b i l e d e v i c e s a r e growing faster than the mobile subscribers that use them. 2.5 devices / capita in 2016 up from 1.5 in 2010

Globally 8 billion -40% of all fixed and mobile networked devices- will be IPv6-capable in 2016, up from 1 billion or 10% in 2011, a CAGR of 49%.

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 5

IPv4 exhaust pinch

Users Content

Cloud

CDN

The Network

Supply Demand Delivery

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CGN

Public IPv4

Statefull NAT’s create challenges for Content: Transparency to application, Location, Security for SP: CAPEX/OPEX of CGN due to statefulness

Private IPv4

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!"

#!"

$!!"

$#!"

%!!"

%#!"

!"#$%"$#&'()$&*&

&'()" *+)" &'+,-"./0("/12("

VoD/TV Replay platforms: •  Canalplus : 70 sessions •  Pluzz.fr: 95 sessions •  BBC : 45 sessions •  CNN: 50

Portals/Social •  Facebook: 40 sessions •  Yahoo: 110 sessions •  Bing: 30 •  G+: 30 •  Wikipedia: 50 •  Twitter : 20

Peer to Peer: •  BitTorent : 700

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Web 2.0 (ex: AJAX) Application Behavior Under Constrained NAT Resources

20 NAT Sessions 15 NAT Sessions 10 NAT Sessions 30 NAT Sessions times millions of users

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2011 2013 2015

CGN Only

2011 2013 2015

6rd + CGN

- CGN44 Capex and Opex is growing driven by Subcribers growth, AND application complexity (session per user)

- CGN44 Cost is capped as Content switches to IPv6. - 6rd cost does not increase much as a function of # IPv6 users, AND Application complexity is transparent

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CGN

IPv4

IPv6

DNS <AAAA, A>

IPv6 for growth, IPv4 for legacy with CGN: a necessary Evil Call to action: enable IPv6 content

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Users Content

Cloud

CDN The

Network AT&T Verizon Mobile Comcast TWC Free RCS&RDS XS4ALL KDDI Softbank Many to come in 2013

Google Facebook Yahoo Bing Wikipedia Netflix Amazon 1000’s Enterprises Public Agencies

Amazon Rackspace OVH Akamai Limelight

http://www.worldipv6launch.org/participants

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6lab.cisco.com/stats

•  ~80 % of Internet Core transit (top 5% AS’s) is IPv6 enabled

•  > 35% of global Internet content/Web pages are reachable over IPv6

•  >1% of Internet users have IPv6 Great disparities across countries

Jim Barksdale, former Netscape CEO

Cisco Confidential 13 © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

6lab.cisco.com/stats

Cisco Confidential 14 © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

6lab.cisco.com/stats

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What have you enabled IPv6 on today ?

Winston Churchill