Launch of the StudyLaunch of the Study

"Aid, Conflict and Peace Building "Aid, Conflict and Peace Building in in

Sri Lanka 2000 - 2005"Sri Lanka 2000 - 2005"Strategic Conflict AssessmentStrategic Conflict Assessment

Comments byComments by

Ajith Nivard CabraalAjith Nivard Cabraal Secretary, Ministry of Plan Implementation Secretary, Ministry of Plan Implementation

and and Adviser to H. E. the President on Economic Adviser to H. E. the President on Economic

AffairsAffairs

1616thth May 2006 May 2006

St. Gregory Hotel, Washington DCSt. Gregory Hotel, Washington DC

Asia Foundation Talking Asia Foundation Talking Points: (AF-TP)Points: (AF-TP)

Over-internationalization?Over-internationalization?

The Strategic Conflict Assessment (SCA) The Strategic Conflict Assessment (SCA) has observed that Sri Lanka's current has observed that Sri Lanka's current

peace peace process has had a large international process has had a large international involvement. Some state that there has involvement. Some state that there has

been been an over internationalization of the process. an over internationalization of the process. What should be the right level and kind of What should be the right level and kind of international involvement in the peace international involvement in the peace process?process?

Generally…Generally… "International" involvement in any "national" "International" involvement in any "national"

issue is a highly delicate affair and can be easily issue is a highly delicate affair and can be easily misunderstood; when issues are drilled down, it is misunderstood; when issues are drilled down, it is often not the same as seen on the surface. often not the same as seen on the surface.

The challenge is to strike the right balance The challenge is to strike the right balance between two extremes: "disinterested observer" between two extremes: "disinterested observer" to "meddlesome busy body". to "meddlesome busy body".

When different sections of the international When different sections of the international community pursue different approaches, community pursue different approaches, confusion results. confusion results.

Offending parties naturally lean towards the Offending parties naturally lean towards the international agency practising "appeasement".international agency practising "appeasement".

Specifically…Specifically… Who should constitute the "international Who should constitute the "international

community" [IC] in relation to the Sri community" [IC] in relation to the Sri Lankan conflict?Lankan conflict?

What are the basic principles on which the What are the basic principles on which the IC is engaging itself in the process?IC is engaging itself in the process?

The practice followed at certain times by The practice followed at certain times by the IC to “balance” their comments can be the IC to “balance” their comments can be quite irritating to the victim.quite irritating to the victim.

Does the IC Does the IC reallyreally understand the understand the completely different frameworks within completely different frameworks within which the Government and the LTTE which the Government and the LTTE operate? operate?

AF-TPAF-TP

Should we go the same way?Should we go the same way?

Is it desirable to pursue the Is it desirable to pursue the current strategy followed by current strategy followed by the the International Community?International Community?

The “international involvement” in Sri The “international involvement” in Sri Lanka up to now has had successes as Lanka up to now has had successes as well as failures. well as failures.

The formula: The formula: "Aid for peace at any cost""Aid for peace at any cost" has been viewed by Sri Lankans with has been viewed by Sri Lankans with acute suspicion.acute suspicion.

The formula: The formula: "Aid for economic reforms""Aid for economic reforms" where the root causes for poverty are where the root causes for poverty are forgotten, neglected or misunderstood, forgotten, neglected or misunderstood, has also led to failure. e.g., clear has also led to failure. e.g., clear rejection of “Regaining Sri Lanka” US$ rejection of “Regaining Sri Lanka” US$ 4.5 billion aid for peace and reforms 4.5 billion aid for peace and reforms agenda.agenda.

Trade and investment instead of aid Trade and investment instead of aid is bound to be a lot more popular is bound to be a lot more popular and sustainable.and sustainable.

The international "humanitarian" aid The international "humanitarian" aid agencies' record in Tsunami agencies' record in Tsunami development has been far from development has been far from satisfactory. e.g., Even after 18 satisfactory. e.g., Even after 18 months, the houses built has been months, the houses built has been less than 3% of the pledged number less than 3% of the pledged number in relation to the three main in relation to the three main "international" humanitarian aid "international" humanitarian aid agencies. agencies.

There is a clear need to understand There is a clear need to understand

the reasons for the successes and the reasons for the successes and failures and modify the approach failures and modify the approach accordingly.accordingly.

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Role for India and the Asian Role for India and the Asian Region?Region?

The SCA argues there is a need The SCA argues there is a need to better appreciate Sri Lanka's to better appreciate Sri Lanka's regional context in relation to regional context in relation to the peace process. To what the peace process. To what extent can and should regional extent can and should regional actors such as India take a actors such as India take a greater role in the peace greater role in the peace process? What role are regional process? What role are regional actors willing to play?actors willing to play?

India is Sri Lanka's natural neighbor. India is Sri Lanka's natural neighbor. The influence and impact of India on The influence and impact of India on Sri Lanka cannot be under-estimated Sri Lanka cannot be under-estimated or devalued. or devalued.

India's recent economic and political India's recent economic and political resurgence and its fast emerging resurgence and its fast emerging world-wide political role has a world-wide political role has a tremendous influence in the region. Sri tremendous influence in the region. Sri Lanka will naturally feel such impact. Lanka will naturally feel such impact.

Sri Lanka is confident that India views Sri Lanka is confident that India views Sri Lanka's political and economic Sri Lanka's political and economic stability as being of prime importance stability as being of prime importance for the stability of the region. for the stability of the region.

Perhaps India has been slightly Perhaps India has been slightly reluctant to play a more dynamic reluctant to play a more dynamic role in Sri Lanka, due to certain role in Sri Lanka, due to certain political and military setbacks in the political and military setbacks in the past. past.

Today, with changed circumstances Today, with changed circumstances and a new regional political and a new regional political dynamism, India should be dynamism, India should be encouraged to play a more pro-encouraged to play a more pro-active role. active role.

The rapidly growing regional The rapidly growing regional understanding in South Asia understanding in South Asia should promote other regional should promote other regional actors to also pro-actively support actors to also pro-actively support Sri Lanka's peace process. Sri Lanka's peace process.

A South Asian Regional role would A South Asian Regional role would undoubtedly assist Sri Lanka to undoubtedly assist Sri Lanka to develop economically, adopt an develop economically, adopt an acceptable governance model, acceptable governance model, achieve a political settlement and achieve a political settlement and prevail upon the LTTE to give up prevail upon the LTTE to give up terrorism. terrorism.

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Match-fixing?Match-fixing?

There is a perception that the There is a perception that the international community by international community by taking positions on the taking positions on the constitutional and political constitutional and political formulas of a settlement, have formulas of a settlement, have involved themselves in national involved themselves in national policy debates that are policy debates that are partisan in nature. How broadly partisan in nature. How broadly or how narrowly should foreign or how narrowly should foreign governments and donor governments and donor agencies advocate particular agencies advocate particular formulas?formulas?

The observation is basically true and The observation is basically true and the credibility of the international the credibility of the international community has suffered considerably community has suffered considerably as a consequence. as a consequence.

““Outcome-fixing"Outcome-fixing" is as unacceptable is as unacceptable as "match-fixing" and therefore those as "match-fixing" and therefore those “pushing” it should desist from doing “pushing” it should desist from doing so. so.

Constitutional and political formulas Constitutional and political formulas are best left to the body politic of the are best left to the body politic of the nation. nation.

The IC should limit itself to providing The IC should limit itself to providing understanding about various concepts understanding about various concepts and methodologies and not promote and methodologies and not promote specific specific "labels" and/or "brands". "labels" and/or "brands".

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Fate/Future of the CFA?Fate/Future of the CFA?

There has been an escalation of There has been an escalation of violence in the North-East since violence in the North-East since December 2005. Given that December 2005. Given that hundreds of people have been hundreds of people have been killed in armed combat, in what killed in armed combat, in what sense is the Cease Fire sense is the Cease Fire Agreement of February 2002 Agreement of February 2002 still operative? What purpose still operative? What purpose does the CFA now serve?does the CFA now serve?

The CFA with all its imperfections, is better The CFA with all its imperfections, is better than not having a CFA. It acts as a bench-than not having a CFA. It acts as a bench-mark for good behaviour and provides for a mark for good behaviour and provides for a “referee”. “referee”.

The deadly game of terrorism unleashed by The deadly game of terrorism unleashed by the LTTE would probably have been a lot the LTTE would probably have been a lot more savage, if there was no referee to (at more savage, if there was no referee to (at least) blow the whistle when there were/are least) blow the whistle when there were/are violations. violations.

But, a referee who cannot issue a But, a referee who cannot issue a "yellow "yellow card"card" or or "red card“ "red card“ to offending players for to offending players for continuous violations of the rules cannot continuous violations of the rules cannot effectively control the game. effectively control the game. [According to [According to SLMM, 96% of all violations of CFA SLMM, 96% of all violations of CFA numbering over 4,000 are by LTTE]. numbering over 4,000 are by LTTE].

Some disincentive for bad behaviour is Some disincentive for bad behaviour is vital. vital.

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The Karuna FactorThe Karuna Factor

The Karuna issue is held out as The Karuna issue is held out as being an immediate stumbling being an immediate stumbling block to the resumption of talks. block to the resumption of talks. Will the LTTE discuss political Will the LTTE discuss political issues while the Karuna issue is issues while the Karuna issue is unresolved and if they are, how unresolved and if they are, how

would the Government respond?would the Government respond?

Karuna alias V. Muralidaran was LTTE's Karuna alias V. Muralidaran was LTTE's Special Commander for Batticoloa and Special Commander for Batticoloa and Amparai. Karuna attended five rounds of Amparai. Karuna attended five rounds of Peace Talks from 2002 to 2003. In March Peace Talks from 2002 to 2003. In March 2004, he dissented with LTTE Leader V. 2004, he dissented with LTTE Leader V. Prabhakaran and broke away, and is now Prabhakaran and broke away, and is now conveniently termed by the LTTE as a conveniently termed by the LTTE as a "paramilitary" of the Government. "paramilitary" of the Government.

Karuna is a Karuna is a LTTE dissidentLTTE dissident and not a and not a "paramilitary" of the Government. In "paramilitary" of the Government. In January 2006, SLMM confirmed that there is January 2006, SLMM confirmed that there is no evidence to state that Karuna is backed no evidence to state that Karuna is backed by the Government. by the Government.

What happened to previous dissidents What happened to previous dissidents and/or perceived dissidents?and/or perceived dissidents?

Karuna is not the first LTTE dissident. Karuna is not the first LTTE dissident. Neither will he be the last. According Neither will he be the last. According to reports, there are several cracks to reports, there are several cracks surfacing in LTTE’s monolithic surfacing in LTTE’s monolithic structure. structure.

Should the disarming and/or Should the disarming and/or eliminating of every LTTE dissident eliminating of every LTTE dissident (past, present and future) be the (past, present and future) be the responsibility of the Government?responsibility of the Government?

If some members of the present If some members of the present political and/or military leadership political and/or military leadership break away from the LTTE next week, break away from the LTTE next week, would disarming and perhaps even would disarming and perhaps even eliminating them be another new eliminating them be another new responsibility for the Government? responsibility for the Government?

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How about the process to How about the process to discuss political issues?discuss political issues?

What could be a possible What could be a possible process that would allow the process that would allow the Government and the LTTE to Government and the LTTE to overcome the problems and get overcome the problems and get back to the underlying political back to the underlying political issues related to power-sharing issues related to power-sharing in the North and the East?in the North and the East?

The Government is ready, able and The Government is ready, able and willing to discuss all issues relating to willing to discuss all issues relating to a devolved system of governance in a devolved system of governance in the North and the East.the North and the East.

At the same time, as seen from the At the same time, as seen from the past, a "cut-and-dried" model where past, a "cut-and-dried" model where the Government offers "solutions" and the Government offers "solutions" and the LTTE is free to reject such the LTTE is free to reject such proposals outright and cry “not proposals outright and cry “not enough” will not be a suitable platform enough” will not be a suitable platform to promote a satisfactory solution. to promote a satisfactory solution.

The talks should also be held in an The talks should also be held in an atmosphere of non-violence. atmosphere of non-violence. Hence, Hence, a]a]Respect for the Ceasefire Respect for the Ceasefire is paramount: is paramount: b]b]Recruitment of Recruitment of child soldiers should cease: child soldiers should cease: c]c]LTTE extortion of funds based on LTTE extortion of funds based on goods, services and infrastructure goods, services and infrastructure services, most of which is paid services, most of which is paid indirectly by the Government, indirectly by the Government, Donors and Lenders, should stop. Donors and Lenders, should stop.

Issues relating to Restoration of Issues relating to Restoration of Democracy and Respect for Human Democracy and Respect for Human Rights should be expeditiously Rights should be expeditiously addressed. addressed.

Discussions have to be through a Discussions have to be through a "dynamic process" where LTTE is "dynamic process" where LTTE is involved as a key stakeholder involved as a key stakeholder together with other stakeholders to together with other stakeholders to the issue. Any sustainable solution the issue. Any sustainable solution has to be worked out has to be worked out viavia concurrent concurrent discussion amongst the several discussion amongst the several stakeholders.stakeholders.

President Mahinda Rajapaksa and the President Mahinda Rajapaksa and the Government has to continuously Government has to continuously retain and maintain its credibility and retain and maintain its credibility and leadership role so that a "final" leadership role so that a "final" solution could be worked out and solution could be worked out and thereafter submitted to the people thereafter submitted to the people for their acceptance. for their acceptance.

An ambitious development program as An ambitious development program as per the per the Mahinda ChintanaMahinda Chintana is being is being vigorously implemented. Such program vigorously implemented. Such program will reduce poverty and usher sustainable will reduce poverty and usher sustainable development. development.

It would, of course, be greatly facilitated It would, of course, be greatly facilitated by peaceful conditions and political by peaceful conditions and political stability.stability.

Accordingly, the commitment to the effort Accordingly, the commitment to the effort to end the present conflict and build a to end the present conflict and build a sustainable peace is of the highest priority sustainable peace is of the highest priority to the President and the Government. to the President and the Government.

REMEMBER ALSO….

Sri Lanka has a lot happening other than just aid and conflict …