january 2017 ceri commodity report — natural gas · eri ommodity report – natural gas editorial...

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Relevant Independent Objecve All three, however, appear to be in natural decline. Beginning producon in 1999, SOEPs life expectancy was expected to be 25 years, although this looks to be in doubt. With producon peaking in the early 2000s, it dropped significantly thereaſter, with the excepon of a brief increase in early 2008. 5 Producon decreased from a monthly peak of 518 million m 3 (Mcm), or approximately 18.3 Bcf, in December 2001 to 105 million m 3 (Mcm), or approximately 3.7 Bcf, in November 2016. Exxon announced in 2010 that Sable is winding down, possibly as early as 2017. 6,7 Deep Panuke, on the other hand, began producon in 2013 and was ancipated to have a 13 year producon life. 8 Likewise, producon of the Deep Panuke has been reduced to seasonal in the Fall of 2015, with producon decreasing from 248 million m 3 (Mcm), or approximately 8.8 Bcf, in January 2014 9 to 47 Mcm, or approximately 1.7 Bcf, by November 2016. 10 Producon at McCully is also decreasing. With offshore Nova Scoa producon decreasing, the M&NP will soon be empty. But whose gas will fill the pipeline? Marimes & Northeast Pipeline The Marimes & Northeast Pipeline (M&NP) is a very important piece of energy infrastructure in New Brunswick and Nova Scoa. Figure 2 illustrates the M&NP and the connectedness of the projects to nearby pipelines, as well as other energy-related infrastructure in the Marimes and New England market. The figure also highlights New Brunswicks Canaport LNG facility – Canadas only LNG facility thus far – and the Emera Pipeline that delivers its natural gas from the regasificaon terminal in Saint John to St. Stephen where it connects with the M&NP. January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas Filling the PipelinePaul Kralovic Beginning with the Sable Offshore Energy Project (SOEP), 1 the energy landscape of New Brunswick and Nova Scoa changed with the onset of the laers offshore producon. The project was accompanied by the construcon of the 1,400-kilometer Marime & Northeast Pipeline (M&NP), transporng natural gas from the offshore projects to the New England markets, from Goldboro, Nova Scoa to Dracut, Massachuses. Located approximately 250 kilometers off the coast of Nova Scoa, SOEP and Deep Panuke are connected to the Goldboro gas plant and Point Tupper Fraconaon plant. Figure 1 illustrates natural gas producon in Nova Scoa and New Brunswick, showing producon in all three developments. While Nova Scoas producon is enrely offshore, New Brunswicks gas producon is onshore and is from the McCully Gas Field, located near Sussex in the southeastern part of the province. Figure 1: Offshore Nova Scoa and Onshore New Brunswick Natural Gas Producon (MMcfpd) Source: SOEP, 2 Deep Panuke 3 and the Government of New Brunswick 4 CERI Commodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial Commiee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan Fogwill About CERI The Canadian Energy Research Instute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in 1975. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objecve economic research in energy and related environmental issues. For more informaon about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca or contact us at [email protected].

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Page 1: January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · ERI ommodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial ommittee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan

Relevant • Independent • Objective

All three, however, appear to be in natural decline. Beginning production in 1999, SOEP’s life expectancy was expected to be 25 years, although this looks to be in doubt. With production peaking in the early 2000s, it dropped significantly thereafter, with the exception of a brief increase in early 2008.5 Production decreased from a monthly peak of 518 million m3 (Mcm), or approximately 18.3 Bcf, in December 2001 to 105 million m3 (Mcm), or approximately 3.7 Bcf, in November 2016. Exxon announced in 2010 that Sable is winding down, possibly as early as 2017. 6,7 Deep Panuke, on the other hand, began production in 2013 and was anticipated to have a 13 year production life.8 Likewise, production of the Deep Panuke has been reduced to seasonal in the Fall of 2015, with production decreasing from 248 million m3 (Mcm), or approximately 8.8 Bcf, in January 20149 to 47 Mcm, or approximately 1.7 Bcf, by November 2016.10 Production at McCully is also decreasing. With offshore Nova Scotia production decreasing, the M&NP will soon be empty. But whose gas will fill the pipeline? Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline The Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline (M&NP) is a very important piece of energy infrastructure in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Figure 2 illustrates the M&NP and the connectedness of the projects to nearby pipelines, as well as other energy-related infrastructure in the Maritimes and New England market. The figure also highlights New Brunswick’s Canaport LNG facility – Canada’s only LNG facility thus far – and the Emera Pipeline that delivers its natural gas from the regasification terminal in Saint John to St. Stephen where it connects with the M&NP.

January 2017

CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas

Filling the Pipeline… Paul Kralovic Beginning with the Sable Offshore Energy Project (SOEP),1 the energy landscape of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia changed with the onset of the latter’s offshore production. The project was accompanied by the construction of the 1,400-kilometer Maritime & Northeast Pipeline (M&NP), transporting natural gas from the offshore projects to the New England markets, from Goldboro, Nova Scotia to Dracut, Massachusetts. Located approximately 250 kilometers off the coast of Nova Scotia, SOEP and Deep Panuke are connected to the Goldboro gas plant and Point Tupper Fractionation plant. Figure 1 illustrates natural gas production in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, showing production in all three developments. While Nova Scotia’s production is entirely offshore, New Brunswick’s gas production is onshore and is from the McCully Gas Field, located near Sussex in the southeastern part of the province. Figure 1: Offshore Nova Scotia and Onshore New Brunswick Natural Gas Production (MMcfpd)

Source: SOEP,2 Deep Panuke3 and the Government of New Brunswick4

CERI Commodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial Committee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan Fogwill About CERI The Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in 1975. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objective economic research in energy and related environmental issues. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca or contact us at [email protected].

Page 2: January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · ERI ommodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial ommittee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 2

Figure 2: Energy Infrastructure in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick

Source: Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline11

The 550 MMcfpd M&NP crosses into the US via St. Stephen and connects with the Portland Natural Gas Transmission System (PNGTS) at Westbrook which terminates in Dracut, Massachusetts. The M&NP is bi-directional; the flow is traditionally north to south, terminating at Dracut, Massachusetts, where it connects with the Algonquin Gas Transmission pipeline (AGT) and the Tennessee Gas Transmission pipelines in the greater Boston area. The capacity of the US-side of the M&NP is 830 MMcfpd.12 Not only providing a critical piece of infrastructure connecting the Maritimes to New England but also to the plethora of pipelines in the US Northeast down to the Gulf of Mexico, the M&NP also features several laterals, serving local markets with natural gas. Impending Supply and Demand Gap Following the construction of the M&NP, natural gas use in the Maritimes more than doubled from 14,556 terajoules in 2004 to 38,719 terajoules in 2013, making it the fastest growing source of energy for the region.13 When the M&NP initially transported natural gas from SOEP in the early 2000s to the New England market, it delivered nearly 100 percent of the gas the project produced. At that time there was virtually no natural gas market in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.14 In 2012, the percentage of natural gas being transported, however, has decreased to approximately 18 percent, with much larger amounts of gas being consumed in the Maritime Provinces, mainly by large industrial users and power generators.15

Figure 3 shows declines in Nova Scotia’s offshore production in the backdrop of demand of natural gas in the two provinces. Figure 3: Nova Scotia and New Brunswick Gas Production and Local Demand (MMcfpd)

Source: CNSOPB,16 Government of New Brunswick17 & NEB18

Between satisfying domestic demand of natural gas in the two provinces and the declines in Nova Scotia’s offshore production, the two Maritime Provinces are on the cusp of a fundamental change; at the heart of that change is the role of the M&NP. With offshore Nova Scotia production decreasing, whose gas will fill the pipeline? The answer is that it could be from two possible sources: a) from the Marcellus and Utica Shale, reversing the flow of the M&NP, delivering gas south to north, and b) from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia onshore resources. The dramatic growth of the Marcellus and the Utica Shales in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and New York are changing the role of natural gas in the US Northeast and have had a profound impact on the New England area, and will likely have an impact on Atlantic Canadian provinces as well. Advances in horizontal drilling, 3-D seismic technology and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) are opening up new resources, previously determined as non-productive or not feasible to produce, particularly in the ability to economically recover natural gas and oil from shale rock. Figure 4 illustrates US shale gas production, including the Marcellus Shale and the underlying Utica Shale.

Deep Panuke and SOEP are

expected to be decommissioned

prior to 2022

Page 3: January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · ERI ommodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial ommittee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 3

Figure 4: Shale Gas Production in the US (Bcfpd)

Source: EIA19

Low cost, abundant gas from the Marcellus and Utica Shales is already changing energy flows in North America, spilling into the US Northeast, US Midwest and into Central Canada, displacing gas traditionally imported from western Canada. With Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approval on January 25, 2017 of the Atlantic Bridge, it would appear that gas from the Marcellus and Utica Shales could well make its way to the Maritimes.20 The project expands the AGT and M&NP’s pipeline systems, better supplying these regions with gas from the Marcellus Shale, expanding the regional infrastructure to carry more gas from New Jersey, north through New England and into the Maritimes. Figure 5 illustrates the US$450 million Atlantic Bridge design.21 The plan includes 6.3 miles of 42-inch pipeline in New York and Connecticut, as well as new and expanded compressors.22 Heading up the Atlantic Bridge project, it is important to note that Spectra (now Enbridge) also owns the AGT as well as majority stake in the M&NP (78 percent).

Figure 5: Shale Gas Production in the US (Bcfpd)

Source: Marcellus Drilling23

It is interesting to note that this is good news for two proposed LNG export facilities in Nova Scotia. Facilities at Goldboro LNG and Pieridae LNG, located at Point Tupper, would likely source natural gas from the US. The second source could be from closer to home – the two Maritime province’s onshore resources. As previously mentioned, the impact of shale gas and tight oil cannot be understated, and is truly global. Representing an increasingly large and growing share of the recoverable resource base, shale gas and tight oil is garnering a lot of interest, not only in the US, but also for many jurisdictions across Canada. Arguably, its largest impacts, however, could be felt in areas that are relatively underexplored, such as the Maritimes. While Nova Scotia estimates its offshore resource potential at more than 8 billion barrels of oil and 120 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas,24 there is a renewed interest in the region’s onshore gas potential, particularly for its unconventional resources. Frederick Brook Shale in New Brunswick and the Horton Bluff Shale in Nova Scotia are certainly garnering interest, despite a moratorium on fracking.

Page 4: January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · ERI ommodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial ommittee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 4

The same technologies and improvements in drilling efficiencies that fuel the shale gas production in Pennsylvania, could be a boon for the region’s oil and gas sector and their respective economies, to export the hydrocarbons or to utilize them for domestic purposes. In-place resource estimates under Corridor Resource’s acreage suggest that there are an estimated 67.3 Tcf of shale gas in-place; estimates were conducted by GLJ & Associates, within the Sussex and Elgin sub-basins.25 In-place gas resources of Horton Bluff, on the other hand, are estimated at between 1726 and 69 Tcf;27 the former was provided by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Advanced Resources International (ARI) while the latter was estimated by Ryder Scott Consultants. With a recovery factor of between 15 or 20 percent, both are respectable reservoirs that could easily satisfy domestic demand, with surpluses for export. While Nova Scotia and New Brunswick have extensive histories in oil and gas exploration and production, dating back to the 1860s and 1859, respectively, they are relatively small players in the Canadian perspective. That could, however, change. Both provinces are without a doubt on the cusp of a fundamental change – a nexus point.

_______________________

CERI is examining the onshore oil and gas resources for the two Atlantic Provinces, including the Frederick Brook Shale and the Horton Bluff. The objective of this project is to detail the possible economic contribution it could make to the economy of those two provinces and to Canada, as well as examining the environmental impacts. Endnotes 1SOEP is composed of six separate gas fields: Venture, South Venture, Thebaud, North Triumph, Glenelg and Alma 2Canada-Nova Scotia Offshore Petroleum Board, Offshore Activity, Production Data, http://www.cnsopb.ns.ca/offshore-activity/production-data 3ibid 4Government of New Brunswick, Energy and Resource Development, Corridor Gas Production Statistics 5National Energy Board, Energy Markets, Market Snapshot: Deep Panuke moves to seasonal production and lowers reserves due to water influx. Released July 29, 2015, https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/mrkt/snpsht/2015/07-04dppnk-eng.html 6CBC website, Exxon-Mobil prepares to decommission Sable gas field, August 8, 2013, http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/exxon-mobil-prepares-to-decommission-sable-gas-field-1.1385087

7The Chronicle Herald website, Sable may start shutting down in 2017, June 28, 2015, http://thechronicleherald.ca/business/1295318-sable-may-start-shutting-down-in-2017 8Canada-Nova Scotia Offshore Petroleum Board website, Offshore Activity: Deep Panuke, http://www.cnsopb.ns.ca/offshore-activity/offshore-projects/deep-panuke 9Canada-Nova Scotia Offshore Petroleum Board website, Weekly Operations Report, February 20, 2014, http://www.cnsopb.ns.ca/sites/default/files/pdfs/feb2014.pdf 10Canada-Nova Scotia Offshore Petroleum Board website, Weekly Operations Report, March 17, 2016, http://www.cnsopb.ns.ca/sites/default/files/pdfs/mar1716.pdf 11Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline, Map, http://mnpp.com/us/sites/default/files/map/mnp_system_map.jpg 12Spectra Energy website, US Pipeline, Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline, http://www.spectraenergy.com/Operations/US-Natural-Gas-Operations/US-Pipelines/Maritimes-Northeast-Pipeline/ 13New Brunswick and Nova Scotia Natural Gas Supply and Demand Report 2015-2025, prepared by Jupia Consultants, Atlantica Centre for Energy, Spring 2015, pp. 10 14ibid, pp. 6 15ibid 16CNSOPB Offshore Activity, Production Data, http://www.cnsopb.ns.ca/offshore-activity/production-data 17Government of New Brunswick, Energy and Resource Development, Corridor Gas Production Statistics 18NEB website, Canada’s Energy Future 2016: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040, January 2016 Appendices, https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/ftr/index-eng.html 19EIA website, Energy Explained, US Shale Gas Production, https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=natural_gas_where#shaledata 20Spectra’s Atlantic Bridge Gets FERC OK to Begin Construction, January 25, 2017, Jeremiah Shelor, http://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/109176-spectras-atlantic-bridge-gets-ferc-ok-to-begin-construction 21ibid 22Feds approve Atlantic Bridge natural gas project with compressor station in Massachusetts, http://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2017/01/feds_approve_atlantic_bridge_n.html ibid 23Marcellus Drilling website, Critical Project for Canadian LNG Exports Get Favorable FERC Review, http://marcellusdrilling.com/2016/05/critical-project-for-canadian-lng-exports-gets-favorable-ferc-review/ 24CAPP website, Canadian Oil and Natural Gas, Nova Scotia, http://www.capp.ca/canadian-oil-and-natural-gas/industry-across-canada/nova-scotia 25Frederick Brook Shale Gas Study: Sussex/Elgin Sub-basins, prepared for Corridor Resources Inc., Prepared by GLJ Petroleum Consultants, pp. 6-8. 26EIA/ARI World Shale Gas and Shale Oil Resource Assessment, Canada, May 17, 2013, pp. I-50. 27Natural Resource Canada website, https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/sources/shale-tight-resources/17702

Page 5: January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · ERI ommodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial ommittee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan

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Page 6: January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · ERI ommodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial ommittee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

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Page 7: January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · ERI ommodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial ommittee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan

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Page 8: January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · ERI ommodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial ommittee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan

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Page 9: January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · ERI ommodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial ommittee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan

Relevant • Independent • Objective

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Page 10: January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · ERI ommodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial ommittee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

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uk

on

, N

WT

Ma

rk

eta

ble

Pro

du

ctio

n (

Bc

fpd

)

02468

10

12

14

16

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

2014

2015

2016

Alb

erta

Ma

rk

eta

ble

Pro

du

ctio

n (

Bc

fpd

)

0.0

0.5

1.0

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

2014

20

15

20

16

Sa

sk

atc

he

wa

n M

ark

eta

ble

Pro

du

ctio

n (

Bc

fpd

)

0.0

0

0.2

5

0.5

0

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

2014

2015

20

16

Ea

st C

oa

st M

ark

eta

ble

Pro

du

ctio

n (

Bc

fpd

)

Page 11: January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · ERI ommodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial ommittee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 11

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

TC

PL,

Wes

tco

ast

Ener

gy.

No

te:

Alli

ance

del

iver

ies

wer

e n

ot

avai

lab

le b

etw

een

Dec

. 1/1

5 a

nd

Jan

. 16

/16

.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

TC

PL,

Alli

ance

Pip

elin

e.

SOU

RC

E: N

EB.

SOU

RC

E: N

EB.

02468

10

12

14

16

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

20

15

2016

2017

Syste

m F

ield

Re

ce

ipts

Tra

nsC

an

ad

a +

Westc

oast; M

on

thly

Ave

ra

ge

(B

cfp

d)

01234

Dec-1

5F

eb

-16

Ap

r-16

Ju

n-1

6A

ug

-16

Oct-

16

Dec-1

6

Em

ers

on

Iro

qu

ois

Oth

ers

Nia

ga

ra

Ca

na

dia

n G

as E

xp

orts t

o t

he

US

By E

xp

ort P

oin

t -

Ea

st (B

cfp

d)

02468

10

12

14

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6M

ay-1

6J

ul-

16

Se

p-1

6N

ov-1

6J

an

-17

Em

pre

ss

McN

eill

AB

-BC

Allia

nce

Alb

erta

Syste

m D

elive

rie

s (

Bc

fpd

)

0123456789

De

c-1

5F

eb

-16

Ap

r-1

6J

un

-16

Au

g-1

6O

ct-

16

De

c-1

6

Kin

gs

ga

teM

on

ch

yE

lmo

reH

un

tin

gd

on

Ca

na

dia

n G

as E

xp

orts t

o t

he

US

By E

xp

ort P

oin

t -

We

st (

Bc

fpd

)

Page 12: January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · ERI ommodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial ommittee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

Page 12

SOU

RC

E: N

EB.

SOU

RC

E: N

EB.

SOU

RC

E: N

EB, E

IA.

SOU

RC

E: N

EB.

02468

10

12

Dec-1

5F

eb

-16

Ap

r-16

Ju

n-1

6A

ug

-16

Oct-

16

Dec-1

6

We

st

Mid

we

st

Ea

st

US

Im

po

rts o

f C

an

ad

ian

Ga

sB

y U

S R

eg

ion

(B

cfp

d)

02468

De

c-1

5F

eb

-16

Ap

r-1

6J

un

-16

Au

g-1

6O

ct-

16

De

c-1

6

We

st

Mid

we

st

Ea

st

Ave

ra

ge

Ca

na

dia

n E

xp

ort P

ric

eB

y U

S R

eg

ion (

C$

/GJ

)

02468

10

12 No

v-1

5Jan

-16

Mar-

16

May-1

6Ju

l-16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6

Ca

na

da

Me

xic

o

To

ta

l U

S P

ipe

lin

e G

as I

mp

orts (

Bc

fpd

)

01234

Dec-1

5F

eb

-16

Ap

r-16

Ju

n-1

6A

ug

-16

Oct-

16

Dec-1

6

Co

urt

rig

ht

Sa

rnia

St.

Cla

irO

the

r

Ca

na

dia

n G

as I

mp

orts

By I

mp

ort P

oin

t (

Bc

fpd

)

Page 13: January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · ERI ommodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial ommittee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 13

SOU

RC

E: U

S. D

OE.

SOU

RC

E: U

S D

OE.

SOU

RC

E: U

S D

OE.

No

te:

Ther

e w

ere

no

LN

G im

po

rts

for

the

mo

nth

of

No

vem

ber

20

14

.

SOU

RC

E: U

S D

OE.

02468

10

12

14

16

Dec-1

4M

ar-

15

Ju

n-1

5S

ep

-15

Dec-1

5M

ar-

16

Ju

n-1

6S

ep

-16

Dec-1

6

Co

ve P

oin

tE

lba Isla

nd

Evere

ttN

E G

ate

way

Nep

tun

e

Ea

ste

rn

US

LN

G I

mp

orts B

y F

ac

ilit

y (

Bc

f)

02468

Dec-1

4M

ar-

15

Ju

n-1

5S

ep

-15

Dec-1

5M

ar-

16

Ju

n-1

6S

ep

-16

Dec-1

6

Fre

ep

ort

Lake C

harl

es

Sab

ine P

ass

Cam

ero

nG

old

en

Pass

Gu

lf L

NG

US

Go

M L

NG

Im

po

rts B

y F

ac

ilit

y (

Bc

f)

05

10

15

20

Dec-1

4M

ar-

15

Ju

n-1

5S

ep

-15

Dec-1

5M

ar-

16

Ju

n-1

6S

ep

-16

Dec-1

6

Nig

eri

aT

rin

idad

No

rway

Yem

en

US

LN

G I

mp

orts B

y O

rig

in (

Bc

f)

02468

10

12

14

16

18

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

2014

2015

2016

Volu

me-W

eig

hted A

verage L

NG

Pric

e (

US

$/M

MB

tu)

Page 14: January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · ERI ommodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial ommittee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

Page 14

SOU

RC

E: U

S D

OE,

NEB

.

SOU

RC

E: E

IA, U

S D

OE.

SO

UR

CE:

US

DO

E.

01234567

De

c-1

4M

ar-

15

Ju

n-1

5S

ep

-15

De

c-1

5M

ar-

16

Ju

n-1

6S

ep

-16

De

c-1

6

Tu

rkey

Bra

zil

Eg

yp

tIn

dia

Arg

en

tin

a

US

LN

G R

e-E

xp

orts

By D

estin

atio

n (B

cf)

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45 D

ec

-14

Ma

r-1

5J

un

-15

Se

p-1

5D

ec

-15

Ma

r-1

6J

un

-16

Se

p-1

6D

ec

-16

Chart

Title

Eg

yp

t

So

uth

Ko

rea

Italy

Tu

rkey

Mexic

o

Do

min

ican

Rep

.

Ch

ina

Jo

rdan

Sp

ain

Ch

ile

Ku

wait

Arg

en

tin

a

Po

rtu

gal

UA

E

Ind

ia

Bra

zil

Taiw

an

Jap

an

US

LN

G E

xp

orts b

y D

estin

atio

n (

Bc

f)

Page 15: January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · ERI ommodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial ommittee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 15

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

CA

OD

C, B

aker

Hu

ghes

. SO

UR

CE:

CER

I, C

AO

DC

.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

CA

OD

C.

0

500

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00 Jan

-06

Ju

l-07

Jan

-09

Ju

l-10

Jan

-12

Ju

l-13

Jan

-15

Ju

l-16

US

WC

SB

No

rth

Am

eric

an

Ac

tiv

e R

igs

0

100

200

300

40

0

500

60

0

700

80

0

900

1,0

00 Ja

n-0

6J

ul-

07

Ja

n-0

9J

ul-

10

Ja

n-1

2J

ul-

13

Ja

n-1

5J

ul-

16

Ac

tiv

e R

igs

To

tal R

ig D

rillin

g F

leet

Ca

na

dia

n R

ig F

lee

t U

tiliz

atio

nW

ee

kly

Ave

ra

ge

Ac

tiv

e R

igs

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700 Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Jan

-16

Jan

-17

SK

AB

BC

WC

SB

Ac

tiv

e R

igs b

y P

ro

vin

ce

We

ek

ly A

ve

ra

ge

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

15

913

17

21

25

29

33

37

41

45

49

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

62

01

7

We

ste

rn

Ca

na

da

Ac

tiv

e R

igs

We

ek

ly A

ve

ra

ge

Week N

um

ber

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

CA

OD

C.

Page 16: January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · ERI ommodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial ommittee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

Page 16

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Bak

er H

ugh

es.

SO

UR

CE:

CER

I, B

aker

Hu

ghe

s.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Bak

er H

ugh

es.

0%

10%

20%

30

%

40%

50

%

60%

70

%

80%

90

%

100%

0

200

400

600

800

1,0

00

1,2

00

1,4

00

1,6

00

1,8

00

2,0

00

2,2

00

2,4

00 Jan

-06

Ju

l-07

Jan

-09

Ju

l-10

Jan

-12

Ju

l-13

Jan

-15

Ju

l-16

Oil-d

irecte

dG

as-d

irecte

dG

as-d

irecte

d %

US

To

ta

l O

il-

an

d G

as-d

ire

cte

d A

ctiv

e R

igs

0

500

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00 Ja

n-0

6J

ul-

07

Ja

n-0

9J

ul-

10

Ja

n-1

2J

ul-

13

Ja

n-1

5J

ul-

16

To

tal O

il-d

ire

cte

dG

oM

Gas-d

irecte

dO

nsh

ore

Ga

s-d

irecte

d

US

To

ta

l A

ctiv

e R

igs

0

20

40

60

80

100

120 J

an

-06

Ju

l-07

Jan

-09

Ju

l-10

Jan

-12

Ju

l-13

Jan

-15

Ju

l-16

Oil

-dir

ec

ted

Ga

s-d

ire

cte

d

US

Gu

lf o

f M

ex

ico

Ac

tiv

e R

igs

Page 17: January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · ERI ommodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial ommittee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 17

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly, S

tati

stics

Can

ada

CA

NSI

M T

able

12

9-0

00

5

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Sta

tisti

cs C

anad

a C

AN

SIM

Tab

le 1

29

-00

05

.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

EIA

. SO

UR

CE:

CER

I, E

IA.

0

100

20

0

300

400

500

600

700

800

90

0

1,0

00

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r R

an

ge

20

16

Ca

na

dia

n W

ork

ing

Ga

s S

to

ra

ge

(Bc

f, M

on

th

-end)

0

100

200

300

40

0

500

60

0

700

80

0

900

1000

De

c-1

5F

eb

-16

Ap

r-1

6J

un

-16

Au

g-1

6O

ct-

16

De

c-1

6

West

East

Ca

na

dia

n S

to

ra

ge

by R

eg

ion

(B

cf,

Mo

nth

-en

d)

0

500

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00

3,5

00

4,0

00

4,5

00

5,0

00

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ear

Avg

.2

01

62017

US

Lo

we

r-4

8 W

ork

ing

Ga

s S

to

ra

ge

(B

cf,

Mo

nth

-en

d)

0

500

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00

3,5

00

4,0

00

4,5

00

Ja

n-1

6M

ar-

16

Ma

y-1

6J

ul-

16

Se

p-1

6N

ov-1

6J

an

-17

East

Mid

west

Mo

un

tain

Pac

ific

So

uth

Ce

ntr

al

US

Sto

ra

ge

by R

eg

ion

(B

cf,

Mo

nth

-en

d)

•Im

po

rtan

t N

ote

: So

urc

e o

f C

anad

ian

sto

rage

dat

a is

in

tra

nsi

tio

n,

fro

m P

latt

's G

as D

aily

to

Sta

tisti

cs

Can

ada

CA

NSI

M T

able

12

9-0

00

5 -

Can

adia

n m

on

thly

nat

ura

l gas

sto

rage

, C

anad

a an

d p

rovi

nce

s. 2

01

6

dat

a an

d o

nw

ard

s is

no

w c

olle

cted

fro

m t

he

latt

er w

hile

dat

a p

rio

r to

20

16

is f

rom

th

e fo

rmer

.

Page 18: January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · ERI ommodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial ommittee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

Page 18

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly, S

tati

stics

Can

ada

CA

NSI

M T

able

12

9-0

00

5.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tt’s

Gas

Dai

ly, S

tati

stics

Can

ada

CA

NSI

M T

able

12

9-0

00

5.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tt’s

Gas

Dai

ly, S

tati

stics

Can

ada

CA

NSI

M T

able

12

9-0

00

5.

-140

-100

-60

-20

20

60

100

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

WC

_IJ

_W

D

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2016

We

ste

rn

Ca

na

dia

n S

to

ra

ge

In

jec

tio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls(B

cf,

Mo

nth

-end)

-80

-60

-40

-200

20

40

60

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ear

Avg

.2016

Ea

ste

rn

Ca

na

dia

n S

to

ra

ge

In

jec

tio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls

(Bc

f, M

on

th

-end)

-150

-100

-500

50

100

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

6

Ca

na

dia

n S

to

ra

ge

In

jec

tio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls

(Bc

f, M

on

th

-en

d)

Page 19: January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · ERI ommodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial ommittee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 19

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

EIA

. SO

UR

CE:

CER

I, E

IA.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

EIA

.

-250

-200

-150

-100

-500

50

100

150

200

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ear

Avg

.2016

2017

US

Ea

st S

to

ra

ge

In

jec

tio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls(B

cf,

Mo

nth

-end)

-300

-20

0

-1000

100

200

30

0

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ear

Av

g.

2016

2017

US

Mid

we

st R

eg

ion

Sto

ra

ge

Inje

ctio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-100

10

20

30

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

62

01

7

US

Mo

un

ta

in R

eg

ion

Sto

ra

ge

Inje

ctio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls

(Bc

f, M

on

th

-en

d)

-80

-60

-40

-200

20

40

60

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2016

2017

US

Pa

cif

ic R

eg

ion

Sto

ra

ge

In

jec

tio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls(B

cf,

Mo

nth

-en

d)

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

EIA

.

Page 20: January 2017 CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas · ERI ommodity Report – Natural Gas Editorial ommittee: Ganesh Doluweera, Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

Page 20

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

EIA

. SO

UR

CE:

CER

I, E

IA.

-300

-200

-1000

100

200

300

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ear

Av

g.

20

16

2017

US

So

uth

Ce

ntra

l R

eg

ion

Sto

ra

ge

Inje

ctio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls

(Bc

f, M

on

th

-en

d)

-10

00

-80

0

-60

0

-40

0

-20

00

200

400

600

800

JF

MA

MJ

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SO

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5-Y

ear

Av

g.

20

16

2017

US

Sto

ra

ge

In

jec

tio

ns/W

ith

dra

wa

ls

(Bc

f, M

on

th

-en

d)