BOEING FLIGHT

TESTING

Kelly KimberlingKelsey LaRocheTyde SirkMichael Ulmen

TEAM INPUT & CONFLICTS Only one person can work on the model at

once Weekly time spent on project was over 18

people hours Email good source of communication

PROBLEM DESCRIPTION Estimating testing time with given resources

is problematic What is the probability of finishing the

certification tests by a given date with given resources

What is the time between gates This helps to find finish time after major delays

OBJECTIVE Estimate two kinds of variability

Resource skill level Failures/Delays/Visits from Murphy during testing

METHOD Discrete event simulation in conjunction with

Monte Carlo simulation using the simulation software Arena Based on business rules Many iterations with variation in each test Allows visualization of the process with

animation Able to see what resources are spending the

most time at ????

ASSUMPTIONS Three people per team Skill levels and pay are known and vary Testing is planned to the individual level Adequate fleet size to do all testing and/or

multiple tests to a plane in parallel Order/schedule of tests Chances and distributions Skill Distribution: 90/100/110

PARTS OF MODEL We will have shortcuts to each major part of

the model

FLIGHT VS. GROUND TESTS Flight tests have a set time but can be

delayed for weather and ground prep delays Ground tests have variable times based on

resource skills and availability and what was discovered during testing

RESOURCE TEAMS Tests are performed by teams but we allocate

individual tasks Each team has members with different skill

levels System pulls workers

Fastest to slowest Selected on preferred order based on speed of worker

and availability Could be pulled by some attribute/variable such as

cost relative to speed

FAILURES Major delays to the project

Redesigns % chance that varies each time

Minor delays to the project Weather delays Over allocated resources Resource shortage

OUTCOMES How long will it take, not as point estimate,

but as confidence interval and probability 25 Workers

Fastest worker’s total hours: Medium speed worker’s total hours: Slowest worker’s total hours:

Labor Costs Duration of process Utilization

DELAYS In-air flight testing is go/no-go

Weather delays can prevent a test % chance to delay a flight test due to weather Changes with each test and iteration Test duration is constant While plane is waiting for concurrent tasks to

finish

GATES Milestones

Record date reached Helps find major risk of delay

IMPACT ON STAKEHOLDERS If model is used

Customers can get a more realistic time frame on when to expect their planes

Boeing has a better idea knowing how long flight testing will take and expected costs (95% confidence interval)

Boeing will know how many workers they will need to complete a process in a more effective manner Can put more workers at other tasks to speed up

process