Prospects for the African Power Sector

Asami MiketaInternational Energy Workshop, June 19-21, 2012

Cape Town, South Africa

IRENA Membership

Status 13. June, 2012

(96countires)(62 more countries)

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Promote the use of renewable energy to meet increasing global energy needs in the context of Sustainable Development

• Energy security• Decentralized access to energy• Job creation and economic growth• Negative health impacts of fossil fuels and traditional biomass• Reducing GHG emissions

Renewable energy sources supported: Biomass, Geothermal, Hydro, Ocean, Solar, Wind

Mandate

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Synthesising knowledge• Potential assessment (global resource mapping)• Renewable statistics and indicators• Technology briefs• Renewable technology cost assessment

Energy planning• Economic and technical assessment of renewable technology

deployment in an energy system• Capacity building

Promotion of dialogue for renewable deployment • Renewable readiness assessment• Sectoral renewable deployment roadmap• UN’s Sustainable Energy for All

Activities

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Policy database and analysis

Technology development and transfer• Technology standardization

• Patent database

• Project development support

Education and training support

Abu Dhabi Fund for Development

Activities

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Challenges in African power sector Access to Electricity

Sub-Sa

haran Afri

ca

Liberi

a

Rwanda

Sierra

Leone

Malawi

Niger

Congo DR

Tanzan

iaKenya

Leso

tho

Zambia

Togo

Benin

Equato

rial G

uinea

Swazi

land

Maurit

ania

Eritre

a

Gabon

Seneg

al

Nigeria

Sao Tome e

t Prin

cipe

Ghana

South

Africa

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PERC

ENT

PEO

PLE

LACK

ING

ACCE

SS T

O P

OW

ER

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Challenges in African power sectorReliability of power supply

Source: JRC9

Opportunities offered by renewable technologies

• Abundant resource potential for grid-connected system• Cost-competitive off-grid system• Flexible mini-gird system

Power generation in 2008620 TWh

616 kWh per person

Universal access in 20351670 TWh

1100 kWh per person

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Scenarios and Strategies for Africa Project

• Renewable resource potential• Cost development• Differentiated roles of renewable technologies for

centralized and decentralized electricity supply

used as inputs for economic optimization toolsSAPP model / WAPP model

inputs into priority investment decision / policy analysis

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Renewable Energy Technical Potentials

620 TWh generation150 GW capacity (2010)

Geothermal88 TWh/yr (7-15 GW)

Wind*3800 TWh/yr (1750 GW)

Concentrated Solar Power*4720 TWh/yr (2150 GW)

Solar Photovoltaic*6600 TWh/yr (2700 GW)

Hydro1850 TWh/yr (400 GW)

*land availability adjusted Map: BMU, 2009

HydroPV

CSPWind

HydroPV

CSPWind

HydroPV

CSPWind

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Hydro

PV

CSP

Wind

Hydro

PV

CSP

Wind

Geothermal

North

West

Central

East

South

TWh

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WindIn 2010, total installed capacity 1 GWTechnical potential 1750 GW• Egypt 7GW by 2020• Morocco 2GW by 2020• South Africa 8.4 GW by 2030

Investment costsEurope: 1,850-2,100 USD/kWIndia/China: 1,300-1,450 USD/kW

Assumptions for Africa2010: 2,000 USD/kW2030: 1,240-1,400 USD/kW

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Solar PV

In 2010, total installed capacity 64 MW CSP and 7.5 MW Solar PV (utility scale)Technical potential: 2150 GW (CSP) and 2750 GW (Solar PV)

World solar market

Investment cost in Europe:3,600-5,000 USD/kW in 20102,500 USD/kW in 2012

Assumptions for Africa: SPV2010: 3,500 USD/kW2030: 2,200-2,500 USD/kW

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Solar CSP

CSP: 2150 GW technical potential• Sudan 250 MW, South Africa 100 MW• DESERTEC 100 GW by 2050 (400MW CSP and 100 MW SPV in Morocco in 2012)

Parabolic trough collectorsUSD 4600 /kW

6 hr Storage plus 2500-5200 /kW

Solar towerUSD 6300-7500 /kW

15 hr Storage plus 3000/kW Assumptions for Africa:

CSP no storage2010: 4500 USD/kW2030: 2700-3000 USD/kW

With storage2010: 11000 USD2030: 6200-7300 USD

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Large Hydro

• 24GW installed in 2010 • Technical potential: 400GW• Economic potential: 200GW

DRC: Inga III (5GW), Grand Inga Dam (39GW) Ethiopia: Millennium Hydropower project (5.25GW)

1 10 100 1000 100000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000 West

MW

USD/KW

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LCOE: West Africa

Crude oil price: 100 USD/bbl HFO 12.9 USD/GJ, Gas domestic and imported 8.5 and 11 USD/GJ, Coal domestic and imported 2 and 3 USD/GJ 17

T&D costs

• Heavy industry 15 USD/MWh (7% losses)• Urban 50 USD/MWh (15% losses)• Rural 100 USD/MWh (20% losses)

LCOE including TD costs to rural area (120-150 $/MWh additional to LCOE of technologies)

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Decentralized Options• Diesel generator (1,070 USD/kW)• Solar PV (5,000 USD/kW) • Solar PV with buttery (7,000 USD/kW)• Small hydro (4,000 USD/kW)

Source: JRC

Assumptions for Africa in 2030

SPV: 2,600-2,900 USD/kW SPV+battery: 3,600-4,100 USD/kW Small hydro: 3,300-3,600 USD/kW

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Decentralized OptionsLCOE for decentralized options VS grid connected options

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SAPP model16% RE with 15% hydro

→ 35% RE with 19% hydro

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WAPP model22% RE all hydro in 2010

→ 53% RE with 33% hydro

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IRENA’s contributions to the modeling community• Improve the representation of renewable energy in

modeling/scenario work• Narrow the data gasps• Bring the insights from the community to the attention of

the decision makers

You are invited to the IRENA’s special modeling session today at 17:30

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