lecture 01 course overview - purdue engineeringcontext – engineering systems design decision...

Context – Engineering Systems DesignDecision Making - What and How

Structure of the Course

Lecture 01Course Overview

Jitesh H. Panchal

ME 597: Decision Making for Engineering Systems Design

Design Engineering Lab @ Purdue (DELP)School of Mechanical Engineering

Purdue University, West Lafayette, INhttp://engineering.purdue.edu/delp

August 26, 2014

c©Jitesh H. Panchal Lecture 01 1 / 32

http://engineering.purdue.edu/delp



About the Instructor

Jitesh PanchalAssistant Professor

School of Mechanical EngineeringPurdue University

At Purdue since Fall 2012

Assistant Professor at Washington State University (2008-2012)

Visiting Assistant Professor at Georgia Tech (2006-2008)Education

Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering, Georgia Tech (2005)M.S. in Mechanical Engineering, Georgia Tech (2003)B.Tech. in Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Guwahati(2000)




Lecture Outline

1 Context – Engineering Systems DesignWhy study decisions?Examples of decisions in design

2 Decision Making - What and HowProcess of making decisions (HOW?)Structure of a decision (WHAT?)

3 Structure of the Course




Why study decisions?Examples of decisions in design

What is Design?

Designing is the process of converting information about needs andrequirements for a product/system into a complete specification of thatproduct/system.

Role of decisions in design:

Design is to a large extent decision making.

Design involves deciding on the most preferred system alternative

Question

Can you think of decisions made in the design process?





Why Focus on Decision Making? (1)

A Decision is:

A present action to achieve a future outcome

An irrevocable allocation of resources, in the sense that it would takeadditional resources, perhaps prohibitive in amount, to change theallocation. [Matheson, Howard]

Decisions determine the success of a design project.





Why Should you Care about Decision Making?

Why should designers care about decisions made by customers andcompetitors?

1 Decisions made by customers in choosing products to purchaseProduct selection...

2 Designers as decision makersConcept selection...

3 Responding to decisions made by competitorsPricing...

4 Others?





Decisions are Made Throughout a Product/System Lifecycle

Pilot Production

Production

Feasibility and

Concept

Detailed Design

Maintenance

& Support

Sales &

Distribution

Production

Testing

Detail

Design

Concept

Design

Portfolio

Planning

Product Lifecycle

Design

Reviews

Gate

Reviews

Concept Design

Review

Preliminary

Design ReviewFinal Design

Review

Production

Readiness ReviewProgram

Close-out

Program

Approval

Design Phase

Approval

Pilot Phase

Approval

Slide courtesy: Chris Paredis





Example – Decisions Made by Customers





Example – Decisions Made by Designers

Conceptual design – morphological matrix





Example – Decisions Made by Designers and Manufacturers





Example – Decisions Made by Analysts





Example – Decisions Made by Analysts (contd.)





Example – Decisions Made by Participants in Power Systems





Example – Decisions Made by Participants in Air Transportation System





Example – Decisions Made by Participants in the Internet




Process of making decisions (HOW?)Structure of a decision (WHAT?)

The Process of Making a Decision

So, HOW do you make a decision?





Let us think about “how” decisions are made

1. Customer’s perspective: Deciding among a set of products. How wouldyou do it? Group activity...






2. Designer’s perspective: Deciding among a set of concepts. How wouldyou do it? Group activity...






3. Competitor’s perspective: Deciding among a set of prices. How would youdo it? Group activity...





Structure of a Decision

What are the basic elements of (any) decision?





Basic Elements of a Decision

Decision

A1

A2

An

O11

O12

O1k

O21

O22

O2k

On1

On2

Onk

U(O11)

U(O12)

U(O1k)

U(O21)

U(O22)

U(O2k)

U(On1)

U(On2)

U(Onk)

Select Ai

p11

p1k

p21

p1k

pn1

pnk

Alternatives Outcomes Preferences Choice





Why Study Decision Making in Design?

Most decision support tools in design and systems engineering violate thebasic principles of decision theory

QFD, Six Sigma, Pugh, Multi-Objective Design, Robust Design,Axiomatic Design,

All are flawed or at best very rough approximations of normative decisiontheory

We must understand what the approximations are and when these methodscan be used safely (not very often).




Introduction to ME 597

So, what is this course about?




ME 597 – Decision Making for Engineering Systems Design

Catalog Data: Multi-objective decision making under uncertainty;multi-attribute utility theory; applications to mechanical design;Game-theoretic models with applications in engineering systems design;design for market systems; optimization-based formulation of Nash equilibria;applications to sustainable design and policy.




Course Objectives

Upon completion of this course, the student should be able to:1 Frame decisions and model designers’ preferences under risk2 Apply formal decision-making approaches to mechanical design3 Critically evaluate the assumptions and limitations of design decision

making approaches4 Formulate and execute decisions in presence of other decision makers

using game theoretic models5 Apply game-theoretic models to engineering systems design6 Adopt an interdisciplinary approach among engineering, economics, and

social sciences




Grading Scheme

Assignments 30%Mid-term Project 30%Final Project 30%Final Paper 10%




Overview of Topics

1 Fundamentals (3 weeks)Selection decisions in designElements of a decision problemValue-focused thinkingDecision making under certainty

2 Multi-attribute Decision Making (4 weeks)Utility axiomsUnidimensional utility theory and Multi-attribute utility theoryValue of informationGroup preferences and aggregation

3 Game Theory (4 weeks)Elements of a game; Equilibria in strategic form gamesMixed strategy equilibriaSequential decisions and sub-game perfectionComplementarity formulation of Nash equilibrium problems

4 Applications (4 weeks)Product design: Simulation-based design; Demand modeling; Public goods,voluntary contributions, etc.; Incentive design in crowdsourcing and designcompetitions; Design for market systemsPolicy and systems design: Energy policy design; Sustainability policydesignComplex networked systems




Key References

1 R. T. Clemen, 1996, Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to DecisionAnalysis. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth Publishing Company.

2 R. L. Keeney and H. Raiffa, 1976, Decisions with Multiple Objectives:Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. New York: John Wiley and Sons.

3 P.K. Dutta, 1999, Strategies and Games: Theory and Practice,Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.




Additional References

1 G. A. Hazelrigg, 2012, Fundamentals of Decision Making ForEngineering Design and Systems Engineering:http://www.engineeringdecisionmaking.com.

2 R. L. Keeney, 1992, Value Focused Thinking. Cambridge, MA: HarvardUniversity Press.

3 K. E. Lewis, W. Chen, and L. C. Schmidt, eds., 2006, Decision Making inEngineering Design. New York, NY: ASME press.

4 R. B. Myerson, 1991, Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict. Cambridge,MA: Harvard University Press.

5 C. D. Aliprantis and S. K. Chakrabarti, 1999, Games and DecisionMaking. New York: Oxford University Press.

6 D. Fudenberg and J. Tirole, 1993, Game Theory. Cambridge, MA: MITPress.


http://www.engineeringdecisionmaking.com



Emergency Preparedness – A Message from Purdue (1)

To report an emergency, call 911. To obtain updates regarding an ongoingemergency, sign up for Purdue Alert text messages, viewwww.purdue.edu//ea.

There are nearly 300 Emergency Telephones outdoors across campus and inparking garages that connect directly to the PUPD. If you feel threatened orneed help, push the button and you will be connected immediately.

If we hear a fire alarm during class we will immediately suspend class,evacuate the building, and proceed outdoors. Do not use the elevator.


www.purdue.edu//ea



Emergency Preparedness – A Message from Purdue (2)

If we are notified during class of a Shelter in Place requirement for a tornadowarning, we will suspend class and shelter in [the basement].

If we are notified during class of a Shelter in Place requirement for ahazardous materials release, or a civil disturbance, including a shooting orother use of weapons, we will suspend class and shelter in the classroom,shutting the door and turning off the lights.

Please review the Emergency Preparedness website for additionalinformation.http://www.purdue.edu/ehps/emergency_preparedness/index.html


http://www.purdue.edu/ehps/emergency_preparedness/index.html



THANK YOU!


lecture 01 course overview - purdue engineeringcontext – engineering systems design decision...

Documents