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 Retail Cities in Asia Pacifc The new retailers in town  joneslanglasalle.com/asiapacifc

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The retail sector in Asia Pacificis witnessing rapid change and oneof the driving forces is the aggressiveexpansion of international retailersthroughout the region. Our secondedition of Retail Cities in Asia Pacifichighlights many of these new marketentrants together with other trendsshaping the retail landscape.We hope you enjoy it.

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  • Retail Cities in Asia Pacific The new retailers in town

    joneslanglasalle.com/asiapacific

  • The retail sector in Asia Pacific is witnessing rapid change and one of the driving forces is the aggressive expansion of international retailers throughout the region. Our second edition of Retail Cities in Asia Pacific highlights many of these new market entrants together with other trends shaping the retail landscape.We hope you enjoy it. Dr Jane Murray Head of Research Asia Pacific

  • 06

    10

    04

    08

    22

    02

    Contents

    Making Mall Marketing Interactive

    Redefining a Retail Network

    Retail Track Record

    Market Statistics

    Is Shopping Centre Ownership Going Global?

    City Profiles

    10 Hong Kong11 Beijing12 Shanghai13 Guangzhou14 Tokyo15 Singapore16 Bangkok17 Jakarta18 Delhi19 Mumbai20 Sydney21 Melbourne

  • Hong Kong Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou Tokyo Singapore Bangkok Jakarta Delhi Mumbai Sydney Melbourne

    7.1 15.6 20.2 10.8 37.2 5.2 8.4 9.8 22.7 19.7 4.5 4.0

    AsiaPacificisalsohometosomeoftheworlds wealthiestnations,withAustralia,HongKong, SingaporeandJapaninthetop30intermsofper capitaincome.

    Internationalluxuryandmid-rangeretailersare aggressivelygrowingtheirbusinessesinthese rapidlytransformingmarkets.

    Withrisingaffluencecomeslargescale developmentofretailstock.Acrosstheregions majorretailmarkets,primeretailstockcurrently sitsat80millionsqmandisforecasttoriseby another55millionsqminthenextfiveyears.Of this,20%willbebuiltinAsiasTierImarketsand astaggering75%or40millionsqmintheTierII marketsofChina.

    Nominal Retail Sales (Y-o-Y % Growth)

    Total Stock (mil sqm) as at end-2012 2013 to 2017 New Supply Additions as % of Stock

    Retail Investment Trends Astheretailsectorgrowsandmatures,realestateinvestorsinAsiaPacificareincreasinglyfocusingonretailassets.In2012,USD22.8billionofretailpropertywastransacted acrosstheregion.

    ThetopretailinvestmentdestinationsarecurrentlythematuremarketsofHongKong,JapanandAustralia.Inthecomingyears,wepredictthatinterestintheregionsemerging marketswillcontinuetogrowandChinawillbecomeAsiaPacificsnumberoneretailinvestmentdestinationby2020.

    JustoverhalfoftheworldspopulationlivesinAsia Pacific.Thatis3.8billionpeople,ofwhich1.7billion currentlyliveincities.

    Theregionsurbanpopulationissettoriseto 2billionbytheendofthedecade.Combinethat withrapideconomicgrowthinmanycountriesand theresultisameteoricriseinwealthlevels.

    2011 Population (mil)

    9.1% 11.9% 9.0%-1.1%

    16.7%

    TheJonesLangLaSalleAsiaPacificResearchteamprovidesin-depthcoverageof42retailmarketsin11countries.

    +64%

    1.77.5

    +46%

    4.5

    +28%

    3.6

    +3%

    n/a

  • Hong Kong Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou Tokyo Singapore Bangkok Jakarta Delhi Mumbai Sydney Melbourne

    7.1 15.6 20.2 10.8 37.2 5.2 8.4 9.8 22.7 19.7 4.5 4.0

    03MarketStatistics

    Market Statistics

    SourcesCityPopulation:WorldUrbanizationProspects,UnitedNations:The2011RevisionRetailsales:variousgovernmentwebsitesRetailstockandsupplyadditions:JonesLangLaSalle(RealEstateIntelligenceService),4Q12

    Notes Retailsalesgrowth:BangkokreferstoThailand,Sydney(NewSouthWales)andMelbourne(Victoria).FullyearfigureforShanghai,Decemberfortherest.Stock/supplyfiguresrefertoprimeretailcentresforAsiancitiesandregional/sub-regionalcentresforAustraliancities.

    -1.5%22.6% 14.9%

    n/a n/a 0.9% -0.3%

    +15%

    1.8

    +19%

    1.71.9

    +22%+6%

    3.02.1

    +39% +12%

    2.5

    +43%

    1.3

  • Making Mall Marketing InteractiveThe creative application of modern technology offers new opportunities for engaging customers and building marketing partnerships.

  • 05MakingMallMarketingInteractive

    Shoppingcentreshavealwaysbeenuniquevenuesforconnectingbrandsandconsumers.Today,advancesinmobiletechnologyarediversifyingthenatureofthatrelationship.Ownerscannowconsidertheirretailassetasbothatheatreofexperientialinteractionandasocialmediaplatform.

    DuringChristmas2012,shoppersattwoMosaicmalls,anewretailcentreconceptthatisbeinglaunchedacrossChina,werepresentedwithanewformofmarketingpromotioninteractivevideogames.IntheMosaicDalianMallandMosaicChangshaMall,theinitiativedrewsizeablecrowdsofshopperseagertoparticipate.

    Largescreenswereerectedinprominentpositionsandcustomerswereinvitedtotakepartinalivevideogamecontrolledviatheirmobilephones.Shoppers,whoparticipated,shotfireworksontoascreentotargetvariousmovingprizes.Uponwinningaprize,competitorscompletedashortsurveyontheirphoneandmallstaffdistributedthegift.

    Forparticipants,theimmediateactivationusingascannedQRcodeandmulti-uservideogameformatmeanttheydidnothavetowaitinlinetoplay.Viralappealwasalsocreatedbytheremotecontrolnatureofthegame,asplayersinvitedfriendsandcolleaguesbySMSmessagestocomeandjoinin.

    Theobjectiveofinteractivepromotionslikethisistodifferentiateamallinanincreasinglycompetitiveenvironmentandextractmorevaluefromthecommonareasofamall,saysMarcusDee,AssociateDirector,RetailAssetManagement,GreaterChina,JonesLangLaSalle.Entertainingshoppersaddsrealvaluetotheirexperience.Forowners,itcreatesnewadvertisingchannelsandbrandpartnershipopportunities,plusthecapabilitytocollectconsumerdatainanon-invasiveway.

    InteractivemarketingiswellsuitedtoAsiaPacific,wheremallsarepopularleisuredestinationsandtechnologyadoptionratesarehigh.China,forexample,isnowtheworldslargestmarketforactiveAndroidandiOSsmartphonesandtablets,accordingtoa2013reportbyresearchfirmFlurryAnalytics,makingtheiruseevenmorerelevanttothemallindustry.

    Thetrendhasglobalroots.In2009,afterthefinancialcrisis,shoppingmallsintheUnitedStatesbeganlookingfortechnology-basedmechanismstoengageshoppers.Multimediaandgamingeventsgrewinpopularitybecausetheycanbetailoredtoeachmalllayout.Appliedsoftwareenablesownerstoupdateadsandpromotionsinrealtimeandgarnerkeydata,whilecustomersenjoythecompetitionandpost-gamescorerankings.

    TheSanFrancisco-basedInternationalExperientialMarketingAssociation(IEMA)believestechnologicallyenlightenedandempoweredconsumersnowdesireexperiencesthatarepersonallyrelevant,memorable,sensory,emotionalandmeaningful.TheIEMAsaysmarketingthatengagespeoplewithindividualexperiencesthathavetangiblebenefitsisafundamentalbasisforthefutureofmarketingstrategy.

    MichaelYuann,founderofShanghai-basedGameConcourse,whichdevelopedthesoftwareforthegamingeventsinDalianandChangsha,believestheopportunitiesforinteractivemallmarketingarestillintheirinfancy.

    Thisisanewfrontier,bothforthesoftwareandgamingindustriesandmallowners,thatridesonthetailsofsocialnetworkapplications,saysYuann.Totheuser,theobjectiveissimple:entertainment.Buttherangeofinteractiveadvertisingandmarketingcapabilitiesbeingopenedupmakethistypeofpromotionsoattractive.

    GameConcourseaimstorolloutnewgameformatsindifferentmalllocations,andisworkingwithJonesLangLaSalleonthenextgenerationofconsumerinteraction.Wewanttouseinteractivemarketingtoaddevengreatervalueformallowners,saysMarcusDee.

    Thenewprojectwillembedseveraldisplayscreensinmallsthatcustomerscanconstantlyinteractwithastheyarewalkingthroughthepublicareas.Inthisway,itspossibletograduallygatherdatathatbuildspicturesaboutconsumerbehaviourandbuyinghabits.Thisinformationcanbeusedtodrivenewmarketinginitiatives,saysDee.Atthesametime,interactiveadvertisingcontentcangenerateextrarevenueandhelpbuildpartnershipsbetweenmalls,brandsandoutsidesponsors.

    The objective of interactive promotions like this is to differentiate a mall in an increasingly competitive

    environment and extract more value from the common

    areas of a mallMarcus Dee

    Associate Director, Retail Asset Management, Greater China Jones Lang LaSalle

  • Is Shopping Centre Ownership Going Global?Retail property investors are eyeing opportunities beyond their core markets, and the fast-growing economies of Asia Pacific are top of the shopping list.

    JonesLangLaSallesoldthedebtsecuredoverTopRydeCity(Sydney)forUSD359milliontoBlackstoneonayieldof7.3%.

  • 07IsShoppingCentreOwnershipGoingGlobal?

    Theglobalisationofretailbrandsinrecentyearsishelpingtoreshapethewayownersandoperatorsofretailpropertybehave.WesternretailersarecontinuingtoextendtheirreachtotapintostrengtheningconsumerdemandacrossAsiaPacific,withsalesgrowthoftheirAsianportfoliosfrequentlyexceedingtheirhomemarkets.Thistrendisnotjustoneway;first-moverAsianbrandsaresimultaneouslyenteringmatureretailmarketsbeyondtheregion.Astheseambitiousretailersembracetransnationalopportunities,willtheownersandoperatorsofshoppingmallsfollowsuit?

    ThestrengthandunderlyinggrowthprospectsofretailmarketsinkeyAsianeconomiesisattractiveforinvestors.JonesLangLaSallesGlobalCapitalFlowsresearchillustratesthatinternationalcapitalisbeinginvestedtotakeadvantageofprojectedgrowth.Since2010,approximately35%ofthetotalUS$65bnofretailtransactionsinAsiaPacificwasundertakenbynon-domesticparties,ofwhich29%wascomprisedofbuyersfromoutsidetheregion.Thisinvestmenthaslargelytakentheformofinternationalfundspartneringwithdomesticorregionaldevelopersandowners.

    GivenAsiasongoingretailsectorboomandtheinternationalisationofretailersandcapital,agreaterpushintotheregionbymajorretailpropertyoperatorsmayhavebeenexpected.Whilsttheglobalheavyweights,suchasLendLeaseandSimonPropertyGroup,dohaveapresenceinAsia,itissmallrelativetothemarketandeachoftheirrespectiveportfolios,yetWestfieldisconspicuousbyitsabsence.

    TheprimarychallengesforspecialistoperatorsenteringAsiaPacificmarketsincludethedifficultyinaccessingappropriatestock,regulatoryrestrictions,findingappropriatelocalpartners,thehighcostofsettinguplargelocalteamstomanageahandsonrealestatesectorandtherequiredcriticalmassofmallstojustifyhighset-upcosts,saysDavidRaven,RegionalDirectorofRetailInvestment,AsiaPacificCapitalMarkets,JonesLangLaSalle.TherelativepricingofAsianmarkets,thecapitalstructuresoftheseoperatorsandthesheerweightofcapitalrequiredarealsoinhibitingfactors.

    Despitethesechallenges,itswidelybelievedthattheexperienceandexpertiseofglobalretailoperatorscouldbenefitcertainmarketsintheregion.ThesegroupsarealsoobservingtheapproachesofexperiencedAsiandevelopers,suchasCapitaLand,SMGroup,SwireandLippo,whohavesuccessfullydevelopedretailassetsacrossborderswithintheregion.

    Evolvingmarketdynamicscouldcatalyseactivitybylargeretailoperators.AsthedevelopmentpipelineinmostAsiancountriesisdelivered,greatercompetitionwillexistbetweenmalls.Heightenedcompetitionwillgiveconsumersextrachoiceandhighlightthedifferencesbetweentheleadingandlesssuccessfulmallsineachmarket.Overtime,thiswilldrivetherequirementforspecialistrepositioningandmanagerialskillstoachieveandmaintainsuccess.

    Asmarketsmatureacrosstheregion,shoppingcentresdevelopedorrepositionedbyexperiencedretailspecialistsareexpectedtooutperformthecompetition,saysDavidRaven.Weforeseeanincreasingtrendofassetlevelstrategicjointventuresbeingestablishedbetweenownersandoperatorswithinternationalretailexpertiseandrelationshipswithbothglobalretailersandglobalcapital.

    AsiaPacificsfastestgrowingmarkets,suchasChina,offerconsiderablescopeforretailassetpartnerships.Othercountriesarealsoattractinginterest.LendLeasesrecentannouncementthatitispartneringwithMalaysiandeveloperSPSetiatoopentheSetiaCityMallnearKualaLumpurin2013couldbeasignofthingstocomeacrosstheregion.Itisexpectedthatglobalretailoperatorscoulddeliversuperiorreturnsforinvestorsandpartnersthroughleveragingtheirrelationshipswithinternationalretailers,operatingmallswithgreaterefficiencyandutilisingtheirspecialistexperienceindesigningandrepositioningmalls.GrowingapresenceintheregioncouldalsostrengthenrelationshipswithambitiousAsianbrandsthatcanbeexportedtotheglobaloperatorscoreportfolios.

    As markets mature across the region, shopping centres

    developed or repositioned by experienced retail specialists

    are expected to outperform the competition.

    David RavenRegional Director of Retail Investment, Asia Pacific Capital Markets

    Jones Lang LaSalle

  • Redefining a Retail NetworkThe increasingly competitive nature of retail real estate in Asia Pacific means acquiring desirable sites can be a challenging process.

  • 09RedefiningaRetailNetwork

    TheevidenceofAsiaPacificsconsumerboomisaroundus.Retaildevelopmentisgalvanisingmanycitiesandmultiple-channeladvertisingbombardsconsumers.Tomeetdiversifyingdemand,globalanddomesticretailersaredevisingstrategiestoenhancetheirmarketpenetration.Butwhetherabrandisrollingoutnewstoresoradaptingformatstomeetchangingmarketcontexts,retailnetworkplanningisanevolvingprocess.

    TherearecertainkeysupplysidechallengesinAsiaPacificthatimpactretaildecisions,particularlyincentrallocations.Theseincludeshoppingcentrewaitinglists,risingrents,short-termleases,lackofsecurityoftenure,highfit-outcostsandcapitaldepreciation,saysIainMackenzie,HeadofSolutionsDevelopment,AsiaPacific,JonesLangLaSalle.Thesefactorsarecontributingtothecomplexityofshapingaretailnetwork.

    US-basedlifestylebrandTommyBahamaenteredAsiaPacificwithfouroutletsinAustralia,andin2012openeddebutstoresinMacau,HongKongandSingapore.TokyoandYokohamawillfollowin2013.Abigchallengehasbeenfindingsufficientspace.IntheUnitedStates,ouraveragestoresizeis3,000-4,000squarefeet.InAsia,ourminimumrequirementis2,500squarefeet,butthatishardtoachieveasmallunitsaresmaller,saysRaymonddeMalherbe,SeniorManagingDirector,TommyBahamaInternational.

    Asanewbrandtotheregion,itisfocusingonhigh-trafficlocations.WeneedspacesthatenableustopositionourselvessotheTommyBahamalifestylecanbeeasilyunderstoodandenjoyed.Weinvestalotoftimeandeffortinourwindowandstoredisplaystopresentourproductlines,saysBrianPearce,ManagingDirector,TommyBahamaAsia.

    Storeformatalsoinfluencesthelocation.TommyBahamasstoreinWanchai,HongKongsellsmensandwomensapparelandhomeaccessoriesandfeaturesabarandcaf,andtheGinzaretailstoreinTokyowillincludetwobarsandarestaurant.TheHongKongretailandbarconceptisaprototype,andwewouldliketodomoreofthose,saysPearce.Thisformatisbettersuitedtoastreetlocation,butaswebecomemoreestablishedwewanttohavemultiplestoresinkeycities,andwillcreateformatstofiteachlocation.

    Withanestablishedpresencein22countriesacrossAsiaPacific,thechallengesfacingStandardCharteredBankaredifferent.Asthebankingindustryrespondstorapidchangesintechnologyandconsumerbehaviour,retailbanknetworksareassumingadifferentrole.

    Thebankingindustryisverydynamic,andbanksarechangingtomeettheneedsofmarkets,consumersandregulators.Retailbanksnowarefocusedonsalesandincomenotjustservice,sothereisaneedtorepositionandresizetocreatenetworkassetsthathaveaninterconnectionwitheachother,saysDavidRees,HeadofProjectManagementandDesign,GroupRealEstate,StandardCharteredBank.

    Asianconsumersaremovingtowardsdebitandcreditandawayfromcash,andinsomecountriesmobilemoneyenablingfundstobetransferredusingmobilephonesisgainingtraction.Consequently,thelong-heldnotionofabankbranchofferingtellersandATMsisbeingchallenged.Newbankformatshaveafocusoninteractivetechnologyandadviceandconsultancyservicesratherthantraditionaltellertransactions,saysRees.

    Locationdecisionsarebeingreassessedaccordingly.Forthespaceswewant,whicharetypicallybetween1000-1500squarefeet,wearecompetingwithconsumerbrandsthatsellalotofproduct,saysRees.Sowemustbenchmarkourbranchneedsagainstbrandsthatcanmovequickly,ratherthanagainstotherbankswhomustseekthesameregulatoryapprovalsaswedobeforeopeningabranch.

    There are certain key supply side challenges in Asia Pacific

    that impact retail decisions and contribute to the complexity

    of shaping a branch retail network. These factors include

    shopping centre waiting lists, rising rents, short-term leases,

    lack of security of tenure, high fit-out costs and capital depreciation,

    Iain Mackenzie Head of Solutions Development, Asia Pacific

    Jones Lang LaSalle

  • Abercrombie&FitchAlexanderMcQueenBlackFleecebyBrooksBrothersBreitlingCosForever21HackettHollisterTommyBahamaVeraWang

    New RetaileRs iN 2012

    Hong Kong

    Note:HongKongRetailreferstoHongKongsoverallPrimeShoppingCentreandHighStreetretailmarkets.Source:JonesLangLaSalle

    Asset PerformAnceHIGH STREET SHOP RENTS RISE

    HighStreetshoprentsgrewby2.4%q-o-qin4Q12.

    SECONDARY LOCATIONS SEE STRONGER DEMAND

    Highrentsincoreareascontinuedtodriveleasingdemandintofringestreetsandnon-coreareas;rentsinoverallprimeshoppingcentresincreasedby2.1%q-o-qin4Q12and1.8%q-o-qinpremiumprimeshoppingcentres.

    CAPITAL INFLOWS LIFT TRANSACTION VOLUMES

    Investmentactivitypicked-upnoticeablyin4Q12onthebackofcapitalinflowsarisingfromfurtherstimulusintheUSandtheannouncementofmoreausteritymeasuresinthecitysresidentialsector.

    12 montH oUtLooK

    RetailsalesareexpectedtobewellsupportedbythesustainedgrowthinMainlandChinesevisitorarrivals,whichgrewby24.2%y-o-yin2012.

    MAINLAND CHINESE VISITORS TO SUPPORT RETAIL SALES

    Astrongergrowingdomesticeconomyshouldlendsupporttothecitysretailingmarketin2013.

    IMPROVING ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

    MODERATE GROWTH EXPECTED IN RETAIL RENTS

    ThechangingprofileofMainlandChinesetouristsislikelytoresultinmoremoderateretailsalesgrowth.Assuch,weexpectretailrentstorisein2013albeitatamoremoderatepace,intherangeof0-10%.

    finAnciAL indices

    demAnd

    sUPPLy

    Sales growth of 9.8% in 2012 suggests Hong Kongs retail sector is in vibrant health. One of the worlds premier shopping destinations, Hong Kong is a magnet for global brands targeting affluent local shoppers and tourists, especially from Mainland China. Many retailers now view their city flagships as showrooms for expanding into China. Luxury brands and high-street stores are locked in competition for prime sites at The Landmark, Harbour City, Times Square and ifc malls, plus high-traffic locations on Queens Road in Central and Canton Road in Tsimshatsui. Continued rental growth in downtown Hong Kong has resulted in an overspill into previously non-core areas. Clusters of luxury and fashion brands are emerging on Wellington Street in Central, Johnston Road in Wanchai and Peking Road in Tsimshatsui, while fashion retailers are also moving into malls in decentralised areas like Shatin and Tuen Mun.

    retAiL stocK comPLetions

    Completionsinthousandsqm

    FutureSupply

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

    14610 99 29 76 24

    VCity,anew269,000sqftshoppingcentreinTuenMunwascompletedin4Q12andisscheduledtoopenin2Q13.

    Anon-primeshoppingcentreinRepulseBay,ThePulse(147,693sqft),completedin4Q12andisscheduledtoopenin1Q13.

    Retailsalesgrowthimprovedin4Q12,rising7.6%y-o-ycomparedwith5.8%y-o-yin3Q12.

    Growthintouristarrivalsmoderated,downto15.1%y-o-yin4Q12from17.7%growthrecordedin3Q12.

    Primeshoppinglocationscontinuedtodrawconsiderableinterestfromluxuryinternationalbrands.

    RENTAL INFORMATION

    High Street ShopsRental Value^ HKD 709.3 psf pm

    Stage in Cycle Rents Rising No. of Quarters Since Last Trough 15

    ^net,onGFA

    Overall Prime Shopping CentresRental Value^ HKD 149.6 psf pm

    Stage in Cycle Rents Rising No. of Quarters Since Last Trough 13

    ^net,onLFA

    12-MONTH OUTLOOK

    Rental ValueHighStreetShops

    Capital ValueHighStreetShops

    4Q 08 4Q

    09 4Q

    10 4Q11 4Q12

    240

    200

    280

    160

    120

    80

    RVIndex(PremiumPrimeShoppingCentres)

    RVIndex(HighStreetShops)

    RVIndex(OverallPrimeShoppingCentres)

    CVIndex(HighStreetShop)

    IndexBase4Q08=100

    LEASING TRANSACTIONS INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONSLongchamp8,000sqft,SilvercordGAP 15,800sqft,MPMBreitling10,000sqft,517-519HennessyRoad

    Park Hotel Shopping Arcade(70,000sqft)inTsimshatsuisoldforHKD2.2billionKatherine House(49,500sqft)inTsimshatsuisoldforHKD780millionLaguna Plaza(163,611sqft)inLamTimsoldforHKD1.5billion

    NOTABLE DEALS IN 2H12

    4Q 2012 Highlights10RetailCities|HongKong

  • AlexanderWangAmericanApparelBakerCosForever21HarmanHollisterPatagoniaSpringfieldToysRUs

    New RetaileRs iN 2012

    Beijing

    Note:BeijingRetailreferstoBeijingsUrbanPrimeretailmarket.Source:JonesLangLaSalle

    Asset PerformAnceSTRONG RETAILER EXPANSION

    Retailsalesincreased11.9%y-o-yinDecember.Retailersmaintainedastrongpaceofexpansionthroughout2012.

    LANDLORDS FOCUS ON IMPROVING TENANT MIXES

    Experiencedlandlordsexecutedmoreeffectiverentrevenuestrategiesbyimprovingtheirtenantmixes.Theyreplacedlow-profit-margintenantswithtenantswithalimitedpresenceinothermallstodifferentiatethemselves.

    CORE & URBAN MARKET RENTS RISE

    Atend-2012,averagerentsintheurban&coremarketsrose8.7%&10.1%y-o-y,respectively.

    12 montH oUtLooK

    Averageneteffectiverentswillcontinuegrowingatadoubledigitratein2013.

    RENTAL GROWTH LIKELY SIMILAR TO 2012

    Areboundinretailsalesisexpectedin2013inlightofimprovingmacro-economicdata,fallingcreditcardfeesandlowertariffsonimportedgoods.

    A REBOUND IN RETAIL SALES EXPECTED

    NEW SUPPLY CONCENTRATED IN PRIME LOCATIONS

    Alargeportionofnewurbanprojectsin2013willbeinprimelocations.Meanwhilethesuburbanmarketisexpectedtobecomeanemerginghot-spot.

    finAnciAL indices

    RENTAL INFORMATION

    Urban Prime Shopping Centres Rental Value^ RMB 762 psm pm

    Stage in Cycle Rents Rising No. of Quarters Since Last Trough 12

    ^neteffective,onNLA

    12-MONTH OUTLOOK

    Rental ValueUrbanPrimeShoppingCentres

    Capital ValueUrbanPrimeShoppingCentres

    demAnd

    sUPPLy

    The evolution of Beijings retail landscape has closely followed the redevelopment of the Chinese capital both before and since the 2008 Olympics. Previously overshadowed by Shanghai in terms of retail cachet, Beijing is now pivotal to the China expansion strategies of international retailers. An entire spectrum of consumer brands is now delivering extravagant campaigns targeting discerning shoppers in both downtown and decentralised areas.Well-managed malls in large mixed-use developments, such as Seasons Place, Oriental Plaza, Wanda Plaza, Solana and China Central Place, offer appealing locations for both brands and shoppers. Hip shoppers are attracted to The Village at Sanlitun, a central Beijing precinct offering edgy consumer brand stores, eclectic dining and entertainment. Newer shopping centres, such as Indigo in Jiuxinqiao and Xinao Shopping Centre in the 2008 Olympic Park, attract a mixed clientele, including younger consumers an increasingly influential China demographic.

    LEASING TRANSACTIONS

    Forever 212,500sqm,BeijingAPMEsprit 1,300sqm,SolanaApple2,300sqm,BeijingAPM

    ParkviewGreen,ahigh-endshoppingmallintheCBDwaslaunchedin4Q12,adding56,000sqm(GFA)tothemarket.

    ZhuozhanShoppingCentre(GFA300,000sqm),adepartmentstore,openedintheWestChanganStreetsubmarket.

    F&B,fashion,jewellery,andhouseholdretailerswerethelargestcontributorstonettake-upin4Q12.

    Fashionretailerswerekeentointroducemoresub-brandstocreatemoresalesopportunities.

    During4Q12,luxurybrandspreferredopeningwatchstorestoapparelstores.

    INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONSNo major investment deals in 2H12.

    Completionsinthousandsqm

    retAiL stocK comPLetions

    FutureSupply

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

    386772 767 236 520 335

    160

    140

    120

    100

    804Q

    08 4Q

    09 4Q

    10 4Q11 4Q12

    RentalValueIndex

    CapitalValueIndex

    IndexBase4Q08=100

    NOTABLE DEALS IN 2H12

    4Q 2012 Highlights11RetailCities|Beijing

  • 10CorsoComoAlexanderMcQueenCarolinaHerreraDeBeersForever21HarryWinstonPeutereyVeraWang

    New RetaileRs iN 2012

    Shanghai

    Note:ShanghaiRetailreferstoShanghaisOverallPrimeretailmarket.Source:JonesLangLaSalle

    Asset PerformAnceSLOWER RETAIL SALES GROWTH LIMITS RENTAL INCREASE

    Onalike-for-likebasis,rentsinprimeanddecentralisedmarketsincreasedby4.1%and5.5%y-o-y,respectively.

    VACANCY RISES IN SELECT SHOPPING CENTRES

    Vacancyratesincreasedmarginallyinsomeexistingshoppingcentresasseveralelectronicsstoresandlarge-formatrestaurantsclosed.

    12 montH oUtLooK

    Inaslowergrowthenvironment,varianceofstoreperformanceislikelytoincreaseduetolocationsandlevelofexperienceofoperators.

    PERFORMANCE GAP AMONGST RETAILERS TO CONTINUE

    Asconsumersremainsensitivetoprices,rentalgrowthislikelytobeslowthrough1H13.Somemildpick-upmaytakeplacein2H13ifpro-consumptionpoliciesareaggressivelyrolledouttogeneratehighersales.

    SUBDUED RENTAL GROWTH EXPECTED IN 1H13

    STRONGER PRE-COMMITMENT FOR NEW PRIME SUPPLY

    Thegapinpre-commitmentperformancebetweenprimeanddecentralisediswidening,leadingtomorepotentialnewcompletionswithhighvacancy.

    finAnciAL indices

    demAnd

    Chinas most exciting and diverse retail city boasts sophisticated shopping on both sides of the Huangpu River that bifurcates Shanghai. In downtown Puxi, international and local brands vie for prime storefronts along the Nanjing Road and Huaihai Road thoroughfares. Luxury brand flagships are also magnetised to premium locations in Xintiandi and the restored heritage mansions along the riverfront Bund. Chic Shanghai mall shopping is popular, especially for high-end fashion brands in the smart surrounds of Plaza 66, Rel and Hong Kong Plaza. Across the river, Pudongs Super Brand Mall and ifc Mall offer designer shopping and smart dining in the Lujiazui commercial district noted for its dramatic skyline. Shanghais vast urban sprawl also offers plentiful retail development opportunities in decentralised areas, both east and west of the Huangpu River, and in the many satellite towns that are now connected by the citys extensive subway network.

    retAiL stocK comPLetions

    Completionsinthousandsqm

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

    35200 278 55 71 385

    FutureSupply

    RENTAL INFORMATION

    Overall Prime Shopping Centres Rental Value^ RMB 48.5 psm per day

    Stage in Cycle Rents Rising No. of Quarters Since Last Trough 14

    ^net,onNLA

    12-MONTH OUTLOOK

    Rental ValueOverallPrimeShoppingCentres

    Capital ValueOverallPrimeShoppingCentres

    sUPPLy

    RelDepartmentStore(45,700sqm)andTakashimayaDepartmentStore(61,000sqm)werecompletedin4Q12.

    Inthedecentralisedmarket,threecommunitymallsopened.

    GrowingcompetitionfromonlineretailforShanghaisincreasinglyprice-sensitiveconsumers.

    Forshoppingcentres,thegapbetweenthemarketwinnersandloserswidenedin4Q12.

    InternationalbrandscontinuetoopeninShanghaibutareincreasinglysensitivetotheprofitpotentialofeachstore.

    RentalValueIndex

    CapitalValueIndex

    IndexBase4Q08=100

    130

    120

    110

    150

    140

    100

    904Q

    08 4Q

    09 4Q

    10 4Q11 4Q12

    LEASING TRANSACTIONS INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS

    10 Corso Como3,000sqm,WheelockSquareForever 21 7,000sqm,TheBundPlazaAbercrombie & Fitch800sqm,JingAnKerryCentre

    Plaza 353 (40,000sqm)soldforRMB2.37billionChannel One (42,000sqm)soldforRMB1.46billion

    NOTABLE DEALS IN 2H12

    4Q 2012 Highlights12RetailCities|Shanghai

  • CaliforniaFitnessDaisoJapanIppudoKiehlsMaxValuMuji

    New RetaileRs iN 2012

    Guangzhou

    Note:GuangzhouRetailreferstoGuangzhousOverallPrimeretailmarket.Source:JonesLangLaSalle

    Asset PerformAnceINVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS LIMITED IN 4Q12

    Thelimitedavailabilityofsaleablestockandfirmaskingpricesdemandedbyvendorsresultedinfewtransactionsbeingrecordedduringthequarter.

    FEW LANDLORDS SOUGHT TO INCREASE RENTS

    Overallrentsedgedupmarginallyin4Q12by0.5%q-o-q,closetothe0.4%q-o-qgrowthrecordedin3Q12.

    CAPITAL VALUES GROW

    Coupledwiththelowerinterestrateenvironment,marketyieldsremainedbroadlyunchangedfromthepreviousquarter,resultingincapitalvaluesgainingby0.5%q-o-qin4Q12.

    12 montH oUtLooK

    Anyupsideonrentswilllikelyberestrictedbytherecordvolumeofnewsupplyduetobecompletedin2013.Assuch,weexpectrentstogrowbyafurther6-7%in2013.

    RECORD NEW SUPPLY LIKELY LIMITS RENTAL UPSIDE

    ThelatesteconomicindicatorssuggestthatChinaseconomyhastroughedandislikelytogrowataslightlyfasterratein2013,whichshouldhelpunderpinretailsalesgrowthanddemandforretailingpremises.

    IMPROVING ECONOMY SHOULD AID RETAIL SALES GROWTH

    INVESTMENT YIELDS TO REMAIN BROADLY STABLE

    Investmentvolumesareunlikelytodiffergreatlyfrom2012.Marketyieldsareexpectedtoremainbroadlystablekeepinganymovementincapitalvalueslargelyinlinewithrents.

    finAnciAL indices

    demAnd

    sUPPLy

    The capital of southern Chinas Guangdong province, Guangzhou continues to benefit from the massive urban development programme undertaken before the 2010 Asian Games. Greatly enhanced infrastructure citywide has been accompanied by the opening of a handful of prime retail centres. Global and local retailers are also attracted to Guangzhou by its strong consumer spending combined with a close proximity and easy travel access to Hong Kong that have helped raise brand awareness.The emerging riverside district known as Zhujiang New Town is an appealing location for retailers because of its collection of new luxury hotels, premium offices, dining and entertainment. The Mall of the World, is scheduled to open here in 2013. Elsewhere in a city famed historically for its street market culture, the top malls are located in the Tianhe CBD.

    RENTAL INFORMATION

    Overall Prime Shopping Centres Rental Value^ RMB 446 psm pm

    Stage in Cycle Rents Slowing No. of Quarters Since Last Trough 14

    ^net,onGFA

    12-MONTH OUTLOOK

    Rental ValueOverallPrimeShoppingCentres

    Capital ValueOverallPrimeShoppingCentres

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

    405 302 120 290 541

    AoyuanPlaza(90,000sqm),locatedinPanyudistrict,wastheonlynewsupplytobecompletedin4Q12.

    Aslowdowninretailsalesgrowthcurbedleasingactivity.

    Inspiteofaslowingretailmarket,somewell-knownretailersshowedconfidenceinthegrowthofthemarket,committingtonewstores.

    TheremainingvoidinthenewlycompletedAoyuanPlazapushedtheoverallmarketvacancyrateupto3.1%byend-4Q12.

    LEASING TRANSACTIONS INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS

    No major investment deals in 2H12.Sony2,800sqm,TaiKooHuiZara 4,300sqm,RockSquareJusco 25,300sqm,RockSquare

    retAiL stocK comPLetions

    Completionsinthousandsqm

    FutureSupply

    RentalValueIndex

    CapitalValueIndex

    IndexBase4Q08=100

    100

    90

    80

    70

    130

    120

    110

    604Q

    08 4Q

    09 4Q

    10 4Q11 4Q12

    NOTABLE DEALS IN 2H12

    4Q 2012 Highlights13RetailCities|Guangzhou

  • BillsKennel&SchmengerLePaindeJoelRobuchonRebeccaMinkoffTheConranShopKitchen

    New RetaileRs iN 2012

    TokyoFew cities can compete with Tokyo for the colour, vibrancy and sheer sense of theatre of its shopping experience. One of the worlds most famous shopping cities, the Japanese capital offers an alluring mix of grand malls, large department stores, sumptuously designed brand flagships and boutiques.Tokyos vast size means its shopping landscape is sub-divided into distinctive districts.Ginza is a refined, upmarket area where brand stores are interspersed between art galleries, restaurants and cafes.Roppongi combines clusters of offices and deluxe hotels with a pulsing nightlife and Roppongi Hills, one of Tokyos most popular malls. Young consumers head to Shibuya and Shinjuku districts, famed for their large departments stores and bright neon street advertising. Omotesandos offbeat street fashions appeal to youthful hipsters and tourists, whileTokyo Bayslarge shopping malls offering varied dining and entertainment options magnetises families on weekends.

    Note:TokyoRetailreferstotheGinzaandOmotesandoPrimeretailmarket.Nohistoricaland/orforecaststockdataavailableforTokyo.Source:JonesLangLaSalle

    Asset PerformAncePRIME RETAIL RENTS RISE 0.5% Q-O-Q IN 4Q12

    CAPITAL VALUES EDGE HIGHER

    Atend-4Q12,rentsforprimeretailspaceinTokyoincreased0.5%q-o-q,reflectinganincreaseinrentsforspaceonsomehigherfloors.

    Stronginvestordemandunderpinnedgrowthincapitalvaluesof0.5%q-o-qin4Q12.

    12 montH oUtLooK

    Inlinewithanimprovingeconomicoutlook,rentsshouldrisemoderatelyin2013.

    MODEST GROWTH IN RENTS EXPECTED

    Theretailsectormayreceiveanaddedboostfromarecentlypassedstimuluspackageintendedtospureconomicactivityandcreatejobs.

    ECONOMIC STIMULUS LIKELY TO SUPPORT RETAIL SECTOR

    finAnciAL indices

    RENTAL INFORMATION

    Ginza & Omotesando Prime Street Shops Rental Value^ JPY 63,243

    per tsubo per month Stage in Cycle Rents Rising

    No. of Quarters Since Last Trough 1^gross,onNLA

    12-MONTH OUTLOOK

    Rental ValueGinza&OmotesandoPrimeStreetShops

    Capital ValueGinza&OmotesandoPrimeStreetShops

    demAnd

    sUPPLy

    RedevelopmentoftheformerHanaeMoriBuildingsiteintheOmotesandoareaisdueforcompletioninMarch2013.

    TheGinza6-chome10DistrictRedevelopmentProject,a13-storeybuilding,isexpectedtobeginconstructionin2014.

    In4Q12,salesforlarge-scaleretailstoresdeclinedforthesecondconsecutivequarter,down0.5%y-o-y.

    Theconsumerconfidenceindexcontinuestobeweak,decliningforthefourthconsecutivemonthinDecember.

    Consumersremainconcernedovertheeconomy,partlyduetoweakexports.

    RentalValueIndex

    CapitalValueIndex

    IndexBase4Q08=100

    120

    100

    80

    604Q

    08 4Q

    09 4Q

    10 4Q11 4Q12

    LEASING TRANSACTIONS INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS

    Tokyu Plaza Harajuku Omotesando (11,368sqm)soldforJPY45billionG-Bldg. Omotesando (1,508sqm)soldforJPY5.85billionOmotesando Gates Building (1,300sqm)soldforJPY4.3billion

    Uniqlo 9,990sqm,GinzaKomatsuBuildingEmporio Armani 463sqm,OakOmotesandoCoach 600sqm,OakOmotesando

    NOTABLE DEALS IN 2H12

    4Q 2012 Highlights14RetailCities|Tokyo

  • A.Lange&SohneCarvenCostaCoffeeCrate&BarrelJLindebergPhilipSteinSmoothieKingStellaMcCartneyTommyBahamaToryBurch

    New RetaileRs iN 2012

    SingaporeSingapore is an aspirational shopping destination for visitors from across Asia Pacific and worldwide, in addition to boasting strong domestic purchasing power. This appeal is recognised by the tourism board, which heavily promotes its world-class malls and annual Great Singapore Sale. Top of the shopping list for locals and tourists is Orchard Road, an iconic strip of designer boutiques and glitzy malls, such as Ion Orchard, Paragon and Wisma Atria. Beyond downtown, Singapores retail scene is diversifying. The redevelopment of Marina Bay into an office, shopping and entertainment district features The Shoppes at Marina Bay Sands, a smart mall offering luxury boutiques and emerging labels. Nearby, the Suntec City Mall adjacent to the Suntec City Convention Centre has received a major revamp. Retailers are also tapping into domestic demand in decentralised areas, such as Dhoby Ghaut, and new shopping centres in suburban locations.

    Note:SingaporeRetailreferstoSingaporesPrime,SuburbanandMarinaretailmarkets.Source:JonesLangLaSalle

    Asset PerformAnceRENTS REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE

    TheMarinasubmarketregisteredamarginaldeclineof0.1%q-o-q,whiletheOrchardandSuburbansubmarketswereunchanged.

    AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUES HOLD FIRM

    Transactionvolumesdeclinedin4Q12,atraditionallyslowinvestmentperiod,whileaveragecapitalvaluesremainedflatsupportedbystrongdomesticliquidityandalowinterestrateenvironment.

    12 montH oUtLooK

    Theriseinbusinesscosts,attributabletoSingaporesstrongcurrencyandtheimplementationofthedependencyratioceilingon1July2012forforeignworkersintheservicessector,couldcapfurtherrentincreases.

    RISING BUSINESS COSTS COULD CAP RENTAL GROWTH

    Thelowunemploymentrateandimprovingeconomyshouldsupportincreasingrentalsbymid-2013.

    INCREASING RENTALS EXPECTED BY MID-2013

    finAnciAL indices

    RENTAL INFORMATION

    Orchard Road Prime Shopping Centres Rental Value^ SGD 4,204 psm pa

    Stage in Cycle Rents Stable No. of Quarters Since Last Trough 11

    ^neteffective,onNLA

    12-MONTH OUTLOOK

    Rental ValueOrchardRoadPrimeShoppingCentres

    Capital ValueOrchardRoadPrimeShoppingCentres

    demAnd

    sUPPLy

    Occupancyremainstight,withsustainedinterestfromfoodandbeverageandfashionapparelretailers. PlazaSingapurasExtension(11,797

    sqm)and100AM(11,799sqm)roundedout2012ssupply.

    Atover80%,thepre-commitmentlevelsofbothmallswerehealthy.

    TheSuburbansubmarketcontinuedtogeneratehealthyinterestfromretailers,bothdomesticandinternational.

    RetailsalesinDecember(excludingmotorvehicles)declinedby0.4%y-o-y.

    retAiL stocK comPLetions

    Completionsinthousandsqm

    FutureSupply

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

    23085 156 64 85 199

    RentalValueIndex

    CapitalValueIndex

    IndexBase4Q08=100

    100

    95

    90

    110

    105

    85

    80 4Q 08 4Q

    09 4Q

    10 4Q11 4Q12

    LEASING TRANSACTIONS INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS

    Nex(617,214sqft)soldforSGD825millionMurray Terrace (50,000sqft)soldforSGD75millionThe Quayside retail units (33,000sqft)soldforSGD69million

    H&M20,000sqft,IONOrchardCrate & Barrel 16,000sqft,IONOrchardMulberry 4,000sqft,MandarinGallery

    NOTABLE DEALS IN 2H12

    4Q 2012 Highlights15RetailCities|Singapore

  • AlexanderMcQueenCoffeeBeanandTeaLeafFoodRepublicH&MPaylessShoesourceStellaMcCartneyTWGTeaSalon&BoutiqueTwiningsTea

    New RetaileRs iN 2012

    BangkokThailands retail market is expected to grow by around 10 per cent this year, and its capital boasts both strong consumption and global appeal as a shopping destination. Brand-hungry shoppers from home and abroad make for Bangkoks stylish city centre malls, such as Siam Paragon, Emporium, CentralWorld, Terminal 21 and Erawan Bangkok. New developments are also catching the eye. Signature 2012 openings included Mega Bangna, a 400,000 sqm mall featuring Thailands first IKEA store, and Asiatique the Riverfront, which combines a mall and night bazaar beside the Chao Phraya River that runs through Bangkok. Commanding attention in 2013 will be Central Embassy, a mixed-use residential and hotel development in the heart of the capital that promises a retail mall with just the right mix of chic and swagger. The development pipeline is expected to continue, Siam Future is among the developers building community malls in suburban Bangkok.

    Note:BangkokRetailreferstoBangkoksPrimeretailmarket.Source:JonesLangLaSalle

    Asset PerformAnce

    12 montH oUtLooK

    finAnciAL indices

    RENTAL INFORMATION

    Overall Prime Shopping Centres Rental Value^ THB 21,159 psm pa

    Stage in Cycle Rents Rising No. of Quarters Since Last Trough 15

    ^net,onNLA

    12-MONTH OUTLOOK

    Rental ValueOverallPrimeShoppingCentres

    Capital ValueOverallPrimeShoppingCentres

    demAnd

    sUPPLy

    Nonewprimeprojectscompletedin4Q12andSilomComplexwastheonlyprojecttocompleterenovations.

    CentralEmbassyandEmquatier(TheEmporiumII)arescheduledtocompletein2013&2014respectively.

    In4Q12,strongleasingdemandinprimeretailcentreswassupportedbyinternationalbrands.

    RisingpurchasingpowerhasledretailerstoexpandtheircustomerbasetoThailand.

    Theaveragevacancyrateincreasedin4Q12to6.8%asseveralprimecentresunderwentrenovations.

    RENTS MOVE HIGHER

    Supportedbystrongleasingdemandandhigherachievedrentsinrenovatedprojects,theaveragegrossrentin4Q12wasupby1.3%q-o-q.

    CAPITAL VALUES RISE 1.3% Q-O-Q

    Supportedbyongoinggrowthinrents,capitalvaluesroseby1.3%q-o-q,reflectingthestronginvestmentinterestinretailproperty.

    Rentsareexpectedtoriseandthestronginterestinowningretailassetsisforecasttoseecapitalvaluesalsorise.

    RENTS AND CAPITAL VALUES EXPECTED TO GROW

    TheoutlookforBangkoksretailmarketshouldremainpositivein2013,givengrowingdomesticconsumptionandstrongleasingactivity,especiallyamonginternationalbrands.

    RETAIL MARKET OUTLOOK SHOULD REMAIN POSITIVE

    LEASING TRANSACTIONS INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS

    Family Mart (713branches)soldforTHB3.12billionMerry King Rangsit Building (20,000sqm)soldforTHB2billion

    H&M 3,300sqm,SiamParagonUniqlo 1,780sqm,SiamParagonLouis Vuitton 450sqm,SiamParagon

    retAiL stocK comPLetions

    Completionsinthousandsqm

    FutureSupply

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

    187190 43 298 681 154

    RentalValueIndex

    CapitalValueIndex

    IndexBase4Q08=100

    100

    95

    90

    110

    105

    85

    80 4Q 08 4Q

    09 4Q

    10 4Q11 4Q12

    NOTABLE DEALS IN 2H12

    4Q 2012 Highlights16RetailCities|Bangkok

  • AlfredDunhillBrooksBrothersFurlaMichaelKorsNewLookVictoriasSecret

    New RetaileRs iN 2012

    JakartaIndonesia is home to Southeast Asias largest population and one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Consequently, the retail market in the capital Jakarta is considered to offer high potential, and the shopping options and patterns of consumer behaviour are continuing to diversify.Jakartas leading malls include Plaza Indonesia, Grand Indonesia, Plaza Senayan and Pacific Place, all of which target middle to upper class spending power with a mix of mass market and luxury brands. Adding an extra frisson of excitement will be the opening in 2013 of a three-floor department store by Paris-based Galeries Lafayette at Pacific Place. A wave of real estate development has delivered two major new mall developments, Kota Kasablanka and Ciputra World, which is part of a large mixed-use complex featuring a luxury hotel, residences and offices.

    Note:JakartaRetailreferstoJakartasOverallPrimeretailmarket.Source:JonesLangLaSalle

    Asset PerformAnce

    12 montH oUtLooK

    Asweanticipatedemandtogrowsteadily,thevacancyrateislikelytoremainstablearoundthecurrentlevel(i.e.4-5%)in2013.

    VACANCY LIKELY TO REMAIN STABLE

    Theretailmarketisexpectedtoreceive223,000sqmofnewsupplyfromthreeprojects(LotteShoppingAvenue,St.MoritzandPondokIndahStreetGallery)in2013;almost70%ofthesethreeprojectshasbeenpre-committed.

    THREE PROJECTS TO COMPLETE IN 2013

    RENTS & CAPITAL VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE

    Rentsandcapitalvaluesareprojectedtopickupinlinewiththeincreaseinretailsales.

    finAnciAL indices

    demAnd

    sUPPLy

    STRONG DEMAND HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON RENTS

    Healthydemandgrowthhasyettotriggersignificantrentalincreasesaslandlordsfocusonattractingtenantstofill-upvacantspace.Overall,neteffectiverentsgrewmarginallyby0.8%q-o-qin4Q12.

    GROWTH IN CAPTAL VALUES COMPRESSES YIELDS

    Capitalvaluesgrewfasterthanrentsat1.4%q-o-q.Thispushedyieldstocompressby10basispointsto11.0%byend-4Q12.

    Therewerenoprojectcompletionsin4Q12.

    KotaKasablanka,whichwascompletedin3Q12,wastheonlyadditiontoJakartasprimeretailmarketintheyear.

    Healthyeconomicgrowthandrobustdomesticconsumptioncontinuedtosupportretailsalesin4Q12.

    Netabsorptiontotalled22,000sqmin4Q12,slightlyabovetheaveragelevelinthepreviousthreequarters.

    Strongdemandresultedinmallvacancydecliningfrom5.4%in3Q12to3.7%byend-4Q12.

    RENTAL INFORMATION

    Overall Prime Shopping Centres Rental Value^ IDR 4,895,968 psm pa

    Stage in Cycle Rents Rising No. of Quarters Since Last Trough 7^

    ^neteffective,onNLA

    12-MONTH OUTLOOK

    Rental ValueOverallPrimeShoppingCentres

    Capital ValueOverallPrimeShoppingCentres

    retAiL stocK comPLetions

    Completionsinthousandsqm

    FutureSupply

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

    2531 120 0 62 223

    RentalValueIndex

    CapitalValueIndex

    IndexBase4Q08=100

    98

    96

    94

    92

    90

    106

    104

    102

    110

    108

    100

    4Q 08 4Q

    09 4Q

    10 4Q11 4Q12

    LEASING TRANSACTIONS INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS

    No major investment deals in 2H12. Central Department Store 10,000sqm,GrandIndonesiaLotte Department Store 80,000sqm,CiputraWorldJakarta

    NOTABLE DEALS IN 2H12

    4Q 2012 Highlights17RetailCities|Jakarta

  • ArmaniJeansArmaniJuniorBurgDunkinDonutsLaTagliatellaNandosRobertoCavalliStarbucksThomasPinkVanLaack

    New RetaileRs iN 2012

    DelhiAs Indias retail sector prepares to profit from relaxed rules governing foreign direct investment by multi-brand retailers, Delhi seems poised to be a leading beneficiary. Indias vibrant, capital city encompasses several retail submarket spread across its sprawling landscape. The favourite hangouts for local shoppers include DLF Emporio, Select City Walk , DLF Promenade and Ambience Mallin South Delhi, Ambience Mall in Gurgaon and Pacific Mall in West Delhi. Competition to attract affluent, brand-savvy capital shoppers is increasing between retailers, especially in prime areas and the difference between high-quality retail projects and the less successful malls is increasingly apparent. Rapidly growing outbound travel is helping to boost sales for luxury retailers at Indira Gandhi International Airport, the largest and busiest airport in South Asia.

    Note:DelhiretailreferstoDelhisOverallretailmarket.Source:JonesLangLaSalle

    Asset PerformAnceRENTS STABLE

    Overall,rentsremainedstableinallsubmarketsduringthequarter.

    REVENUE SHARING ARRANGEMENTS RISE

    Retailersresistedrentincrementsandfavouredrevenuesharingarrangementsoverplainleaseagreements.

    CAPITAL VALUES HOLD FIRM

    Inlinewithstablerents,capitalvalueswerealsorelativelyunchangedineverysubmarketin4Q12andyieldsheldfirm.

    12 montH oUtLooK

    Retailersareexpectedtopursuedealsinunder-constructionprojectsthatoffergooddesign,brandingandprofessionalmanagement,asthesefeatureswilllikelytranslatetohealthyfootfallandpositivebusinesspotential.

    STRONG DEMAND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR NEW PROJECTS

    Asglobalretailersandstategovernmentsdecideonwherestoresshouldbelocated,itisexpectedthattheintroductionofFDIintomulti-brandretailislikelytotakea6-12monthperiodtorollout.

    FDI INTO MULTI-BRAND RETAIL LIKELY IN 2H13

    RENTS EXPECTED TO MOVE HIGHER

    Sustainedretailerinterestislikelytocauserentstomoveupwards,whilelowervacancysupportsariseinselectsubmarkets.Supplyrationalisationmayeasethedownwardpressureonrents.

    finAnciAL indices

    demAnd

    sUPPLy

    MSXCentralMarket(285,000sqft)inGreaterNoidaandEuroPark(450,000sqft)inGhaziabadopenedin4Q12.

    Limitedvacancyingoodperformingmallspushedretailerstopre-commitinupcomingprojects.

    Absorptionincreasedassmallstoreformatretailerswereactivein4Q12,withnetabsorptionrecordedat630,000sqft.

    NewcompletionsintheSuburbscontributednearly97%oftotalnetabsorption.Overall,vacancydroppedto24.1%in4Q12.

    retAiL stocK comPLetions

    Completionsinthousandsqm

    FutureSupply

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

    168180 229 310 99 153

    RENTAL INFORMATION

    Prime South Shopping Centres Rental Value^ INR 242 psf pm

    Stage in Cycle Growth Slowing No. of Quarters Since Last Trough 8

    RentalInformationisforthePrimeSouthonly^gross,onGFA

    12-MONTH OUTLOOK

    Rental ValuePrimeSouthShoppingCentres

    Capital ValuePrimeSouthShoppingCentres

    90

    80

    70

    110

    100

    60

    504Q

    08 4Q

    09 4Q

    10 4Q11 4Q12

    LEASING TRANSACTIONS INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS

    No major investment deals in 2H12. Hamleys 36,000sqft,DLFPlaceSaketMarks & Spencer 18,500sqft,MomentsMall

    NOTABLE DEALS IN 2H12

    4Q 2012 Highlights18RetailCities|Delhi

    RentalValueIndex

    CapitalValueIndex

    IndexBase4Q08=100

  • KennethColePizzaExpressStarbucksSuperdry

    New RetaileRs iN 2012

    MumbaiIndias pulsing financial and commercial hub is also the nations capital of style. Brand awareness among consumers is growing fast, encouraging more global retailers and luxury and fashion brands to tap into Indias edgiest retail market. Mall shopping is a popular concept, and shopping centres such as Palladium at High Street Phoenix, Atria, Inorbit and Oberoi Mall offer a sophisticated mix of retail, dining and entertainment. Mumbai is a vast city and the quality of mall developments in recent years has varied considerably. Shopping centres in the suburbs tend to offer better infrastructure and operational management in addition to large residential catchment areas for retailers. A wave of real estate development in 2011 caused an imbalance in supply, and several underperforming malls have been retrofitted into stand-alone and high street style retail formats.

    Note:MumbairetailreferstoMumbaisOverallretailmarket.Source:JonesLangLaSalle

    Asset PerformAnce

    12 montH oUtLooK

    Vacancyratesareexpectedtodeclineintheprimesubmarketsasdevelopersprefersmallstandaloneandmixeddevelopmentretailformatsinsteadofdistinctlargermalls.

    DEMAND FOR SMALLER FORMATS TO PUSH VACANCY LOWER

    FDI SHOULD SUPPORT THE RETAIL MARKET

    TheopeningofFDIintomulti-brandretailislikelytoboosttheretailmarketinthemediumtolongtermduetotheentryofinternationalproducts,practicesandtechnology.

    RENTS & CAPITAL VALUES EXPECTED TO GROW

    Rentsandcapitalvaluesarelikelytoincreasegraduallyinallsubmarkets,albeitbyvaryingdegrees.

    finAnciAL indices

    demAnd

    sUPPLy

    RENTS RISE IN THE PRIME SOUTH & SUBURBS

    RentsincreasedinthePrimeSouthby0.8%q-o-qin4Q12andintheSuburbsby1.0%q-o-q.Similarto3Q12,agradualincreaseinoccupancyinselectqualitymallsintheSuburbsraisedaveragerents.

    SLIGHT INCREASE IN CAPITAL VALUES

    Capitalvaluesincreasedmarginallyacrossallsubmarkets.However,thehighestgrowthincapitalvalueswaswitnessedintheSuburbsbecauseofitsgrowingimportanceasaninvestmentdestination.

    Therewasonecompletionin4Q12,KaulHeritageCityMall(250,000sqft)inVasai.

    Netabsorptionincreasedin4Q12asdomesticretailersexpandedtotakeafirst-moveradvantagefollowingachangetoallowFDIintomulti-brandretailing.

    Mumbairecordedtotalnetabsorptionof217,000sqftin4Q12comparedto64,400sqftin3Q12.

    MajorleasingactivitywasconcentratedintheSuburbsbecauseofitsqualitymalls,infrastructureandvastresidentialarea.

    RENTAL INFORMATION

    Prime South Shopping Centres Rental Value^ INR 244 psf pm

    Stage in Cycle Rents Rising No. of Quarters Since Last Trough 7

    RentalInformationisforthePrimeSouthonly^gross,onGFA

    12-MONTH OUTLOOK

    Rental ValuePrimeSouthShoppingCentres

    Capital ValuePrimeSouthShoppingCentres

    retAiL stocK comPLetions

    Completionsinthousandsqm

    FutureSupply

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

    130349 228 334 88 123

    100

    90

    110

    80

    70

    604Q

    08 4Q

    09 4Q

    10 4Q11 4Q12

    LEASING TRANSACTIONS INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS

    No major investment deals in 2H12. Marks & Spencer 18,000sqft,AndheriWestSmoke House Deli 2,115sqft,BKCPizza Express 3,900sqft,Colaba

    NOTABLE DEALS IN 2H12

    4Q 2012 Highlights19RetailCities|Mumbai

    RentalValueIndex

    CapitalValueIndex

    IndexBase4Q08=100

  • CultureKingsMarimekkoPocoAustraliaSamsungT.M.LewinTopshop/Topman

    New RetaileRs iN 2012

    SydneySydneysiders love to shop, and Australias largest city counts an eclectic shopping environment befitting its status as a high-profile international destination. Shoppers in Sydney can choose from a diverse portfolio of smart malls, department stores, designer brand flagships and homegrown fashions. A large working population and a regular flow of tourists in the downtown CBD creates a strong market for its distinctive shopping centres, such as the historic Strand Arcade and Queen Victoria Building, plus the recently refreshed Westfield Sydney. Retail outlets also extend along George Street, the citys main thoroughfare, and are bookended by the busy China Town markets and precinct in the south and The Rocks near to the Harbour Bridge in the north. The waterside Darling Harbour is a popular shopping area for visitors. Beyond the centre, the suburban districts of Bondi, Chatswood and Parramatta also offer also offer diverse shopping experiences.

    Note:SydneyRetailreferstoSydneysOverallretailmarket.Source:JonesLangLaSalle

    Asset PerformAnce

    LEASING INCENTIVES RISE

    Leasingincentiveshaveincreasedacrossallretailformatsthroughouttheyeartoattractandretaintenants.

    RENTS DECLINE IN SOME SUB-SECTORS

    ChallengingleasingconditionsresultedinadeclineinrentsintheRegional(0.3%q-o-q)andNeighbourhood(-0.8%qo-q)categories.AveragerentswerestableintheCBD,Sub-regionalandBulkyGoodscategoriesin4Q12.

    INVESTMENT MARKET INCREASINGLY ACTIVE

    TheretailinvestmentmarkethasbecomeincreasinglyactivewithfourmajorsalesrecordedinSydneyin4Q12.

    12 montH oUtLooK

    Theprojectscurrentlyinthepipelinesuggestsupplyshouldbelimitedin2013butdevelopmentconditionsareimproving.

    SUPPLY PIPELINE SHOULD BE LIMITED

    Weexpectleasingmarketconditionstoimprovein2013,butrentalgrowthislikelytoremainbelowthelongtermaveragetrendintheshortterm.

    RENTAL GROWTH TO REMAIN BELOW TREND

    MODEST YIELD COMPRESSION EXPECTED

    Theinvestmentmarketislikelytoremainrobustandinstitutionaldemandforcoreassetsisexpecttoresultinsomemodestyieldcompressionthroughouttheyear.

    finAnciAL indices

    demAnd

    retAiL stocK comPLetions

    Completionsinthousandsqm

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

    136146 199 121 114 43

    FutureSupply

    sUPPLy

    RENTAL INFORMATION

    Regional Shopping Centres Rental Value^ AUD 1952 psm pa

    Stage in Cycle Rents Stable No. of Quarters Since Last Peak 5

    ^net,onNLA

    12-MONTH OUTLOOK

    Rental ValueRegionalShoppingCentres

    ExtensionswerestartedatMacquarieShoppingCentre(31,800sqm)andDFOHomebushin4Q12.

    Completionsin2012totalled114,200sqm,withBulkyGoodsbeingthedominantformat(52%).

    NSWretailturnovergrowthacceleratedin2012butremainsconsiderablybelowthelong-termtrend.

    Theaveragevacancyratedecreasedfrom2.3%in1H12to1.7%in2H12.

    Theleasingmarketremainschallengingandfeedbackindicatesenquirylevelsremainlow.

    RentalValueIndex

    IndexBase4Q08=100

    120

    110

    100

    904Q

    08 4Q

    09 4Q

    10 4Q11 4Q12

    LEASING TRANSACTIONS INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS

    Top Ryde City (77,060sqm)soldforAUD341millionBateau Bay Square (29,162sqm)soldforAUD164millionCentro Toormina (21,337sqm)soldforAUD65.5million

    Samsung 212sqm,450GeorgeStreetTopshop / Topman 1,800sqm,455GeorgeStreetWilliams-Sonoma 2,040sqm,466-472OxfordStreet

    NOTABLE DEALS IN 2H12

    4Q 2012 Highlights20RetailCities|Sydney

  • GapMarimekkoSamsung

    New RetaileRs iN 2012

    MelbourneMelbourne is famed for its eclectic dining and colourful calendar of festivities, and its claim to be the heartland of Australian style and fashion is supported by growing global interest in the annual Melbourne Fashion Festival. Melbourne boasts a vibrant and diverse retail market, ranging from the artisans of Flinders Lane, the high-end stores on Chapel Street and Collins Street to the Bourke Street Mall and Chadstone the Fashion Capital.To position Melbourne as an internationally recognised shopping destination, the City of Melbourne teamed up with the Victorian State Government to develop the six-year Melbourne Retail Strategy. The initiative aimed to encourage the citys retail sector to constantly innovate and create campaigns that showcase Melbournes cultural, artistic and commercial diversity.

    Note:MelbourneRetailreferstoMelbournesOverallretailmarket.Source:JonesLangLaSalle

    Asset PerformAnceRENTS STABILISING

    AveragespecialtystorerentswereunchangedinMelbournein4Q12acrossallretailformats.Thebroad-basedslowdownisinlinewithnationaltrendsinretailrents.

    SEVEN MAJOR SALES TRANSACT IN 4Q12

    RetailtransactionstotalledAUD292.1millionin4Q12andlargelycomprisedofWestfieldsacquisitionofa20%shareinWestfieldKnoxand50%shareinCaseyCentral.

    YIELDS REMAIN STABLE

    PrimeequivalentyieldswerestableacrossallretailformatsexceptRegionalcentres.ThemedianRegionalcentreyieldforMelbournetightenedfrom6.50%in3Q12to6.25%in4Q12.

    12 montH oUtLooK

    Theforwardpipelineofprojectscurrentlyunderconstructionorwithplansapprovedsuggestsannualsupplyshouldaverage229,800sqmoverthenextthreeyears.

    NEW SUPPLY SIMILAR TO 2012

    TheVictorianeconomyandretailturnoverareforecasttopostamodestrecoveryin2013.Leasingmarketconditionsarethereforesettoimproveandlowvacancyratessuggestsomemildupwardpressureonrents.

    MILD RENTAL GROWTH ANTICIPATED

    YIELDS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE

    Averageretailyieldsareforecasttoremainstabledespiterobustinvestordemandbuttheremaybefurtherwideningoftheyieldrangeinsomeretailsub-sectors.

    finAnciAL indices

    demAnd

    Melbournesaveragevacancyratewasstablein2H12at2.1%buttheresultsweremixedbetweenretailformats.

    retAiL stocK comPLetions

    Completionsinthousandsqm

    FutureSupply

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

    250359 61 190 222 275

    sUPPLy

    Supplyroseto221,550sqmin2012,representinga17%increasefrom2011.

    Fournewprojectscompletedin4Q12comprisingthreeBulkyGoodsoutletsandoneNeighbourhoodcentre.

    Retailturnovergrowthdeclined0.3%y-o-yinDecember,reflectingaslowerstateeconomyandlabourmarket.

    RENTAL INFORMATION

    Regional Shopping Centres Rental Value^ AUD 1479 psm pa

    Stage in Cycle Rents Stable No. of Quarters Since Last Peak 0

    ^net,onNLA

    12-MONTH OUTLOOK

    Rental ValueRegionalShoppingCentres

    RentalValueIndex

    IndexBase4Q08=100

    120

    110

    100

    904Q

    08 4Q

    09 4Q

    10 4Q11 4Q12

    LEASING TRANSACTIONS INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS

    Centro Keilor (19,052sqm)soldforAUD67millionAxis South Morang (20,000sqm)soldforAUD30millionLaurimar Shopping Centre (4,491sqm)soldforAUD19million

    Topshop / Topman 1,600sqm,HighpointShoppingCentreSamsung 380sqm,HighpointShoppingCentreZara 2,400sqm,HighpointShoppingCentre

    NOTABLE DEALS IN 2H12

    4Q 2012 Highlights21RetailCities|Melbourne

  • PROPERTY AND ASSET MANAGEMENT

    AmanoraTownCentre,Pune1.1millionsqft

    CentreSquare,Cochin450,000sqft

    CentreSquareBaroda,Vadodara140,000sqft

    GulmoharPark,Ahmedabad220,000sqft

    Jones Lang LaSalle Retail Track Record: Recent Highlights

    LEASING

    Marks&Spencer,Mumbai18,000sqft

    RelianceHyper,Nashik75,000sqft

    PizzaExpress,Mumbai3,900sqftfirsttransaction

    asexclusiveadvisor

    Marks&Spencer,NewDelhi18,500sqft

    Hamleys,NewDelhiFirstHamleysstoreinNorthern

    India36,000sqft

    Starbucks,NewDelhi5,000sqft,firststorein

    NorthIndia

    Thailand

    IndiaChina

    LEASING

    Aeon,Guangzhou135,625sqft

    ZARA,Guangzhou33,368sqft

    I.T,Shanghai25,295sqft

    Inditex(ZARA,MassimoDutti,BershkaandPull&Bear),Jilin3,484sqft

    BeijingHuananCenter,Beijing807,300sqft

    PROJECT LEASING

    RockSquare,Guangzhou1,076,391sqft

    TheFubonInternational,Shanghai1,022,571sqft

    TheStarlifePlaza,Shanghai1,184,030sqft

    TheEcoIslandProject,Nanjing376,737sqft

    TheTiandiHui,Wuhan1,076,391sqft

    PROJECT LEASING

    AutomallRangsit,PathumThani473,612sqft

    PROPERTY AND ASSET MANAGEMENT

    144,571,103millionsqft

    LEASING

    15.07millionsqft

    PROJECT LEASING

    58.21millionsqft

    CAPITAL MARKETS

    billionintransactions3.22> USD

    Wine Connection, Phuket

    LEASING

    WineConnection,Phuket4,521sqft,BananaWalk

    VillaMarket,Phuket4,854sqft,BananaWalk

    CAPITAL MARKETS

    EverbrightMall,GuangzhousoldforUSD318million

    TianxingRooseveltMall,DaliansoldforUSD330million

    PROPERTY AND ASSET MANAGEMENT

    MacquarieGroup5.3millionsqftacross9

    shoppingcentres

    TheStarlifePlaza,Shanghai1,184,030sqft

    RockSquare,Guangzhou1,076,391sqft

    PROPERTY AND ASSET MANAGEMENT

    BananaWalk,Phuket129,167sqft

    The Fubon International, Shanghai

    CAPITAL MARKETS

    NEX617,214sqftsoldforUSD662million

    MurrayTerrace50,000sqftsoldfor

    USD60million

    TheQuaysideretailunits33,000sqftsoldfor

    USD55million

    HougangPlaza79,640sqftsoldfor

    USD96million

    SingaporeLEASING

    PureYoga11,507sqftandanchortenantforChevron

    House

    TommyBahamanewtomarketbrand1,959sqft

    CAPITAL MARKETS

    WestlandsCentreG/Fshop1soldforUSD33million

    YenLokBuildingvariousportionssoldforatotalof

    USD13million

    Hong KongLEASING

    Longchamp8,000sqft,Silvercord

    GAP15,800sqft,MPM

    Breitling10,000sqft,517-519HennessyRoad

    Hamleys, New Delhi

    NEX, SingaporeLongchamp, Hong Kong

  • Measurementsarerepresentedinsquarefeet,roundeduptothenearestfigure.QuotedvalueshavebeenconvertedtoUSDroundeduptothenearestfigureandcorrectasof25March2013.

    KoreaPROJECT LEASING

    SignatureTower,Seoul39,975sqft

    T-Avenue,Seoul10,778sqft

    New ZealandLEASING

    ANZWellington,22-26WillisStreet5,640sqft

    MetroCentre,291-297QueenStreet,Auckland26,910sqft

    CAPITAL MARKETS

    KelstonShoppingCentre,AucklandUSD24million,232,156sqft

    PoriruaMegaCentre,Wellington436,099sqftsoldforUSD25million

    PROPERTY AND ASSET MANAGEMENT

    Eastgate,Christchurch290,626sqft

    MerivaleMall,Christchurch80,729sqft

    RetailTrackRecords 23

    LEASING

    Telstra,Brisbane1,340sqft

    MosBurger,BrisbanefirstCBDstore1,722sqft

    GuzmanyGomezlargeststoreinAustralia3,767sqft

    Australia

    CAPITAL MARKETS

    FederationCentresPortfolio(formerlyCentro)50%stakesoldinthreeregionalshoppingcentresacrossAustraliaforUSD722million(GalleriaWA,TheGlenVicandColonnadesSA)

    MyerCentre,Brisbane(50%)683,293sqftsoldforUSD383million

    TopRydeCity,Sydney829,467sqftsoldforUSD356million

    PROPERTY AND ASSET MANAGEMENT

    BatemansBayShoppingCentre,NSW226,042sqft

    KensingtonVillageShoppingCentre,VIC64,583sqft

    HorshamPlazaShoppingCentre,VIC135,625sqft

    ShoppingCentresofAustraliaTrust(SCA)managementof50shoppingcentresacrossAustraliatotallingover3,767,369sqft

    Top Ryde City, Sydney

    T-Avenue, Seoul

    Kelston Shopping Centre, Auckland

  • It takes perspective and expertise to stay ahead. Jones Lang LaSalle combines in-depth local knowledge with far-reaching global insights to help you discover hidden opportunities.

    With our retail intelligence and integrated platform of leasing, management and capital markets, we provide solid advice that will maximise your investment.

    From the high street to out of town, from mini-mart to mega-mall, we measure value the same way one square at a time.

    Retail opportunities in every square

    joneslanglasalle.com/asiapacific

  • Asia PacificAnuj PuriHeadofRetail,AsiaPacificChairmanandCountryHead,[email protected]

    David [email protected]

    AustraliaTony DohertyHeadofRetail,[email protected]

    Cameron [email protected]

    ChinaEugene [email protected]

    Colin [email protected]

    Hong KongTom [email protected]

    IndiaPankaj [email protected]

    Shubhranshu [email protected]

    IndonesiaAngela Wibawa [email protected]

    James [email protected]

    JapanMidori SuzukiCo-HeadofPropertyandAssetManagementmidori.suzuki@ap.jll.com

    Taichi IioHeadofRetail,[email protected]

    KoreaJay [email protected]

    MacauGregory [email protected]

    New ZealandAlistair [email protected]

    Chris [email protected]

    Philippines Lizanne [email protected]

    SingaporeHannah [email protected]

    TaiwanSteve [email protected]

    ThailandSuphin [email protected]

    Krid [email protected]

    VietnamTrang [email protected]

    Thu [email protected]

  • Asia Pacificwww.joneslanglasalle.com/asiapacificAustraliawww.joneslanglasalle.com.auChinawww.joneslanglasalle.com.cnHong Kongwww.joneslanglasalle.com.hkIndiawww.joneslanglasalle.co.inIndonesiawww.joneslanglasalle.co.idJapanwww.joneslanglasalle.co.jpKoreawww.joneslanglasallekorea.co.krMacauwww.joneslanglasalle.com.moNew Zealandwww.joneslanglasalle.co.nzPhilippineswww.joneslanglasalle.com.phSingaporewww.joneslanglasalle.com.sgSri Lankawww.joneslanglasalle.com.lkTaiwanwww.joneslanglasalle.com.twThailandwww.joneslanglasalle.co.thVietnamwww.joneslanglasalle.com.vn

    Jones Lang LaSalle Asia Pacific

    COPYRIGHT@JONESLANGLASALLE2013.Allrightsreserved.Thecontentofthispublicationhasbeencompiledfromthevarioussourcesacknowledged.Theinformationisfromsourceswedeemreliable;however,norepresentationorwarrantyismadetotheaccuracythereof.Thisreporthasbeenproducedsolelyasageneralguideanddoesnotconstituteadvice.Westressthatforecastingisaproblematicalexercisewhichatbestshouldberegardedasanindicativeassessmentofpossibilitiesratherthanabsolutecertainties.