"lida - leben in der arbeit" german cohort study on work, age and healthy
DESCRIPTION
Eduprof Expertmeeting 14-15 April 2011 Groningen. Presentation on German Cohort Study on Work, Age and Health by Angela Rauch, Anita Tisch, Silke tophoven and Stefan Bender, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, GermanyTRANSCRIPT
„lidA – leben in der Arbeit“German Cohort Studyon Work, Age and Health
Groningen April 14, 2011
Angela Rauch, Anita Tisch, Silke Tophoven and Stefan Bender (IAB)
Outline
1. Motivation I and II
2. Main Questions
3. The lidA-cohorts
4. Facts about lidA (Content, Sampling Design)
5. Linkage with Administrative Data
6. Related German surveys
7. Conclusion
2
Motivation I
• Estimation of job displacement on Mortality (Sullivan/von Wachter 2010)
• Admin Data of male Pennsylvanian workers in 70s/80s matched to Social Security Administration death records 1980-2006.
• For high-seniority male workers, mortality rates in the year after displacement are 50-100% higher.
• The effect declines sharply over time, but even 20 years later still 10-15% increase in annual death hazards.
• A loss in life expectancy of 1.0-1.5 years for a worker displaced at age 40.
• Workers with larger losses in earnings tend to suffer greater increases in mortality (no causal effect).
3
Motivation II
• The working life of tomorrow will be characterised by – higher intensity of work, – much faster rate of change (technology and
organisation), – flexible working hours and arrangements, – more interpersonal work/group work, – higher proportion of immigrant workers etc.
4
Motivation II
5
• Older work force as demographic changes prohibit early labour exit possibilities and incentives.
• Effective average retirement age may rise from just under 60 (2005) to almost 65 by 2050 (Börsch-Supan 2005).
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 204010.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
20.0
22.5
25.0Labour force projection until 2040
age 20-34 age 35-49 age 50-66
pers
ons
in m
illio
n
Source: Federal Statistical Office (2009). Results of the 12th coordinated population projection. Variant: “Medium“ population, lower limit .
Main questions
• Participation in the labour force among elderly persons depends on two main factors:– Can the person work? (work ability). Functional
ability (health)– Does the person want to (continue to) work?
(motivation, willingness). Psychological factors and positive qualities of work (may connected with health)
• Work affects health and health effects work!!!
6
Main Questions
Main question:• How does work affect health and vice versa in higher working age?
Basic research models:• The influence of different work exposures on health under the
control of individual factors and socioeconomic status• The influence of socioeconomic status on health under the control of
individual and work related factors• Gender-specific aspects of the relationship between work and health
(different diseases, specific work aspects, non-work setting)
7
Main facts and ideas
• Deterioration of health begins after the age of 45 – especially among women and people with low educational levels
• The influences of age, cohort and time need to be separable in order to detect and forecast real developments.
• The application of a cohort-sequential design (known as Schaie's “Most Efficient Design”) allows for a tri-factor model isolating the impact of the factors age, cohort and time on work-related health.
8
9
German Baby Boomers1955
1959
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
2009
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
Geburten - Deutschland (Insgesamt)Geburten - West (Früheres Bundesgebiet)Zusammengefasste Geburtenziffer OstZusammengefasste Geburtenziffer West
Nu
mb
er
of
bir
ths
(in
th
ou
san
ds)
To
tal f
ert
ility
ra
te
Quelle:
Quelle:
Source: Federal Statistical Office 2010, BiB 2010; compiled by the authors.
Total fertility rate WestTotal fertility rate East
Births – Germany (Total) Births – Germany (West)
10
Framework conditions of labour market entry – overall economic development
1959
1965
1985
1995
2005
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1975
Arbeitslosenquote bezogen auf abhängige zivile Erwerbspersonen - in Prozent
Bruttoinlandsprodukt, preisbereinigt, verkettet - Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorjahr in Prozent
pe
rce
nt
Source: Federal Statistical Office 2011, compiled by the authors.
1959 cohort age 16
1965 cohort age 16
1965 cohort age 25
1959 cohort age 25
Unemployment rate (of dependent cilivian working population - percentage)
Gross domestic product (price adjusted, GDP - year to year percent change)
11
• German Baby Boomers1959: 1.24 million births (GDR +FRG)1965: 1.33 million births (GDR +FRG)
• Profiteers of the educational expansion in Germany
• Labour market entry during economic crises
• Now: At the threshold to older working age2008: 932,358 employees covered by social security born 1959; 1,048,788 employees covered by social security born 1965;about the same proportion of men and women
• In the future: A challenge for the social security systems
The lidA-cohortsIn general
Study DesignSequential Cohort Design
2019
2016
2013
462011
1959 cohort
1965 cohort
1971 cohort
cohort effects period effects age effects
48
51
54
45
48
52
54
57
60
12
Facts about the survey
• 6,000 randomly chosen persons in two cohorts: – approx. 2,700 of the 59-cohort– approx. 3,300 of the 65-cohort
• Duration of the questionaire: approx. 1 hour • CAPI-interviews• Follow-up after 3 years (panel design)
13
• Work: Physical exposure and psychosocial work exposure • Professional aspects: Work history, job satisfaction, work-home
interference, employment status, retirement expectations, work ability
• Subjective health and health indicators: Interviewee’s own rating of physical and psychological health, health behaviour, restrictions in activity, cognitive functioning, anxiety, depression, fatigue, addictive behaviour
• Objective health indicators: Hand grip strength test• Personal aspects: Lifestyle factors, activities of daily living, life
satisfaction, self confidence, motivation • Socio-demographic background: Age, gender, marital status,
education level, occupational position, occupational biography 14
Sampling Design
15
• sample drawn from the employment history data (BeH) of the federal employment agency
• two-stage sampling design: • first stage: 222 sample points, drawn proportionately to the
population • big cities are represented by more than one sample point• second stage: random selection of respondents within the
sample points • the same amount of interviews in each sample point• disproportional distribution of the two cohorts (oversampling
of the 1965s cohort)
Linkage with Administrative Data
Survey Data (CAPI)
Health insurance data
Administrative Datasets of the
Federal Employment Agency
16
‘Administrative data are computerized records that are gathered for some administrative purpose, but contain information that can be used for other purposes as well.’ (John Billings)‘Administrative data describes information collected by persons, organizations or departments of government for their own purposes.’ (Statistics Canada)
Health insurance data*
health insurance master data
data on inpatient care
data on outpatient care
disablement data
* Preliminary information as of September 2010
Work-Health-Matrix(aggregated data)
17
Linkage with Administrative Data IHealth Insurance Data
Establishment History Panel (BHP)
Integrated employment Biographies (IEB)
Datasets of the Federal Employment Agency
18
Linkage with Administrative Data II Administrative Datasets of the Federal Employment Agency
• total number of employees • number of full-time employees• number of female employees • employee age structure• wage structure• …
• cross sectional data (time reference 30 June)
• times of employment• times of unemployment• information on job search • participation in employment and training measures• …
• longitudinal data on a daily basis (west: 1975-2009; east: 1990-2009)
19
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
0102030405060708090
100
full-time part-time marginal employment vocational trainingrecipient of social benefit
%
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
%
MenEmployment status by age, born 1959
WomenEmployment status by age, born 1959
The lidA-cohortsEmployment Status
20
MenEmployment status by age, born 1965
WomenEmployment status by age, born 1965
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
full-time part-time marginal employment vocational trainingrecipient of social benefit
%
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
%The lidA-cohortsEmployment Status
• Maybe the other (short) presentation?
21
22
Linkage between survey data and administrative data:
1. Agreement rates:
Linkage with Administrative Data III First results of the pretest 2010 (n=200)
panel participation
(n=200)
linkage with datasets of the Federal Employment Agency
(n=200)
linkage with health insurance data
(n=192)
Written agreement (%) 95 83 68
Written agreement (n) 190 166 131
23
Difficulties record linkage health insurance data:
1. Individual level:
• health data = sensitive data
• written agreement necessary
• misspelling insurance number or insurance company’s name
Linkage with Administrative Data IV Health insurance data
24
Difficulties record linkage health insurance data:
1. Individual level:
Linkage with Administrative Data IV Health insurance data
25
Difficulties record linkage health insurance data:
1. Individual level:
• health data = sensitive data
• written agreement necessary
• misspelling insurance number or insurance company’s name
2. Insurance company level:
• only statutory health insurances
• large and changing number of insurances in Germany (>160)
• many small and regional insurances
Linkage with Administrative Data IV Health insurance data
26
Difficulties record linkage health insurance data:
Pretest 2010:
• 131 persons in 34 different insurance companies
Linkage with Administrative Data IV Health insurance data
Number persons(n=131)
Number insurance companies
Status of agreement on the insurance company’s level
75 (57 %) 11 data available4 (3 %) 2 no answer (Jan. 2011)
19 (15 %) 14 insurance company too small
32 (24 %) 7 refusal
1(<1 %) - linkage impossible
Outlook for the survey
• contact to health insurance companies (ongoing)
• February to summer 2011: data collection first wave
• September 2011: linkage to health insurance data and employment histories
• August/September 2013: start of the second wave of the survey
27
SHARE - Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe
• SHARE is a multidisciplinary and cross-national panel database of micro data on health, socio-economic status and social and family networks of more than 45,000 individuals aged 50 or over.
• In 2008 was selected as one of the projects to be implemented in the European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures (ESFRI).
• Eleven countries contributed data to the 2004 SHARE baseline study (Denmark, Sweden, Austria, France, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy and Greece). After 2005: Israel, Czech Republic, Poland and Ireland.
28
SHARE - content
• health variables• bio-markers (e.g. grip strength, body-mass index, peak flow), • psychological variables (e.g. well-being, life satisfaction),• economic variables • social support variables (e.g. assistance within families, transfers
of income and assets, social networks, volunteer activities).
• For Germany: link between SHARE and administrative data from the German Pension System
29
Future data: The National Cohort
• The National Cohort will be an intensive investigation of the health, lifestyle and genetics of 200,000 people over 10 years.
• One hour survey and one additional our medical examination (for example biomarkers), follow-up after 5 years (plan: lifelong study).
• 40,000 participants will be scanned with advanced magnetic resonance imaging (early signs of common diseases).
• Main question: how chronic diseases are conditioned by lifestyle and environmental issues, as well as by genetic.
• Plan: Linkage to administrative data (agreement of the individuals).
30
Conclusion
• Labour market and health will be a key topic for research in the next years
• Linkage of surveys, medical test data and administrated data (agreement of the individuals)
• lidA will help to unterstand the relation between health and work (hope you agree!)
• Same design for the National Cohort• Need for cross-national comparison (Share)
31
Universität UlmRichard Peter (Projektleiter) Jean-Baptist du Prel
infas Helmut Schröder (Projektleiter) Jacob SteinwedeAnne Kersting
Universität Magdeburg Enno Swart (Projektleiter) Stefanie MarchDorothea Thomas
Bergische Universität Wuppertal Bernd Hans Müller (Projektleiter)Juliane HardtMelanie EbenerMario Iskenius Martin Willner
Töres Theorell
associated partner: Hans Martin Hasselhorn, Uwe Rose (BAuA)
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung Angela Rauch (Projektleiterin) Stefan Bender Markus PrombergerPatrycja SciochAnita TischSilke Tophoven Mark Trappmann
lidA - Konsortium
32
34
Backup
Employment status by age, born 1959
35
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000
1,000,0001,100,000
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000
1,000,0001,100,000
full-time part-time marginal employment vocational trainingrecipient of social benefit
Employment status by age, born 1965
The lidA-cohortsEmployment Status
36
4 3 4 4 4
5041 35
29 25
10
1414
1413
1617
2124
25
20 23 25 28 33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Geburtskohorte1947
Geburtskohorte 1953
Geburtskohorte 1959
Geburtskohorte1965
Geburtskohorte1971
in P
roze
nt
Höchster allgemeiner Schulabschluss 2008
ohne allgemeinen Schulabschluss Haupt-/Volksschulabschluss
Abschluss der polytechnischen Oberschule Realschul- oder gleichwertiger Abschluss
Fachhochschul- oder Hochschulreife
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt 2009. Eigene Darstellung.
The lidA-cohortsEducation