latin america market outlook · (rpk) 5.0% cargo traffic (rtk) 2012 to 2032 number of airline...

Copyright © 2013 Boeing. All rights reserved.

The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance.

Actual results may vary depending on certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than that intended by Boeing.

Boeing is a trademark of The Boeing Company.

Donna Hrinak President, Boeing Brazil Boeing Commercial Airplanes

December 11, 2013

Latin America Market Outlook


20-year forecast: strong long-term growth

3.2% World

economy (GDP)

5.0% Airline traffic

(RPK)

5.0% Cargo traffic (RTK)

2012 to 2032

Number of airline

passengers 4.1%


Emerging markets are driving the economic growth

1.8

4.4

4.7

Source:

IHS Global Insight

Annual GDP growth 2012 – 2032

1.6

2.5

2.6

3.2

3.4

3.8

4.0

4.5

Northeast Asia

Southeast Asia

Asia Pacific

Europe

North America

Oceania

World

CIS

Latin America

Middle East

Africa

South Asia

China 6.4

6.6


The European and North American air cargo markets are Latin America’s largest

44

countries

33

countries 2

countries

Latin America-Europe

(Total size 2012: 6.0 billion RTK)

Latin America-North America

(Total size 2012: 5.4 billion RTK)

Largest markets by tonnage (2012)

1 Brazil-Germany 1 Colombia-United States

2 Brazil-Netherlands 2 Chile-United States

3 Mexico-France 3 Brazil-United States Source: US DOC, Eurostat


World air cargo traffic is forecasted to grow 5.0% per year over the next two decades

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Intra Europe

Europe-S Asia

Europe-Africa

North America-Latin…

Europe-Latin America

Europe-Middle East

Domestic China

North America

North America-Europe

Intra Asia

Europe-Asia

North America-Asia

RTKs, billions

2012 RTKs Annual growth

percentage

5.7%

5.6%

6.8%

3.2%

2.1%

7.4%

5.5%

5.0%

5.3%

4.6%

5.5%

2.1%

2013-2032 RTKs


Sao Paulo (GRU) and Manaus are the largest domestic air cargo airports

(1) GRU Sao Paulo 136,662

(2) MAO Manaus 96,502

(3) BSB Brasilia 48,094

(4) CGH Sao Paulo 44,583

(5) FOR Fortaleza 37,829

(6) GIG Rio de Janeiro 24,191

(7) REC Recife 21,969

(8) BEL Belem 21,673

(9) SSA Salvador 19,022

(10) POA Porto Alegre 13,359

Note: Includes, Domestic Freight Only Loaded

and Unloaded (tonnes)

Source: Airports Council Int. 2012

l

6 1

2

3

9

7

4

5

10

8

Tonnes

Brazil’s Top 10 Domestic Airports in 2012

(Cargo Movement)


0

1

2

3

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Tonnes, millions

History Forecast

5.8% Average annual growth 2012 - 2032

5.3% growth per year

Domestic Brazil air cargo will grow 5.8% per year over the next two decades


The freighter fleet is grouped into three size categories

Standard-body (< 45 tonnes)

• BAe 146

• DC-9*

• 737*

• 727*

• Tu-204

• 707

• DC-8*

• 757-200

• A320*

• MD-80*

Large (> 80 tonnes)

• 767*

• A300*

• A310*

• DC-10*

• 787

• A330*

• IL-76TD

• MD-11

• 747*

• 777

• A350

• A380

• IL-96T

• AN-124

Medium widebody (40 to 80 tonnes)

*Represents a model series

Note: Production and conversion (SF) models assumed for each type unless otherwise specified


940

210 380

640

130

2013 to 2032 Freighters

Delivery units

2012 Freighters

1,730

2032 Freighters 2,810

Share of fleet

Large >80 tonnes

Medium 40 to 80 tonnes

Standard <45 tonnes

2,300

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Converted

The global freighter fleet will increase by more than half- with percentage of new to converted growing with size


The Latin American freighter fleet will almost double in the next 20 years

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2012 2032

Nu

mb

er

of

Air

pla

ne

s Large

Medium Widebody

Standard body


Summary

• Challenging near-term environment

• Economic and trade forecasts point to improvement, at trend in 2014 and beyond

• Long-term air cargo drivers remain strong: imperative for reliability and speed,

continuing product innovation, global interdependence

• Annual world GDP and trade growth will continue to drive 20-year world air cargo

growth rate of 5% annually

• Latin America and Brazilian domestic air cargo will experience above average

growth for the next 20 years

latin america market outlook · (rpk) 5.0% cargo traffic (rtk) 2012 to 2032 number of airline...

Documents