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Equity Research

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research

FROM EQUITY RESEARCH

BBNI: Net Profit Above Expectation (BBNI IJ . Rp5,025. BUY. TP Rp5,850) BBNI reported Net Interest Income (NII) of Rp25.6 tn and Pre Provisioning Operating Profit (PPOP) of Rp18.8 tn which were 5% and 3% above our expectation. However, BBNI Net Profit at Rp9.1 tn amply exceeding our (and consensus expectation), as our provision estimate was too high. In 2016, BBNI is targeting quite aggressive higher loan growth at 16-18% which is higher than the industry target loan growth of 12-15%. The management informed that a large part of the loan growth will be supported by infrastructure loans. We maintain our BUY recommendation with TP of Rp5,850 implying PBV of 1.3 – 1.2x for FY16F and FY17F respectively.

MARKET NEWS

*Analysts’ comment inside

BBNI aims double digit growth (BI) BMRI to spur the use of E-cash (BI) Ford bid farewell to Indonesia (BI) Govt to put three toll road projects up for bidding in Q1 (TJP) HM Sampoerna, Antam, and Hanson, enter LQ 45 (BI) SOE consortium to build carriage plant (BI)

Previous Reports:

Construction: All set for a strong year-Snapshot20160125 WIKA: High Speed Railway: so it begins-Snapshot20160122 Cement: ASI: Promoting healthier competition on the industry-

Snapshot20160121 BSDE: Upside surprises in the offing-Snapshot20160120 Construction: Land acquisition process shortened-Snapshot20160119 Automotive: Seasonally weak car sales volume in December 2015-

Snapshot20160118 Banking: Tailwind from lower BI rate-Snapshot20160115 Fuel price cuts: minimal impact-Snapshot20160114

IDX ANNOUNCEMENT Corp Action

Code Action Date Time (WIB) TPIA EGM 25-Jan-16 --.--

TIRA EGM 27-Jan-16 10

PDES EGM 28-Jan-16 --.--

RIMO EGM 29-Jan-16 14

Source: KSEI

MORNING HIGHLIGHT

Key Index

Close

Chg Ytd Vol

(%) (%) (US$ m)

Asean - 5

Indonesia 4,506 1.1 (1.9) 265

Thailand 1,268 (0.0) (1.6) 1,223

Philippines 6,434 3.6 (7.5) 132

Malaysia 1,625 1.5 (4.0) 488

Singapore 2,583 0.2 (10.4) 722

Regional

China 2,939 0.8 (17.0) 42,192

Hong Kong 19,340 1.4 (11.7) 9,587

Japan 17,111 0.9 (10.1) 12,810

Korea 1,893 0.7 (3.5) 3,668

Taiwan 7,894 1.8 (5.3) 2,067

India 24,486 0.2 (6.2) 386

NASDAQ 4,518 (1.6) (9.8) 71,282

Dow Jones 15,885 (1.3) (8.8) 9,180

Currency and Interest Rate

Rate

w-w m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Rupiah Rp/1US$ 13,875 (0.2) (1.8) (0.1)

SBI rate % 6.65 (0.4) (0.5) (0.6)

10y Gov Indo bond 8.40 (0.3) (0.3) (0.3)

Hard Commodities

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Coal US$/ton 49 (0.1) (6.0) (3.3)

Gold US$/toz 1,109 0.1 3.0 4.5

Nickel US$/mt.ton 8,673 (0.4) 0.9 (1.2)

Tin US$/mt.ton 13,760 0.6 (6.2) (5.7)

Soft Commodities

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,933 0.7 (9.6) (10.3)

Corn US$/mt.ton 140 0.3 3.3 4.6

Crude Oil US$/barrel 30 (1.4) (21.4) (19.2)

Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,280 (0.2) 5.5 3.6

Rubber US$/mt ton 110 (0.2) (7.7) (6.6)

Pulp US$/tonne 792 N/A (1.5) (1.4)

Coffee US$/60kgbag 94 0.4 4.7 4.3

Sugar US$/MT 421 (1.8) 1.5 (0.3)

Wheat US$/ton 131 1.3 3.0 2.4

Source: Bloomberg

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Equity Research



PT Danareksa Sekuritas

Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14 Jakarta 10110 Indonesia Tel (62 21) 29 555 888 Fax (62 21) 350 1709

Equity Research Team

Sales team

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5831 Coal, Heavy Equipment, Metal Mining

Stefanus Darmagiri

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5817 Pharmaceutical

Armando Marulitua

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5820 Property, Retail

Anindya Saraswati

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5824 Research Associate

Puti Adani

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3504 Research Associate

Antonia Febe Hartono

[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3151

Ermawati A. Erman


Novrita E. Putrianti


Ehrliech Suhartono


Yunita L. Nababan


Martin Joshua


Laksmita Armandani


Muhammad Hardiansyah


Tuty Sutopo


Upik Yuzarni


Kevin Giarto

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5616 Strategy, Banking

A. Indrajatri Suwono, CFA

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3508 Consumer, Tobacco

Natalia Sutanto

Tuesday, 26 January 2016

BANKING/FY15 RESULT

Bank Negara Indonesia Net Profit Above Expectation

BBNI reported Net Interest Income (NII) of Rp25.6 tn and Pre Provisioning Operating Profit (PPOP) of Rp18.8 tn which were 5% and 3% above our expectation. However, BBNI Net Profit at Rp9.1 tn amply exceeding our (and consensus expectation), as our provision estimate was too high. In 2016, BBNI is targeting quite aggressive higher loan growth at 16-18% which is higher than the industry target loan growth of 12-15%. The management informed that a large part of the loan growth will be supported by infrastructure loans. We maintain our BUY recommendation with TP of Rp5,850 implying PBV of 1.3 – 1.2x for FY16F and FY17F respectively. Loan grew strongly at 17.5% in 2015 The segment that contributed the most to the strong loan growth was Medium segment (Rp51.1 tn) which grew at 26.8%, followed by SOE segment (Rp57.7 tn) with 23.1%. The former’s portion of BBNI total portfolio is 15.7% while the latter’s portion is 17.7%. Infrastructure loan to SOE is mostly channeled to power plants (Rp14.7 tn), transportation (Rp9.7 tn) and oil and gas (Rp9.1 tn). Some of the SOE names are Pertamina, PGN and PTBA. The segment that experienced the highest growth was Overseas segment with 93.8% loan growth but its portion to the total loan portfolio is relatively small at 6.0%. Some of the names in the overseas loans are subsidiaries of Pertamina and Medco. To some extent the growth was also due to the weaker IDR. The Consumer segment (Rp57.5 tn) whose portion is about 17.6% to the total portfolio grew 10.6%. The seven sub-segments in the Consumer recorded mixed results. The Mortgage with Rp34.7 tn outstanding or 80% of the Consumer portfolio only grew 4.0% while auto and multi-purpose loans experienced negative growth of -10.1% and -32.5% respectively. Furthermore, payroll (Rp3.9 tn) grew impressively by 210.6% and the management informed that this segment has yet to reach its full potential, as BBNI has around 1 mn payroll clients, but only about one third have payroll based loans. Credit card loan grew 25.9% to Rp9.8 tn, but largely due to higher credit limit than increase in number of customers. NPL stood at 2.7% The NPL was higher yoy at 2.7% (FY14: 2.0%) but the number is actually better than in 1H15 of 3.0% and 9M15 of 2.8%. The management is targeting NPL to improve to 2.3 – 2.5% by the year end, but during the year, NPL may deteriorate further to around 3.0% which may come from oil and gas sector, especially if price of oil continues to decline. Third party funds grew 18% CASA grew 11.7% to Rp226.3 tn but its percentage to total third party funds declined to 61.1% (FY14: 64.5%). Despite this, CoF was slightly lower at 3.1% (FY14: 3.2%) as BBNI has lowered the special rate on its TDs. With lower CoF and higher average yield on loan of 11.1% (FY14: 10.9%), the NIM slightly improved to 6.4% (FY14: 6.3%).

2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Net interest income, Rp bn 19,058 22,376 24,369 26,643 29,425

PPOP, Rp bn 13,926 16,988 18,204 19,855 21,721

PBT, Rp bn 11,278 13,524 9,478 10,881 12,412

Net income, Rp bn 9,054 10,783 7,506 8,596 9,810 EPS, Rp 486 578 402 461 526

EPS growth, % 29 19 -30 15 14

Dividend yield, % 2.9 2.9 2.0 1.8 2.1

ROE, % 19.9 20.2 12.1 12.6 13.0

PBV, x 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2

PER, x 10.3 8.7 12.5 10.9 9.6

BVPS, Rp 2,552 3,168 3,469 3,838 4,259

Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas

BUY Target Price, Rp 5,850

Upside 16.4%

BBNI IJ/ BBNI.JK

Last Price, Rp 5,025

No. of shares (bn) 18.6

Market Cap, Rp bn 93,709 (US$ mn) 6,754

3M T/O, US$mn 8.79

Last Recommendation

16-Oct-2015 BUY Rp5,850

19-Aug-2015 BUY Rp5,850

FY15 Result, A/F, % (ABOVE)

FY15, Rp bn A/F, %

Net Int. Income 25,560 104.9

PPOP 18,748 103.0

Net profit 9,067 120.8

Key chart: LDR and NPL

Consensus

Our Cons % Diff

Target Price, Rp 5,850 5,666 3

EPS 2016F, Rp 461 592 (22)

PBV 2016F, x 1.3 1.3 0

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Mar

11

Jun

11

Sep

11

Dec

11

Mar

12

Jun

12

Sep

12

Dec

12

Mar

13

Jun

13

Sep

13

Dec

13

Mar

14

Jun

14

Sep

14

Dec

14

Mar

15

Jun

15

Sep

15

Dec

15

LDR (LHS) NPL (RHS)

% %

A. Indrajatri Suwono, CFA (62-21) 2955 5616 [email protected] Danareksa research reports are also available at Reuters Multex and First Call Direct and Bloomberg.

26 January 2016 Bank Negara Indonesia

2

Exhibit 1: BBNI's FY15 result (Rp bn)

FY15 FY14 yoy 4Q15 3Q15 4Q14 yoy qoq FY15F A/F

NII 25,560 22,761 12.3% 6,856 6,444 5,982 14.6% 6.4% 24,369 104.9% PPOP 18,748 16,988 10.4% 4,801 4,860 4,225 13.6% -1.2% 18,204 103.0% Provision (7,336) (3,642) 101.4% (933) (404) (334) 179.3% 130.9% (8,908) 82.4% PBT 11,466 13,524 -15.2% 3,870 4,496 3,931 -1.6% -13.9% 9,478 121.0% Net Profit 9,067 10,783 -15.9% 3,069 3,568 3,172 -3.2% -14.0% 7,506 120.8%

Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas

Exhibit 2: Balance Sheet (Rp bn)

FY15 9M15 FY14 yoy qoq

Total assets 508,595 456,463 416,574 22.1% 11.4% Government bonds 47,222 43,991 43,830 7.7% 7.3% Loans 326,105 307,122 277,622 17.5% 6.2% CASA 226,259 212,852 202,522 11.7% 6.3% Deposits 144,161 136,585 111,371 29.4% 5.5%

Source: Company

Exhibit 2: Balance Sheet (Rp bn)

FY15 9M15 FY14

NPL 2.7 2.8 2.0 LDR 87.8 87.9 85 CAR 19.5 17.4 16.2 NIM 6.4 6.5 6.3 CoF 3.1 3.2 3.2 CIR 44.2 46.2 43.8 ROAE 17.2 16.1 23.6

Source: Company

Equity Research



BBNI aims double digit growth (BI)

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) targets net profit growth to reach double digits in 2016 on the back of brighter prospect for

Indonesian economic outlook and loan disbursement growth target of 18%. BBNI will be more aggressive on credit expansion

this year after major credit restructuring last year.

BMRI to spur the use of E-cash (BI)

Bank Mandiri (BBRI) seeks to maximize the use of E-cash in cooperation with third parties. Senior EVP Transaction Banking BMRI

expects the E-cash can be more easily accessible and widely used by customers. In December 2015, the E-cash has been used

more than 1.7 million users with the value of transactions reached Rp1.9tn. The amount of user E-cash is targeted to reach 50

million by 2020.

Ford bid farewell to Indonesia (BI)

Ford Motor Indonesia officially announced the cessation of operations in Indonesia as it continues to lose money. This policy will

be applied in the 2H16. The termination also includes closing the Ford dealer and sale and import of all vehicles Ford official.

Ford also halted production in Japan. This termination is formal decision from Ford Motor Company headquarters to cease

operations in the region which does not have potential for growth.

Govt to put three toll road projects up for bidding in Q1 (TJP)

The govt plans to put three toll road projects for bidding in 1Q16; Cileunyi-Sumedang-Dawuan (Cisumdawu) in West Java,

Serang-Panimbang in Banten, and Legundi-Bunder in East Java, while the toll road agreement concession (PPJT) will need to be

signed in around 3Q16. For Serang-Panimbang 83.9km toll road location is in the process of being secured, meanwhile

Cisumdawu 58.6km and Legundi-Bunder 29.3km requires necessary document to be gathered prior to bidding. For Cisumdawu,

the govt is in charge for the development of first two sections with total investment of Rp10 tn. Govt is also in process of

considering additional toll road proposed including Jakarta-Cikampek II toll road, and the Jakarta Elevated project, which both

were proposed by Jasa Marga (JSMR). Jakarta-Cikampek II bidding will follow after Legundi-Bunder.

HM Sampoerna, Antam, and Hanson, enter LQ 45 (BI)

HM Sampoerna (HMSP), Antam (ANTM) and Hanson International (MYRX) included as the new residents of LQ45 index, applied

for the February to July 2016 period, while three stocks excluded are XL Axiata (EXCL), Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG) and

Wika Beton (WTON).

SOE consortium to build carriage plant (BI)

Pilar Sinergi BUMN Indonesia, SOE consortium led by Wijaya Karya (WIKA), plans to build a carriage plant for High Speed Rail

Jakarta-Bandung project. Director of WIKA said it had discussed this plan with the Chinese consortium. The investment value of

this carriage factory is expected to be below Rp1tn. Location-making plant will be near the beach to accelerate transport.

MARKET NEWS

Price Mkt Cap

Target Rp Bn 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2015

Danareksa Universe 2,676,093 175,906 189,144 273.5 294.1 -1% 8% 15.2 14.1 12.4 11.8 2.4 2.2 16.8

Auto 257,814 16,781 19,189 307.4 351.5 -15% 14% 15.4 13.4 11.0 10.1 1.9 1.7 12.7

Astra International HOLD 6,125 6,700 247,962 16,050 18,063 396 446 370 412 -16% 13% 15.4 13.7 11.5 10.5 1.9 1.7 34.1 12.9

Gajah Tunggal BUY 492 1,500 1,715 266 633 76 182 140 127 -1% 138% 6.4 2.7 4.1 4.0 0.3 0.3 95.0 4.4

Selamat Sempurna BUY 4,345 5,300 6,255 465 493 323 342 332 352 19% 6% 13.5 12.7 8.2 7.5 4.4 3.6 net cash 36.0

Banks 947,952 73,678 79,865 683.9 741.3 -1% 8% 12.9 11.9 2.3 2.0 19.0

BCA BUY 13,125 15,425 323,597 18,062 19,792 724 794 724 794 8% 10% 18.1 16.5 NA NA 3.6 3.0 NA 21.4

BNI BUY 5,025 5,850 93,710 7,506 8,596 402 461 402 461 -30% 15% 12.5 10.9 NA NA 1.4 1.3 NA 12.1

BRI BUY 11,425 13,400 281,845 24,352 25,863 987 1,048 987 1,048 0% 6% 11.6 10.9 NA NA 2.5 2.1 NA 23.0

Bank Tabungan Negara BUY 1,350 1,450 14,286 1,588 1,964 151 187 151 187 42% 24% 8.9 7.2 NA NA 1.1 0.9 NA 12.4

Bank Mandiri BUY 9,525 11,450 222,250 20,144 21,413 863 918 863 918 1% 6% 11.0 10.4 NA NA 1.9 1.6 NA 18.2

Bank Tabungan Pensiunan BUY 2,100 4,500 12,265 2,026 2,237 347 383 347 383 8% 10% 6.1 5.5 NA NA 0.9 0.8 NA 15.8

Cement 133,063 9,522 9,566 991 995 -13% 0% 14.0 13.9 8.7 8.4 2.4 2.2 17.6

Indocement HOLD 19,550 21,000 71,968 4,915 4,919 1,335 1,336 1,305 1,306 -9% 0% 14.6 14.6 9.1 8.8 2.5 2.3 net cash 16.9

Semen Indonesia BUY 10,300 12,300 61,095 4,608 4,648 777 784 761 767 -17% 1% 13.3 13.1 8.4 8.2 2.4 2.2 5.1 18.4

Construction 116,325 4,375 5,514 100 126 19% 26% 26.6 21.1 12.5 10.4 3.1 2.7 13.8

Jasa Marga BUY 5,725 8,000 38,930 1,531 1,779 480 614 513 657 19% 28% 11.9 9.3 13.2 11.7 3.1 2.8 95.8 12.8

Wijaya Karya HOLD 2,815 2,900 17,310 584 741 95 120 100 126 -5% 27% 29.6 23.4 12.2 9.7 3.1 2.8 28.8 11.1

Pembangunan Perumahan BUY 3,910 4,700 18,934 635 857 131 177 138 185 19% 35% 29.8 22.1 11.5 9.3 5.1 3.6 25.6 20.9

Adhi Karya BUY 2,485 2,750 8,849 397 556 111 156 123 169 22% 40% 22.3 15.9 8.4 7.9 1.8 1.7 net cash 12.1

Waskita Karya BUY 1,725 2,150 23,413 833 1,089 61 80 61 80 19% 31% 28.1 21.5 15.0 11.3 2.6 2.4 net cash 14.2

Wika Beton HOLD 1,020 1,350 8,890 396 491 45 56 46 57 32% 24% 22.5 18.1 11.8 9.5 3.6 3.0 net cash 17.1

Consumer 414,591 13,419 14,186 488 516 7% 6% 30.9 29.2 18.3 17.3 7.3 6.1 25.9

Indofood CBP BUY 14,300 13,800 83,383 3,033 3,308 520 567 520 567 16% 9% 27.5 25.2 19.1 17.9 5.3 4.7 net cash 20.3

Indofood BUY 5,700 7,100 50,048 3,704 4,059 422 462 563 610 -5% 10% 13.5 12.3 6.2 6.0 1.8 1.6 19.5 13.8

Unilever SELL 35,625 30,475 271,819 5,889 6,234 772 817 772 817 3% 6% 46.2 43.6 31.7 30.1 26.6 16.6 net cash 80.4

Nippon Indosari Corpindo BUY 1,200 1,680 6,074 266 309 53 61 53 61 41% 16% 22.8 19.6 13.0 10.6 5.1 4.2 59.5 24.7

Mandom BUY 16,250 21,170 3,267 526 276 2,618 1,375 279 1,373 202% -47% 6.2 11.8 6.9 6.0 1.9 1.9 net cash 35.7

Healthcare 110,970 2,981 3,387 211 266 20% 26% 37.2 32.8 23.4 20.0 6.4 5.7 18.6

Kalbe Farma HOLD 1,355 1,355 63,516 2,040 2,274 44 49 43 49 -1% 12% 31.1 27.9 20.3 17.7 6.1 5.5 net cash 20.6

Kimia Farma BUY 915 1,200 5,082 259 303 47 55 42 47 12% 17% 19.5 16.6 13.0 11.3 2.7 2.4 0.7 13.9

Siloam Hospital HOLD 9,025 10,500 10,434 93 134 80 116 84 127 49% 44% 112.2 78.1 20.3 15.7 6.0 5.5 16.1 5.5

Mitra Keluarga BUY 2,195 2,995 31,939 589 676 40 46 40 45 14% 15% 54.2 47.3 48.4 41.1 9.6 8.6 net cash 22.9

Heavy Equipment 64,099 6,331 6,015 1,385 1,316 14% -5% 10.1 10.7 4.2 3.9 1.5 1.4 15.9

Hexindo Adiperkasa HOLD 1,150 3,650 966 220 260 262 309 238 273 13% 18% 4.4 3.7 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.3 net cash 8.0

United Tractors HOLD 16,925 18,500 63,133 6,111 5,756 1,638 1,543 1,638 1,543 14% -6% 10.3 11.0 4.3 4.0 1.6 1.5 net cash 16.5

Mining 59,689 6,032 4,691 76 59 -25% -22% 9.9 12.7 3.4 3.8 0.5 0.5 6.0

Adaro Energy BUY 498 750 15,929 2,249 1,577 70 49 70 49 9% -30% 7.1 10.1 3.1 3.1 0.4 0.4 32.0 6.4

Timah HOLD 510 570 3,798 101 180 14 24 14 24 -84% 78% 37.6 21.1 7.2 5.8 0.7 0.7 34.7 1.8

Vale Indonesia BUY 1,445 3,700 14,358 887 1,090 89 110 89 110 -56% 23% 16.2 13.2 4.3 4.0 0.6 0.6 net cash 4.1

Aneka Tambang BUY 311 472 7,474 (706) (293) (74) (31) (74) (31) -5% -59% (4.2) (10.1) 12.7 11.6 0.4 0.5 13.3 -4.9

Bukit Asam BUY 4,470 7,800 10,299 1,970 1,445 906 665 906 665 -2% -27% 4.9 6.7 3.3 4.6 1.0 1.0 net cash 21.4

Indo Tambangraya Megah HOLD 5,375 7,300 6,073 1,504 814 1,331 720 1,331 720 -28% -46% 4.0 7.5 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.5 net cash 14.1

Harum Energy HOLD 650 790 1,757 28 (123) 10 (45) 10 (45) 471% -540% 63.1 (14.3) 4.5- 10.0 0.5 0.5 net cash 0.8

Plantation 43,543 5,510 5,938 211 227 11% 8% 7.9 7.3 4.4 3.9 1.1 1.0 14.9

Astra Agro Lestari BUY 16,800 27,100 26,456 2,770 2,832 1,759 1,798 1,759 1,798 4% 2% 9.5 9.3 5.7 5.3 2.2 2.1 net cash 24.5

Sampoerna Agro BUY 1,800 2,600 3,402 464 550 245 291 253 299 18% 19% 7.3 6.2 4.8 4.1 1.0 0.9 31.8 14.5

PP London Sumatra HOLD 1,315 2,090 8,972 1,055 1,133 155 166 155 166 8% 7% 8.5 7.9 4.1 3.4 1.1 1.0 net cash 13.9

Salim Ivomas Pratama BUY 298 850 4,713 1,221 1,423 77 90 87 98 33% 17% 3.9 3.3 2.9 2.5 0.3 0.3 37.6 8.2

Property 90,425 8,896 10,205 87 99 -10% 15% 10.2 8.9 9.1 7.9 1.8 1.6 18.8

Alam Sutera BUY 325 700 6,386 1,254 1,516 64 77 73 85 15% 21% 5.1 4.2 6.1 5.1 0.9 0.8 75.3 18.9

Bumi Serpong Damai BUY 1,650 2,100 31,757 2,369 2,617 135 150 140 156 -36% 10% 12.2 11.0 10.7 9.4 2.1 1.8 net cash 16.6

Metropolitan Land BUY 200 620 1,531 290 322 38 43 38 43 14% 11% 5.2 4.7 4.2 3.9 0.7 0.6 27.7 14.2

Surya Semesta Internusa HOLD 650 1,040 3,058 464 415 99 88 103 93 32% -11% 6.6 7.4 2.7 2.6 1.0 0.9 net cash 16.9

Lippo Karawaci BUY 1,040 1,200 24,001 1,565 1,763 72 82 58 64 -38% 13% 14.4 12.8 11.0 9.5 1.5 1.4 27.3 10.1

PP Properti BUY 182 242 2,556 1,626 1,963 21 26 22 28 172% 27% 8.9 7.0 6.1 5.8 1.2 1.0 8.8 100.6

Summarecon BUY 1,465 2,045 21,135 1,327 1,609 92 111 92 111 -5% 21% 15.9 13.1 11.8 9.7 4.3 3.4 57.1 29.6

Telco & Infrastructure 464,316 19,313 22,528 141 165 28% 17% 24.0 20.6 6.9 6.3 3.8 3.5 17.0

XL Axiata BUY 3,600 4,710 30,749 356 680 42 80 42 80 -140% 91% 86.2 45.2 5.9 5.3 2.1 2.1 120.7 2.5

Indosat BUY 5,225 4,200 28,392 312 588 57 108 38 89 -152% 89% 91.0 48.3 4.4 4.0 1.8 1.7 132.4 2.0

Telkom HOLD 3,205 3,050 323,064 15,554 16,458 158 168 158 168 6% 6% 20.2 19.1 6.5 6.0 4.4 4.1 net cash 22.1

Sarana Menara Nusantara BUY 4,495 4,600 45,862 1,585 2,040 155 200 158 202 89% 29% 28.9 22.5 13.8 11.6 7.4 5.9 108.8 29.2

Tower Bersama HOLD 5,650 8,600 27,100 1,528 2,387 300 429 300 429 9% 43% 18.8 13.2 11.7 9.3 2.3 1.9 129.0 19.3

MNC Sky Vision HOLD 1,295 1,230 9,148 (22) 375 (3) 53 (2) 1 -86% -1776% (409.3) 24.4 9.3 8.1 5.7 4.6 162.0 -1.4

Tranportation 14,012 1,253 1,554 501 621 62% 24% 11.2 9.0 6.5 5.2 3.2 2.5 32.4

Blue Bird BUY 5,600 12,200 14,012 1,253 1,554 501 621 488 608 62% 24% 11.2 9.0 6.5 5.2 3.2 2.5 43.9 32.4

Utility 60,361 11,088 10,313 457 425 3% -7% 5.4 5.9 3.7 4.0 1.5 1.3 28.7

PGN BUY 2,490 6,650 60,361 11,088 10,313 457 425 5,775 5,313 3% -7% 5.4 5.9 3.7 4.0 1.5 1.3 net cash 28.7

Retail 23,916 961 1,135 37 44 -2% 18% 24.9 21.1 10.6 9.3 2.6 2.4 11.0

Mitra Adi Perkasa BUY 3,830 4,650 6,358 161 275 97 166 107 175 117% 71% 39.5 23.1 7.5 6.4 2.0 1.9 72.4 5.6

Ramayana SELL 565 660 4,009 243 255 34 36 34 36 -31% 5% 16.5 15.7 7.7 7.1 1.2 1.1 net cash 7.2

Ace Hardware HOLD 790 745 13,549 557 604 32 35 31 34 0% 9% 24.3 22.4 17.0 15.3 5.2 4.6 net cash 22.4

Net Gearing ROE EPS Growth PER (x) EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x)Core EPS (Rp)Equity

Valuation Rating Price (Rp)

Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp)

Equity Research



LEADERS Price as on

Code 25-Jan-2016 22-Jan-2016 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 5,375 5,075 5.9 1.9 (4.9) (6.1) HOLD

Mitra Adi Perkasa MAPI 3,830 3,665 4.5 4.9 3.2 0.9 BUY

Astra International ASII 6,125 5,900 3.8 3.8 2.1 2.1 HOLD

Blue Bird BIRD 5,600 5,400 3.7 (10.4) (21.7) (21.1) BUY

United Tractors UNTR 16,925 16,325 3.7 7.1 10.6 (0.1) HOLD

Indocement INTP 19,550 19,025 2.8 1.0 (12.9) (12.4) HOLD

Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP 298 290 2.8 1.0 (10.0) (10.2) BUY

Hexindo Adiperkasa HEXA 1,150 1,120 2.7 0.9 (6.5) (6.9) HOLD

Vale Indonesia INCO 1,445 1,410 2.5 2.5 (2.4) (11.6) BUY

Timah TINS 510 500 2.0 2.2 6.3 1.0 HOLD

Sources: Bloomberg

LAGGARDS Price as on

Code 25-Jan-2016 22-Jan-2016 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Adaro Energy ADRO 498 515 (3.3) 10.7 (0.4) (3.3) BUY

Indofood CBP ICBP 14,300 14,650 (2.4) 1.6 9.6 6.1 BUY

Selamat Sempurna SMSM 4,345 4,450 (2.4) (6.3) (7.7) (8.7) BUY

Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional BTPN 2,100 2,150 (2.3) (3.7) (15.7) (12.5) BUY

Indofood INDF 5,700 5,800 (1.7) 0.4 15.0 10.1 BUY

XL Axiata EXCL 3,600 3,645 (1.2) - (4.4) (1.4) BUY

Gajah Tunggal GJTL 492 498 (1.2) (1.0) (4.5) (7.2) BUY

Wika Beton WTON 1,020 1,030 (1.0) 7.9 26.7 23.6 HOLD

Siloam Hospital SILO 9,025 9,100 (0.8) (1.9) (8.6) (7.9) HOLD

Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 3,910 3,940 (0.8) 0.9 5.2 0.9 BUY

Sources: Bloomberg

COVERAGE PERFORMANCE

Equity Research



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