may 2010 ceri commodity report - natural gas · ceri commodity report - natural gas page 4 source:...

18
Relevant Independent Objective May 2010 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas CERI COMMODITY REPORT - NATURAL GAS Editor-in-Chief: Mellisa Mei ([email protected]) CONTENTS FEATURED ARTICLE ................................................ 1 NATURAL GAS PRICES ........................................... 4 WEATHER ............................................................... 6 CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION ......................... 8 TRANSPORTATION ................................................. 10 STORAGE ................................................................ 12 LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS ...................................... 15 DRILLING ACTIVITY ................................................ 17 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Since 1995, a tropical multi-decadal signal, which consisted of an enhanced West African monsoon system and suppressed convection over the Amazon Basin, has resulted in above normal Atlantic hurricane activity. 1 In fact, 10 of the last 15 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been more active than the long-term average, while only 2 Atlantic hurricane seasons have demonstrated below normal activity. With the current high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes, above average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, and the expectation of a reduced wind shear from the development of either El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral or La Nina conditions, Colorado State University (CSU), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Centre, and the Weather Services International (WSI) Corporation are predicting storm activity to be above average during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. The climate conditions expected over the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season are similar to those exhibited in 2005, when 27 tropical storms, 15 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, including the costliest hurricane (Hurricane Katrina) to make landfall in the US, were recorded. Figure 1 displays the anticipated 2010 peak season (August to October) climate factors, which are historically indicative of above normal Atlantic hurricane activity, and support the NOAA’s 2010 Atlantic hurricane forecast. Figure 1: Climate Factors for an Active 2010 Hurricane Season Source: NOAA The NOAA’s May 27, 2010 forecast puts the likelihood of an above average hurricane season at 85 percent, with a 70 percent chance of a 2010 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index 2 ranging between 155 percent and 270 percent of the median. 3 Figure 2 provides the hurricane forecasts from the CSU, the NOAA, and WSI Corporation. Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach and Dr. William M. Gray, from the CSU’s Department of Atmospheric Science, are expecting the 2010 hurricane season to be more active than the long-term (1950-2000) average season. 4 The team’s 27 th annual Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane outlook, issued June 2, 2010, is forecasting 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater), and an ACE index of 185. According to the CSU, the probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall

Upload: others

Post on 14-Aug-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: May 2010 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas · CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas PAGE 4 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Price Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide

Relevant • Independent • Objective

PAGE 1

May 2010

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

CERI COMMODITY REPORT - NATURAL GAS

Editor-in-Chief: Mellisa Mei ([email protected])

CONTENTS

FEATURED ARTICLE................................................ 1

NATURAL GAS PRICES ........................................... 4

WEATHER ............................................................... 6

CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION ......................... 8

TRANSPORTATION .................................................10

STORAGE ................................................................12

LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS ......................................15

DRILLING ACTIVITY................................................17

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Since 1995, a tropical multi-decadal signal, which consistedof an enhanced West African monsoon system andsuppressed convection over the Amazon Basin, hasresulted in above normal Atlantic hurricane activity.1 Infact, 10 of the last 15 Atlantic hurricane seasons havebeen more active than the long-term average, while only2 Atlantic hurricane seasons have demonstrated belownormal activity.

With the current high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes,above average sea surface temperatures in the tropicalAtlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, and the expectationof a reduced wind shear from the development of eitherEl Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral or La Ninaconditions, Colorado State University (CSU), the NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ClimatePrediction Centre, and the Weather Services International(WSI) Corporation are predicting storm activity to be aboveaverage during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Theclimate conditions expected over the 2010 Atlantichurricane season are similar to those exhibited in 2005,

when 27 tropical storms, 15 hurricanes, and 4 majorhurricanes, including the costliest hurricane (HurricaneKatrina) to make landfall in the US, were recorded. Figure1 displays the anticipated 2010 peak season (August toOctober) climate factors, which are historically indicativeof above normal Atlantic hurricane activity, and supportthe NOAA’s 2010 Atlantic hurricane forecast.

Figure 1: Climate Factors for an Active 2010Hurricane Season

Source: NOAA

The NOAA’s May 27, 2010 forecast puts the likelihood ofan above average hurricane season at 85 percent, with a70 percent chance of a 2010 Accumulated Cyclone Energy(ACE) index2 ranging between 155 percent and 270 percentof the median.3 Figure 2 provides the hurricane forecastsfrom the CSU, the NOAA, and WSI Corporation.

Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach and Dr. William M. Gray, from theCSU’s Department of Atmospheric Science, are expectingthe 2010 hurricane season to be more active than thelong-term (1950-2000) average season.4 The team’s 27th

annual Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane outlook, issuedJune 2, 2010, is forecasting 18 named storms, 10hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater),and an ACE index of 185. According to the CSU, theprobability of at least one major hurricane making landfall

Page 2: May 2010 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas · CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas PAGE 4 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Price Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

PAGE 2

is 50 percent along the US Gulf Coast (between the FloridaPanhandle and Brownsville), 51 percent for the US EastCoast, and 76 percent for the entire US coastline.5

The NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane season outlook isprobabilistic, and provides a range of values for theexpected number of named storms, hurricanes, and majorhurricanes, rather than an absolute value. In Figure 3,the lower bound of this range is indicated as “NOAA Low”,while the upper bound is shown as “NOAA High”. The May27 outlook estimated a 70 percent chance of 14 to 23named storms, 8 to 14 hurricanes, and 3 to 7 majorhurricanes occurring during the 2010 season. Althoughthe NOAA does not provide a hurricane landfall outlook,the organization has indicated that a positive correlationexists between the probability of multiple hurricane strikesand the seasonal hurricane activity level.6

In the WSI Corporation’s May 26 update of the 2010 Atlantichurricane season, the group is predicting 18 namedstorms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.7 The WSICorporation’s hurricane landfall forecasting model hasindicated that it is highly probable that a hurricane willstrike the US northeast coastline, between the Outer Banksand Maine. The WSI Corporation’s next hurricane updatewill be released on June 23, 2010.

If forecasts of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season come tofruition, this season could be one of the most active inrecorded history. However, it is highly unlikely that naturalgas prices will respond as they did in 2005, when a monthafter Hurricane Katrina made landfall, the average HenryHub spot price increased by $2.96/MMBTU, or 27 percent,to $13.93/MMBTU.

The most significant change, since 2005, has been theimpact of US shale gas production on the North Americansupply picture, as well as the decline in offshore naturalgas-directed drilling, relative to onshore natural gas-directed drilling. In 2005, an average of 76 natural gasrigs were operating in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), accountingfor 6.5 percent of total US natural gas drilling activity. By2009, drilling activity in the GOM declined to an averageof 37 rigs, or 4.6 percent of total US natural gas-directeddrilling. Over the same period of time, natural gasproduction from the GOM declined by an average of 1.9BCFPD, to 6.7 BCFPD. Figure 3 illustrates weekly historicalnatural gas-directed rig activity in the GOM, as a percentageof total US natural gas-directed rigs, between January 1,2005 and May 28, 2010.

Figure 3: GOM Drilling as a Percentage of Total USDrilling, 2005-2010

Source: Baker Hughes

Approximately 8.8 BCFPD of natural gas from the GOMwas shut-in when Hurricane Katrina made landfall at theend of August 2005.8 On September 23, 2005, whenHurricane Rita made landfall, 7.2 BCFPD of natural gasremained shut-in.9 While GOM production shut-ins maycause short-term price spikes, when combined with highspace cooling demand during the hot summer months of2010, it is unlikely that these shut-ins would result fromthe destruction of drilling infrastructure in the GOM, andproduction would be expected to resume relatively quickly.Many of the 167 platforms that were either damaged ordestroyed by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita10 weresubsequently rebuilt to withstand hurricanes of Category5 strength.

Figure 2: Forecasts of 2010 Hurricane Season

Sources: CSU, NOAA Climate Prediction Centre, WSI Corporation

 

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Named Storms Hurricanes Major Hurricanes

CSU NOAA Low NOAA High WSI

 

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1- Jan-05 1-Jan-06 1-Jan-07 1-Jan -08 1-Jan- 09 1-Jan-10

Page 3: May 2010 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas · CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas PAGE 4 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Price Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide

Relevant • Independent • Objective

PAGE 3

On a purely speculative note, a hurricane striking theTexas/Louisiana coastline would have a tendency to movethe oil slick from the BP accident site inland, possiblycollecting in populated centres, oil and gas infrastructure,and wild life habitats. The vapours emitted from thesecollections of oil could be deemed hazardous to humanhealth, resulting in the temporary relocation of humanactivities in these areas. In such a scenario, the continuingoperation of onshore hydrocarbon processing facilities,requiring human operators, might be impeded.Additionally, the coastal current created by the stormapproaching land, would drive the remnants of the oil slicktowards the Mexican coastline, the Florida Panhandle, andpossibly entering the Gulf Stream. Figure 4 shows the zonesof origin, and the paths, of the average hurricane in August.

Figure 4: Average August Hurricane Originsand Paths

Source: NOAA National Hurricane Centre

Endnotes1"The Tropical Multi-Decadal Signal since 1995", The National Oceanicand Atmospheric Administration, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/figure4.gif, Accessed on June 8, 2010.2 The NOAA calculates the accumulated cyclone energy index bysumming the squares of the maximum sustained surface wind speed,in knots, every six hours for all periods while the named system is atropical storm or hurricane.3 “NOAA: 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook”, NOAA/NationalWeather Service, May 27, 2010, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml, Accessed on June 7, 2010.4 Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, Extended Range Forecastof Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probabilityfor 2010, Colorado State University, Department of AtmosphericScience, June 2, 2010, http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2010/june2010/jun2010.pdf, accessed on June 7, 2010.5 Ibid.6 “NOAA: 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook”, NOAA/NationalWeather Service, May 27, 2010, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml, Accessed on June 7, 2010.7 “WSI Raises Its April Forecast Numbers for 2010 Hurricane Season”,WSI Corporation, May 26, 2010, http://www.wsi.com/d2af3877-41d5-4009-bd79-67de31c5eb68/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm, Accessed on June 7, 2010.8 “Hurricane Katrina Evacuation and Production Shut-in StatisticsReport as of Tuesday, August 30, 3005", US Department of theInteriors, Offshore Energy and Minerals Management, August 30,2005, http://www.mms.gov/ooc/press/2005/press0830.htm,Accessed on June 10, 2010.9 “Hurricane Katrina/Hurricane Rita Evacuation and Production Shut-in Statistics Report as of Friday, September 23, 2005", US Departmentof the Interiors, Offshore Energy and Minerals Management,September 23, 2005, http://www.mms.gov/ooc/press/2005/press0923.htm, Accessed on June 10, 2010.10 “Hurricane Katrina and Rita Research”, US Department of theInteriors, Offshore Energy and Minerals Management, http://www.mms.gov/tarprojectcategories/hurricaneKatrinaRita.htm,Accessed on June 10, 2010.

Page 4: May 2010 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas · CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas PAGE 4 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Price Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

PAGE 4

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Pric

e D

aily

Pric

e G

uide

.SO

URCE

: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly P

rice

Gui

de.

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly P

rice

Gui

de.

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly P

rice

Gui

de.

-10123456789101112131415 Jan-

03Ja

n-04

Jan-

05Ja

n-06

Jan-

07Ja

n-08

Jan-

09Ja

n-10

US$

/MM

Btu

AEC

O-C

Hen

ry H

ub

Diff

eren

tial

Hen

ry H

ub/

AE

CO

Beg

inni

ng o

f N

ext

Mon

th S

pot

Pri

ce

-3-2-10123456789101112131415 Jan-

03Ja

n-04

Jan-

05Ja

n-06

Jan-

07Ja

n-08

Jan-

09Ja

n-10

US$

/MM

Btu

Hen

ry H

ub/C

hica

goB

egin

ning

of

Nex

t M

onth

Spo

t P

rice

Chi

cago

Hen

ry H

ub

Diff

eren

tial

-10123456789101112131415 Jan-

03Ja

n-04

Jan-

05Ja

n-06

Jan-

07Ja

n-08

Jan-

09Ja

n-10

Hen

ry H

ub/R

ocki

esB

egin

ning

of

Nex

t M

onth

Spo

t P

rice

Roc

kies

Hen

ry H

ub

Diff

eren

tial

US$

/MM

Btu

-2-10123456789101112131415 Jan-

03Ja

n-04

Jan-

05Ja

n-06

Jan-

07Ja

n-08

Jan-

09Ja

n-10

Hen

ry H

ub/S

outh

ern

Cal

ifor

nia

Beg

inni

ng o

f N

ext

Mon

th S

pot

Pri

ce

Sout

hern

Cal

iforn

ia

Hen

ry H

ub

Diff

eren

tial

US$

/MM

Btu

Page 5: May 2010 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas · CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas PAGE 4 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Price Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide

Relevant • Independent • Objective

PAGE 5

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Can

adia

n G

as A

ssoc

iatio

n, S

tatis

tics

Cana

da.

SOU

RCE

: C

anad

ian

Gas

Ass

ocia

tion.

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

NO

AA,

EIA.

SOU

RCE

: C

anad

ian

Gas

Ass

ocia

tion,

NO

AA.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Ye

ar A

vg.

2009

2010

Can

adia

n H

eati

ng

Deg

ree

Day

s

01234567

0

200

400

600

800

1,00

0

1,20

0 Jan-

07M

ay-0

7Se

p-07

Jan-

08M

ay-0

8Se

p-08

Jan-

09M

ay-0

9Se

p-09

Jan-

10

Deg

ree

Day

sC

onsu

mpt

ion

Can

adia

n H

eati

ng D

egre

e D

ays

v.

Res

iden

tial

and

Com

mer

cial

Con

sum

ptio

nD

egre

e D

ays

BC

FPD

CER

I Est

imat

e

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,00

0

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Ye

ar A

vg.

2009

2010

US

Hea

ting

Deg

ree

Day

s

0102030405060

0

200

400

600

800

1,00

0

1,20

0 Jan-

07Ju

n-07

Nov

-07

Apr

-08

Sep-

08Fe

b-09

Jul-0

9D

ec-0

9M

ay-1

0

Deg

ree

Day

sC

onsu

mpt

ion

US

Hea

ting

Deg

ree

Day

s v.

R

esid

enti

al a

nd C

omm

erci

al C

onsu

mpt

ion

Deg

ree

Day

sB

CFP

D

CER

I Est

imat

e

Page 6: May 2010 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas · CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas PAGE 4 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Price Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

PAGE 6

SOU

RCE

: E

nviro

nmen

t Ca

nada

.SO

URCE

: E

nviro

nmen

t Ca

nada

.

SOU

RCE

: N

OAA

.SO

URCE

: N

OAA

.

Page 7: May 2010 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas · CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas PAGE 4 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Price Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide

Relevant • Independent • Objective

PAGE 7

SOU

RCE

: N

OAA

.SO

URCE

: N

OAA

.

SOU

RCE

: E

nviro

nmen

t Ca

nada

.

Nor

th A

mer

ican

Wea

ther

•With

the

exce

ptio

nof

sout

hwes

tern

Briti

shC

olum

bia,

Env

ironm

ent

Can

ada

isfo

reca

stin

gw

arm

erth

anno

rmal

wea

ther

cond

ition

sth

roug

hout

the

coun

tryov

erth

ene

xtth

ree

mon

ths.

•Whi

leth

eU

SN

atio

nal

Oce

anic

and

Atm

osph

eric

Adm

inis

tratio

n(N

OA

A)is

proj

ectin

gab

ove

norm

alte

mpe

ratu

res

inw

este

rnan

dso

uthe

aste

rnU

Sst

ates

,as

wel

las

Ala

ska,

tem

pera

ture

sac

ross

cent

ralU

Sst

ates

are

antic

ipat

edto

fall

belo

wno

rmal

betw

een

June

and

Aug

ust.

•The

US

NO

AA’s

thre

em

onth

prec

ipita

tion

outlo

okin

dica

tes

belo

wav

erag

epr

ecip

itatio

nin

the

US

north

wes

t,an

dab

ove

aver

age

prec

ipita

tion

alon

gth

eG

ulf

Coa

stan

dno

rthce

ntra

lUS

regi

ons.

•Abo

veav

erag

ete

mpe

ratu

res

inth

eU

Sno

rthw

est,

com

bine

dw

ithde

crea

sed

hydr

oele

ctric

gene

ratio

nin

the

regi

on,w

illre

sult

inhi

gher

natu

ralg

asde

man

dfro

mth

eel

ectri

city

sect

or.

•The

figur

esbe

low

pres

ent

the

aver

age

popu

latio

n-w

eigh

ted

heat

ing

degr

eeda

ys,

and

resi

dent

iala

ndco

mm

erci

alga

sde

man

d(c

ombi

ned)

,in

both

Can

ada

and

the

US

,fro

mJu

neto

Aug

ust.

Can

ada

5-Ye

ar A

vera

geJu

neJu

lyA

ugus

tH

eatin

g D

egre

e D

ays

51.9

13.9

26.8

Res

iden

tial +

Com

mer

cial

C

onsu

mpt

ion

(BC

FPD

)1.

21.

00.

9

Uni

ted

Stat

es5-

Year

Ave

rage

June

July

Augu

stH

eatin

g D

egre

e D

ays

27.2

6.6

11.6

Res

iden

tial +

Com

mer

cial

C

onsu

mpt

ion

(BC

FPD

)9.

27.

97.

7

Page 8: May 2010 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas · CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas PAGE 4 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Price Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

PAGE 8

SOU

RCE

: S

tatis

tics

Cana

da.

SOU

RCE

: S

tatis

tics

Cana

da,

NEB

.

SOU

RCE

: E

IA.

SOU

RCE

: E

IA.

0246810121416

Jan-

06Ju

l-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09

Res

iden

tial

Com

mer

cial

Indu

stria

l & P

ower

Can

adia

n C

onsu

mpt

ion

By

Sec

tor

BC

FPD

010203040506070

Jan-

06Ju

l-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10

US

Tota

lLo

uisi

ana

GO

M F

eder

al W

ater

sTe

xas

US

Mar

keta

ble

Pro

duct

ion

BC

FPD

The

aver

age

US

mar

keta

ble

gas

prod

uctio

n in

Q1

2010

was

0.7

BC

FPD

hig

her t

han

in Q

1 20

09.

02468101214161820

Jan-

06Ju

n-06

Nov

-06

Apr

-07

Sep-

07Fe

b-08

Jul-0

8D

ec-0

8M

ay-0

9O

ct-0

9

E. C

oast

SKA

BB

C, Y

ukon

, NW

T

Can

adia

n M

arke

tabl

e P

rodu

ctio

n B

y P

rovi

nce

/Reg

ion

BC

FPD

020406080100

120

140 Ja

n-06

Jul-0

6Ja

n-07

Jul-0

7Ja

n-08

Jul-0

8Ja

n-09

Jul-0

9Ja

n-10

Res

iden

tial

Com

mer

cial

Elec

tric

Pow

erIn

dust

rial

BC

FPD

US

Con

sum

ptio

n B

y S

ecto

r

Page 9: May 2010 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas · CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas PAGE 4 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Price Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide

Relevant • Independent • Objective

PAGE 9

SOU

RCE

: S

tatis

tics

Cana

da,

NEB

.SO

URCE

: S

tatis

tics

Cana

da,

NEB

.

SOU

RCE

: S

tatis

tics

Cana

da,

NEB

.SO

URCE

: S

tatis

tics

Cana

da,

NEB

.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

2007

2008

2009

BC

, Yuk

on, N

WT

Ma

rket

able

Pro

duct

ion

BC

FPD

0246810121416

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

2007

2008

2009

AB

Mar

keta

ble

Pro

duct

ion

BC

FPD

0.0

0.5

1.0

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

2007

2008

2009

SK

Mar

keta

ble

Pro

duct

ion

BC

FPD

0.00

0.25

0.50

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

2007

2008

2009

Eas

t C

oast

Mar

keta

ble

Pro

duct

ion

BC

FPD

The

Sabl

e O

ffsho

re E

nerg

y Pr

ojec

t's s

ched

uled

20

day

outa

ge.

Page 10: May 2010 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas · CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas PAGE 4 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Price Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

PAGE 10

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI.

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI.

SOU

RCE:

N

EB.

SOU

RCE:

N

EB.

0246810121416

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

2008

2009

2010

BC

FPD

Sys

tem

Fie

ld R

ecei

pts

Tra

nsC

anad

a +

Wes

tcoa

st;

Mon

thly

Ave

rage

0246810121416

May

-09

Jul-0

9Se

p-09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10M

ar-1

0M

ay-1

0

Alli

ance

AB

-BC

McN

eil

Empr

ess

BC

FPD

Alb

erta

Sys

tem

Del

iver

ies

012345678910

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-0

9Se

p-09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10M

ar-1

0

Hun

tingd

onEl

mor

eM

onch

yK

ings

gate

Can

adia

n G

as E

xpo

rts

to t

he U

SB

y E

xpor

t P

oint

-W

est

BC

FPD

012345678910

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-0

9Se

p-09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10M

ar-1

0

Oth

ers

Nia

gara

Iroqu

ois

Emer

son

Can

adia

n G

as E

xpo

rts

to t

he U

SB

y E

xpor

t P

oint

-E

ast

BC

FPD

Year

-ove

r-ye

ar, p

ipel

ine

gas

expo

rts

thro

ugh

east

ern

Can

ada

have

dec

lined

by

15

perc

ent,

or 0

.6 B

CFP

D.

Page 11: May 2010 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas · CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas PAGE 4 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Price Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide

Relevant • Independent • Objective

PAGE 11

SOU

RCE:

N

EB.

SOU

RCE:

N

EB.

SOU

RCE

: N

EB,

EIA.

SOU

RCE:

N

EB.

02468101214

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-0

9Se

p-09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10M

ar-1

0

Cal

iforn

iaPa

cific

NW

Nor

thea

stC

entr

al

US

Impo

rts

of C

anad

ian

Gas

By

US

Reg

ion

BC

FPD

Can

adia

n ex

port

s to

the

nort

heas

t US

have

dec

lined

by

24

perc

ent,

or 0

.7 B

CFP

D s

ince

Mar

ch 2

009.

02468101214

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-0

9Se

p-09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10M

ar-1

0

Paci

fic N

WC

alifo

rnia

Cen

tral

Nor

thea

st

Ave

rage

Can

adia

n E

xpor

t P

rice

By

US

Reg

ion

C$/

GJ

02468101214 Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-0

9Se

p-09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10M

ar-1

0

Mex

ico

Can

ada

Tot

al U

S P

ipel

ine

Gas

Im

port

s

BC

FPD

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-0

9Se

p-09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10M

ar-1

0

Oth

erSt

. Cla

irSa

rnia

Cou

rtrig

ht

BC

FPD

Can

adia

n G

as I

mpo

rts

By

Impo

rt P

oint

Page 12: May 2010 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas · CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas PAGE 4 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Price Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

PAGE 12

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Ye

ar A

vg.

2009

2010

BC

F, M

onth

End

Can

adia

n W

orki

ng G

as S

tora

ge

As

of M

ay 2

8, C

anad

ian

stor

age

was

op

erat

ing

at 5

6 pe

rcen

t of c

apac

ity.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

May

-09

Jul-0

9Se

p-09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10M

ar-1

0M

ay-1

0

East

Wes

t

Can

adia

n S

tora

ge b

y R

egio

nB

CF,

Mon

th E

nd

0

500

1,00

0

1,50

0

2,00

0

2,50

0

3,00

0

3,50

0

4,00

0

4,50

0

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Ye

ar A

vg.

2009

2010

BC

F, M

onth

End

US

Low

er-4

8 W

orki

ng G

as S

tora

ge

0

500

1,00

0

1,50

0

2,00

0

2,50

0

3,00

0

3,50

0

4,00

0

4,50

0

May

-09

Jul-0

9Se

p-09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10M

ar-1

0M

ay-1

0

Prod

ucin

g R

egio

nW

est

East

BC

F, M

onth

End

US

Sto

rage

by

Reg

ion

Page 13: May 2010 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas · CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas PAGE 4 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Price Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide

Relevant • Independent • Objective

PAGE 13

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

-100-8

0

-60

-40

-20020406080

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

WC

_IJ_

WD

5-Ye

ar A

vg.

2009

2010

BC

F, M

onth

EndW

este

rn C

anad

a S

tora

ge

-80

-60

-40

-20020406080

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Ye

ar A

vg.

2009

2010

Eas

tern

Can

adi

an S

tora

ge

BC

F, M

onth

End

-150

-100-5

0050100

150

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Ye

ar A

vg.

2009

2010

Can

adia

n S

tora

ge

BC

F, M

onth

End

Nor

th A

mer

ican

Sto

rage

•As

ofM

ay28

,the

volu

me

ofw

orki

ngga

sin

Can

adia

nst

orag

eto

tale

d37

4.9

BC

F,18

perc

ent,

or57

BC

Fab

ove

the

five-

year

aver

age.

•Sin

ceA

pril,

the

surp

lus

inC

anad

ian

wor

king

gas

stor

age

over

the

prev

ious

year

has

decl

ined

by78

BC

F,to

12.6

BC

Fat

the

end

ofM

ay.

•Net

inje

ctio

nsof

natu

ralg

asin

toea

ster

nan

dw

este

rnC

anad

ian

stor

age

wer

e41

.8B

CF

and

35.9

BC

Fbe

low

regi

onal

stor

age

inje

ctio

nsm

ade

durin

gth

esa

me

perio

dla

stye

ar,r

espe

ctiv

ely.

•As

ofM

ay28

,w

orki

ngga

sin

US

unde

rgro

und

stor

age

tota

led

2,35

7B

CF,

15pe

rcen

t,or

314

BC

Fab

ove

the

five-

year

aver

age.

•Sto

rage

addi

tions

inth

epr

oduc

ing

regi

onan

dth

eea

ster

nco

nsum

ing

regi

onac

coun

ted

for8

2pe

rcen

toft

otal

inje

ctio

nsin

toU

Sun

derg

roun

dst

orag

ein

May

.•T

hene

tin

ject

ions

ofna

tura

lga

sin

toU

Sst

orag

edu

ring

the

mon

thof

May

wer

ene

arly

30pe

rcen

t,or

152

BC

Flo

wer

than

stor

age

inje

ctio

nsin

May

2009

,an

d10

perc

ent,

or41

BC

Fbe

low

the

five-

year

aver

age.

•The

larg

estr

egio

nald

evia

tion

from

obse

rved

stor

age

addi

tions

inth

epr

evio

usye

aroc

curr

edin

the

US

east

ern

cons

umin

gar

ea,w

here

abov

eno

rmal

tem

pera

ture

sw

ere

exhi

bite

ddu

ring

the

mon

thof

May

.•A

ccor

ding

toda

tafro

mth

eU

SN

OA

A,U

Spo

pula

tion-

wei

ghte

dco

olin

gde

gree

days

inM

ayex

ceed

edth

eno

rmby

appr

oxim

atel

y35

perc

ent.

Page 14: May 2010 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas · CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas PAGE 4 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Price Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

PAGE 14

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

-100-8

0

-60

-40

-20020406080100

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Ye

ar A

vg.

2009

2010

US

Wes

tern

Con

sum

ing

Reg

ion

Sto

rage

BC

F, M

onth

End

-700

-500

-300

-10010

0

300

500

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Ye

ar A

vg.

2009

2010

US

Eas

tern

Sto

rage

BC

F, M

onth

End

-250

-200

-150

-100-5

0050100

150

200

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Ye

ar A

vg.

2009

2010

US

Pro

duci

ng R

egio

n S

tora

ge

BC

F, M

onth

End

-100

0

-800

-600

-400

-2000

200

400

600

800

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Ye

ar A

vg.

2009

2010

US

Sto

rage

BC

F, M

onth

End

Page 15: May 2010 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas · CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas PAGE 4 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Price Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide

Relevant • Independent • Objective

PAGE 15

SOU

RCE

: U

.S.

DO

E.SO

URCE

: U

.S.

DO

E.

SOU

RCE

: U

.S.

DO

E.SO

URCE

: U

.S.

DO

E.

024681012141618202224

Apr

-09

Jun-

09A

ug-0

9O

ct-0

9D

ec-0

9Fe

b-10

Apr

-10

Cov

e Po

int

Elba

Isla

ndEv

eret

tN

E G

atew

ayN

eptu

ne

Eas

tern

US

LN

G I

mpo

rts

By

Faci

lity

BC

F

A to

tal o

f 18

spot

car

goes

wer

e pu

rcha

sed

in th

e fir

st fo

ur

mon

ths

of 2

010,

thre

e tim

es g

reat

er th

an th

e nu

mbe

r of

spot

car

goes

pur

chas

ed in

the

first

four

mon

ths

of 2

009.

Ea

ster

n U

S re

-gas

ifica

tion

term

inal

s re

ceiv

ed 8

3 pe

rcen

t of

tota

l spo

t car

goes

in 2

010.

024681012141618202224

Apr

-09

Jun-

09A

ug-0

9O

ct-0

9D

ec-0

9Fe

b-10

Apr

-10

Gul

f Gat

eway

Free

port

Lake

Cha

rles

Sabi

ne P

ass

Cam

eron

US

GO

M L

NG

Im

port

s B

y Fa

cilit

yB

CF

0510152025303540

Apr

-09

Jun-

09A

ug-0

9O

ct-0

9D

ec-0

9Fe

b-10

Apr

-10

Egyp

tN

iger

iaTr

inid

adN

orw

ayQ

atar

BC

F

US

LN

G I

mpo

rts

By

Ori

gin

Ove

r th

e la

st s

ix m

onth

s,

ship

men

ts fr

om Q

atar

hav

e ac

coun

ted

for 1

6 pe

rcen

t of

tota

l US

LNG

impo

rts.

02468101214

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

2008

2009

2010

Vol

ume-

Wei

ghte

d A

vera

ge L

NG

Pri

ceV

olum

e-W

eigh

ted

Ave

rage

LN

G P

rice

US$

/MM

Btu

Page 16: May 2010 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas · CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas PAGE 4 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Price Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

PAGE 16

SOU

RCE

: E

IA,

U.S

. D

OE.

SOU

RCE

: U

.S.

DO

E.

01234567

Apr

-09

Jun-

09A

ug-0

9O

ct-0

9D

ec-0

9Fe

b-10

Apr

-10

US

LN

G E

xpor

ts t

o Ja

pan

BC

F

01234567

Apr

-09

Jun-

09A

ug-0

9O

ct-0

9D

ec-0

9Fe

b-10

Apr

-10

Con

ocoP

hilli

psM

arat

hon

US

LN

G E

xpor

tsB

y E

xpo

rter

BC

F

SOU

RCE

: U

.S.

DO

E.SO

URCE

: U

.S.

DO

E.

LNG

Im

po

rte

rs in

20

10

U.S

. LN

G Im

port

ers

in 2

010

(As

of A

pril

30, 2

010)

Com

pany

Volu

me

(BC

F)%

of T

otal

LN

G Im

port

sB

G L

NG

Ser

vice

s48

.626

.8D

istr

igas

51.1

28.3

Exc

eler

ate

14.7

8.1

Stat

oil

25.9

14.3

BP

Ene

rgy

Com

pany

8.8

4.9

Tota

l Gas

& P

ower

20.2

11.2

Sem

pra

LNG

Mar

ketin

g4.

22.

3C

hevr

on U

.S.A

.4.

42.

4S

hell

NA

LNG

3.0

1.7

Tota

l18

0.9

100.

0

Can

adia

n LN

G Im

port

ers

in 2

010

(As

of M

arch

31,

201

0)

Com

pany

Volu

me

(BC

F)%

of T

otal

LN

G Im

port

sR

epso

l Ene

rgy

Can

ada

Ltd.

26.2

100

Tota

l26

.210

0

LNG

Shi

pper

s in

201

0 LN

G S

hipp

ers

to th

e U

.S. i

n 20

10 (A

s of

Apr

il 30

, 201

0)

Com

pany

Volu

me

(BC

F)%

of T

otal

LN

G

Ship

men

tsA

tlant

ic L

NG

2/3

Com

pany

5.3

2.9

Atla

ntic

LN

G C

ompa

ny18

.810

.4B

G9.

15.

0EL

NG

/BG

GM

26.2

14.5

Gas

Nat

ural

Apr

ovis

iona

mie

ntos

12.9

7.2

Atla

ntic

LN

G8.

84.

9N

iger

ia L

NG

Lim

ited

8.4

4.7

PFL

E2.

91.

6Tr

inlin

g8.

24.

5S

hell E

aste

rn L

NG

3.0

1.7

GD

F S

uez

14.1

7.8

Ras

Gas

LN

G4.

42.

4R

asG

as7.

03.

9Q

atar

Liq

uefie

d G

as C

ompa

ny L

imite

d (II

)13

.87.

6R

as L

affa

n2.

81.

5S

tato

il AS

A, R

WE

-Dea

Nor

ge A

S, H

ess

Nor

ge A

S5.

83.

2B

G G

as M

arke

ting

Ltd

3.0

1.7

Stat

oil A

SA17

.19.

4Ye

men

LN

G C

ompa

ny L

td.;

TOTA

L G

as &

P

ower

Ltd

.6.

33.

5To

tal G

as &

Pow

er L

imite

d2.

91.

6To

tal

180.

910

0.0

Page 17: May 2010 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas · CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas PAGE 4 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Price Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide

Relevant • Independent • Objective

PAGE 17

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

CAO

DC,

Bak

er H

ughe

s.SO

URCE

: C

ERI,

CAO

DC.

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

CAO

DC.

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

CAO

DC.

0

500

1,00

0

1,50

0

2,00

0

2,50

0

3,00

0 Jan-

02Ja

n-03

Jan-

04Ja

n-05

Jan-

06Ja

n-07

Jan-

08Ja

n-09

Jan-

10

WC

SBU

S

Nor

th A

mer

ica

n A

ctiv

e R

igs

Rig

s

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,00

0 Jan-

02Ja

n-03

Jan-

04Ja

n-05

Jan-

06Ja

n-07

Jan-

08Ja

n-09

Jan-

10

Act

ive

Rig

sTo

tal R

ig D

rillin

g Fl

eet

Can

adia

n R

ig F

leet

Uti

lizat

ion

Wee

kly

Ave

rag

e A

ctiv

e R

igs

Rig

s

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700 Ja

n-08

Mar

-08

Jun-

08Se

p-08

Dec

-08

Mar

-09

Jun-

09Se

p-09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

BC

AB

SK

WC

SB

Act

ive

Rig

s by

Pro

vinc

eW

eekl

y A

vera

ge

Rig

s

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

15

913

1721

2529

3337

4145

49

5-Ye

ar A

vg.

2009

2010

Wes

tern

Can

ada

Act

ive

Rig

sW

eekl

y A

vera

ge

Rig

s

Wee

k N

umbe

r

Page 18: May 2010 CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas · CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas PAGE 4 SOURCE: CERI, Platts Price Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Platts Gas Daily Price Guide

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

PAGE 18

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Bak

er H

ughe

s.SO

URC

E:

CERI

, Ba

ker

Hug

hes.

SOU

RCE:

CE

RI,

Bake

r H

ughe

s.

0

500

1,00

0

1,50

0

2,00

0

2,50

0 Jan-

02Ja

n-03

Jan-

04Ja

n-05

Jan-

06Ja

n-07

Jan-

08Ja

n-09

Jan-

10

Ons

hore

Gas

-Dire

cted

GO

M G

as-D

irect

edTo

tal O

il-D

irect

ed

Rig

s

US

Tot

al A

ctiv

e R

igs

0 20

40

60

80

100

120

140 Ja

n-02

Jan-

03Ja

n-04

Jan-

05Ja

n-06

Jan-

07Ja

n-08

Jan-

09Ja

n-10

Oil-

Dir

ecte

dG

as-D

irect

ed

US

Gul

f of

Mex

ico

Act

ive

Rig

sR

igs

0%10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

200

400

600

800

1,00

0

1,20

0

1,40

0

1,60

0

1,80

0

2,00

0

2,20

0 Jan-

02Ja

n-03

Jan-

04Ja

n-05

Jan-

06Ja

n-07

Jan-

08Ja

n-09

Jan-

10

Oil-

Dire

cted

Gas

-Dire

cted

Gas

-Dire

cted

%

US

Tot

al A

ctiv

e R

igs

Rig

s

Nor

th A

mer

ican

Rig

Act

ivit

y•A

sof

May

25,W

CSB

rigac

tivity

was

appr

oxim

atel

y14

perc

entb

elow

the

five-

year

aver

age.

•Yea

r-ove

r-yea

r,th

enu

mbe

rof

rigs

oper

atin

gin

the

WC

SBha

sin

crea

sed

by86

perc

entt

o13

0rig

s.•A

t127

perc

ent,

year

-ove

r-yea

rgro

wth

inSa

skat

chew

an’s

rigac

tivity

exce

eded

that

ofan

yot

herp

rovi

nce.

•InM

ay,t

hem

onth

lyav

erag

erig

utiliz

atio

nra

tew

as16

perc

ent,

upfro

m8

perc

enti

nM

ay20

09.

•Sas

katc

hew

anw

asth

eon

lypr

ovin

ceth

atin

crea

sed

drilli

ngac

tivity

durin

gth

em

onth

ofM

ay,w

ithth

eav

erag

enu

mbe

rof

rigs

oper

atin

gin

the

prov

ince

incr

easi

ngby

86pe

rcen

t,or

16rig

s,to

34rig

s.•M

onth

lyrig

activ

ityin

Albe

rtaan

dBr

itish

Col

umbi

ade

clin

edby

anav

erag

eof

6rig

san

d9

rigs,

resp

ectiv

ely.

•InM

ay,t

heav

erag

enu

mbe

rof

activ

erig

sin

the

US

tota

led

1,51

3rig

s,up

from

918

rigs

inth

epr

evio

usye

ar.

•Gas

-dire

cted

rigs

acco

unte

dfo

r63

perc

ento

fto

talr

igs

oper

atin

gin

the

US

durin

gM

ay.

•Yea

r-ove

r-yea

r,th

enu

mbe

rofa

ctiv

eoi

land

gas

rigs

incr

ease

dby

190

perc

ent(

354

rigs)

,and

33pe

rcen

t(23

7rig

s),r

espe

ctiv

ely.