lecture 1 basics of economics & elasticity given to the emba 8400 class buckhead center march 7,...
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Lecture 1 Basics of Economics & Elasticity
Given to theGiven to theEMBA 8400 ClassEMBA 8400 ClassBuckhead CenterBuckhead Center
March 7, 2009March 7, 2009
Dr. Rajeev Dr. Rajeev DhawanDhawanDirectorDirector
Course Objective & Teaching Philosophy
Practical Course to Comprehend the Economic Environment so that Managers can make their Decisions
Philosophy is that Micro Sectors Add Up to a Macro Environment
Optimal Blend of Economics and Real World Experience/Common Sense
Train You to Critically Evaluate and Interpret Business Press Writings
Course Layout First Part (Lectures 1 & 2) - Basic Micro
Economic Concepts Second Part (Lectures 3 & 4) – Basics of
Macroeconomics Third Part (Lectures 5 & 6) Basic Workings
of an Economy with the Help of a “Basic” Macromodel that can Perform Real-Life Fiscal And Monetary Experiments
Wrap up Project Presentations (Lecture 7)
Background Articles
My Economics Why Journalists Can't Add Where Presidents Have No Power Their Money Our Strength How to Stop Relatives from Bragging About
their Big Profits in Real Estate
Grading Policy
40% Midterm30% Group Presentations on a
Selected Industry30% Take Home Final Exam
–Macroeconomic Model Exercise
Group PresentationsThe objectives of this group project are :
1. To help you bridge the gap between the economic theory and
models discussed in class and the “real world”
2. To confront the problems of trying to find data which are
appropriate for the questions under consideration and to deal
with the problems of incomplete information
3. To showcase your oral and written communication skills
4. To identify how the problems faced and the decisions made by
other firms are similar to your own.
Suggested Industries1. Wireless Communications
2. Networking & Security Systems
3. Aerospace Industry
4. Healthcare Industry
5. Hospitality Industry
6. Heavy Equipment
7. Banking
8. Consumer Products
9. Online / E-commerce
10. Real Estate (any topic)
11. Entertainment Industry
12. Shipping Industry
Macro Framework
Households: Consume & WorkFirms: Production & InvestmentGovernment: Money Supply,
Taxes, ExpendituresForeign Sector: Exports,
Imports & Exchange Rate
Macroeconomic Model For Teaching
Section 1: A Model Simulation Approach to Macroeconomics Section 2: Classification of Equations Section 3: Glossary of Variables Section 4: Listing of Equations in the Integrated Macro Model Section 5: Flow Diagram of Integrated Macro Model Section 6: Policy Experiments with Integrated Macro Model Section 7: Guidelines to Use the Model
Variable Meaning Units
C Consumption Billions of $
EX Exports Billions of $
EXCH Exchange Rate Index
G Government Purchases Billions of $
GDP Gross Domestic Product Billions of $
GDP@FULL
GDP @ Full Employment Billions of $
GDP@ROW
GDP in Rest of the World Billions of $
I Investment Billions of $
IM Imports Billions of $
M Money supply Billions of $
NETEX Net Exports Billions of $
P Price Level Index
P% Inflation Percent
P@ROW Price Level, Rest of the World Index
R Real Interest Rate Percent
R@ROW Real Interest Rate, Rest of the World Percent
T Tax Revenues Billions of $
TAX% Tax Rate Fraction
YDP Disposable Income Billions of $
GLOSSARY OF VARIABLES
world interest
rateworld GDP
IMPORTS
price level lag 1
worldprice
money
government
tax rate
capital stock lag 1
EXCHANGE RATE
INTEREST RATE
INVESTMENT
TAX REVENUES
investmentlag 1
EXPORTS
NETEXPORTS
REAL GDP
CONSUMPTION
DISPOSABLE INCOME
CAPITAL STOCK
inflationlag 1
PRICE LEVEL
INFLATION
EXPECTED INFLATION
UNEMPLOYMENT
POTENTIAL GDP
labor force
~~Typical Macro-ModelTypical Macro-Model~~
world interest
rateworld GDP
IMPORTS
price level lag 1
worldprice
government
tax rate
capital stock lag 1
EXCHANGE RATE
INTEREST RATE
INVESTMENT
TAX REVENUES
investmentlag 1
EXPORTS
NETEXPORTS
REAL GDP
CONSUMPTION
DISPOSABLE INCOME
CAPITAL STOCK
inflationlag 1
PRICE LEVEL
INFLATION
EXPECTED INFLATION
UNEMPLOYMENT
POTENTIAL GDP
labor force
~~Typical Macro-ModelTypical Macro-Model~~
money
world interest
rateworld GDP
IMPORTS
price level lag 1
worldprice
government
tax rate
capital stock lag 1
EXCHANGE RATE
INTEREST RATE
INVESTMENT
TAX REVENUES
investmentlag 1
EXPORTS
NETEXPORTS
REAL GDP
CONSUMPTION
DISPOSABLE INCOME
CAPITAL STOCK
inflationlag 1
PRICE LEVEL
INFLATION
EXPECTED INFLATION
UNEMPLOYMENT
POTENTIAL GDP
labor force
~~Typical Macro-ModelTypical Macro-Model~~
money
world interest
rateworld GDP
IMPORTS
price level lag 1
worldprice
government
tax rate
capital stock lag 1
EXCHANGE RATE
INTEREST RATE
INVESTMENT
TAX REVENUES
investmentlag 1
EXPORTS
NETEXPORTS
REAL GDP
CONSUMPTION
DISPOSABLE INCOME
CAPITAL STOCK
inflationlag 1
PRICE LEVEL
INFLATION
EXPECTED INFLATION
UNEMPLOYMENT
POTENTIAL GDP
labor force
~~Typical Macro-ModelTypical Macro-Model~~
money
world interest
rateworld GDP
IMPORTS
price level lag 1
worldprice
government
tax rate
capital stock lag 1
EXCHANGE RATE
INTEREST RATE
INVESTMENT
TAX REVENUES
investmentlag 1
EXPORTS
NETEXPORTS
REAL GDP
CONSUMPTION
DISPOSABLE INCOME
CAPITAL STOCK
inflationlag 1
PRICE LEVEL
INFLATION
EXPECTED INFLATION
UNEMPLOYMENT
POTENTIAL GDP
labor force
~~”New Economy” Macro-Model”New Economy” Macro-Model~~
money
Tech/ProfitOpportunities
STOCK MARKET
CONSUMPTION
world interest
rateworld GDP
IMPORTS
price level lag 1
worldprice
government
tax rate
capital stock lag 1
EXCHANGE RATE
INTEREST RATE
INVESTMENT
TAX REVENUES
investmentlag 1
EXPORTS
NETEXPORTS
REAL GDP
CONSUMPTION
DISPOSABLE INCOME
CAPITAL STOCK
inflationlag 1
PRICE LEVEL
INFLATION
EXPECTED INFLATION
UNEMPLOYMENT
POTENTIAL GDP
labor force
~~”New Economy” Macro-Model”New Economy” Macro-Model~~
money
Tech/ProfitOpportunities
EUPHORIA
STOCK MARKET
world interest
rateworld GDP
IMPORTS
price level lag 1
worldprice
government
tax rate
capital stock lag 1
EXCHANGE RATE
INTEREST RATE
INVESTMENT
TAX REVENUES
investmentlag 1
EXPORTS
NETEXPORTS
REAL GDP
CONSUMPTION
DISPOSABLE INCOME
CAPITAL STOCK
inflationlag 1
PRICE LEVEL
INFLATION
EXPECTED INFLATION
UNEMPLOYMENT
POTENTIAL GDP
labor force
~~”New Economy” Macro-Model”New Economy” Macro-Model~~
money
Tech/ProfitOpportunities
EUPHORIA
STOCK MARKET
EUPHORIA
world interest
rateworld GDP
IMPORTS
price level lag 1
worldprice
government
tax rate
capital stock lag 1
EXCHANGE RATE
INTEREST RATE
INVESTMENT
TAX REVENUES
investmentlag 1
EXPORTS
NETEXPORTS
REAL GDP
CONSUMPTION
DISPOSABLE INCOME
CAPITAL STOCK
inflationlag 1
PRICE LEVEL
INFLATION
EXPECTED INFLATION
UNEMPLOYMENT
POTENTIAL GDP
labor force
~~””New Economy” Macro-ModelNew Economy” Macro-Model~~
money
Tech/ProfitOpportunities
STOCK MARKET
EUPHORIA
Introduction
The 10 Principles of Economics
What is Economics? Economics is the study of how we use our scarce
productive resources for consumption, now or in future.– Paul Samuelson
Resources are scarce:– Society has limited resources and therefore cannot
produce all the goods and services people wish to have
– Example: clean air & water
– Scarcity is not poverty
Basic Questions
What to produce in what quantity? How to produce them? When and where to produce? For whom? Who makes economic decisions and by
what process?
Basic Concepts
Opportunity Cost: Things are Scarce
– Next Best Alternative Ex: Party on Friday night vs. study for examsEx: Party on Friday night vs. study for exams
– Cost of Time Ex: 1 hour wait time at the dentistEx: 1 hour wait time at the dentist
Basic Concepts Marginal Concept: At the Margin
Shot SatisfactionMarginal
Satisfaction1 50
202 70
103 80
54 85
15 86
06 86
Shots of Wild Turkey
Utility: Level of Satisfaction (here, drunkenness)
Basic Concepts
Sunk/Fixed Costs: Expenditures Made that Cannot be Recovered– Example:
You bought a computer laptop for $1500 A newer, upgraded model costs $1200 The dealer will accept a trade in + $400 What do you do?
10 Principles of Economics1. People face tradeoffs :
• “No such thing as free lunch”• Give up one thing to get another –
Opportunity Cost (OC)2. Everything has an OC – whatever must be given
up to get that item3. People make decisions at the margins –
increments matter4. People respond to incentives – e.g. cigarette
laws, communism5. Free Trade is good (for everybody)
10 Principles of Economics6. Markets organize economic activity
- Adam Smith “Invisible Hand”
7. Governments can sometimes improve market outcome
8. A country’s standard of living depends upon its production power (productivity)
9. Prices rise when government prints too much money
10. Phillips curve – short run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment
Branches of Economics
Micro: The Study of One Entity (firm, business, people)
Macro: The Study of a Collection of Things (national, aggregate)
How are Theories Developed?
Decision-Makers– Firms, governments
Markets– Place where exchange takes place
Winnick’s Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea WSJ; by Andy Kessler
First Mover, FCC regulated + fixed costsRegulated utilityPrice protection
You can’t lose Traffic / use was of low economic value or
cashlessGlobal Crossing couldn't cut prices without running
the risk of either failing to cover its debt or being unable to raise more capital
Accounting Tricks…….
Reshuffling to scarce resources– He can make lots of money just by shifting more of his
production - and more of his customers – from 1.5L jugs of generic red that sell for less than $5 retail to smaller bottles of $7 Merlot
The Future– The higher end is where the profits and the growth are to
be found– The Italians have figured it out – how to create tastes
that suit the American palate
Who REALLY Owns that Winery TIME Magazine; by Terry McCarthy
Chapter 4
Demand & Supply
Some Basic Definitions
Market: a group of buyers and sellers of a particular good or service– E.g. Warren Buffet has been buying up junk
bonds– E.g. Bars, parties – informal market
Stock market – organized market
Example of Supply & Demand Hong Kong chicken flu scare? Price of chicken
Mad cow disease in US? Price of beef
Oprah bad mouths beef? Price of beef – Amarillo farmers sue her.
SARS? (Macro issue…)
DemandQuantity demanded (Q): the amount of a good that buyers are willing and able to purchase at a given price (P).
Pints of BeerPints of Beer
P QD
$10.00 07.00 15.00 34.00 62.00 110.00 19
Demand for Beer
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
0 5 10 15 20Quantity (Pints)
Pri
ce
Market Demand versus Individual Demand
Market demand refers to the sum of all individual demands for a particular good or service.
Graphically, individual demand curves are summed horizontally to obtain the market demand curve.
The Market Demand Curve
Price of Beers
Price of Beers
Price of Beers
5.00 5.00 5.00
3 4 7
4.00 4.004.00
6 7 13
Quantity of Beers Quantity of Beers Quantity of Beers
Catherine’s Demand Nicholas’s Demand Market Demand+ =
When the price is $5.00, Catherine will demand 3 beers.
When the price is $5.00, Nicholas will demand 4 beers.
The market demand at $5.00 will be 7 beers.
When the price is $4.00, Catherine will demand 6 beers.
When the price is $4.00, Nicholas will demand 7 beers.
The market demand at $4.00, will be 13 beers.
The market demand curve is the horizontal sum of the individual demand curves!
Graph Results
Demand curve/schedule is downward sloping and shows the relationship between price of a good and the quantity demanded
Why downward sloping?– Law of demand: Ceteris Paribus (all other
things being equal) the quantity demanded falls when price rises
Other Determinants of Demand
Income (I) :– I , D Normal Goods: car, Ferrari– I , D Inferior goods: bus rides, potatoes
Price of related goods– Substitutes (inversely correlated)– Compliments (directly correlated)
Other Determinants of Demand
Tastes – taken as above– You get old and prefer Lincoln Town cars to sports cars
Expectations – about future– Income potential with EMBA degree – Loss of jobs, layoffs prospects
Market Demand – More players Increase in demand
– Buy IPO’s in 90’s
Shifts in Demand Curve
Variables that shift the demand curve:
Shifts in the Demand CurvePrice of
Beer
Quantity ofBeer
Increasein demand
Decreasein demand
Demand curve, D3
Demandcurve, D1
Demandcurve, D2
0
SupplyQuantity supplied (Q): the amount of a good that sellers are willing and able to sell at a given price (P).
Pints of BeerPints of Beer
P QS
$10.00 127.00 75.00 44.00 32.00 10.00 0
Supply of Beer - Neighbors
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12Quantity (Pints)
Pri
ce
Supply
Supply graph for another bar
Supply of Beer - Hand in Hand
$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.00$7.00$8.00$9.00
$10.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12Quantity (Pints)
Pri
ce Pints of BeerPints of Beer
P QS
$10.00 87.00 55.00 44.00 32.00 10.00 0
Determinants of Supply
Your own Price Input Prices
– Cost of bottle of beer: labor, capital, rent
Technology – Smoking laws separation of smoking &
drinking
Expectations– Future outlook
Shifts in The Supply Curve
Variables that shift the supply curve:
Shifts In Supply CurvePrice of
Beer
Quantity ofBeer0
Increasein supply
Decreasein supply
Supply curve, S3
curve, Supply
S1Supply
curve, S2
Equilibrium
Equilibrium: the price where quantity supplied is equal to quantity demanded
Market for Beer
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
0 5 10 15 20Quantity (Pints)
Pri
ce
Equilibrium
6
Markets Not In Equilibrium
Price ofBeer
0
Supply
Demand
Excess Supply
Quantitydemanded
Quantitysupplied
Surplus
Quantity ofBeer
2
$6.50
10
4.00
6
Markets Not In EquilibriumPrice of
0
Supply
Demand
Excess Demand
Quantity ofBeer
Beer
0Quantitysupplied
Quantitydemanded
2.50
10
$4.00
62
Shortage
Changes in Equilibrium Decide whether the event shifts the supply or demand
curve (or both). Decide whether the curve(s) shift(s) to the left or to the
right. Use the supply-and-demand diagram to see how the shift
affects equilibrium price and quantity.
Changes in Equilibrium
Price ofBeer
0 Pints of Beer
Supply
Initialequilibrium
An increase in wealth
increases demand for beer
0
Demand
Newequilibrium
Initial equilibrium
S1
S2
An increase in the
price of hops reduces
the supply of beer
4.00
6
$6.50
2
D1
Price ofBeer
D2
Pints of Beer
4.00
6
New equilibrium
$6.50
10
Market for Beer
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
0 5 10 15 20Quantity (Pints)
Pri
ce
S2
S1
One bar closes…New
Equilibrium
4
$5.00
Chapter 5
Elasticity
Elasticity & Its Application Evaluating questions like-
– Banana Republic store manager/headquarters needs to decide on sale on jeans vs. sale on shirts
– Rain destroys strawberry crop, prices go . Does it benefit growers ?
– Why don’t you ever see sale or discounts on pure milk but see it on orange juice ?
These can be answered with the concept of elasticity (or responsiveness of buyers & sellers to changes in market conditions)
Elasticity Price elasticity of demand: a measure of how
much the quantity demanded of a good responds to a change in the price of that good
P rice e las tic ity o f d em an d =P ercen tag e ch an g e in q u an tity d em an d ed
P ercen tag e ch an g e in p rice
Continued.. Two types of demand:
– Elastic – responds a lot e.g. luxury cars ( luxuries)– Inelastic – not much change e.g. milk, certain food
items, gasoline ( necessities) Preferences: Luxuries vs. Necessities Availability of close substitutes: Elastic
– Butter & margarine; cars, booze Time horizon:
– Gasoline – necessity in short run– Substitute long run (electric cars, walk, bike)
Elasticity
Inelastic Demand– Quantity demanded does not respond strongly
to price changes.– Price elasticity of demand is < one.
Elastic Demand– Quantity demanded responds strongly to
changes in price.– Price elasticity of demand is > one.
Demand Curves
Question: Can I tell from the graphical shape of the demand curve what kind of elasticity the curve has?
Answer: Yes, but not all the time.
Perfectly Inelastic Demand
Elasticity = 0
$5
4
Quantity
Demand
1000
1. Anincreasein price . . .
2. . . . leaves the quantity demanded unchanged.
Price
3. . . . revenue goes from $4 x 100 to $5 x 100
Inelastic Demand
Elasticity < 1
Quantity0
$5
90
Demand1. A 22%increasein price . . .
Price
2. . . . leads to an 11% decrease in quantity demanded.
4
100
3. . . . revenue goes from $4 x 100 to $5 x 90
Unit Elastic Demand
Elasticity = 1
Quantity0
$5
80
1. A 22%increasein price . . .
Price
2. . . . leads to a 22% decrease in quantity demanded.
4
100
Demand
3. . . . revenue goes from $4 x 100 to $5 x 80
Elastic Demand
Elasticity > 1
Quantity0
$5
50
1. A 22%increasein price . . .
Price
2. . . . leads to a 67% decrease in quantity demanded.
4
100
Demand
3. . . . revenue goes from $4 x 100 to $5 x 50
Perfectly Elastic Demand
Elasticity = Infinity
Quantity0
Price
$4 Demand
2. At exactly $4,consumers willbuy any quantity.
1. At any priceabove $4, quantitydemanded is zero.
3. At a price below $4,quantity demanded is infinite.
Relationship Between Total Revenue (Sales) & Elasticity
Total Revenue = Price x Qty Sold = P x Qty If demand is elastic, then a price decrease
increases revenue If demand is inelastic, then a price increase
increases revenueExample class to contribute
Box Shows the 50% Drop of New Paying Customers for the May & August 2004 Conference Caused by the Latest Price Hike
Conference Date Attendance New Paying % of Total
Feb’ 01 72 6 8%
May’ 01 66 10 15%
Aug’ 01 101 31 31%
Nov’ 01 163 49 30%
Feb’ 02 189 28 15%
May’ 02 160 42 26%
Aug’ 02 195 62 32%
Nov’ 02 169 44 26%
Feb’ 03 260 55 21%
May’ 03 196 37 19%
Aug’ 03 220 43 20%
Nov’ 03 222 40 18%
Feb’ 04 238 48 20%
May’ 04 201 25 12%
Aug’ 04 211 23 11%
1st Price Hike
2nd Price Hike
Applications of Supply, Demand & Elasticity
Can good news for farmers be bad news for farmers?
Wheat is inelastic: Bumper crop bad news
Increase In Supply In Market For Wheat
Quantity ofWheat
0
Price ofWheat
3. . . . and a proportionately smallerincrease in quantity sold. As a result,revenue falls from $300 to $220.
Demand
S1 S2
2. . . . leadsto a large fallin price . . .
1. When demand is inelastic,an increase in supply . . .
2
110
$3
100