Slide 1

K EYNOTE S PEAKER : D R. P ENNY M ORGAN

Slide 2

Climate Change ImplicationsRapidEvident

Slide 3

Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship NSF-funded initiative to foster interdisciplinary graduate education. Innovative approaches Catalyze a cultural change in graduate education Collaborative model Over 200 projects in 90+ universities funded. T HE IGERT MISSION 3 Introduction & Workshop Goals JAROD BLADES IGERT Students & Faculty; IGERT Annual Retreat, Field Point State Park, WA; August, 2012 Nilsa Bosque-Perez

Slide 4

W HY ARE WE HERE ? 4 What we hope to provide: A greater understanding of climate change science Information specific to your location at regional and local scales What we need from you: Are these types and scales of information useful to you? Why or why not? How could future climate change research be focused to increase its utility in management, what types of information would better serve your needs? Introduction & Workshop Goals JAROD BLADES

Slide 5

Climate Science Hydrology Forest Ecology Fire Ecology Social Psycholog y Federal Agencies (USFS, BLM, EPA) State Agencies NGOs Forest Veg Simulator Climate Extension Regional Water Balance Model Global Emission and Circulation Models Research World Management World Boundary Objects (workshop tools) Regional Fire Modeling Uncertainty Global scale Regional Local scale Boundary Organization (Workshop) 5 Transferring knowledge across boundaries JAROD BLADES

Slide 6

20 years of data slow integration Identified Needs: better understanding of climate change implications. (RMRS Strategic Framework, 2009) rapid science delivery and efficient collaborative processes. understanding of the processes related to knowledge exchange 6 Climate change threatens the UFSF ability to fulfill its mission of protecting and conserving forests and grasslands to meet the needs of present and future generations. (Gail Kimbell, former U.S. Forest Service Chief ) Need for Actionable Science JAROD BLADES

Slide 7

7 Organizational Capacity 1.Employee Education 2.Program Guidance Organizational Capacity 1.Employee Education 2.Program Guidance Engagement 1.Science-management Partnerships Engagement 1.Science-management Partnerships Adaptation 1.Assessing Vulnerability 2.Adaptation Actions 3.Monitoring Adaptation 1.Assessing Vulnerability 2.Adaptation Actions 3.Monitoring USFS Performance Scorecard JAROD BLADES 7

Slide 8

8 What to expect today JAROD BLADES

Slide 9

Introduction Jarod Blades Spatial/Temporal Scales 6 Forests 4 workshop locations 100 years past, 100 years future JAROD BLADES G RANGEVILLE M ISSOULA M C C ALL B OISE 9

Slide 10

Introduction Jarod Blades You all know the rules Be courteous to each other Constructive dialogue and feedback The elections are over so no soap boxing Allow everyone time to speak Parking lot A note about recording the small groups Restrooms 10

Slide 11

Introduction & Workshop Goals Jarod Blades 11

Slide 12

Introduction Jarod Blades Scope of our research Terrestrial Ecosystems Water Supply Wildland Fire Climate Change Human Connections Management Actions Stressors (invasives)

Slide 13

Introduction Jarod Blades Ongoing effort to track understanding and use of climate change science Are Employees Ready, Willing and Able? (Engert, Swanson, Schilling, & Joyce, 2010) What employees want: Management support and time to learn More training within disciplines at forest and district levels Collaboration across agencies Research and policy needs: Climate and weather at local landscape Fire Dynamics Watershed-level HRV if not that, what? Analysis/Monitoring/NEPA tools

Slide 14

Introduction Jarod Blades Questions about the day? Introduce Penny Morgan Give a short bio about her accolades

Slide 15

Introduction Jarod Blades Timeframes 100 years past, 100 years future

Slide 16

Introduction Jarod Blades Potentially end here

Slide 17

Introduction Jarod Blades 17

Slide 18

Introduction Jarod Blades Uncertainty Discussion Uncertainty generally refers to conditions in which ... details of situations are ambiguous, complex, unpredictable, or probabilistic; when information is unavailable or inconsistent; and when people feel insecure in their own state of knowledge or the state of knowledge in general (Brashers, 2001, p. 478).

Slide 19

Introduction Jarod Blades

Slide 20

Introduction Jarod Blades Hurricane Forecast Cone Based on the past 5 years, 6070% of the time the eye will be within the cone http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/graphi cs/al09/loop_3W.shtml

Slide 21

Introduction Jarod Blades Medical Analogy Dr.: Well, I am very concerned about your heart condition. I think you should be on a low cholesterol diet and exercise. Would anybody say to their doctor If you can't tell me precisely when am I going to have the heart attack and how severe it will be. then why should I change my lifestyle?

Slide 22

Introduction Jarod Blades When you are certain, come back and talk to us.' That is not the way it works in any other form of life. Not in business. Not in health. Not in security.

Slide 23

Introduction Jarod Blades Modeling the Future Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful George E. P. Box Climate scientists are NOT trying to make 'absolute' predictions; what scientists are really doing is trying to identify, within given probabilities, the outcomes that are likely to result in a variety of circumstances. Quantifying uncertainties is important in all scientific research: without an estimate of confidence, a result cannot be placed in context, cannot be given meaning. But it is essential in climate science because climate is, by definition, the statistics of weather: and statistics is the science of uncertainty.

Slide 24

Introduction Jarod Blades A different way of thinking about the future Comparing relative trends rather than absolute probabilities Static and dynamic futures