Ireland’s Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emission Inventories 1990-2016

Royal Irish Academy

31st May 2018

Overview - GHG

Highlights

Trends in GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2016

Effort Sharing Decision compliance

Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Sources

Energy Industries

Residential

Manufacturing Combustion

Commercial Services

Public Services

Transport

Industrial Processes

F-Gases

Agriculture

Waste

Gases

CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs,

SF6, NF3

Highlights (1)

Total GHG emissions in 2016 are 61.55 Mt CO2eq, up 2.12 Mt CO2eq, 3.6% increase

Greenhouse gas emissions increased in all sectors: Energy Industries, Residential,

Commercial Services, Public Services, Transport, Industrial Processes, F-Gases,

Agriculture sectors, Waste sectors and Manufacturing Combustion

In 2016, emissions in the European Union’s Emissions Trading Sector (ETS) sector

increased by 5.4% or 0.91 Mt CO2eq and non-ETS emissions increased by 2.8% or 1.21

Mt CO2eq

Energy Industries emissions are up 0.71 Mt CO2eq a 6.0% increase, reflecting a 27.7%

increase in natural gas use. Also wind and hydro renewables for electricity generation

reduced by 6.5% and 15.6% in 2016

Transport emissions are up 0.48 Mt CO2eq a 4.1% increase. This is the fourth successive

year of increases, with gasoline use declining by 6.7% and increases in diesel of 8.0% and

decrease in biofuels use of 8.0%

Agriculture emissions increased by 2.7% or 0.53 Mt CO2eq in 2016. Dairy cow numbers

increased by 6.2% with a 4.0% increase in milk production

Highlights (2)

Industrial Processes emissions are up 7.1% or 0.14 Mt CO2eq, mainly from

increased cement production

Residential emissions are almost unchanged, up 0.01 Mt CO2eq a 0.1%

increase, with 2.6% fewer degree days than 2015. Kerosene use increased by

5.2% and natural gas by 1.4%, with a 13.3% reduction in coal use

Commercial Services and Public Services both showed increases of 2.5% and

2.7% respectively

Emissions from F-Gases increased by 11.0% in 2016

Emissions from the Manufacturing Combustion sector increased by 0.07 Mt

CO2eq or 1.6% in 2016

Waste emissions increased by 0.9% or 0.01Mt CO2eq in 2016

Ireland is compliant with its annual emission allocations in 2013, 2014 and

2015, however, these figures indicate that Ireland exceeds its 2016 annual limit

GHG emissions 1990-2016

Overall emissions in 2016 are 10.9% above 1990 levels

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

kt

CO

2eq

uiv

ale

nt

Energy Industries Residential Manufacturing Combustion Commercial Services Public Services

Transport Industrial Processes F-Gases Agriculture Waste

+7.4%

further reduction by 15.0%reduction by 4.6%Emissions increased by 27.1%

Energy Industries GHG emissions 1990-2016

Overall emissions in 2016 are 9.8 % above 1990 levels

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

20.00

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mt

CO

2e

q

Public electricity and heat production Petroleum refining Solid fuels and other energy industries Fugitive emissions

17.5 Mt

+12%

Residential GHG emissions 1990-2016

0.6%

-11.2%-0.8%

-2.6% -0.7%1.9%

-5.2%

8.2%-5.4% 1.3%

4.2%-1.1%

2.3%2.6%

4.0%-1.6%

-3.2%

8.6%-0.7%

4.5%

-15.3%

-5.7%2.6%

-10.2%5.1% 0.1%

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mt

CO

2eq

Solid Fuels Peat Liquid Fuels Gaseous Fuels Biomass Fuels

Emissions in 2016 are 19.6% below 1990 levels

Industrial Processes 1990-2016

34.1%33.5%32.5%33.5%

35.2%36.3%39.0%

40.7%39.1%41.8%

50.4%54.0%62.5%

94.0%94.1%92.5%93.8%93.4%

93.2%

89.8%88.9%

87.8%89.4%88.3%

90.8%91.4%

91.7%

60.7%

61.2%62.1%60.9%

59.7%58.7%55.5%

54.5%55.9%53.2%

43.9%42.0%

33.1%

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mt

CO

2eq

Mineral industry Chemical industry Metal industry Non-energy products from fuels and solvent use Other product manufacture and use

Overall emissions in 2016 are 34.5% below 1990 levels

F-Gases 1990-2016

Overall emissions in 2016 are ~ 35 times higher than 1990 levels

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mt

CO

2eq

HFCs PFCs SF6 NF3

Transport GHG emissions 1990-2016

Overall transport emissions in 2016 are 139% above 1990 levels

3.5% 8.1% -0.4%4.4%

5.0%

16.8%5.2%

17.5%

7.7%

10.7%

4.8%1.7% 1.8%

6.2%

5.6%

5.2%4.2%

-5.1%

-8.9%

-7.3%

-2.7% -3.4%2.1% 2.5%

4.1%3.7%

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mt

CO

2eq

Road Transport Railways Domestic Aviation Domestic Navigation Other Transportation

Agriculture GHG emissions 1990-2016

Overall emissions in 2016 are 3.5% below 1990 levels

0.5% -0.2%0.8% 0.8%

3.1% 0.6%0.3%

2.1%-1.6%

-4.4% -1.6%-1.7% 1.3%

-1.5% -1.2% -2.1%-1.7%

-1.0% -2.2% 0.5%-3.5%

2.1%

4.6% -1.1% 1.5% 2.7%

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mt

CO

2eq

Enteric fermentation Manure management Agricultural soils Liming Urea application Agriculture/Forestry fuel combustion Fishing

21.95 Mt

19.6 Mt

Waste GHG emissions 1990-2016

Overall emissions in 2016 are 39.3 % below 1990 levels

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mt

CO

2eq

Landfills Biological treatment of solid waste Incineration and open burning of waste Wastewater treatment and discharge

Effort Sharing Decision compliance 2013-2020

46.89245.761

44.63043.499

40.88539.807

38.72937.651

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mt

CO

2e

q

Non ETS Emissions ETS Emissions EU AEAs 2013-2020

4.685 + 4.098 + 1.593 + (- 0.299) = 10.376 Mt CO2

2013 + 2014 +2015 + 2016

Overview – Air pollutants

Air pollutants – what do we report

Trends in air pollutants

National Emissions Ceilings Directive

Air pollutants – what do we reprt

Air Pollutant Inventories (15th February)

• Main pollutants; NOx, SO2, NMVOC, NH3 and CO

• Heavy metals; Pb, Cd, Hg (priority) As, Cr, Cu, Ni, Se and

Zn (additional)

• Persistent Organic Pollutants; Dioxins (PCDD/PCDF),

PAHs, HCB and PCBs

• Particulate matter; TSP, PM10, PM2.5 and BC (if available)

• Informative Inventory Report (15th March annually)

• National gridded data (x-2) every four years (EMEP 0.1 *

0.1 degree grid) (1st May 2017)

• LPS data (x-2) every four years (1st May 2017)

Trends in NOx

66.186

40.231

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

kilo

ton

nes N

Ox

Power Stations Industrial Residential & CommercialAgriculture/Forestry/Fishing Transport AgricultureOther 2020 Reduction commitment 2030 Reduction commitmentNEC 2010 Target

Trends in SO2

25.117

10.764

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

kilo

ton

nes S

O2

Power Stations Industrial Residential & CommercialAgriculture/Forestry/Fishing Transport Other2020 Reduction commitment 2030 Reduction commitment NEC 2010 Target

Trends in NMVOC

56.76751.469

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

kilo

ton

nes N

MV

OC

Power Stations Industrial Residential & CommercialAgriculture/Forestry/Fishing Transport AgricultureFugitive and Solvents Food and beverages Industry Other2020 Reduction commitment 2030 Reduction commitment NEC 2010 Target

Trends in NH3

112.161107.629

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

kilo

ton

nes N

H3

Dairy Cattle Other Cattle Other LivestockDirect Soils N-excreted on Pasture Residential & CommercialRoad Transport Other 2020 Reduction commitment2030 Reduction commitment NEC 2010 Target

Trends in PM2.5

18.720

13.469

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

kilo

ton

nes P

M2.5

Power Stations Industrial Residential & CommercialAgriculture/Forestry/Fishing Transport AgricultureOther 2020 Reduction commitment 2030 Reduction commitment

National Emission Ceilings Directive (2016/2284)

Commitments under Directive 2001/81/EC apply until 31/12/2019

SO2 42 kilotonnes

NOx 65 kilotonnes

NH3 116 kilotonnes

NMVOC 55 kilotonnes

New targets for SO2, NOx NH3, NMVOC and PM2.5 applicable from

2020 to 2029 and 2030 onwards based on 2005 base

National Emission Ceilings Directive (2016/2284)

kilotonnesArticle 21(1) (a)

Article 4(1) and Annex II

New reduction

commitments

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2030

National Total SO2 26.34 24.84 23.37 23.51 16.89 15.00 13.77 25.12 10.76

NEC ceiling 2010-2019 42.00 42.00 42.00 42.00 42.00 42.00 42.00 -65% -85%

National Total NOx 113.32 101.35 104.72 105.43 104.14 104.39 107.30 66.19 40.23

NEC ceiling 2010-2019 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 -49% -69%

National Total NMVOC 109.24 106.51 107.90 110.34 106.11 106.40 108.25 56.77 51.47

NEC ceiling 2010-2019 55.00 55.00 55.00 55.00 55.00 55.00 55.00 -25% -32%

National Total NH3 108.23 104.38 106.29 107.83 108.31 111.12 116.70 112.16 107.63

NEC ceiling 2010-2019 116.00 116.00 116.00 116.00 116.00 116.00 116.00 -1% -5%

National Total PM2.5 18.99 16.80 16.52 16.77 15.57 15.55 14.94 18.73 13.47

NEC ceiling 2010-2019 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA -18% -41%

National Emission Ceilings Directive (2016/2284)

kilotonnes

Article 21(1) (a)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

National Total NOx 113.32 101.35 104.72 105.43 104.14 104.39 107.30

Adjusted NOx under Article 5(1) 67.69 58.98 60.95 58.12 57.26 58.34 59.47

NEC ceiling 2010-2019 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00

National Total NMVOC 109.24 106.501 107.90 110.34 106.11 106.40 108.25

Adjusted NMVOC under Article 5(1) 55.30 51.76 50.42 50.45 48.93 47.86 46.84

NEC ceiling 2010-2019 55.00 55.00 55.00 55.00 55.00 55.00 55.00

Additional Information

www.epa.ie

http://www.epa.ie/climate/emissionsinventoriesandprojections/nati

onalemissionsinventories/

http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/air/airemissions/ghgemissions/

http://www.epa.ie/climate/emissionsinventoriesandprojections/nati

onalemissionsinventories/transboundarygasemissions/

GHG emissions/capita Ireland 1990-2016

3,506

4,762

15.8 15.915.7 15.8

16.116.4

16.917.1

17.6 17.718.0

18.3

17.417.2

16.8 16.8

16.2

15.5

15.0

13.513.4

12.4 12.5 12.5 12.4

12.8 12.9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

4400

4600

4800

5000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

To

nn

e o

f G

HG

/ca

pit

a

Po

pu

lati

on

(00

0s

)

Population Tonne of GHG/capita

+35.8%

GHG per capita emissions are 18% lower than in 1990

GHG emissions/capita for all EU/EEA Member

states in 2015 (source EEA)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

To

nn

es

pe

r c

ap

ita

CO2 CH4 N2O F-Gases

12.9

Effort Sharing Decision compliance 2013-2020

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

A

Total greenhouse gas emissions without

LULUCF1 57,903.4 57,626.0 59,878.2 61,545.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 kt CO2eq

B NF3 emissions 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 kt CO2eq

C

Total greenhouse gas emissions without

LULUCF and without NF3 emissions 57,902.5 57,625.1 59,877.3 61,544.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 kt CO2eq

D

Total verified emissions from stationary

installations under Directive 2003/87/EC2 15,685.7 15,952.7 16,829.7 17,737.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 kt CO2eq

E CO2 emissions from 1.A.3.A civil aviation 10.0 9.4 10.4 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 kt CO2eq

F Total ESD emissions (= C-D-E) 42,206.8 41,663.0 43,037.2 43,798.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 kt CO2eq

G EU ESD Targets 46,891.9 45,760.9 44,629.9 43,498.9 40,885.1 39,807.1 38,729.2 37,651.3 kt CO2eq

Distance to target (= F-G) -4,685.1 -4,097.9 -1,592.7 299.3