july 2021 auto market update and outlook
TRANSCRIPT
July 2021 Auto Market Update and Outlook
Average Dealership Total Sales
$30.64
$35.73
$41.49$44.43
$49.28
$52.95
$56.72$59.59 $59.67
$61.23 $61.55$58.97
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mill
ion
s $
Source: NADA
55.0%33.0%
12.0%
Share of Total Sales
New Used Fixed Ops
Average Dealership Departments 2020
26.9%
26.9%
46.1%
Share of Total Gross
New Used Fixed Ops
Franchised Dealership has Plateaued for Now
1,134.4
1,077.91,072.2 1,075.4
1,079.7 1,080.3 1,077.5
960
980
1,000
1,020
1,040
1,060
1,080
1,100
1,120
1,140
1,160
2019 2020 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21
Fran
chis
ed L
igh
t-V
ehic
le D
eale
rsh
ip E
mp
loym
ent
(th
ou
san
ds)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Monthly New Light-Vehicle Sales
16.7 16.517.3
16.517.4 17.2 16.9 17.0 17.1
16.517.0 16.6 16.9 16.7
11.4
8.7
12.213.1
14.615.2
16.3 16.315.6
16.3 16.315.7
1818.8
17.0
15.4
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
Mill
ion
s o
f U
nit
s, S
easo
nal
ly A
dju
sted
An
nu
al R
ate
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, NADA
Top 10 Monthly SAARs Since 2000
21.720.6
18.9 18.818.2 18.1 18.1 18.0 18.0 17.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
Oct '01 Jul '05 Feb '00 Apr '21 Sep '00 Jan '00 Aug '02 Jun '05 Mar '21 Aug '15
Mill
ion
s o
f U
nit
s, S
easo
nal
ly A
dju
sted
An
nu
al R
ate
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, St. Louis Federal Reserve
Non-Retail Share of New Vehicle Sales
22%
24%
21%21%20%20%
15%14%
17%
19%19%
16%
24%25%
24%
20%21%
22%
14%14%
20%
17%16%
19%
22%
25%26%
12%
7%
9%11%
9%
12%13%
14%15%
18%18%
14%
12%13%13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
No
n-R
etai
l Sh
are
of
New
Veh
icle
Sal
es (
%)
Source: J.D. Power PIN
Fleet Sales
2.93.0
3.12.9
3.13.3
2.1
2.5
17.4% 17.3% 17.9%
17.0%
18.0%
19.3%
14.4%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
18.0%
19.0%
20.0%
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Flee
t sh
are
of
tota
l new
ligh
t-ve
hic
le s
ales
Flee
t sa
les
(mill
ion
s)
Source: Edmunds; IHS Markit
U.S. OEM Market Share – June 2021 YTD
General Motors, 16.0%
Toyota, 15.6%
Ford, 11.5%
Stellantis, 11.4%
Honda, 10.0%
Hyundai, 9.7%
Nissan, 7.0%
Other, 5.9%
Volkswagen, 4.5%
Subaru, 3.9%Daimler, 2.3%
BMW, 2.2%
Other is Jaguar/Land Rover, Mitsubishi, Mazda, Tesla, Volvo
Source: Wards Intelligence
Vehicle Mix – June 2021 YTD
51.2% 52.2%49.8% 51.2%
53.2%56.7%
60.6%64.5%
69.2%72.1%
76.4% 76.9%
48.8% 47.8% 50.2% 48.8%46.8%
43.3%39.4%
35.5%
30.8%27.9%
23.6% 23.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 June 2021YTD
Light-trucks Cars
Source: Wards Intelligence
U.S. Segment Share – June 2021 YTD
4.5%
8.8%
45.9%
17.6%
4.5%
0.6%
8.4%
9.6%
4.6%
8.9%
41.8%
20.0%
4.7%
0.7%
9.7%
9.5%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0%
Van
SUV
CUV
Pickup
Luxury Car
Large Car
Middle Car
Small Car
June 2020 YTD June 2021 YTD
Source: Wards Auto
U.S. Sales by Powertrain – June 2021 YTD
June 2021 YTD June 2020 YTD
Units Share Units Share
Gas 7,328,020 88.4% 5,928,453 92.5%
Diesel 302,525 3.6% 202,119 3.2%
Unspecified Gas/Diesel
708 0.0% 727 0.0%
Natural Gas 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
Hybrid 398,778 4.8% 166,664 2.6%
Plug-in Hybrid 66,924 0.8% 25,010 0.4%
Electric 195,280 2.4% 89,087 1.4%
Fuel Cell 1,872 0.0% 420 0.0%
Total 8,294,107 6,412,480
Source: Wards Auto
Average Transaction Price
$30,079 $30,982 $31,194
$32,035 $32,824 $33,456 $34,449 $34,670
$35,608 $36,824
$38,961 $40,068
$16,554 $17,311 $17,556 $18,081 $18,839 $19,400 $19,886 $20,009 $20,586 $21,094
$22,027
$24,102
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 May 21 YTD
New-Vehicle Used-Vehicle
Source: NADA
Average Incentives per Unit
$3,878 $3,886 $3,789
$3,573
$3,878 $3,966
$4,069 $4,154 $4,214
$4,110
$4,520 $4,592
$4,149 $4,176
$4,415
$4,953 $4,825
$4,349 $4,235
$4,113 $3,931
$3,627
$3,842 $4,027
$3,611 $3,518 $3,454
$3,108
$2,828
$2,412
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
Ave
rage
Ince
nti
ves
per
Un
it
Source: J.D. Power PIN
Average Interest Rate on Vehicle Financing
5.5%
3.6%
4.3%
8.7%
7.6%7.3%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
Ave
rage
Inte
rest
Rat
e o
n V
ehic
le F
inan
cin
g (%
)
New Used
Source: J.D. Power PIN
Share of Transactions with Trade-In Negative Equity
35.5%
20.4%
30.6% 25.1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Shar
e o
f Tr
ansa
ctio
ns
wh
ere
Trad
e-I
n L
oan
Pay
off
Ex
ceed
s A
ctu
al C
ash
Val
ue
(%)
New Used
Source: J.D. Power PIN
$484 $500
$513 $523
$548
$572 $588
$619
$421 $424 $425 $438
$456
$479 $488
$528
$377 $383 $386 $392 $408
$420 $431
$496
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jun 21
Average Monthly Payments
New Loan Lease Used Loan
Monthly Payments
$108$117
$127 $131$140
$152$157
$123
$63
$75
$88 $85$92 $93
$100$91
$45 $42 $39$47 $47
$59 $57
$32
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jun 21
Payment Gap
New Loan vs. Used New Loan vs. Lease Lease Vs. Used
Source: J.D. Power PIN
Inventory and Days Supply
June 2021 Inventory June 2020 InventoryJune 2021 Days
SupplyJune 2020 Days
Supply
Small Car 120,434 251,395 23 62
Middle Car 111,713 258,130 26 71
Large Car 11,486 20,244 34 77
Luxury Car 80,951 113,885 33 49
CUV 601,538 1,146,890 25 58
SUV 144,540 207,664 36 54
Van 63,861 135,706 30 70
Pickup 262,263 476,717 28 58
Industry 1,396,913 2,610,953 27 59
Source: Wards IntelligenceNote: Inventory is units. Daily sales rate is sales volume divided by selling days in the period. Days' supply is inventory divided by DSR.
Used Market is Red Hot
Chip Shortage as of July 12, 2021
Region Forecast Total Production Loss
North America 2,090,000
Europe 1,906,000
China 894,000
Rest of Asia 1,057,000
South America 223,000
Middle East/Africa 62,000
Total 6,232,000
• 5.1 million vehicle production losses announced globally• 1.6 million production losses in North America announced
Source: Auto Forecast Solutions; Automotive News
North American Vehicle Production
18.0 18.217.5 17.4
16.8
13.3
15.3
17.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 F 2022 F
No
rth
Am
eric
an li
ght-
, med
ium
-&
hea
vy-d
uty
ve
hic
le p
rod
uct
ion
(m
illio
ns)
Source: Wards Intelligence; IHS Markit
U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales
16.916.5
16.1
13.2
10.4
11.6
12.7
14.4
15.516.4
17.4 17.4 17.1 17.3 17.1
14.5
16.5 16.8 16.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Veh
icle
Sal
es (
mill
ion
s o
f u
nit
s)
Source: Wards Intelligence; NADA
BEVs
Powertrain Offering Mix by OEM MY 22-25
66%
21% 24%
6%12%
19%
40%35%
22%31%
48%
36%24%
47%42%
19%
28%31%
39%26%
23%
7%
2% 4%
28%
43%52%
45% 42%
62%
32% 35%39% 44%
29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
GM Ford Stellantis Toyota Honda Nissan VW BMW Daimler Korean Other
Shar
e o
f to
tal n
ew m
od
el n
amep
late
off
erin
gs
Electric Hybrid Fuel Cell ICE
Source: BofA Global Research
Mix of New Model Powertrain offerings by OEM MY 2022- 2025
812
1822
11 13 118 8
19
2710
8
23
114 7
3 5
5
7
19
6
8
3
3
4
11
45
7
24
1
1
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
GM Ford Stellantis Toyota Honda Nissan VW BMW Daimler Korean Other
Tota
l nu
mb
er o
f n
ew m
od
el n
amep
late
off
erin
gs
ICE Hybrid BEV Fuel Cell
Source: BofA Global Research
Upcoming BEV Products
BEVs and Fixed Ops
