Kern County’s Population will More than DoubleGrowth Driven by Spillover from Southern California and Our Kids

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Other

Hispanic

White

Trend: Kern’s Changing EthnicityHispanics will increase from 38 to 58 percent

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

55+

20-54

0-19

Trend: Kern is AgingPersons 55+ will increase from 17 to 22 percent

Source: California Department of Finance, 2007

Source: California Department of Finance, 2007

Even if we created an Even if we created an eight-lane eight-lane tripletriple beltway system we beltway system we still cannot build our still cannot build our way out of way out of congestion with all congestion with all the development on the development on the books today.the books today.

Future Heavy Traffic Congestion(2045-65 depending on how fast we grow)

Downtown

Olive Dr at 99Olive Dr at 99

RosedaleRosedale Hwy at 99Hwy at 99

Today’s Heavy Traffic Congestion (2005)

Bakersfield

South Beltway

Westside Parkway

West B

eltway

Shafter North Beltway

ou

ter metro

beltw

ay

crosstown

inner beltw

ay

CSUB

BC

Airport

Lamont

Shafter

Bakersfield

Red = Frequent CongestionRed = Frequent CongestionOrange = Regular CongestionOrange = Regular CongestionYellow = Occasional CongestionYellow = Occasional Congestion

Red = Frequent CongestionRed = Frequent CongestionOrange = Regular CongestionOrange = Regular CongestionYellow = Occasional CongestionYellow = Occasional Congestion

Will Building Freeways Eliminate Congestion?

Relief Options for Congested Freeways

CSUB

BC

Mill Creek

Baker St

Transportation model results indicated that ridership on light-rail not enough by 2014:

–700 passengers per mile –2000 needed per mile to operate affordably

One Light Rail Line Can One Light Rail Line Can Carry as Many Passengers as Carry as Many Passengers as

16-lanes of Freeway16-lanes of Freeway(El Toro “Y” in Orange County)(El Toro “Y” in Orange County)

One Approach: Phased Light Rail

Today

Bus Rapid Transit

Light Rail

Metro Bakersfield Light Rail Sketch Plan

The 1996 light rail study for Bakersfield indicated that there would not be enough riders for a system by 2014. The city was not compact enough to operate the service. The study recommended enhancing bus service as an interim step until the community became compact enough to operate a light rail system.

Some communities are looking to express bus or bus rapid transit as an interim service until activity around the transit stops are busy and compact enough to support a light rail system.

Metro Bakersfield Bus TransitInterim Step to Light Rail

San Diego Trolley

Eugene OR,. Bus Rapid Transit – Dedicated bus lane on arterial streets

Bus caught in same traffic as cars

Metropolitan Bakersfield Major Transportation Investment Study (1996)

Mervyn’s Plaza

Downtown

AMTRAK