jmp and sei research for the yorkshire and humber assembly
TRANSCRIPT
JMP and SEI research for the Yorkshire and Humber Assembly
Research aims
to identify practical, deliverable measures within the scope of regional transport policy to significantly reduce levels of carbon dioxide emissions from the transport sector
Context for this study
Climate ChangeIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Fourth Assessment Report
Context
The earlier YHA report Evaluating the contribution that key regional strategies make towards addressing climate change identifies the contribution of transport to the region’s carbon dioxide emissions 2007
ContextTransport’s contribution to CO2 emissions in Yorkshire and the Humber
Context – earlier YHA research
Modelling of the contribution of transport to a number of hypothetical future scenarios was undertaken, including the Y&H Vision, and a Stabilising Carbon Trends (SCT) scenario
ContextTransport assumptions in the SCT scenario
Our research and the modelling using REAP
The task on transport
How did we do this?
Modelling using REAP
Modelling using REAP
In short REAP modelling can provide an indicative view of carbon dioxide emissions under a range of policy scenarios.
Modelling in this research
Developing Scenarios
Business as usual scenario
Essentially a baseline position based on continuing delivery of LTP and other existing programmes of transport policy interventions.
Do-something scenarios
Packages of practical measures that help to achieve increased vehicle occupancy and reduced travel distances, especially by the car
This involves the modelling of far reaching programmes of practical transport investment and interventions in the period from 2011, way beyond the scale of current practice in the region
Practical transport interventions
Interventions used in the modelling
Interventions used in the modelling
Far reaching packages
Applied at practical levels to account for regional differences
Up to 16 different interventions modelled in each future scenario
Modelled effects of the combination of these interventions
Interventions used in the modelling
Personalised journey planning
Regional smartcard
Light rail extensions
Bus priority measures
Rail electrification
Workplace travel plans
Home working or teleworking
Travel awareness and education campaigns
Grocery home shopping
Interventions used in the modelling
School travel plans
Car clubs
Car sharing
HOV lanes
Mileage based road user charging
Congestion charging in urban areas
Car free zones
A radical approach to land use planning at new developments
Results of the modelling
Business as UsualLand transport only
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
CO
2 (t
/cap
.)
Business as UsualIncluding aviation
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
CO
2 (t
/cap
.)
Step change scenarioLand transport only
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
CO
2 (t
/cap
.)
Step Change
Business As Usual
Step change scenarioIncluding aviation
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
CO
2 (t
/cap
.)
Step Change
Business As Usual
Accelerated scenarioLand transport only
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
CO
2 (t
/cap
.)
Accelerated
Business As Usual
Accelerated scenarioIncluding aviation
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
CO
2 (t
/cap
.)
Accelerated
Business As Usual
Comparison of scenariosIncluding aviation
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
CO
2 (t
/cap
.) Step Change
Accelerated
Business As Usual
Sustaining Carbon Trends
Key Conclusions
Where do we go from here?
The road from Bali ….. must be paved not with good intentions but concrete actions and rigorous implementation
His Excellency Mr. Rachmat Witoelar,
President, UN Climate Change Conference, closing address, Bali, 15th December 2007
