april 2015 ceri commodity report — natural gas · april 2015 ceri commodity report — natural...

Relevant • Independent • Objective

continents and over long distances in specially designed LNG tankers. These tankers are double-hulled and are designed with special containment systems within the inner hull of the vessel to prevent rupture and leakage.6 Currently, there are generally two types of cargo containment systems utilized: the spherical (Moss) and membrane-type. Traditionally, most LNG tankers used to be of the spherical tank design, easily identifiable with the spherical-style tanks. The membrane-style design, however, is being used in more recent designs, and the balance has dramatically shifted. Currently, nearly 73 percent of LNG carriers utilize the membrane design, while 27 percent of the worldwide fleet utilizes the spherical tank design.7 The two basic membrane systems are the No. 96 System and the Mark III System. Table 1 illustrates typical modern LNG tanker dimensions for selected cargo capacities. Table 1: Typical Modern LNG Tanker Dimensions

Source: ioMosaic Corporation8

As of end-December 2013, there are 357 LNG carriers in the global fleet, with another 108 on order.9 IHS does not include vessels under 18,000 cubic meters (m3). The combined capacity of the fleet is 54 million cubic meters (MMm3).10 According to IGU’s World LNG Report – 2014 Edition,11 at the end of 2013, approximately 60 percent of the world LNG fleet has a capacity of 125,000-149,999 m3. This is followed by ships in the 150,000-177,000 m3 range, which make up 21 percent of the fleet today and which is forecast to increase as many new builds are of this capacity. Vessels with a capacity greater than 210,000 m3 are called Q-Series and account for 13 percent. This category is further divided into Q-Flex (210,000-217,000 m3) and Q-Max (261,700-266,000 m3) vessels.12 Most of

April 2015

CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas

LNG Carriers on the West Coast of British Columbia Paul Kralovic In January 1959, the aptly-named Methane Pioneer became the world’s first Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) ship, carrying cargo from Lake Charles, Louisiana to Canvey Island, United Kingdom. Since then, LNG trade volumes in 2013 are at 236.8 metric tons (Mt) and LNG is exported by 17 countries and imported by 29 countries.1 This is substantially higher than 165 Mt in 20072 when LNG was exported by 15 countries and imported by 18 countries.3 Canada currently has a single LNG import facility, Canaport LNG, located in Saint John, New Brunswick. However, LNG is attracting interest throughout the world, including on the west coast of British Columbia where 20 export terminals are proposed.4 The shale gas plays in northeastern British Columbia are garnering interest from the LNG-hungry Asian markets; Japan and South Korea are the world’s largest importers of LNG and China’s demand is growing quickly.5 This article delves deeper into LNG carriers, the various safety measures LNG carriers must adhere to, and discusses briefly the four leading proposed LNG export terminals on the west coast of British Columbia: Kitimat LNG, BC LNG Export Co-operative (BC LNG), LNG Canada and Pacific NorthWest LNG. LNG Carriers LNG is natural gas that has been cooled to the point (-256° Fahrenheit) where it condenses. Once in its liquid state, natural gas occupies only 1/600 of its gaseous volume, making it economical to transport LNG between

CERI Commodity Report – Natural Gas Editor-in-Chief: Dinara Millington ([email protected]) Contents Featured Article ................................................................................. 1 Natural Gas Prices.............................................................................. 5 Weather ............................................................................................ 7 Consumption and Production............................................................. 9 Transportation................................................................................... 11 Storage .............................................................................................. 13 Liquefied Natural Gas ........................................................................ 16 Drilling Activity .................................................................................. 18

Membrane Carrier Spherical Carrier

LNG Carrier Capacity (m3) 145,700 216,000 125,000 235,000

Length (m) 277.2 303 282 328.5

Breadth (m) 43.4 50 41.6 55

Depth Moulded (M) 26 27 25 32.5

Displacement (Tonnes) 116,941 151,599 99,130 178,247


the fleet owned by Qatar, the largest LNG exporter in the world, is between 210,000 and 266,000 m3. These vessels are specially built for selected trade routes and are only able to dock at specially adapted terminals. In 2013, the average vessel capacity increased to approximately 150,000 m3,13 up from an average between 125,000 and 138,000 m3 in 2002.14 LNG Carriers and Safety The safety record of LNG ships is impeccable and far exceeds any other sector of the shipping industry. Over a 50-year period, there have been no collisions, fires, explosions or hull failures resulting in a loss of containment for LNG ships in port or at sea.15 This record covers more than 135,000 LNG deliveries without a major accident.16 LNG carriers are subject to the following recommendations that have significantly reduced LNG accidents:17 Double-hulled ship designs; Appropriate safety systems to reduce the potential

for damage; Security management and escort of LNG ships

operating in harbors and waterways; and Vessel movement and control zones (e.g., safety and

security zones) to reduce the potential for impacts with other ships or structures.

As a Member State of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Canada endorses and enforces Conventions such as International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL), International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) and International Convention on Standards of Training, Certification and Watchkeeping for Seafarers (STCW). The Canadian Federal Government passed the Canada Shipping Act, 2001, replacing the old Canada Shipping Act. Transport Canada (TC), Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) and Environment Canada (EC) are major players in enforcing shipping laws and regulations. Another factor that contributes to the impeccable safety record of LNG shipping is that the physical and chemical properties of LNG are clearly understood, and their risks are mitigated by technology and operations.18 For example, the dangers of LNG result from three well understood properties: cryogenic temperatures, dispersion characteristics and flammability characteristics. For LNG to burn, a unique set of

conditions must be met. It must first vapourize, and then mix with air in a specific proportion. It then needs to be ignited. The flammability range, or the minimum and maximum range in which concentrations of vapour and air can be ignited, is between 5 and 15 percent; in other words, if fuel concentrations of vapour are less than 5 percent, there is too little methane to burn, and, likewise, if the fuel concentrations are greater than 15 percent, there is not enough oxygen to burn.19

Recognition of these conditions are incorporated into the safety protocols and operations. Nevertheless, the increasing demand for trade in natural gas will significantly increase the number and frequency of LNG tanker deliveries from ports in North America. Safety has always been a leading public perception issue, even though the most recent accident – an on-site explosion at Skikda, a major Algerian LNG terminal in 2004 – is only one of four major accidents dating back to the early 1940s.20 The cause of that accident, which killed 27 workers and injured an additional 74, was a steam boiler explosion at the LNG production plant, which triggered a second, vapour-cloud explosion.21 Proposed LNG Terminals in British Columbia As previously mentioned, there are currently 20 proposals for LNG export terminals on the West Coast of British Columbia. This section discusses briefly the four leading proposals: Kitimat LNG, BC LNG Export Co-operative (BC LNG), LNG Canada and Pacific NorthWest LNG. Kitimat LNG is Canada’s first proposed and approved LNG export terminal. The liquefaction terminal is located at Bish Cove, near the Port of Kitimat. The National Energy Board granted a permit to export up to 10 million tonnes of LNG per annum (Mmtpa), requiring approximately 1.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfpd) production rate.22 This will amount to approximately 12.5 LNG shipments per month.23 Chevron and Woodside Energy International are 50:50 partners on the project, after Apache sold its share to the latter.24 BC LNG – sometimes referred to as Douglas Channel LNG Consortium – is the second LNG exporting proposal submitted to the NEB and is the second project to get approved. Submitted on March 8, 2011, the smaller facility is also located in the Kitimat area, on the west back of the Douglas Channel, on District Lot 99.25 It is important to note that the terminal is a barge-based floating LNG facility. The project received a 20-year


license to export 1.8 Mmtpa of LNG, requiring approximately 0.125 Bcfpd.26 The cost of the terminal is estimated to be up to C$500 million.27 The BC LNG proposal is led by a partnership named BC LNG Export Cooperative LLC, a cooperative set between the Haisla Nations Douglas Channel LNG LP and Houston-based LNG Partners LLC,28 AIJVLP (a limited partnership between AltaGas Ltd. and Idemitsu Kosan Co.), EDF Trading and EXMAR.29 The third LNG proposal is LNG Canada, a partnership with Shell Canada (50 percent), PetroChina Company Limited (20 percent), Korea Gas Corporation (15 percent) and Mitsubishi Corporation (15 percent).30 The project is spearheaded by Shell Canada’s parent company, Royal Dutch Shell. The liquefaction terminal is located at the Port of Kitimat, near the Rio Tinto Alcan Plant. The National Energy Board granted a permit to export up to 24 million tonnes of LNG per annum (Mmtpa), requiring approximately 3.7 Bcfpd.31 With two LNG processing units, or trains planned initially, the planned facility can accommodate up to 170 LNG vessels per year.32 At full completion the facility includes four trains and will accommodate up to 350 LNG vessels per year.33

The fourth LNG proposal is Pacific NorthWest LNG, a partnership between PETRONAS (62 percent), Sinopec (15 percent), Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. Limited (JAPEX) (10 percent), Indian Oil (10 percent) and PetroleumBRUNEI (3 percent).34 While listed fourth in this article, the proposal is quite advanced and has announced a possible final investment decision by the end of 2015. The export terminal is located on Lelu Island, District of Port Edward, on land administered by the Prince Rupert Port Authority.35 The National Energy Board granted a permit to export up to 19.2 million tonnes of LNG per annum (Mmtpa), requiring approximately 2.74 Bcfpd.36 With two LNG processing units, or trains planned initially, the planned facility can accommodate up to 220 LNG vessels per year.37 The $11 billion project received an Environmental Certificate from the British Columbia government in November 2014 and is currently undergoing an environmental assessment with the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency (CEAA).38 It is interesting to note that as of June 2, 2015, the federal review of the terminal is on hold by the CEAA following a request for additional infromation.39

Endnotes 1International Gas Union, World LNG Report – 2014 Edition, pp. 7. 2Sri Lanka will benefit from LNG, LNG World News, http://www.lngworldnews.com/sri-lanka-will-benefit-from-liquefied-natural-gas/, September 15, 2010 3California Energy Commission website, LNG Worldwide, http://www.energy.ca.gov/lng/international.html 4Daily Oil Bulletin, Proposed LNG Export Terminals in Canada, http://www.dailyoilbulletin.com/media/img/DOB-LNG-Export-chartMay2015-Large.jpg 5Jim MacDonald (Principal Specialist at Lloyd’s Register Marine), Growth of the LNG Carrier Fleet 19800-02014, http://blog.lr.org/2014/04/growth-of-the-lng-carrier-fleet-1980-2014/ 6Shell Hazira LNG & Port website, LNG Industry, http://www.haziralngandport.com/lng_industry.htm 7International Gas Union, World LNG Report – 2014 Edition, pp. 28-29. 8GA Melhem, PhD et al., Understand LNG Fire Hazards, ioMosaic Whitepaper, 2007, pp. 15. 9International Gas Union, World LNG Report – 2014 Edition, pp. 28-29. 10ibid 11ibid 12ibid 13ibid 14University of Texas, Center for Energy Economics, The LNG Value Chain, http://www.beg.utexas.edu/energyecon/lng/LNG_introduction_08.php 15Center for LNG, Safety/Security, http://www.lngfacts.org/about-lng/safetysecurity/ 16Center for LNG, Frequently Asked Questions, http://www.lngfacts.org/About-LNG/FAQ.asp#9 17Guidance on Risk Analysis and Safety Implications of a Large Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Spill Over Water, December 2004, http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/oilgas/storage/lng/sandia_lng_1204.pdf, pp. 72. 18University of Texas, Center for Energy Economics, LNG Safety and Security, http://www.beg.utexas.edu/energyecon/lng/documents/CEE_LNG_Safety_and_Security.pdf, pp. 4. 19University of Texas, Center for Energy Economics, LNG Safety and Security, http://www.beg.utexas.edu/energyecon/lng/documents/CEE_LNG_Safety_and_Security.pdf, pp. 11-12. 20University of Houston Law Center, Institute for Energy, Law and Enterprise, LNG Frequently Asked Questions, pp. 7-8. 21ibid 22Chevron Canada website, Kitimat LNG, http://www.chevron.ca/our-businesses/kitimat-lng 23ibid 24ibid 25LNG in BC, Douglas Channel LNG, https://engage.gov.bc.ca/lnginbc/lng-projects/douglas-channel-energy-bc-lng/ 26ibid


27Financial Post Website, AltaGas Poised To Help Save Douglas Channel LNG Project, March 12, 2014, http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/altagas-poised-to-help-save-douglas-channel-lng-project?__lsa=39d8-9a47 28Pipeline News North, NEB Gets another Application Proposing to Export LNG off BC Coast, March 16, 2011, http://www.pipelinenewsnorth.ca/article/20110316/PIPELINE0119/303169976/-1/pipeline/neb-gets-another-application-proposing-to-export-lng-off-bc-coast 29BC LNG website, Douglas Channel Energy Partnership, http://bclnginfo.com/proposed-projects/douglas-channel-energy-partnership-and-pacific-northern-gas-looping-project/ 30LNG in BC, LNG Canada, https://engage.gov.bc.ca/lnginbc/lng-projects/lng-canada/ 31ibid 32LNG Canada website, Shipping Safety, http://lngcanada.ca/the-project/shipping-safety

33ibid 34Pacific NorthWest LNG Website, Learn About Pacific NorthWest LNG, http://pacificnorthwestlng.com/learn-about-pacific-northwest-lng/ 35ibid 36LNG in BC, Pacific NorthWest LNG, https://engage.gov.bc.ca/lnginbc/lng-projects/pacific-northwest-lng/

37Pacific NorthWest LNG Website, Project Background, http://pacificnorthwestlng.com/wp-content/uploads/PNW-4page-Backgrounder.pdf, pp. 2. 38Pacific NorthWest LNG Website, Project Timelines, http://pacificnorthwestlng.com/learn-about-pacific-northwest-lng/project-timeline/ 39Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency, Pacific NorthWest LNG Project, http://www.ceaa-acee.gc.ca/050/details-eng.cfm?evaluation=80032


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n (C

$/G

J)

01234

Mar-

14

May-1

4Ju

l-14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4Jan

-15

Mar-

15

Co

urt

rig

ht

Sa

rnia

St.

Cla

irO

the

r

Ca

na

dia

n G

as Im

po

rts

By Im

po

rt P

oin

t (B

cfp

d)

02468

10

12

14 Fe

b-1

4A

pr-

14

Ju

n-1

4A

ug

-14

Oct-

14

De

c-1

4F

eb

-15

Ca

na

da

Me

xic

o

To

ta

l U

S P

ip

elin

e G

as Im

po

rts (B

cfp

d)


SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,0

00

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

42

01

5

Ca

na

dia

n W

ork

in

g G

as S

to

ra

ge

(B

cf, M

on

th

-e

nd

)

0

500

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00

3,5

00

4,0

00

4,5

00

Ap

r-1

4J

un

-14

Au

g-1

4O

ct-

14

De

c-1

4F

eb

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Ea

st

We

st

Pro

du

cin

g R

eg

ion

US

S

torage by R

egion (B

cf, M

onth

-end)

0

500

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00

3,5

00

4,0

00

4,5

00

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

42

01

5

US

L

ow

er-4

8 W

ork

in

g G

as S

to

ra

ge

(B

cf, M

on

th

-e

nd

)

0

10

0

200

300

400

500

600

700

80

0

900

Ap

r-1

4J

un

-14

Au

g-1

4O

ct-

14

De

c-1

4F

eb

-15

Ap

r-1

5

We

st

Ea

st

Canadian S

torage by R

egion (B

cf, M

onth-end)


SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

-140

-100

-60

-20

20

60

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

WC

_IJ

_W

D

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

42

01

5

We

ste

rn

C

an

ad

a S

to

ra

ge

In

je

ctio

ns/W

ith

dra

wals

(B

cf, M

on

th

-e

nd

)

-250

-200

-150

-100

-500

50

100

150

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

42

01

5

Canadian S

torage

Injections/W

ithdraw

als (B

cf, M

onth

-end)

-100

-80

-60

-40

-200

20

40

60

80

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

42

01

5

Eastern C

anadian S

torage Injections/W

ithdraw

als

(B

cf, M

onth-end)


SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

-150

-100

-500

50

100

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

42

01

5

US

W

estern C

onsum

ing R

egion S

torage

Injections/W

ithdraw

als (B

cf, M

onth-end)

-400

-300

-200

-1000

100

200

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

42

01

5

US

P

roducing R

egion S

torage Injections/W

ithdraw

als

(B

cf, M

onth-end)

-12

00

-10

00

-800

-600

-400

-2000

200

400

600

800

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

42

01

5

US

S

torage

Injections/W

ithdraw

als (B

cf, M

onth-end)

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

42

01

5

US

E

astern S

torage

Injections/W

ithdraw

als (B

cf, M

onth-end)


SOU

RC

E: U

S D

OE.

SO

UR

CE:

US

DO

E.

SOU

RC

E: U

S D

OE.

No

te:

Ther

e w

ere

no

LN

G im

po

rts

for

the

mo

nth

of

No

vem

ber

20

14

.

SOU

RC

E: U

S D

OE.

02468

Mar-

13

Ju

n-1

3S

ep

-13

Dec-1

3M

ar-

14

Ju

n-1

4S

ep

-14

Dec-1

4M

ar-

15

Fre

ep

ort

La

ke

Ch

arl

es

Sa

bin

e P

as

sC

am

ero

nG

old

en

Pa

ss

Gu

lf L

NG

US

G

oM

L

NG

Im

po

rts B

y F

ac

ility (B

cf)

05

10

15

20

Mar-

13

Ju

n-1

3S

ep

-13

Dec-1

3M

ar-

14

Ju

n-1

4S

ep

-14

Dec-1

4M

ar-

15

Oth

er

Nig

eri

aT

rin

ida

dN

orw

ay

Qa

tar

Ye

me

n

US

L

NG

Im

po

rts B

y O

rig

in

(B

cf)

02468

10

12

14

16

Ma

r-1

3J

un

-13

Se

p-1

3D

ec

-13

Ma

r-1

4J

un

-14

Se

p-1

4D

ec

-14

Ma

r-1

5

Co

ve

Po

int

Elb

a I

sla

nd

Ev

ere

ttN

E G

ate

wa

yN

ep

tun

e

Ea

ste

rn

U

S L

NG

Im

po

rts B

y F

ac

ility (B

cf)

02468

10

12

14

16

18

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

20

13

20

14

20

15

Volum

e-W

eighted A

verage LN

G P

rice (U

S$/M

MB

tu)


SOU

RC

E: U

S D

OE,

NEB

. SO

UR

CE:

US

DO

E.

SOU

RC

E: E

IA, U

S D

OE.

SO

UR

CE:

US

DO

E.

0123456 Mar-

13

Ju

n-1

3S

ep

-13

Dec-1

3M

ar-

14

Ju

n-1

4S

ep

-14

Dec-1

4M

ar-

15

Japan

US

L

NG

E

xp

orts to

J

ap

an

(B

cf)

01234567 Mar-

13

Ju

n-1

3S

ep

-13

Dec-1

3M

ar-

14

Ju

n-1

4S

ep

-14

Dec-1

4M

ar-

15

Me

xic

oB

razil

Ja

pa

n

US

L

NG

R

e-E

xp

orts

By D

estina

tion

(B

cf)


SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

CA

OD

C, B

aker

Hu

ghes

. SO

UR

CE:

CER

I, C

AO

DC

.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

CA

OD

C.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

CA

OD

C.

0

500

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00 Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

US

WC

SB

North A

merican A

ctive R

igs

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,0

00 Ja

n-0

6J

an

-07

Ja

n-0

8J

an

-09

Jan

-10

Ja

n-1

1J

an

-12

Ja

n-1

3J

an

-14

Jan

-15

Ac

tiv

e R

igs

To

tal

Rig

Dri

llin

g F

lee

t

Ca

na

dia

n R

ig

F

le

et U

tiliza

tio

n

We

ek

ly A

ve

ra

ge

Ac

tive

Rig

s

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

70

0 Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

SK

AB

BC

WC

SB

A

ctive

R

ig

s b

y P

ro

vin

ce

We

ek

ly A

ve

ra

ge

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

15

913

17

21

25

29

33

37

41

45

49

5-Y

ea

r A

vg

.2

01

42

01

5

We

ste

rn

C

an

ad

a A

ctive

R

ig

s

We

ek

ly A

ve

ra

ge

Week N

um

ber


SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Bak

er H

ugh

es.

SO

UR

CE:

CER

I, B

aker

Hu

ghe

s.

SOU

RC

E: C

ERI,

Bak

er H

ugh

es.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40

%

50%

60%

70%

80

%

90%

100%

0

200

400

600

800

1,0

00

1,2

00

1,4

00

1,6

00

1,8

00

2,0

00

2,2

00

2,4

00 Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Oil

-dir

ec

ted

Ga

s-d

ire

cte

dG

as

-dir

ec

ted

%

US

T

ota

l A

ctive

R

ig

s

0

50

0

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00 Jan

-06

Ja

n-0

7J

an

-08

Jan

-09

Ja

n-1

0J

an

-11

Jan

-12

Ja

n-1

3J

an

-14

Jan

-15

To

tal

Oil

-dir

ec

ted

Go

M G

as

-dir

ec

ted

On

sh

ore

Ga

s-d

ire

cte

d

US

T

ota

l A

ctive

R

ig

s

0

20

40

60

80

100

120 J

an

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Oil

-dir

ec

ted

Ga

s-d

ire

cte

d

US

G

ulf o

f M

ex

ic

o A

ctive

R

ig

s

april 2015 ceri commodity report — natural gas · april 2015 ceri commodity report — natural...

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