multifamily market update & outlook - urban

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CONFIDENTIAL ©2018 REALPAGE, INC. Multifamily Market Update & Outlook Jay Parsons, VP of Asset Optimization & Deputy Chief Economist, RealPage Inc. July 8, 2020 CONFIDENTIAL ©2019 REALPAGE, INC.

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Page 1: Multifamily Market Update & Outlook - Urban

C O N F I D E N T I A L © 2 0 1 8 R E A L P A G E , I N C .

Multifamily Market Update & OutlookJay Parsons, VP of Asset Optimization & Deputy Chief Economist, RealPage Inc. July 8, 2020

C O N F I D E N T I A L © 2 0 1 9 R E A L P A G E , I N C .

Page 2: Multifamily Market Update & Outlook - Urban

FINANCIAL STABILITY FOR THE LONG HAUL

• Founded in 1998; built for real estate from the start

• Offices in 26 countries; over 7,000 team members

• GAAP total revenue of $988.1 million; 14% increase, year-over-year

• Publicly traded: Nasdaq Global Select: RP

INDUSTRY FIRSTS

• Invested nearly $700,000,000 in R&D since 2010

• First SaaS provider to the rental housing industry

• First to provide real-time data

• Highest level of focus on data science and artificial intelligence

• First comprehensive revenue management capabilities

GLOBAL SCALE, RESILIENT OPERATIONS

• Hardened data center

• 5th largest SaaS data center in the world

• 4 billion transactions per-peak-day; 850 billion+ annually

• 75 million+ calls a year

• 14.5 petabyte data storage capacity

• 4 redundant 40Gbps fiber link connections

OPEN PARTNERSHIP, OPEN PLATFORM

• Effortlessly open: end-to-end to existing core to point solutions

• Open API, hundreds of third-party integrations

• 95% NMHC Top 50

• $1 trillion worth of rental real estate assets run on RealPage

• Cadre of experts

ABOUT REALPAGE

Page 3: Multifamily Market Update & Outlook - Urban

RENT PAYMENTS & COLLECTIONS

• Renter sentiment surveys appear to divert from reality of payments

• Market-rate rent collections through June had shown surprisingly little impact

• 77.4% paid as of July 6 (market-rate only)

• Down 2.3 ppts year-over-year

• Down 3.4 ppts month-over-month (July 4 holiday has impact)

• Big coastal cities trailing Sun Belt and Midwest for rent collections

• Class A and B holding up well, while Class C having some challenges

• Smaller, mom-and-pop properties appear to be most challenged

• Payment plans widely offered, but not widely utilized

Page 4: Multifamily Market Update & Outlook - Urban

© 2 0 2 0 R E A L P A G E , I N C .

YoY Change in Traffic and Guest Cards

Rolling seven-day totals, same-store basis, sourced from RealPage systems

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

1/1

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02

0

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Website Traffic Guest Cards

Page 5: Multifamily Market Update & Outlook - Urban

© 2 0 2 0 R E A L P A G E , I N C .

YoY Change in Apartment Executed Lease Signings

Rolling seven-day totals, same-store basis, sourced from RealPage systems

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%1

/11

/20

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Executed New Leases

Executed Renewal Leases

Page 6: Multifamily Market Update & Outlook - Urban

© 2 0 2 0 R E A L P A G E , I N C .

YoY Change in Executed New Lease Rents

Rolling seven-day averages, same-store basis, sourced from RealPage systems

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%1

/11

/20

20

1/1

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Page 7: Multifamily Market Update & Outlook - Urban

U.S. Apartment Monthly Retention Rates

*Share of renters renewing leases in the same unit, sourced from RealPage systems

46%

48%

50%

52%

54%

56%

58%

60%

Page 8: Multifamily Market Update & Outlook - Urban

© 2 0 2 0 R E A L P A G E , I N C .

YoY Change in Executed Renewal Lease Rents

*Rolling seven-day averages, same-store basis, sourced from RealPage systems

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%1

/11

/20

20

1/1

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Page 9: Multifamily Market Update & Outlook - Urban

YoY Rental Revenue Change: Urban vs. Suburban

*YoY change in Rev/ASF, sourced from RealPage systems

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

Jun 2017 Dec 2017 Jun 2018 Dec 2018 Jun 2019 Dec 2019 Jun 2020

Urban Suburban

Page 10: Multifamily Market Update & Outlook - Urban

SEPARATING FACTS VERSUS NOISE

1. Housing demand is growing for all housing types

• For-sale and for-rent demand is generally in sync, and both currently trending up

2. Much of the population has seen minimal financial impact (in part due to CARES Act)

• BEA: Personal income jumped 10.5% between March and April, while spending dropped 13.6%

• Banks reporting sizable increase in small-account checking account balances

• Univ of Chicago study: 68% of jobless workers getting higher pay from unemployment than in job

3. Rent affordability & eviction conversations must be focused on the true problems

• Lack of designated affordable housing supply

• Lack of government support (local and federal) to increase affordable rental stock

• Focus on big coastal cities, particularly in older and non-institutional properties

• Few signs of challenges in institutional-grade apartments, particularly outside Top 5 cities

Page 11: Multifamily Market Update & Outlook - Urban

MULTIFAMILY CAPITAL MARKETS UPDATE

1. Loan forbearance requests remain small

• Freddie Mac June report: 5% of loans and 2.6% of unpaid principal balance

• 75% of forborne loans are Small Balance Loans. “Since these properties have fewer

units, each tenant experiencing stress has a larger impact on small property owners.”

• Fannie and Freddie recently announced expanded programs to protect both borrowers

and tenants

2. Multifamily deal flow has stalled, but pricing holding up

• Mismatch between owner and buyer expectations triggering market freeze

• Volume of properties sold plunged 85% in May year-over-year

• Lots of dry powder targeting apartments, but “wait and see” is prevailing

Page 12: Multifamily Market Update & Outlook - Urban

LOTS OF POSITIVES, BUT BIG QUESTIONS STILL LOOM

1. Second wave of COVID-19 and increased cases in Sun Belt

2. Unemployment benefits expiration looming; what happens next?

3. Shape of economic recovery… is a “V” now even less likely?

4. Extension of eviction moratoriums and other policy shifts; are they precise enough?

5. Undersupply of rental housing, particularly affordable