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See important disclosure on the back of this report
Danareksa Snapshot Thursday, January 29, 2015
From Research:
Construction: Infrastructure development ready to take off
(OVERWEIGHT)
We have just attended the one-day infrastructure conference held by
Berita Satu Group which featured a number of high-profile speakers from
PT Pelindo II (IPC), PT Angkasa Pura I, PT Penjaminan Infrastruktur
Indonesia (PII), and the South Sumatera government, among others. The
speakers all conveyed a similar message, i.e. the urgent need to
accelerate infrastructure development in Indonesia to reduce the high
logistics costs. In this regard, the speakers expressed confidence in the
new government’s ability to deliver substantial improvements in
infrastructure development nationwide. Encouragingly, the draft revised
state budget significantly raises budget allocations on infrastructure
spending going forward. This, we believe, will directly benefit the state-
contractors as the main agent of infrastructure development.
Ramayana Lestari Sentosa: Turnaround in store (RALS IJ. Rp 815.
BUY. TP Rp 910)
RALS’s unaudited operational numbers show a 0.6% yoy decline in total
sales to Rp7,916 bn in FY14 – inline with our expectation. SSG was also
lower at 0.6% by the end of 2014, mainly due to weak performance of
the “out of Java” stores. Nonetheless, we expect 2015 to be a much
better year for RALS and we maintain our conservative net profit growth
target of 8.8%. BUY maintained with a Target Price of Rp910, implying
FY15-16F PE of 15.8-14.5x.
From Today’s Headlines: (please see our analysts’ comment inside)
Astra Agro acquires Dumai refinery to boost business (TJP)
BBRI's dividend of RP4.4tn; PGAS estimated dividend at Rp2.5tn (ID)
BMRI Runs into Regional’s Best (ID)
From IDX:
Cash Announcement Code Ex-Date Date Payable Amount (Rp) ADRO 05-Jan-2014 16-Jan-2014 US$ 0.00094 AISA 05-Jan-2014 14-Jan-2014 8.5 Source: KSEI
Key Index
Close
Chg Ytd Vol
(%) (%) (US$ m)
Asean - 5
Indonesia 5,269 (0.2) 0.8 329
Thailand 1,593 0.2 6.4 1,720
Philippines 7,661 0.4 6.0 234
Malaysia 1,796 (0.4) 2.0 603
Singapore 3,419 0.2 1.6 920
Regional
China 3,306 (1.4) 2.2 67,080
Hong Kong 24,862 0.2 5.3 10,432
Japan 17,796 0.2 2.0 12,485
Korea 1,950 (0.6) 1.8 4,252
Taiwan 9,511 (0.1) 2.2 2,631
India 29,559 (0.0) 7.5 645
NASDAQ 4,638 (0.9) (2.1) 92,238
Dow Jones 17,191 (1.1) (3.5) 8,130
Currency and Interest Rate
Rate
w-w m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Rupiah (Rp/1US$) 12,487 (0.0) (0.4) (0.8)
SBI rate (%) 6.93 0.0 0.0 (0.3)
10-y Govt Indo bond 7.23 (0.1) (0.7) (0.6)
Hard Commodities
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Coal US$/ton 62 n/a (0.6) (27.0)
Gold US$/toz 1,286 0.1 8.6 8.5
Nickel US$/mt.ton 14,993 1.8 (1.7) (0.5)
Tin US$/mt.ton 19,201 (0.4) 0.9 (1.2)
Soft Commodities
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,814 0.4 (6.5) (1.6)
Corn US$/mt.ton 138 (1.8) (8.0) (13.6)
Crude Oil US$/barrel 48 (2.3) (18.5) (15.5)
Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,168 (1.7) (2.6) (15.7)
Rubber USd/kg 141 0.3 (4.5) (7.5)
Pulp US$/tonne 930 n/a (0.2) 2.6
Coffee US$/60kgbag 131 0.7 5.0 33.4
Sugar US$/MT 392 (0.5) (0.0) 0.2
Wheat US$/mt.ton 186 (2.6) (17.3) (14.3)
Source: Bloomberg
PT Danareksa Sekuritas Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14 Jakarta 10110 Indonesia Tel (62 21) 350 9777, 350 9888 Fax (62 21) 350 1709
Our Research team and sector coverage: Agriculture: Helmy Kristanto - [email protected]; (62-21) 2955 824 Automotive: Helmy Kristanto - [email protected]; (62-21) 2955 824 Auto Component: Joko Sogie - [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3512 Banking: Eka Savitri - [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3509 Cement: Helmy Kristanto - [email protected]; (62-21) 2955 824 Coal: Stefanus Darmagiri – [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3530 Construction: Joko Sogie - [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3512 Consumer: Jennifer Frederika Yapply - [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3508 Heavy Equipment: Stefanus Darmagiri – [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3530 Media: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA – [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3520 Metal Mining: Stefanus Darmagiri – [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3530 Pharmaceutical: Armando Marulitua – [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3503 Property: Anindya Saraswati - [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3506 Retail: Anindya Saraswati - [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3506 Strategy: Helmy Kristanto - [email protected]; (62-21) 2955 824 Telecommunication: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA – [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3520 Transportation: Joko Sogie - [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3512 Utilities: Helmy Kristanto - [email protected]; (62-21) 2955 824
Our Sales team: Ermawati A. Erman - [email protected]; (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3151 Asfarita Andalusia - [email protected]; (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3134 Novrita E. Putrianti - [email protected]; (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3128 Ehrliech Suhartono - [email protected]; (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3132 Yunita L. Nababan - [email protected]; (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3145 Bram Taarea – [email protected]; (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3127 Martin Joshua - [email protected]; (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3126 Laksmita Armandani - [email protected]; (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3125 Muhammad Hardiansyah - [email protected]; (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3109 Upik Yuzarni – [email protected]; (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3137
Construction Infrastructure development ready to take off We have just attended the one-day infrastructure conference held by Berita Satu Group which featured a number of high-profile speakers from PT Pelindo II (IPC), PT Angkasa Pura I, PT Penjaminan Infrastruktur Indonesia (PII), and the South Sumatera government, among others. The speakers all conveyed a similar message, i.e. the urgent need to accelerate infrastructure development in Indonesia to reduce the high logistics costs. In this regard, the speakers expressed confidence in the new government’s ability to deliver substantial improvements in infrastructure development nationwide. Encouragingly, the draft revised state budget significantly raises budget allocations on infrastructure spending going forward. This, we believe, will directly benefit the state-contractors as the main agent of infrastructure development. High logistics costs are a problem Pelindo II (IPC) President Director, RJ Lino explained that high logistics costs have always been a main concern for investors in Indonesia. Within the region, the ratio of logistics costs to GDP is the highest in Indonesia at 24.6% or equivalent to Rp3,000tn in 2012. The high logistics costs are driven by high inventory costs (8.7% of GDP) and high land transportation costs (8.2% of GDP). The former relates to a lack of reliable government bureaucracy (i.e. long dwelling time) and high interest costs while the latter reflects the fact that more than 90% of logistics in Indonesia are dependent on land transportation rather than sea transportation. In relation to this, it is worth noting that logistics costs for land transportation are almost ten times higher than those of sea transportation. Sea toll road concept as the solution President Jokowi has put forward his government’s ‘sea toll road’ concept as the solution to the country’s high logistics costs. This concept is, in essence, the continuity of the past ‘Pendulum Nusantara’ vision, initiated by IPC. Under the sea toll road concept, not only would physical infrastructure – such as seaports – be built, but a network connectivity of seaports would also be optimized from North Sumatera (Belawan) to West Papua (Sorong) to improve efficiency on the back of better management (i.e. implementation of INAPORT). To capture this opportunity, there is a chance that the merge of Pelindo I to IV could existed to align all sea toll road program. In this regard, Jokowi plans to substantially increase the number of seaports from 278 in 2014 to 450 in 2019. Along with the planned development of road infrastructure and railways, the new government expects that the ratio of logistics costs to GDP can be reduced to 19.2% by 2019. Higher allocations on infrastructure spending in the revised state budget The significantly higher budget allocations on infrastructure spending in the recent draft revised 2015 state budget will help the government to realize its sea toll road concept, we believe. With the reduction in fuel subsidies, the government substantially increased the budgets for the Ministry of Public Works and the Transportation Ministry to Rp119tn (+41%) and Rp65tn (+45%), respectively. These two ministries have been given the largest allocations at 9.2% of the government’s total expenditures in 2015. Furthermore, the budget allocation for sea transportation has almost been doubled to Rp23tn in 2015, with the government focusing on the development of new seaports at 77 different locations.
Thursday, 29 Jan 2015
OVERWEIGHT
Jakprop relative to JCI Index
Danareksa research reports are also available at Reuters Multex and First Call Direct and Bloomberg.
Joko Sogie (62-21) 2955 5827 [email protected]
2
Construction Sector 29-Jan-15
Exhibit 1. Breakdown of logistic costs in Indonesia
Source: IPC
Exhibit 2. Substantial increases in the budgets of the Ministry of Public Works and the Transportation Ministry
*Notes: 2006-2013: Budget realization (LKPP); 2014F-2015F: Revised state budget (APBN-P)
Source: RAPBN-P 2015, Ministry of Finance
Exhibit 3. Transportation Ministry budget details Programs APBN 2015,
Rp tn RAPBN-P 2015,
Rp tn Chg,
%
Land transportation 4.04 6.08 50.5
Sea transportation 11.32 22.84 101.8
Air transportation 10.03 11.75 17.1
Rail transportation 14.36 18.67 30.0
Others 5.18 5.61 8.3
TOTAL 44.93 64.95 44.6
Additional priority program Budget increase, Rp tn
1. Seaports at 77 locations (sea toll road concept) 11.93
2. Multi-purpose training ships and aircraft 2.14
3. Railroad infrastructure, double-track, and 1,000 Transit Buses 6.89
TOTAL 20.96
Source: RAPBN-P 2015, Ministry of Finance
3
Construction Sector 29-Jan-15
Thursday, 29 January 2015
2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F
Revenue, Rp bn 7,454 7,968 7,665 7,894 8,336
EBITDA, Rp bn 590 576 564 617 675
EBITDA growth, % 10.5 (2.3) (2.2) 9.5 9.3
Net profit, Rp bn 424 391 375 409 444
Core profit, Rp bn 424 391 375 409 444
Core EPS, Rp 59.7 55.0 52.9 57.6 62.6
Core EPS growth, % 12.6 (7.8) (3.9) 8.8 8.6
Net gearing, % (43.5) (39.6) (39.4) (38.8) (38.9)
Core PER, x 13.6 14.8 15.4 14.2 13.0
PBV, x 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5
EV/EBITDA, x 7.6 7.8 7.9 7.1 6.4
Yield, % 3.9 4.4 4.1 3.9 4.2
RETAIL/COMPANY UPDATE
Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Turnaround in store
RALS’s unaudited operational numbers show a 0.6% yoy decline in total sales to Rp7,916 bn in FY14 – inline with our expectation. SSG was also lower at 0.6% by the end of 2014, mainly due to weak performance of the “out of Java” stores. Nonetheless, we expect 2015 to be a much better year for RALS and we maintain our conservative net profit growth target of 8.8%. BUY maintained with a Target Price of Rp910, implying FY15-16F PE of 15.8-14.5x. Inline FY14 sales RALS recorded Rp715 bn of sales in December 2014, bringing the total FY14 unaudited sales to Rp7,916 bn, some 0.6% lower than 2013’s total sales of Rp7,965 bn. Although the result is quite weak, it is inline with our expectation since we had anticipated that 2014 would be a tough year for RALS with demand weak due to: 1) continued softening in the exports sector for commodities, 2) an underperforming supermarket business and 3) more challenging economic conditions. Going forward, we still maintain our conservative view of flat topline growth for RALS in 2015. Weak performance of the “out of Java” stores Regionally, the “out of Java” stores still contributed the most to the company’s total sales in FY14, accounting for 42.8% of total sales. In second place were the Jakarta and Greater Jakarta stores (31.5%) followed by the Java stores (25.7%). Although still providing the largest contribution, the “out of Java” stores have been affected by weaker consumer buying power, especially given the lackluster performance of the commodity sector. This is reflected in the negative SSG recorded by the “out of Java” stores at -1.5% up to December 2014. As a result, RALS’s overall SSG was dragged down to only 0.6% in FY14 – although the Jakarta stores recorded SSG of 2.5% and its Java stores 2.1% SSG. Expansion will be focused on Java The company didn’t undertake any expansion in 2014 since its focus was on improving profitability. In fact, RALS actually closed some of its underperforming stores, reducing the total gross sales area to 988,787 sqm at the end of 2014 from 1,006,781 sqm in 2013. For its expansion in 2015, the company has already secured six locations: Bogor (2 stores), Solo, Malang, Semarang, and Sumedang – all in Java as the management still sees no sign in the recovery of commodity prices which would boost consumer purchasing power in the other major islands. BUY maintained, TP of Rp910 Although the company showed weak performance in 2014, we still believe that 2015 will be a better year for RALS. Support will come from: 1) improvements in the supermarket business, 2) a bigger proportion of consignment products, and 3) higher consumer purchasing power. Nonetheless, we still set a very conservative target of only 8.8% yoy net profits growth in 2015F. BUY maintained.
BUY Target Price, IDR 910
Upside 11.7%
RALS IJ/RALS.JK
Last Price, IDR 815
No. of shares (bn) 7.1
Market Cap, IDR bn 5,783 (USD mn) 463
3M T/O, USDmn 0.5
Last Recommendation
22-Des-14 BUY IDR 980
18-Aug-14 BUY IDR 1,040
17-Jul-14 HOLD IDR 860
RALS relative to JCI Index
Market Recommendation
Consensus
Our Cons % Diff
Target Price, IDR 910 871 4.5
EPS 2015F, IDR 57.6 57.5 0.1
PE 2015F, x 14.2 14.2 0.2
Danareksa research reports are also available at Reuters Multex and First Call Direct and Bloomberg.
Anindya Saraswati (62-21) 2955 820 [email protected]
29 January 2015 Ramayana Lestari Sentosa
2
Exhibit 1. RALS’s monthly sales (Rp bn)
Source: Company
Exhibit 2. Sales by region
Source: Company Exhibit 3. Expecting 5.4% store space growth in 2015
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
29 January 2015 Ramayana Lestari Sentosa
3
Exhibit 5. Income Statement (Rp bn)
2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F
Sales 7,454 7,968 7,665 7,894 8,336
COGS 5,479 5,828 5,641 5,765 6,086
Gross profit 1,975 2,140 2,024 2,129 2,250
EBITDA 590 576 564 617 675
Operating income 418 399 370 406 444
Interest income 48 55 52 55 58
Other income (exp) 29 4 17 17 17
Pre-tax income 495 458 439 477 519
Income tax (71) (67) (63) (69) (75)
Net income 424 391 375 409 444 Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 6. Balance sheet (Rp bn)
2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F
Cash and cash equivalent 1,169 869 919 969 1,053
Account receivables 10 20 11 11 12
Inventories 763 872 786 803 848
Other current assets 376 613 619 620 622
Total current assets 2,319 2,375 2,334 2,403 2,534
PPE 1,202 1,445 1,552 1,691 1,810
Long term rent - net 510 503 503 503 503
Others 42 55 55 55 55
Total assets 4,073 4,379 4,445 4,652 4,903
Account payable 757 908 779 797 841
Other current liabilites 115 55 109 115 124
Total current liabilities 872 963 889 912 965
Other long term liabilities 160 198 198 198 198
Total non-current liabilities 160 198 198 198 198
Total liabilities 1,031 1,161 1,087 1,110 1,163
Capital stock 355 355 355 355 355
Additional paid in 118 118 118 118 118
Unrealized gain on stock (6) (8) (8) (8) (8)
Retained earnings 2,576 2,753 2,894 3,078 3,276
Total liabilities and equity 4,073 4,379 4,445 4,652 4,903 Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
29 January 2015 Ramayana Lestari Sentosa
4
Exhibit 7. Statement of cash flow (Rp bn)
2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F
Cash flow from operating activities
Cash receipt from sales 7,469 7,964 7,665 7,894 8,336
Cash payment to suppliers & employees (6,657) (7,057) (7,086) (7,272) (7,656)
Payments for income taxes (66) (88) (63) (69) (75)
Receipt of interest income 53 53 52 55 58
Others 25 (40) 17 17 17
Net cash flow from operating activities 824 831 585 625 679
Cash flow from investing activities
Additional PPE (228) (422) (300) (350) (350)
Proceed (placement) from sale of ST investment 269 - - - -
Placement ST investment (40) - - - -
Additional advance to long term rent (339) (249) - - -
Proceed from sale of PPE 3 3 - - -
Additional of security deposit (33) (251) - - -
Others (1) (0) - - -
Net cash flow from investing activities (369) (919) (300) (350) (350)
Cash flow from financing activities
Dividend payment (213) (213) (234) (225) (245)
Option exercised - - - - -
Others - - - - -
Net cash flow from financing activities (213) (213) (234) (225) (245)
Changes in cash and cash equivalent 242 (300) 50 49 84
Forex - - - - -
Beginning balance 927 1,169 869 919 969
Ending balance 1,169 869 919 969 1,053
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas Exhibit 8. Ratios
2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F
Profitability (%) Gross profit margin 26.5 26.9 26.4 27.0 27.0
Operating margin 5.6 5.0 4.8 5.1 5.3
Pretax margin 6.6 5.7 5.7 6.0 6.2
Net margin 5.7 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.3
ROA 10.8 9.2 8.5 9.0 9.3
ROE 14.4 12.5 11.4 11.8 12.2
Leverage Net debt/equity (%) (43.5) (39.6) (39.4) (38.8) (38.9)
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
29 January 2015 Ramayana Lestari Sentosa
5
In the interest of timeliness, this product was not edited
Astra Agro acquires Dumai refinery to boost business (TJP)
PT Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) announced on Wednesday (28/01/2015) that the company had officially acquired 50%
stake in PT Kreasijaya Adhikarya for Rp 75 billion (US$ 5.9 million), giving AALI access to refinery to boost its
downstream products. The remaining 50% is owned by KL-Kepong Plantation Holdings Sdn. Bhd (KLKPH).
Previously, AALI has also established a joint venture partnership in August 2013 with Singapore-based arms of
KLKPH to market its olein and stearin.
BBRI's dividend of RP4.4tn; PGAS estimated dividend at Rp2.5tn (ID)
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBRI) 2014 dividend is projected to increase 25% to Rp4.4 trillion.
Recently, BBRI published its financial earnings, recording profit of Rp24.02 trillion, rising 14.35% YoY, backed
mainly by credit distribution. On the flip side, PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGAS) is targeted to contribute
dividend of Rp2.5 trillion. PGAS is also claimed to have biggest cut in dividend of SOE’s listed company.
BMRI Runs into Regional’s Best (ID)
Post the planned Rp9.3tn rights issue, PT Bank Mandiri (BMRI) is projected to rank seventh in regional banking
industry. The rights issue is also one of the fastest way to strengthen the capital to be Qualified Asean Banks (QAB).
QAB consists of big capital banks that have at least 17.5% CAR. BMRI also predicts 2015 profit to reach Rp21.12
trillion will the help of the rights issue. The company also targets by doubling infrastructure loans, to up to
Rp303tn by 2020.
Price Mkt Cap
Target Rp Bn 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2015
Danareksa Universe 3,145,446 202,194 229,846 309.3 351.6 11% 14% 15.6 13.7 #VALUE! #VALUE! 2.8 2.5 19.2
Auto 332,409 25,124 29,427 460.2 539.0 18% 17% 13.2 11.3 10.7 9.2 2.3 2.0 18.9
Astra International BUY 7,825 8,300 316,784 23,976 28,096 592 694 16% 17% 13.2 11.3 10.9 9.4 2.4 2.1 33.5 19.1
Gajah Tunggal BUY 1,460 2,000 5,088 730 895 209 257 183% 23% 7.0 5.7 5.2 4.7 0.8 0.7 75.3 11.5
Selamat Sempurna BUY 4,755 5,300 6,846 419 437 291 303 14% 4% 16.4 15.7 9.4 8.9 4.8 4.1 net cash 32.3
Banks 1,021,081 81,035 91,666 752.3 851.0 12% 13% 12.6 11.1 2.5 2.1 21.0
BCA HOLD 13,275 12,100 327,295 18,714 21,363 742 856 11% 15% 17.9 15.5 NA NA 3.6 3.0 NA 22.1
BNI BUY 6,175 6,750 115,155 10,981 12,397 589 665 11% 13% 10.5 9.3 NA NA 1.8 1.6 NA 18.6
BRI BUY 11,700 13,150 288,629 26,786 30,574 1,086 1,239 13% 14% 10.8 9.4 NA NA 2.5 2.0 NA 25.0
Bank Tabungan Negara BUY 1,010 1,400 10,673 1,199 1,441 114 137 11% 21% 8.9 7.4 NA NA 0.8 0.8 NA 9.4
Bank Mandiri BUY 10,975 12,400 256,083 21,218 23,420 909 1,004 9% 10% 12.1 10.9 NA NA 2.2 1.9 NA 19.5
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan BUY 3,980 5,450 23,244 2,137 2,472 366 423 17% 16% 10.9 9.4 NA NA 1.7 1.4 NA 16.7
Cement 185,585 12,525 15,375 725 890 7% 23% 14.8 12.1 9.0 8.0 2.8 2.5 20.0
Holcim HOLD 1,965 2,300 15,058 923 1,213 120 158 12% 31% 16.3 12.4 8.3 6.5 1.4 1.3 30.0 9.1
Indocement BUY 23,000 28,300 84,668 5,741 6,595 1,559 1,792 8% 15% 14.7 12.8 8.8 7.4 3.0 2.7 net cash 21.2
Semen Indonesia BUY 14,475 18,800 85,859 5,861 7,567 988 1,276 5% 29% 14.6 11.3 9.4 8.9 3.2 2.7 12.3 23.2
Construction 123,725 4,779 5,645 126 148 27% 18% 25.9 21.9 12.8 11.2 4.2 3.6 17.2
Jasa Marga BUY 7,125 7,600 48,450 1,742 1,959 256 288 10% 12% 27.8 24.7 15.0 13.9 3.8 3.5 113.5 14.1
Wijaya Karya BUY 3,675 4,000 22,598 843 1,004 137 164 37% 19% 26.7 22.5 11.0 9.2 3.8 3.3 8.9 15.4
Pembangunan Perumahan BUY 3,800 4,100 18,401 762 936 157 193 29% 23% 24.2 19.7 10.7 9.0 5.9 4.7 17.1 27.1
Adhi Karya BUY 3,640 3,900 6,557 419 530 232 294 56% 27% 15.7 12.4 8.2 7.0 3.2 2.7 92.7 22.4
Waskita Karya BUY 1,640 1,650 15,953 618 725 64 75 47% 17% 25.6 21.8 13.5 11.8 4.9 4.1 40.0 20.5
Wika Beton HOLD 1,350 1,350 11,766 396 491 45 56 32% 24% 29.7 23.9 16.3 13.3 4.7 4.0 net cash 17.1
Consumer 526,641 18,573 21,062 232 263 13% 13% 28.4 25.0 19.2 17.0 7.9 7.0 29.7
Indofood CBP BUY 14,700 13,800 85,715 3,408 3,968 584 680 20% 16% 25.2 21.6 17.2 15.0 5.3 4.6 net cash 22.3
Indofood BUY 7,400 7,600 64,975 5,942 6,572 563 623 18% 11% 13.1 11.9 7.4 6.6 2.2 2.0 14.8 21.0
Kalbe Farma HOLD 1,860 1,900 87,188 2,481 2,895 53 62 18% 17% 35.1 30.1 24.1 20.6 8.2 7.1 net cash 25.1
Kimia Farma BUY 1,295 1,550 7,192 312 379 56 68 31% 21% 23.0 19.1 16.4 13.7 3.5 3.0 net cash 16.1
Unilever SELL 35,500 26,000 270,865 5,972 6,717 783 880 10% 12% 45.4 40.3 32.1 28.6 51.1 46.8 21.0 124.3
Nippon Indosari Corpindo BUY 1,400 1,700 7,087 248 306 49 61 27% 23% 28.5 23.1 15.7 13.2 6.1 4.9 43.4 23.3
Mandom BUY 18,000 19,300 3,619 210 226 1,045 1,126 8% 8% 17.2 16.0 9.3 8.6 2.5 2.3 2.6 15.3
Heavy Equipment 70,929 6,144 6,734 1,344 1,474 7% 10% 11.5 10.5 5.0 4.1 1.7 1.5 15.2
Hexindo Adiperkasa HOLD 3,620 3,650 3,041 220 260 262 309 13% 18% 13.8 11.7 6.7 5.4 1.1 1.0 net cash 8.0
United Tractors BUY 18,200 23,300 67,888 5,924 6,475 1,588 1,736 7% 9% 11.5 10.5 4.9 4.1 1.7 1.5 net cash 15.7
Mining 134,437 9,730 11,016 150 169 6% 13% 13.8 12.2 6.2 5.5 1.4 1.3 10.2
Adaro Energy BUY 995 1,280 31,826 2,607 2,662 82 83 -7% 2% 12.2 12.0 4.8 4.4 1.0 1.0 37.0 8.1
Timah BUY 1,175 1,400 8,751 651 765 87 103 40% 18% 13.4 11.4 6.5 5.8 1.6 1.5 10.2 12.4
Vale Indonesia BUY 3,560 4,700 35,373 2,240 2,753 225 277 23% 23% 15.8 12.8 6.7 5.4 1.5 1.4 2.5 10.0
Aneka Tambang HOLD 1,050 1,100 10,015 194 400 20 42 -148% 106% 51.5 25.1 16.7 12.3 0.8 0.8 62.8 1.6
Bukit Asam BUY 11,525 15,500 26,555 2,031 2,170 934 998 -1% 7% 12.3 11.5 8.9 8.1 2.8 2.5 net cash 22.7
Indo Tambangraya Megah HOLD 15,400 21,500 17,401 1,888 2,064 1,671 1,827 -13% 9% 9.2 8.4 4.0 3.7 1.7 1.7 net cash 18.5
Harum Energy HOLD 1,670 1,750 4,515 119 202 44 75 -53% 69% 37.9 22.4 6.2 4.8 1.2 1.2 net cash 3.1
Plantation 64,552 5,510 5,938 211 227 11% 8% 11.7 10.9 6.3 5.7 1.7 1.6 14.9
Astra Agro Lestari BUY 23,675 27,100 37,282 2,770 2,832 1,759 1,798 4% 2% 13.5 13.2 8.1 7.6 3.2 2.9 net cash 24.5
Sampoerna Agro BUY 1,910 2,600 3,610 464 550 245 291 18% 19% 7.8 6.6 5.0 4.3 1.1 1.0 31.8 14.5
PP London Sumatra HOLD 1,845 2,090 12,588 1,055 1,133 155 166 8% 7% 11.9 11.1 6.2 5.4 1.6 1.5 net cash 13.9
Salim Ivomas Pratama BUY 700 850 11,071 1,221 1,423 77 90 33% 17% 9.1 7.8 4.6 4.1 0.7 0.7 37.6 8.2
Property 81,879 5,943 6,634 81 90 -25% 12% 13.8 12.3 10.4 9.1 1.9 1.7 14.4
Alam Sutera BUY 595 700 11,691 1,254 1,516 64 77 15% 21% 9.3 7.7 8.8 7.5 1.6 1.4 75.3 18.9
Bumi Serpong Damai BUY 1,990 2,100 36,560 2,369 2,617 135 150 -36% 10% 14.7 13.3 12.3 10.8 2.4 2.1 net cash 16.6
Metropolitan Land BUY 435 620 3,297 290 322 38 43 14% 11% 11.4 10.2 7.7 7.1 1.5 1.3 27.7 14.2
Surya Semesta Internusa HOLD 1,100 1,040 5,176 464 415 99 88 32% -11% 11.2 12.5 5.1 5.2 1.8 1.6 net cash 16.9
Lippo Karawaci BUY 1,090 1,200 25,155 1,565 1,763 72 82 -38% 13% 15.1 13.4 11.6 9.9 1.6 1.4 29.1 10.1
Telco & Infrastructure 448,897 20,368 24,337 149 178 24% 19% 22.0 18.4 6.4 5.7 3.5 3.2 17.1
XL Axiata BUY 4,890 5,450 41,734 329 717 39 84 -153% 118% 126.7 58.2 6.6 5.9 2.9 2.7 124.1 2.3
Indosat HOLD 4,100 3,820 22,279 312 588 57 108 -152% 89% 71.4 37.9 3.8 3.5 1.4 1.3 132.4 2.0
Telkom BUY 2,845 3,250 286,776 16,211 18,544 161 184 6% 14% 17.7 15.5 5.6 4.9 3.6 3.3 net cash 21.8
Sarana Menara Nusantara BUY 4,030 4,525 41,118 1,702 2,121 167 208 35% 25% 24.2 19.4 12.0 10.3 6.3 5.0 107.9 29.8
Tower Bersama SELL 9,400 6,600 45,087 1,629 2,042 320 367 3% 15% 29.4 25.6 14.6 13.6 3.7 3.1 98.7 18.2
MNC Sky Vision HOLD 1,685 1,710 11,903 184 324 26 46 71% 76% 64.7 36.7 9.9 8.3 5.9 5.3 117.0 9.5
Tranportation 27,523 1,253 1,554 501 621 62% 24% 22.0 17.7 12.0 9.9 6.2 4.9 32.3
Blue Bird BUY 11,000 12,200 27,523 1,253 1,554 501 621 62% 24% 22.0 17.7 12.0 9.9 6.2 4.9 47.8 32.3
Utility 126,662 11,088 10,313 457 425 3% -7% 11.4 12.3 7.7 8.3 3.1 2.8 28.7
PGN BUY 5,225 6,650 126,662 11,088 10,313 457 425 3% -7% 11.4 12.3 7.7 8.3 3.1 2.8 net cash 28.7
Retail 28,650 1,376 1,698 53 66 28% 23% 20.8 16.9 #VALUE! #VALUE! 3.1 2.7 15.7
Mitra Adi Perkasa BUY 5,975 6,250 9,919 352 543 212 327 112% 54% 28.2 18.3 9.0 7.5 3.5 3.0 84.7 13.0
Ramayana BUY 815 910 5,783 409 444 58 63 9% 9% 14.2 13.0 7.1 6.4 1.6 1.5 net cash 11.8
Ace Hardware BUY 755 920 12,948 615 711 36 41 17% 14% 21.0 18.4 #VALUE! #VALUE! 4.6 3.8 #VALUE! 23.8
Net Gearing ROE EPS Growth PER (x) EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x)Equity
Valuation Rating Price (Rp)
Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp)
The leaders on Danareksa coverage
Price as on
Code 28-Jan-15 27-Jan-15 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Wijaya Karya WIKA
3,675
3,630
1.2
2.2
(1.2)
(0.1) BUY
Bukit Asam PTBA
11,525
11,400
1.1
3.4
(8.0)
(7.8) BUY
Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN
1,010
1,000
1.0 -
(16.2)
(16.2) BUY
Harum Energy HRUM
1,670
1,655
0.9
(4.0)
(2.6)
0.6 HOLD
Kimia Farma KAEF
1,295
1,285
0.8
(1.1)
(11.0)
(11.6) BUY
Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP
700
695
0.7 -
(1.4)
(0.7) BUY
Indosat ISAT
4,100
4,075
0.6
(3.9)
4.2
1.2 HOLD
Bank Central Asia BBCA
13,275
13,200
0.6
1.5
1.0
1.1 HOLD
Hexindo Adiperkasa HEXA
3,620
3,600
0.6
(7.2)
3.4
3.3 HOLD
Telkom TLKM
2,845
2,830
0.5
(2.4)
(0.2)
(0.7) BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
The laggards on Danareksa coverage
Price as on
Code 28-Jan-15 27-Jan-15 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE
1,990
2,100
(5.2)
(3.4)
11.2
10.2 BUY
Tower Bersama TBIG
9,400
9,750
(3.6)
(1.1)
(2.8)
(3.1) SELL
Astra Agro Lestari AALI
23,675
24,275
(2.5)
(2.1)
(0.3)
(2.4) BUY
Gajah Tunggal GJTL
1,460
1,490
(2.0)
15.0
5.0
2.5 BUY
Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI
11,700
11,925
(1.9)
2.4
0.4
0.4 BUY
Selamat Sempurna SMSM
4,755
4,830
(1.6)
(3.9)
(5.4)
0.1 BUY
Aneka Tambang ANTM
1,050
1,065
(1.4) -
(4.1)
(1.4) HOLD
Metropolitan Land MTLA
435
441
(1.4)
0.9
(3.3)
(2.2) BUY
XL Axiata EXCL
4,890
4,950
(1.2)
2.8
4.5
0.5 BUY
Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI
1,400
1,415
(1.1)
5.3
1.4
1.1 BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
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