leadership 2030: megatrends and their …...slide 6 megatrend time observable over decades,...
TRANSCRIPT
Slide 1
Leadership 2030: Megatrends and Their Implications for Project
Management
September 23, 2014
John BricklemyerProfessor of the Practice
Department of Engineering and Project Management School of Engineering
The University of KansasEmail: [email protected]
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Slide 2
What is a megatrend?
Overview of the six megatrends
Discussion of each megatrend and it’s implications
Growth of Project Management as a Profession
Summary of Implications
Actionable Take-Aways
Agenda
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Megatrends
“History can only be recounted in hindsight.
That means futurologists have their work cut out for them:
They can merely extrapolate from trends that are already visible.”
Source: van Santen, Rutger, Djan Khoe, and Bram Vermeer, 2030 : Technology That Will Change the World, New York: Oxford University Press, 2010, 9 – 12.
“Small haphazard events can change the
course of history.”
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Wildcards
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Source: ATKearney, Global mega trends, http://www.challengefuture.org/static/upload/uploads/Global_mega_trends.pdf, December, 2012, 14. Accessed April 16, 2014.
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Four Types of Futures
Source: Voros, Joseph, Ph.D., A Primer on Futures Studies, Foresight and the Use of Scenarios, http://thinkingfutures.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/A_Primer_on_Futures_Studies.pdf, 2001, 2. Accessed September 4, 2014.
Those that might
happen – no matter how far fetched
Those that could
happen according to our current knowledge
Those which are
considered “likely to happen”,
and stem in part from
the continuance of current
trends
What we want to happen
Possible Plausible PreferredProbable
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Megatrend
TimeObservable over decades, megatrends can be projected with a high degree of probability at least 15 years into the
future
ReachMegatrends affect all regions and
stakeholders, including governments, individuals, and
businesses
ImpactMegatrends fundamentally
transform policies, society, and the economy
What Defines a Megatrend?
Source: Vielmetter, Georg, and Yvonne Sell, Leadership 2030: The Six Megatrends You Need to Understand to Lead Your Company into the Future, New York: AMACOM/American Management
Association, 2014, 6.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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A long-term, transformational process with global reach, broad scope, and a
fundamental and dramatic impact
Slide 7
Megatrend Life Cycle
Source: Alcatel-Lucent, Megatrends – A Wave of Change Impacting the Future, http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/public_files/megatrends/Megatrends_EN_MarketAnalysis.pdf, 2012, 7. Accessed August 19, 2014.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Legal frameworks strive to catch up
Industry standards are established & influenced
Becomes ubiquitous, the “new normal”
Slide 8
Leadership 2030: The Six Megatrends
Source: Vielmetter, Georg, and Yvonne Sell, Leadership 2030: The Six Megatrends You Need to Understand to Lead Your Company into the Future, New York: AMACOM/American Management Association, 2014, 10 -11.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Globalization 2.0 The Digital Era
The Environmental Crisis
Individualism and Value Pluralism
Demographic Change
Technological Convergence
Changing Working Patterns
Corporate Environment
Organization
Personal and Team Level
Slide 9
Megatrend #1: Globalization 2.0
1. Globalization 2.0 is fundamentally different from Globalization 1.0
2. Traditional trade patterns will be disrupted
3. Beware of “glocalization”
4. The burden of complexity will intensify
5. Contextual awareness will be critical
Source: Vielmetter, Georg, and Yvonne Sell, Leadership 2030: The Six Megatrends You Need to Understand to Lead Your Company into the Future, New York: AMACOM/American Management Association, 2014, 13 -14.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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World Economic Center of
Gravity Shift
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Urban world: Cities and the rise of the consuming class, McKinsey & Company, http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/urban_world_cities_and_the_rise_of_the_consuming_class, June 2012, 17. Accessed August 19, 2014.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Most Defining Characteristics of Complexity in Projects
Source: Project Management Institute, Inc., PMI’s Pulse of the Profession In-Depth Report: Navigating Complexity, 2013, 4.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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“The exponential increase in ambiguity
surrounding stakeholder
expectations, especially regarding the certainty of program outcomes
and schedules”
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Characterizing Complexity
Source: Project Management Institute, Inc., PMI’s Pulse of the Profession In-Depth Report: Navigating Complexity, 2013, 3.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Is it complex?
Or is it merely complicated?
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Global BrandLocal
InnovationGlocalization
Glocalization – What is it?
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Sociologist Roland Robertson suggests replacing the concept of globalization with the concept of "glocalization“
Slide 14
Correlation in Industrial Profitability
Source: Khanna, Tarun, “Contextual Intelligence,” Harvard Business Review, Vol. 92, No. 9 (September 2014): 63.
Argentina
Austria
Belgium
Brazil
Canada
Chile Positive correlation
China Significant at the 10% level
Colombia
Denmark Insignificant correlation
Finland
France Negative correlation
Germany Significant at the 10% level
Greece
Hong Kong
Hungary
India
Indonesia
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Malaysia
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Pakistan
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
S. Korea
Singapore
South Africa
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Taiwan
Thailand
Turkey
U. Kingdom
United States
Venezuela
Arg
entina
Aust
ria
Belg
ium
Bra
zil
Canada
Chile
Chin
aColo
mbia
Denm
ark
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Germ
any
Gre
ece
Hong K
ong
Hungary
India
Indonesia
Irela
nd
Isra
elItaly
Japan
Mala
ysia
Mexi
coNeth
erlands
New Z
eala
nd
Norw
ay
Pakista
nPeru
Philippin
es
Pola
nd
Port
ugal
S. Kore
aSin
gapore
South
Africa
Spain
Sw
eden
Sw
itze
rland
Taiw
an
Thaila
nd
Turk
ey
U. Kin
gdom
United S
tate
sVenezu
ela
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Megatrend #1: Globalization 2.0Implications for Project Management
1. Shift from executing projects to enterprise-wide project management – further gains in the recognition of, and demand for, project management as a profession with an increasing emphasis on providing business value
2. Project complexity will continue to intensify – see technological convergence
3. Contextual intelligence will become a key factor in the success of projects
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Megatrend #2: The Environmental Crisis
1. Climate change is real and almost irreversible
2. Critical resources are being depleted
3. The implications are potentially catastrophic
4. Carbon footprint moves from corporate social responsibility to the bottom line
5. Transformational thinking and operations will be necessary
Source: Vielmetter, Georg, and Yvonne Sell, Leadership 2030: The Six Megatrends You Need to Understand to Lead Your Company into the Future, New York: AMACOM/American Management Association, 2014, 33 -34.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Sustainability
“Sustainability has gone from a nice to do to a must do. It is about building a successful business for the long term. Sustainability will be a decisive factor in terms of which businesses will be here in 20 or 30 years time. It is the future of business.”
Steve HowardChief Sustainability OfficerIKEA Group
Source: Kanani, Rahim, “Why IKEA Thinks This Mega-Trend Will Define The Next 30 Years Of Business,” Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/rahimkanani/2014/02/07/why-ikea-thinks-this-mega-trend-will-define-the-next-30-years-of-business/, February 7, 2014. Accessed August 19, 2014.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Corporate Sustainability Strategy
OverallCorporateStrategy
Projects
Sustainable Development
Aspects
Sustainability Gap in Project Management
Source: Keeys, Lynn A., Martina Huemann, and Rodney Turner. “Integrating Project Strategy for Sustainable Development: A Conceptual Framework,” in Sustainability Integration for Effective Project Management, edited by Gilbert Silvius and Jennifer Tharp, 22. Hershey, PA: Business Science Reference, 2013.
Practice &Research
Gap
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Projects are linked with strategy through their value creation
process
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Expected Effect of Sustainability Principles on Project Management Processes
Source: Silvius, Gilbert. “Sustainability in Project Management Processes,” in Sustainability Integration for Effective Project Management, edited by Gilbert Silvius and Jennifer Tharp, 66. Hershey, PA: Business Science Reference, 2013.
Sustainability Principles
Harmonizing Social,
Environmental, and Economical
Interests
Both Short Term and Long
Term
Local and Global
Consuming Income, Not
Capital
Transparency and
Accountability
Personal Values and
Ethics
Project Initiating
High Impact High Impact High Impact Low Impact High Impact High Impact
Project Planning
High Impact High Impact High Impact High Impact High Impact High Impact
Project Executing
High Impact High Impact High Impact High Impact High Impact High Impact
Project Monitoring and Controlling
Moderate Impact
Low Impact Low Impact Low Impact High Impact High Impact
Project Closure Low Impact Low Impact Low Impact Low Impact High Impact High Impact
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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The Dewealth
to RewealthTransition
Source: Cunningham, Storm. “Global Trends in Project Management,” in Project Management Circa 2025, edited by David I. Cleland, PhD and Bopaya Bidanda, PhD, 383 –399. Newton Square, Pennsylvania: Project Management Institute, Inc., 2009, 385.
RESOURCESMore Less
More
Less
EC
ON
OM
Y
Constraint Crisis
Corrosion Crisis
Contamination Crisis
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Megatrend #2: The Environmental CrisisImplications for Project Management
1. Corporate sustainability strategy, overall corporate strategy, sustainable development aspects, and projects will increasingly overlap
2. Shift from focusing on narrowly defined project performance to broader measures including sustainability
3. Shift from development to redevelopment (dewealth vs. rewealth)
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Megatrend #3: Individualism and Value Pluralism
1. Mounting affluence will drive growing individualism in emerging societies
2. People’s values will increasingly pluralize
3. Niche opportunities will emerge in local markets
4. Organizations’ internal and external environments will fracture
5. Greater flexibility and sensitivity will be essential
Source: Vielmetter, Georg, and Yvonne Sell, Leadership 2030: The Six Megatrends You Need to Understand to Lead Your Company into the Future, New York: AMACOM/American Management Association, 2014, 57 -58.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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The Evidence of Change
Source: KPMG International Cooperative, Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments, http://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/future-state-government/Pages/future-state-2030.aspx, 2014,
18. Accessed August 19, 2014.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Middle Class Growth to
2030
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Source: KPMG International Cooperative, Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments, http://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/future-state-government/Pages/future-state-2030.aspx, 2014,
21. Accessed August 19, 2014.
A virtual middle class is rising:
• Though still very poor, they are increasingly demanding rights, services, and good
governance
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Global Middle Class Consumption Growth
Source: OECD Development Centre, Working Paper No. 285: The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries, http://www.oecd.org/dev/44457738.pdf, 2010, 29. Accessed August 29, 2014.
.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Asian Middle Class Spending:
2000 10%2040 40%
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Technology Access & The Rise of the Individual
Source: KPMG International Cooperative, Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments, http://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/future-state-government/Pages/future-state-2030.aspx, 2014,
19. Accessed August 19, 2014.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Megatrend #3: Individualism and Value Pluralism
Implications for Project Management
1. Shift from managerial control to self-direction and accountability
2. 168 connectivity with many “loose” connections and fewer strong ones
3. “Soft factors” will have a significant impact on employee’s loyalty and motivation to perform
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Megatrend #4: The Digital Era
1. The digitization of our lifestyles is becoming the norm
2. Digital natives have increasing influence
3. Virtualization is disrupting power relationships between companies, customers, and employees
4. The workplace is fragmenting
5. Leadership will need to “go remote” and prioritize loyalty and reputation management
Source: Vielmetter, Georg, and Yvonne Sell, Leadership 2030: The Six Megatrends You Need to Understand to Lead Your Company into the Future, New York: AMACOM/American Management Association, 2014, 77 -78.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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The Individual in an Always-Connected
World
Source: Friedrich, Roman, Michael Peterson, Alex Koster, and Sebastian Blum, The Rise of Generation C: Implications for the World of 2020, Booz & Company Inc., 2012, http://www.strategyand.pwc.com/media/uploads/Rise_Of_Generation_C.pdf, 12. Accessed August 29, 2014.
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Generation Y
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Source: Singh, Sarwant. “Top 20 Global Mega Trends and Their Impact on Business, Cultures and Society,” Frost & Sullivan presentation, www.frost.com/prod/servlet/cpo/213016007, 19. Accessed April 16, 2014.
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The Future of the Web
Source: Davis, Mills. “Project 10X’s Semantic Wave 2008 Report: Industry Roadmap to Web 3.0 & Multibillion Dollar Market Opportunities,” http://www.eurolibnet.eu/files/REPOSITORY/20090507165103_SemanticWaveReport2008.pdf, October 2008, 3. Accessed August 19,
2014.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Knowledge Management Drivers
Source: Sankarasubramanian, Sivasailam, PMP. “Knowledge Management Meets Project Management,” in 2009 PMI Global Congress Proceedings – Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2009.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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1. Increasing domain complexity2. Accelerating market volatility3. Intensified speed of responsiveness4. Diminishing individual experience5. Multiple locations of knowledge6. Baby boomer retirement7. Tacit knowledge challenge8. Global nature of organizations9. Distributed workforce10. Multi-cultural workforce
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The Benefits
RealisationCycle
Source: Thiry, Michael, PhD, “The Future of Project Management in a Digitised Economy,” in 2013 PMI Global Congress Proceedings – New Orleans, Louisiana, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, 7.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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The Integrated
Organization
Source: Thiry, Michael, PhD, “The Future of Project Management in a Digitised Economy,” in 2013 PMI Global Congress Proceedings – New Orleans, Louisiana, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, 8.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Central to this decision process is recognizing
when change is needed
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Megatrend #4: The Digital EraImplications for Project Management
1. Shift from managing information to fully utilizing information technology: The integration of knowledge management
2. Growing movement from passive to active management of customer loyalty and reputation management
3. Increasing commonality of virtual project teams, even when located in the same city
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Megatrend #5: Demographic Change
1. The world’s population is expanding and aging in parallel
2. Demographic change is placing great pressure on social structures and companies
3. The war for talent will intensify
4. Workforces will diversify as companies adapt
5. Managing diversity will be a core leadership competency
Source: Vielmetter, Georg, and Yvonne Sell, Leadership 2030: The Six Megatrends You Need to Understand to Lead Your Company into the Future, New York: AMACOM/American Management Association, 2014, 97 -98.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Increasing Importance of Leadership Skills
Source: Project Management Institute, Inc., Building High-Performance Project Talent White Paper, 2013, 1..
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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The Global Labor Force,
2008 to 2039
Source: OECD Development Centre, Working Paper No. 285: The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries, http://www.oecd.org/dev/44457738.pdf, 2010, 24. Accessed August 29, 2014.
.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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95 percent of the population increase
(excluding migration) will be in developing
countries
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Global Aging
Source: KPMG International Cooperative, Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments, http://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/future-state-government/Pages/future-state-2030.aspx, 2014,
14. Accessed August 19, 2014.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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The Supply of Educated Workers
Source: ATKearney, Global mega trends, http://www.challengefuture.org/static/upload/uploads/Global_mega_trends.pdf, December, 2012, 12. Accessed April 16, 2014.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Reverse Brain Drain of CXO Positions
Source: Singh, Sarwant. “Top 20 Global Mega Trends and Their Impact on Business, Cultures and Society,” Frost & Sullivan presentation, www.frost.com/prod/servlet/cpo/213016007, 17. Accessed April 16, 2014.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Global Youth
Source: KPMG International Cooperative, Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments, http://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/future-state-government/Pages/future-state-2030.aspx, 2014,
14. Accessed August 19, 2014.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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World Population Changes
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013). World Population 2012 Wall Poster, http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/trends/WPP2012_Wallchart.pdf, 2012. ST/ESA/SER.A/332. Accessed August 29, 2014.
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©2014 John Bricklemyer
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The consequences of demographics:
• An aging world• Public pension
systems under pressure
• Healthcare spending increases
• Youth bulges
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Megatrend #5: Demographic ChangeImplications for Project Management
1. Shift from efficiency to effectiveness –getting the most out of limited resources
2. Greater focus on team management as an integrated part of project management with distinct skill sets and professional status
3. Increasing importance of leadership skills for project managers
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Megatrend #6: Technological Convergence
1. Technological progress is likely to transform many aspects of our lives
2. Convergence will drive the greatest innovations
3. R&D will take center stage
4. Convergence will necessitate new levels and forms of collaboration
5. Societies will debate the ethical boundaries of technological advancement
Source: Vielmetter, Georg, and Yvonne Sell, Leadership 2030: The Six Megatrends You Need to Understand to Lead Your Company into the Future, New York: AMACOM/American Management Association, 2014, 117 -118.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Technological Convergence
“Technological convergence; occurs
when multiple products come together to form one product with the
advantages of all of them”
Source: Olawuyi J.O. , Mgbole Friday, “Technological Convergence” Science Journal of Physics, Volume 2012, Article ID sjp-221, 5 Pages, 2012, 1. doi:10.7237/sjp/221
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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“Technological innovation is more dynamic than the competition dynamic of
the market and it is more dynamic than the
adequacy and stability of public policy and the legal
framework”
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Triple EmbeddednessFramework of
Industries
Source: Geels, Frank W., “Reconceptualising the co-evolution of firms-in-industries and their environments: Developing an inter-disciplinary Triple Embeddedness Framework,” Research Policy, Volume 43, Issue 2, 2014, 261-277.
Core firm
Peripheral firmEconomic (task)
environment
Socio-political
environment
Industry
Activists,
social
movementsCivil society,
public discourse
PolicymakersCustomers
Suppliers
(finance,
machines,
labour,
knowledge)
Industry regime
Technical knowledge,
capabilities
Mindset, belief systemMission,
identity, norms
Regulations,
laws, standards
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Source: Horace Dediu, Adoption Rates of Consumer Technologies in the US (10% to 90% penetration), November 18, 2013, accessed January 27, 2014, http://www.asymco.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Adoption-Rates-of-Consumer-Technologies.png
Technology Adoption
Rates
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Which Digital Technologies Will be the Most Disruptive Over the Next 10 Years?
Technology Percentage of CIOs
Mobile technologies 70%
Big data/analytics 55%
Social media 54%
Public cloud 51%
“The disruptiveness of each of these technologies is real, but CIOs see their greatest disruptive power coming in combination, rather than in isolation.”
Source: Gartner, Inc., “Gartner Executive Program Survey of More Than 2,000 CIOs Shows Digital Technologies Are Top Priorities in 2013,” Stamford, Connecticut, January 14, 2014, http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2649419. Accessed September 4, 2014.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Emerging Technologies Will Change Everything
Source: Hayes, Tony, “Emerging Business and Technology Trends,” Presentation to ISACA, January 14, 2014, 6, http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CEcQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.isaca.org%2Fchapters7%2FWellington%2FEvents%2FDocuments%2FEmerging%2520Business%2520and%2520Technology%2520Trends.ppt&ei=fqMNVJ2WGoKnyASHz4CwBQ&usg=AFQjCNFeAdfn_27wfHCRkgN6dsVhl
mXYEQ&bvm=bv.74649129,d.aWwStamford, Connecticut, January 14, 2014. Accessed April 16, 2014.
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Leveraging mobile, social media, cloud, and big
data/analytics organizations will put customer/users even more effectively at the center
of their approaches
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How Will Organizational Capabilities Need to Change?
Source: Hayes, Tony, “Emerging Business and Technology Trends,” Presentation to ISACA, January 14, 2014, 8, http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CEcQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.isaca.org%2Fchapters7%2FWellington%2FEvents%2FDocuments%2FEmerging%2520Business%2520and%2520Technology%2520Trends.ppt&ei=fqMNVJ2WGoKnyASHz4CwBQ&usg=AFQjCNFeAdfn_27wfHCRkgN6dsVhlmXYE
Q&bvm=bv.74649129,d.aWwStamford, Connecticut, January 14, 2014. Accessed April 16, 2014.
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Integrated Technology & Business Teams are Needed
Source: Hayes, Tony, “Emerging Business and Technology Trends,” Presentation to ISACA, January 14, 2014, 9, http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CEcQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.isaca.org%2Fchapters7%2FWellington%2FEvents%2FDocuments%2FEmerging%2520Business%2520and%2520Technology%2520Trends.ppt&ei=fqMNVJ2WGoKnyASHz4CwBQ&usg=AFQjCNFeAdfn_27wfHCRkgN6dsVhlmXYE
Q&bvm=bv.74649129,d.aWwStamford, Connecticut, January 14, 2014. Accessed April 16, 2014.
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Connectivity is Pushing
Convergence
Source: Jawad, Iain. “World’s Top Global Mega Trends To 2025 and Implications to Business, Society and Cultures,” Frost & Sullivan presentation, http://www.investinbsr.com/ipaforum/wp-content/uploads/Iain-Jawad-IPA-Forum-2014-Presentation.pdf, 2014, 11. Accessed September 10, 2014.
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Convergence of
Technology Will Lead to Convergence
of Competition
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Source: Singh, Sarwant. “Top 20 Global Mega Trends and Their Impact on Business, Cultures and Society,” Frost & Sullivan presentation, www.frost.com/prod/servlet/cpo/213016007, 17. Accessed April 16, 2014.
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Megatrend #6: Technological ConvergenceImplications for Project Management
1. Shift from linear processes to dynamic systems
2. Convergence will necessitate new levels and forms of collaboration, aimed at least partially on ensuring interoperability, modularity, and flexibility
3. Shift to more open organizational structures to improve the free flow of information and better utilize the resources available
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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PM-related Research Trends
Source: Morris, Peter W.G., “Research and the future of project management,” International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, Volume 3, Number 1, 2010, 145.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Sometimes theory leads practice,
Sometimes practice leads theory, and
Research explains practice and builds theory
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Development & Future of the PM Profession
Source: Bourne, Lynda, PhD, “The Future of the Hero Project Manager,” in Proceedings PMI Global Congress 2010 – Milan, Italy, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2010.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Projected Project Management
Growth
Source: Project Management Institute, Inc., PMI’s Industry Growth Forecast: Project Management Between 2010 + 2020, 2013, 5.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
Slide 58
Jobs in the U.S.
Slide 59
Leadership 2030 MegatrendsImplications for Project Managers
Megatrend #1: Globalization 2.0
1. Shift from executing projects to enterprise-wide project management – further gains in the recognition of, and demand for, project management as a profession with an increasing emphasis on providing business value
2. Project complexity will further intensify –see technological convergence
3. Contextual intelligence will become a key factor in the success of projects
Megatrend #2: The Environmental Crisis
1. Corporate sustainability strategy, overall corporate strategy, sustainable development aspects, and projects will increasingly overlap
2. Shift from focusing on narrowly defined project performance to broader measures including sustainability
3. Shift from development to redevelopment (dewealth vs. rewealth)
Megatrend #3: Individualism and Value Pluralism
1. Shift from managerial control to self-direction and accountability
2. 168 connectivity with many “loose” connections and fewer strong ones
3. “Soft factors” will have a significant impact on employee’s loyalty and motivation to perform
Megatrend #5: Demographic Change
1. Shift from efficiency to effectiveness –getting the most out of limited resources
2. Greater focus on team management as an integrated part of project management with distinct skill sets and professional status
3. Increasing importance of leadership skills for project managers
Megatrend #4: The Digital Era
1. Shift from managing information to fully utilizing information technology: The integration of knowledge management
2. Growing movement from passive to active management of customer loyalty and reputation management
3. Increasing commonality of virtual project teams, even when located in the same city
Megatrend #6: Technological Convergence
1. Shift from linear processes to dynamic systems
2. Convergence will necessitate new levels and forms of collaboration, aimed at least partially on ensuring interoperability, modularity, and flexibility
3. Shift to more open organizational structures to improve the free flow of information and better utilize the resources available
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
Slide 59
Slide 60
Leadership 2030 MegatrendsProject Manager Implication Actions
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
Slide 60
Glocalization of Projects
Develop contextual intelligence and cultural
awareness skills to be able to properly adapt global projects to local customs
Performance Metrics
Incorporate broader performance measures,
specifically including those regarding business value
and sustainability
Project Leadership
Develop leadership and talent management skills
to properly manage a scarce, diverse, & potentially virtual
workforce
Knowledge Integration
Develop an understanding of knowledge management and how you can integrate
it into managing your projects
Social Engagement
Incorporate social media into your daily life to
appreciate, and manage, how it can impact loyalty,
reputations, and your career on a global basis
Sustainability for the Future
Educate yourself on sustainability principles
and how you can incorporate them into your
projects
Slide 61
References
Alcatel-Lucent, Megatrends – A Wave of Change Impacting the Future, http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/public_files/megatrends/Megatrends_EN_MarketAnalysis.pdf, 2012. Accessed August 19, 2014.
Andergassen, Rainer and Nardini, Franco and Ricottilli, Massimo, Innovation Diffusion, Technological Convergence and Economic Growth (November 21, 2013). Quaderni -Working Paper DSE N° 912. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2357938
Bourne, Lynda, PhD, “The Future of the Hero Project Manager,” in Proceedings PMI Global Congress 2010 – Milan, Italy, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2010.
Cleland, David I., PhD, and Bopaya Bidanda, PhD, Project Management Circa 2025, Newton Square, Pennsylvania: Project Management Institute, Inc., 2009.
Cunningham, Storm. “Global Trends in Project Management,” in Project Management Circa 2025, edited by David I. Cleland, PhD and Bopaya Bidanda, PhD, 383 – 399. Newton Square, Pennsylvania: Project Management Institute, Inc., 2009.
Davis, Mills. “Project 10X’s Semantic Wave 2008 Report: Industry Roadmap to Web 3.0 & Multibillion Dollar Market Opportunities,” http://www.eurolibnet.eu/files/REPOSITORY/20090507165103_SemanticWaveReport2008.pdf, October 2008. Accessed August 19, 2014.
Friedrich, Roman, Michael Peterson, Alex Koster, and Sebastian Blum, The Rise of Generation C: Implications for the World of 2020, Booz & Company Inc., 2012, http://www.strategyand.pwc.com/media/uploads/Rise_Of_Generation_C.pdf. Accessed August 29, 2014.
Geels, Frank W., “Reconceptualising the co-evolution of firms-in-industries and their environments: Developing an inter-disciplinary Triple Embeddedness Framework,” Research Policy, Volume 43, Issue 2, 2014, 261-277.
Hay Group, Building the New Leader: Leadership Challenges of the Future Revealed, http://www.z-punkt.de/fileadmin/be_user/englisch/D_Newsletter/E_2012_03_Newsletter/Hay_Group_Leadership_2030_whitepaper.pdf, 2011. Accessed August 19, 2014.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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References (cont’d)
Jawad, Iain. “World’s Top Global Mega Trends To 2025 and Implications to Business, Society and Cultures,” Frost & Sullivan presentation, http://www.investinbsr.com/ipaforum/wp-content/uploads/Iain-Jawad-IPA-Forum-2014-Presentation.pdf, 2014. Accessed September 10, 2014.
Kanani, Rahim, “Why IKEA Thinks This Mega-Trend Will Define The Next 30 Years Of Business,” Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/rahimkanani/2014/02/07/why-ikea-thinks-this-mega-trend-will-define-the-next-30-years-of-business/, February 7, 2014. Accessed August 19, 2014.
Keeys, Lynn A., Martina Huemann, and Rodney Turner. “Integrating Project Strategy for Sustainable Development: A Conceptual Framework,” in Sustainability Integration for Effective Project Management, edited by Gilbert Silvius and Jennifer Tharp, 20 – 38. Hershey, PA: Business Science Reference, 2013.
Khanna, Tarun, “Contextual Intelligence,” Harvard Business Review, Vol. 92, No. 9 (September 2014): 58 – 68.
Khanna, Tarun and Jan W. Rivkin, “The Structure of Profitability Around the World,” March 29, 2001.
King, Cynthia Joyce, Project Management Skills of the Future – A Dissertation Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy, Ann Arbor, MI: ProQuest LLC, 2012.
KPMG International Cooperative, Expect the Unexpected: Building Business Value in a Changing World, http://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/building-business-value.pdf, 2012. Accessed August 28, 2014.
KPMG International Cooperative, Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments, http://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/future-state-government/Pages/future-state-2030.aspx, 2014. Accessed August 19, 2014.
Larsen, Gitte, Why megatrends matter, http://www.cifs.dk/scripts/artikel.asp?id=1469, May, 2006. Accessed August 19, 2014.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Slide 63
References (cont’d)
McKinsey Global Institute, Urban world: Cities and the rise of the consuming class, McKinsey & Company, http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/urban_world_cities_and_the_rise_of_the_consuming_class, June 2012. Accessed August 19, 2014.
Morris, Peter W.G., Reconstructing Project Management, West Sussex, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2013.
Morris, Peter W.G., “Research and the future of project management,” International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, Volume 3, Number 1, 2010, 139 -146.
National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/GlobalTrends_2030.pdf, December 2012. Accessed August 19, 2014.
OECD Development Centre, Working Paper No. 285: The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries, http://www.oecd.org/dev/44457738.pdf, 2010. Accessed August 29, 2014.
Olawuyi J.O. , Mgbole Friday, “Technological Convergence” Science Journal of Physics, Volume 2012, Article ID sjp-221, 5 Pages, 2012. doi:10.7237/sjp/221
Pells, David L., “Global Population Megatrends and their Potential Impact on the World of Project Management,” PM World Journal, Vol. II Issue III, (March 2013), http://pmworldlibrary.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/PMWJ8-mar2013-Pells-Population-Mega-Trends-SecondEdition.pdf. Accessed August 19, 2014.
Project Management Institute, Inc., PMI’s Industry Growth Forecast: Project Management Between 2010 + 2020, 2013.
Project Management Institute, Inc., PMI’s Pulse of the Profession In-Depth Report: Navigating Complexity, 2013.
Sankarasubramanian, Sivasailam, PMP. “Knowledge Management Meets Project Management,” in 2009 PMI Global Congress Proceedings – Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2009.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
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Slide 64
References (cont’d)
Silvius, Gilbert. “Sustainability in Project Management Processes,” in Sustainability Integration for Effective Project Management, edited by Gilbert Silvius and Jennifer Tharp, 58 – 75. Hershey, PA: Business Science Reference, 2013.
Singh, Sarwant. “Top 20 Global Mega Trends and Their Impact on Business, Cultures and Society,” Frost & Sullivan presentation, www.frost.com/prod/servlet/cpo/213016007. Accessed April 16, 2014.
Thiry, Michael, PhD, “The Future of Project Management in a Digitised Economy,” in 2013 PMI Global Congress Proceedings – New Orleans, Louisiana, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.
UK Commission for Employment and Skills, The Future of Work: Jobs and Skills in 2030, http://www.z-punkt.de/fileadmin/be_user/D_Publikationen/D_Auftragsstudien/the-future-of-work-evidence-report.pdf, February 2014. Accessed August 19, 2014.
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013). World Population 2012 Wall Poster, http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/trends/WPP2012_Wallchart.pdf, 2012. ST/ESA/SER.A/332. Accessed August 29, 2014.
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013). World Population Aging 2013. ST/ESA/SER.A/348.
van Santen, Rutger, Djan Khoe, and Bram Vermeer, 2030 : Technology That Will Change the World, New York: Oxford University Press, 2010.
Vielmetter, Georg, and Yvonne Sell, Leadership 2030: The Six Megatrends You Need to Understand to Lead Your Company into the Future, New York: AMACOM/American Management Association, 2014.
Voros, Joseph, Ph.D., A Primer on Futures Studies, Foresight and the Use of Scenarios, http://thinkingfutures.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/A_Primer_on_Futures_Studies.pdf, 2001. Accessed September 4, 2014.
Z-punkt, Megatrends Update, http://www.z-punkt.de/fileadmin/be_user/englisch/D_Downloads/Megatrends_Update_EN.pdf, 2012. Accessed August 19, 2014.
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
Slide 64
Slide 65
Questions
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation©2014 John Bricklemyer
Slide 65
Megatrend #1: Globalization 2.0
Shift from executing projects to enterprise-wide project management – further gains in the recognition of, and demand for, project management as a profession with an increasing emphasis on providing business value
Project complexity will further intensify – see technological convergence
Contextual intelligence will become a key factor in the success of projects
Project ManagementImplications from the Megatrends
Megatrend #2: The Environmental Crisis
Corporate sustainability strategy, overall corporate strategy, sustainable development aspects, and projects will increasingly overlap
Shift from focusing on narrowly defined project performance to broader measures including sustainability
Shift from development to redevelopment (dewealth vs. rewealth)
Megatrend #3: Individualism and Value Pluralism
Shift from managerial control to self-direction and accountability
168 connectivity with many loose connections and fewer strong ones
Soft factors will have a significant impact on employee s loyalty and motivation to perform
Megatrend #4: The Digital Era
Shift from managing information to fully utilizing information technology: The integration of knowledge management
Growing movement from passive to active management of customer loyalty and reputation management
Increasing commonality of virtual project teams, even when located in the same city
Megatrend #5: Demographic Change
Shift from efficiency to effectiveness – getting the most out of limited resources
Greater focus on team management as an integrated part of project management with distinct skill sets and professional status
Increasing importance of leadership skills for project managers
Megatrend #6: Technological Convergence
Shift from linear processes to dynamic systems
Convergence will necessitate new levels and forms of collaboration, aimed at least partially on ensuring interoperability, modularity, and flexibility
Shift to more open organizational structures to improve the free flow of information and better utilize the
resources available
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation
©2014 John Bricklemyer
John Bricklemyer
Professor of the Practice
The University of Kansas
Email: [email protected]
Actionable Take-Aways From the Project Management Implications
2014 KC PMI PDD Presentation
©2014 John Bricklemyer
John Bricklemyer
Professor of the Practice
The University of Kansas
Email: [email protected]
Glocalization of Projects
Develop contextual intelligence and cultural
awareness skills to be able to properly adapt global projects to local customs
Performance Metrics
Incorporate broader performance measures,
specifically including those regarding business value
and sustainability
Project Leadership
Develop leadership and talent management skills
to properly manage a scarce, diverse, & potentially virtual
workforce
Knowledge Integration
Develop an understanding of knowledge management and how you can integrate
it into managing your projects
Social Engagement
Incorporate social media into your daily life to
appreciate, and manage, how it can impact loyalty,
reputations, and your career on a global basis
Sustainability for the Future
Educate yourself on sustainability principles
and how you can incorporate them into your
projects