key index danareksa snapshotdmia.danareksaonline.com/upload/morning pack 20130423.pdf · 2013. 4....
TRANSCRIPT
See important disclosure on the back of this report
Danareksa Snapshot Tuesday, 23 April 2013
From Research:
PTBA 1Q13 Result: Lower earnings expected (BUY, TP Rp17,200) PTBA booked lower earnings in 1Q13 of Rp 493bn (-30% qoq, -43% yoy), or reaching 18% of our full year forecast. Revenues dropped to Rp 2.7tn (-3% qoq, -8% yoy) due to lower ASP of Rp 613,810 per ton.
From Today’s Headlines: (please see our analysts’ comment inside)
Capex UNTR US$ 230 Million (ID) Tires Market: First Quarter Sales Down 5.2% (BI) TLKM AGM Result 2012 (TJP)
From IDX:
Cash announcement Code Ex Date Date Payable Amount (Rp) BBNI 29-Apr-13 16-May-13 113 BBTN 29-Apr-13 10-May-13 39 BMRI 29-Apr-13 16-May-13 199 ITMG 29-Apr-13 15-May-13 1,464 SMCB 25-Apr-13 14-May-13 48
Listing announcement
Code Date Term BNII 13-May-13 12:1 Right Issue VI@Rp320 SCMA 8-May-13 Merger with IDKM IDKM 8-May-13 Delisting: Merger IDKM & SCMA AUTO 25-Apr-13 Right issue
Source: Stockwatch
Key Index
Close Chg Ytd Vol
(%) (%) (US$ m)
Asean - 5
Indonesia 4,997 (0.0) 15.8 508
Thailand 1,559 0.9 12.0 2,125
Philippines 7,120 2.3 22.5 259
Malaysia 1,707 0.0 1.0 492
Singapore 3,309 0.5 4.5 999
Regional
China 2,242 (0.1) (1.2) 15,449
Hong Kong 22,044 0.1 (2.7) 6,932
Korea 1,922 (0.2) (3.8) 3,317
Taiwan 7,970 0.5 3.5 2,546
India 19,170 0.8 (1.4) 403
Nasdaq 3,234 0.9 7.1 53,780
Dow Jones 14,567 0.1 12.6 6,500
Currency and Interest Rate
Rate w-w m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Rupiah (Rp/1US$) 9,716 (0.0) 0.6 0.8
SBI rate (%) 4.89 0.1 0.1 0.1
10-y Govt Indo bond 5.45 (0.0) (0.0) 0.3
Hard Commodities
Unit Price d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Coal US$/ton 86 - (3.7) (5.3)
Gold US$/toz 1,421 (0.4) (11.6) (15.2)
Nickel US$/mt.ton 15,227 0.8 (10.9) (10.4)
Tin US$/mt.ton 20,750 0.2 (9.4) (11.2)
Soft Commodities
Unit Price d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,358 0.7 10.4 2.9
Corn US$/mt.ton 255 (1.1) (11.1) (4.8)
Crude Oil US$/barrel 100 (0.0) (6.8) (9.7)
Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,277 (0.1) (3.1) 2.0
Rubber USd/kg 237 (2.6) (14.3) (20.5)
Pulp US$/tonne 843 1.0 4.2
Coffee US$/60kg bag 116 (0.7) (0.9) (1.5)
Sugar US$/MT 504 (0.9) (4.4) (3.8)
Wheat US$/mt.ton 258 0.1 (3.5) (9.6)
Source: Bloomberg
PT Danareksa Sekuritas Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14 Jakarta 10110 Indonesia Tel (62 21) 350 9777, 350 9888 Fax (62 21) 350 1709
Our Research team and sector coverage: Strategy: Chandra Pasaribu - [email protected], (62-21) 351 0748 Agriculture: Helmy Kristanto - [email protected]; (62-21) 2352 6854 Automotive: Helmy Kristanto - [email protected]; (62-21) 2352 6854 Auto Component: Joko Sogie - [email protected]; (62-21) 350 9888 ext.3512 Banking: Eka Savitri - [email protected]; (62-21) 350 9888 ext. 3577 Cement: Chandra Pasaribu - [email protected]; (62-21) 351 0748 Coal: Gabriella Maureen - [email protected]; (62-21) 350 9888 ext.3507 Construction: Joko Sogie - [email protected]; (62-21) 350 9888 ext.3512 Consumer: Helmy Kristanto & Mardesiana - [email protected]; (62-21) 350 9888 ext. 3508 Heavy equipment: Gabriella Maureen - [email protected]; (62-21) 350 9888 ext.3507 Metal Mining – non coal: Ananita Mieke - [email protected]; (62-21) 350 9888 ext. 3503 Pharmaceutical: Helmy Kristanto & Mardesiana - [email protected]; (62-21) 350 9888ext. 3508 Property: Anindya Saraswati - [email protected]; (62-21) 350 9888 ext. 3506 Retail: Anindya Saraswati - [email protected]; (62-21) 350 9888 ext. 3506 Transportation: Ananita Mieke - [email protected]; (62-21) 350 9888 ext. 3503 Telecom: Chandra Pasaribu - [email protected], (62-21) 351 0748 Utilities: Chandra Pasaribu - [email protected], (62-21) 351 0748
Our Sales team: Ermawati A. Erman - [email protected]; (62 21) 350 9777 ext. 3151 Asfarita Andalusia - [email protected]; (62 21) 350 9777 ext. 3134 Kemal A. Uno - [email protected]; (62 21) 350 9777 ext. 3124 Novrita E. Putrianti - [email protected]; (62 21) 350 9777 ext. 3128 Ehrliech Suhartono - [email protected]; (62 21) 350 9777 ext. 3132 Yunita L. Nababan - [email protected]; (62 21) 350 9777 ext. 3145 Bram Taarea – [email protected]; (62 21) 350 9777 ext. 3127 Martin Joshua - [email protected]; (62 21) 350 9777 ext. 3126 Yofi Lasini - [email protected]; (62 21) 350 9777 ext. 3133
Bukit Asam (BUY – TP Rp 17,200)
1Q13 Result – Lower earnings expected *from Newspaper In line 1Q13 results PTBA booked lower earnings in 1Q13 of Rp 493bn (‐30% qoq, ‐43% yoy), or reaching 18% of our full year forecast. Revenues dropped to Rp 2.7tn (‐3% qoq, ‐8% yoy) due to lower ASP of Rp 613,810 per ton. The margins were also squeezed: the gross margin tumbled 643bps to 34% with the net margin down 676bps to 18%. High sales volume on external purchases 1Q13 coal production reached 2.9mn tons (‐19% qoq, ‐15% yoy) meanwhile sales volume surged to 4.5mn tons (+14% qoq, +17% yoy) which expected the sales growth support from third party purchase thus yield to lower gross margin of 34%. At the moment we still await the detail breakdown from the company. We maintain our BUY recommendation with DCF‐based Target Price of Rp 17,200, implies FY13‐14F P/E of 14.3‐13.0x. Exhibit 1. PTBA’s 1Q13 results
1Q13 4Q12 QoQ 1Q12 YoY 2013F A/F
Operational performance Sales volume, mn tons 4.5 3.9 14% 3.9 17% 17.9 25%
Production & purchase, mn tons 2.9 3.6 ‐19% 3.4 ‐15% 16.3 18%
Financial performance
Net sales, Rp bn 2,777 2,873 ‐3% 3,022 ‐8% 12,335 23%
Gross profit, Rp bn 954 1,172 ‐19% 1,428 ‐33% 5,046 19%
Operating profit, Rp bn 590 930 ‐37% 1,069 ‐45% 3,456 17%
Net profit, Rp bn 493 705 ‐30% 867 ‐43% 2,768 18%
Gross margin, % 34% 41% 47% 41%
Operating margin, % 21% 32% 35% 28%
Net margin, % 18% 25% 29% 22% Source : Company
Analyst Gabriella Maureen Natasha Equity Research | PT Danareksa Sekuritas Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14 Jakarta 10110 - Indonesia
: +62 21 3509888 ext 3507 : [email protected]
In the interest of timeliness, this product was not edited
Capex UNTR US$ 230 Million (ID) UNTR allocated capex this year of US$ 230 million, or less than the original plan of US$ 250 million.
Capex this year is also lower than 2012 worth of US$ 500 million. The Company said that most of the
capex this year allocated to PT Nusantara Pamapersada of US$ 190 million. Meanwhile UNTR approve
the final dividend for the financial year 2012 amounted to Rp620 per share or Rp2.31 trillion, including
the interim dividend of Rp210 per share, which already distributed on 2 November 2012.
Comment: We view this as a right step as most of the coalminers have lowered their stripping ratio
target (lower volume) for this year. Using yesterday closing price of IDR18,200, implies dividend yield of
3.4%. (Gabriella)
Tires Market: First Quarter Sales Down 5.2% (BI) Growth in the domestic automotive market has not been able to save the national tire industry from the
slump caused by the total tire sales in the quarter-I 2013 dropped 5.2%. The Association recorded total
sales of tires for four-wheel vehicles in January-March this year reached 11.85 million units, lower than
the achievement in the same period last year at 12.49 million units. Increase in tire sales in the domestic
market amounted to 11.7% could not compensate the decline in exports which reached 14.1%.
Comment: We already expect this situation in current tire market condition, as it the same like last year
condition. Most of the tire producer will still rely on domestic and Asian countries rather than export it to
US and European market which still has unfavorable condition. (Joko)
TLKM AGM Result 2012 (TJP) Following the AGM held last Friday, PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM IJ) is distributing cash
dividend of IDR7.07tn, which is about 55% of 2012 net profit. This is equivalent to IDR369/share,
implying a dividend yield of 3.15% based on the end price of IDR11,700 on April 19 2013. Special cash
dividend will also be distributed of IDR1.29tn, 10% of the net profit or IDR67/share. The total dividend
will be paid on June 18 2013 after the ex-date on May 30. Also, the company approved the stock split
from 1 to 5, i.e. original IDR250 to IDR50. Last but not least, Mr Gatot Trihargo is appointed as the
Commissioner with the term ending in 2018.
Comment: This is in line with his expectation (last report 7 March 2013), supported by good control
operating costs. Higher revenue offset the higher interconnection costs, hence the EBITDA margin was
expanded by 30bps to 51.5%. We have a hold with a target price of IDR9,000. (Chandra)
The leaders on Danareksa coverage
Price as on
Code 22-Apr-13 19-Apr-13 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Ace Hardware ACES
1,050
960
9.4
19.3
32.9
28.0 HOLD
Ramayana RALS
1,440
1,380
4.3
3.6
11.6
18.0 BUY
Mayora MYOR
30,000
29,000
3.4 -
15.4
50.0 BUY
Vale Indonesia INCO
2,575
2,500
3.0
5.1
3.0
10.8 HOLD
Telkom TLKM
12,000
11,700
2.6
7.6
13.7
32.6 HOLD
Wintermar Offshore Marine WINS
445
435
2.3
(1.1)
7.2
(7.3) BUY
Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI
7,300
7,150
2.1
3.5
2.8
5.8 BUY
Mitra Adi Perkasa MAPI
8,550
8,400
1.8
3.6
8.9
28.6 BUY
Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG
38,000
37,350
1.7
1.3
14.1
(8.5) SELL
United Tractors UNTR
18,200
17,900
1.7
(1.9)
5.2
(7.6) HOLD
Sources: Bloomberg
The laggards on Danareksa coverage
Price as on
Code 22-Apr-13 19-Apr-13 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
BW Plantation BWPT
1,010
1,130
(10.6)
(15.8)
(22.3)
(26.8) BUY
Metropolitan Land MTLA
580
610
(4.9)
(1.7)
(3.3)
7.4 BUY
Alam Sutera ASRI
1,040
1,080
(3.7)
2.0
(3.7)
73.3 BUY
Indocement INTP
24,500
25,200
(2.8)
3.8
10.6
9.1 HOLD
Holcim SMCB
3,625
3,725
(2.7)
(0.7)
2.1
25.0 BUY
Gajah Tunggal GJTL
2,850
2,925
(2.6)
15.2
15.2
28.1 BUY
Jaya Agra Wattie JAWA
385
395
(2.5)
(1.3)
4.1
1.3 BUY
Adhi Karya ADHI
3,000
3,075
(2.4)
1.7
1.7
69.5 BUY
Semen Indonesia SMGR
18,400
18,850
(2.4)
3.7
9.2
17.2 BUY
Adaro Energy ADRO
1,230
1,260
(2.4)
(3.1)
(4.7)
(22.6) HOLD
Sources: Bloomberg
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