Decision Making: The July Crisis

Sometime in May 1914

An attack is planned

• Austria has a sizeable minority of Serbs who are treated badly

• Austria has restricted the import of goods from Serbia

• Since 1908, Austria has annexed Bosnia, which many in the Serb government feel should be part of a Pan-Slavic nation

• Serbia has shown itself to be strong in the 1912-1913 Balkan Wars

To Serbia

What will you do?

1. Use military intelligence to assassinate a member of the royal family

2. Use bombs to attack the railway station in Vienna

3. Sabotage military bases in Bosnia

Sometime in June

Archduke Franz Ferdinand to Visit Sarajevo

• The heir to the Austrian throne has announced he will visit Sarajevo and the route has been published in the newspapers.

• Austria has been conducting military exercises near the Serbian border.

• Only about 60 police are available for protection.

• He plans to visit on St Vitus’ Day – a holy day commemorating the 1389 Battle of Kosovo against the Ottomans, at which the Sultan was assassinated in his tent by a Serb.

• The Serbian government has warned of a plot to attack him.

To Austria

What will you do?

1. Cancel the visit

2. Have the visit go ahead but change the timings, route and provide extra security

3. Have the visit go ahead as planned

28 June 1914

Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand▪ The heir to the Austrian throne is killed in Sarajevo. ▪ He was shot by a Serb terrorist, Gavrilo Princip.

To Germany: Austria is asking you how she should react. What is your reply?

1. Take hard and prompt action against Serbia 2. Show restraint in your handling of Serbia – e.g. conference3. Do whatever you like and we’ll back you up

5 July

The "Blank Cheque"

• Kaiser William II of Germany promised to support Austria whatever line she takes against Serbia.

To Austria:

What is your next move with regard to Serbia?

1. Military Action: attack immediately

2. Political Pressure: Issue a list of demands which you hope they will accept

3. Political Pressure: Issue a list of demands which you hope they will reject

23 July

The Austrian ultimatum to Serbia

• Austria presented Serbia with a list of unreasonable demands and gave her just 48 hours to reply.

To Serbia

What do you do?

1. Reject the demands outright

2. Accept most of them and try to negotiate further on the others

3. Accept them all

28 July

Serbia tries to renegotiate the ultimatum

• Serbia agreed to all of the Austrian demands except one ( - allowing the Austrian army into the country)

To Austria:

What do you do?

1. Accept Britain’s offer to chair an international conference to find a solution to the problem

2. Declare war on Serbia and start bombing her capital city?

3. Accept Serbia’s response; she’s only rejected one point

29 July

The Austrians declare war

• Austria rejected the Serbian reply and declared war.

• Austria began bombing Belgrade, the capital of Serbia

To Russia

What do you do?

1. Declare war on Austria immediately

2. Order your army to mobilise (prepare for war)

3. Urge Serbia to accept the ultimatum in full and surrender

30 July

Russia ordered her army to mobilise (get ready for war) against Austria.

• Germany was particularly alarmed, because this could lead to the failure of the Schlieffen Plan

To Germany

What do you do?

1. Order Russia to halt her mobilisation immediately

2. Declare war on Russia

3. Activate the Schlieffen Plan

31 July

The German ultimatum to Russia:

• Germany presented an ultimatum to Russia demanding she halt her mobilisation within 12 hours.

To Russia

What do you do?

1. Ignore the request

2. Reject the request

3. Agree to the request

1 August

Russia ignores the German ultimatum.

• Despite a series of telegrams between the Kaiser and the Tsar, Russia refuses to demobilise because this would leave her vulnerable.

To Germany

What do you do?

1. Declare war on Russia

2. Mobilise your army to put pressure on Russia

3. Activate the Schlieffen Plan by attacking France via Belgium

1 August

Germany declared war on Russia

• Aware that the success of the Schlieffen Plan depends on striking the first blow, Germany declares war on Russia.

To France

What do you do?

1. Declare war on Germany

2. Mobilise your army to put pressure on Germany

3. Ask Germany to demobilise

1 August

France ordered her army to mobilise (get ready for war) against Germany

• Because France was an ally of Russia

To Germany

What do you do?

1. Declare war on France and invade Belgium

2. Declare war on France but don’t do anything more yet

3. Call upon France to demobilise: this argument has nothing to do with her.

3 August

Germany declared war on France and sent troops through Belgium

• As per the Schlieffen Plan. Germany had asked Belgium to allow her troops through but she refused.

To Britain

What do you do?

1. Declare war on Germany but do nothing more

2. Do nothing: we are not directly threatened

3. Declare war on Germany and start sending troops to France

4 August

• Britain declared war on Germany for invading neutral Belgium and started sending troops over to France immediately

To Australia

What do you do?

1. Advise Britain that you won’t send any troops as it is a European war far from Australia

2. Have a vote in parliament on whether to send troops

3. Send troops immediately