June 22, 2004

NOAA’s NWS Volcanic Ash Program: Current Status and

Plans for the Future

Chris StragerNWS Alaska Region HQ

OVERVIEW

• BACKGROUND

• THE PROGRAM TODAY

• FUTURE CHALLENGES

“Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it.”

– Sir Winston Churchill

BACKGROUND

• “Roots” of NWS Volcanic Ash Program traced back to 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens

• Ash plume reached 90,000 feet in 30 minutes

• Circled the globe in two weeks • Over 1,000 commercial flights cancelled

Other significant volcanic eruptions helped shape global volcanic ash program:

– Galunggung Volcano, Indonesia (1982)

• Two 747-200 passenger jets heavily damaged

• Result: ICAO’s International Airways Volcano Watch

– Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines (1991)• Airports covered with up to 6 inches

of ash • 20 commercial jets damaged

Meanwhile, in Alaska…

• Mt. Redoubt (1989-90)– KLM 747-400 incident; over $80M in damages

• Mt. Spurr (1992)– Ashfall in Anchorage

closed airport for several days

– Ash cloud disrupted operations across AK, Canada, US

That was nature’s sequence of volcanic ash events…what about the NWS?

• 1995: NWS Alaska Aviation Weather Unit (AAWU) formed

• 1997: ICAO established nine worldwide Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs)– Anchorage AK (managed by AAWU)– Washington DC (joint effort between NESDIS/NWS)

• 1998: Responsibility for managing NWS Volcanic Ash Program transferred to NWS Alaska Region.– Operational knowledge– Developed successful coordination with other agencies

NWS VOLCANIC ASH PROGRAM STRUCTURE - TODAY

• Program Management: NWS Alaska Region• 2 VAACs: Anchorage and Washington (joint

effort with NESDIS)• 4 MWOs: AAWU, Aviation Weather Center,

Honolulu and Guam WFOs– Issue Volcanic Ash SIGMETs

• Anchorage Center Weather Service Unit (CWSU)– Works with FAA’s Air Route Traffic Control Center

Anchorage FIR2.4 million sq miles/5.18 sq kms

A few words about the CWSU…

ZAN CWSU support to major jet routes across the Pacific

Meteorological Impact Statement (MIS)

• CWSU provides first information to controllers immediately following eruption detection

• Work closely with Anchorage VAAC and Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO)

NWS VOLCANIC ASH PROGRAM CHARTER

• Original goals of NWS Volcanic Ash Program listed in Nov 1995 Volcano Management Plan, drafted by the NWS’ Alaska Region HQ:

– Continue to build effective “operations-based” program

– Coordination with other NOAA/NWS offices– Coordination with other national agencies– Establish international volcano program agreements– Continue research and training efforts

FUTURE CHALLENGES

• Aggressively pursue upgrades in remote sensing capabilities for NOAA/NWS VAACs, MWOs, CWSU– Present system relies on single-channel data– Significant improvements coming in near future

• Multi-channel/hyper-spectral sensors• “Orders of magnitude” of more data

– Requires downlink system to capture (and process) these large data sets

– View new data on NWS operational workstations

FUTURE CHALLENGES

• “5-minute requirement”– 5 minutes from detection to warning– Stated by customer…must strive to meet this

• Modernize text products to graphics– “Weather in Cockpit”– Graphical VA SIGMETs, advisories– Work closely with international community to

ensure these formats work for all

FUTURE CHALLENGES (cont)

• “International Consistency”– Stay current with research, operational

procedures– Break down language barriers between VAACs

• Training (both NWS and external customers)– Volcanic ash forecasting still relatively new – Operational forecasters must stay current with

new monitoring, forecasting techniques

FUTURE CHALLENGES (cont)

• Transform current research into operational forecasting tools/techniques

• Continued collaboration with Federal, private, international partners

PARTNERS (partial listing!)

• Within NOAA:– NESDIS (Washington VAAC, remote sensing)– Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL)

• Volcanic Ash Coordination Tool (VACT)– Air Research Laboratory (Modeling)– Aviation Weather Center (Graphics)

• US Geological Survey/AVO– Close operational relationship with VAAC and CWSU– Partners in VACT development

• FAA/ICAO• Other worldwide VAACs• Aviation Customers

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NOAA’s NWS Volcanic Ash Program: Current Status and

Plans for the Future

Questions?