linamar corporation and covid-19 related update on...expectations until market conditions become...
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Certain information regarding Linamar set forth in this presentation and oral summary, including management’s assessment of the Company’s future plans and operations may constitute forward-looking statements. This information is based on current expectations that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially from these anticipated in the forward-looking statements due to factors such as customer demand and timing of buying decisions, product mix, competitive products and pricing pressure. In addition, uncertainties and difficulties in domestic and foreign financial markets and economies could adversely affect demand from customers. These factors, as well as general economic and political conditions, may in turn have a material adverse effect on the Company’s financial results. The Company assumes no obligation to update the forward-looking statements, or to update the reasons why actual results could differ from those reflected in the forward-looking statements. Content is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced or repurposed without express written consent by the Company.
Forward Looking Information, Risk and Uncertainties
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Forward Looking Information, Risk and Uncertainties
© Linamar Corporation 2
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Summary of Key Highlights:
Linamar has a COVID-19 Global Task Force and Action Response Plan in place
Key end markets have witnessed a significant drop off in volume, mostly due to production shut downs, shelter-in-place orders, etc. that have impacted our customer demand
Linamar started 2020 in a strong position with over $1.1B CAD of Liquidity in cash + available credit
The company is withdrawing its last stated Outlook on 2020 Consolidated and Segmented Financial Expectations until market conditions become more clear
The company is supporting our communities during this crisis in a number of ways including expedited ramp up of complete ventilator systems and components for numerous customers
Linamar Q1 and COVID-19 Related Market Commentary
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Linamar COVID-19 Update: Global Response Efforts
Health First: Established the ‘Linamar Health First’ Task force in mid-March to enact a
comprehensive Action Plan in response to the unprecedented closures, shutdowns and restrictions. First and foremost, the task force is focused on Health and Safety of all our
Employees. Linamar has had a combination of employee work situations ranging from
limited workers on site, to working from home, vacation, sick leave, and on layoff, etc. New protocols are in place for physical distancing, sites closed to external
visitors, and the highest level of cleaning and disinfecting. Working Groups established with our customers and other industry players
on best practices for safe re-start procedures for when the shut down period ends. Communication and 2-way information flow update cadence occurring daily Shareholder communications to date can be found at this website location:
https://www.linamar.com/coronavirus
COVID-19 Task Force
North America: Majority of our operations and/or industries are deemed essential per provincial or
stated guidelines and are not mandated to be shutdown, currently however, the majority of our operations are shutdown across both the Transportation and Industrial Segments in alignment with customer demand Currently along with the automotive OEMs, tentative partial restart timing is
planned for the week of May 4thEurope: Nearly all manufacturing sites have been shutdown for the past several weeks
inline with government orders and lockdown restriction guidelines. Some Europe sites will begin to come back online beginning the week of April 20th.
China: All Linamar manufacturing sites have been back up and running for a number of
weeks with approx. 95% of employees having returned to work. China based customers have restarted with the majority of vehicle plants in the
country reporting they are back to nearly full operating capacity as of the beginning of April With shutdowns and curfews easing, our customers’ focus has turned to close
monitoring of the supply chain and consumer demand
Operations Update
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70.0
-4.5
-4.7
-7.8
-1.5
88.6
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
Dec-2019Fcst
North America Europe Asia Pacific ROW Apr-2020Fcst
Vehic
le Pr
oduc
tion (
mil)
2020E Full Year Global Vehicle Production Forecast By RegionChange in Forecast Apr-2020 vs. Dec-2019
Global LV Auto Market: Q1 & 2020FYQ1 Production down 4.4M, Annual Forecast Down 18.6M Units vs Prior Quarter Forecast.
Source: IHS Markit, April 16, 2020. Comparison of global light vehicle production forecast at end of Q4 2019 vs latest available forecast
17.3
-0.7
-0.8
-2.8
-0.2
21.7
16.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
20.0
21.0
22.0
23.0
Dec-2019Fcst
North America Europe Asia-Pacific ROW Apr-2020Fcst
Vehic
le Pr
oduc
tion (
mil)
Q1-2020 Global Vehicle Production Forecast By RegionChange in Forecast Apr-2020 vs. Dec-2019
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Regional LV Auto Production UpdateCOVID-19 Related Impact vs. Prior Forecast and Expected Recovery
Global: At the time of latest publication on April 16, global light vehicle 2020 production forecast stood at 70M, a reduction of 18.6M units compared to the I.H.S. January 2020 forecast. Current industry expert expectations are for volumes to recover in 2021 with a YoY increase of 15%, 3-6% growth from 2022-2024. Some downside risk still exists to this latest 2020 forecast.
US: Latest industry expert 2020 US full year LV sales forecast now estimated at 12.5M, rebounding with an expected ~20% YoY increase for 2021.
Outlook Comments
Source of Chart and Stats Commentary: IHS Markit, April 16, 2020
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
North America Europe Greater China
Light
Vehic
les (M
illion
s)
Regional LV Production Impact
2018 2019 2020E (Jan) 2020E (Today) 2021E (Today)
77
Industrial Segment Impacts
With rental customers delaying CapEx spend and construction activities slowed, Skyjack experienced significantly steeper declines than was previously disclosed during the Q4 2019 Conference Call The global scissor and boom market overall in Q1 is expected
to be down 35-45% Source: Industry and Internal Management Reports
Access Equipment Market Commentary
The North American Combine Retail sales market decreased 20-25% in Q1 vs. Q1 2019
Source: Industry Reports
MacDon’s sales, while sensitive to market demand, were not materially additionally impacted by COVID-19 related issues -operations did shut down beginning April 1st, but the workforce has since returned to work and operations have restarted
Agriculture Market Commentary
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Linamar COVID-19 Update: Financial Commentary
Cash: Cash Conservation and cost control are top of mind to mitigate this impact. We have moved quickly to cut costs and capital spending. We have created a global team to pursue additional cost and waste
reduction initiatives. We have immediately implemented highest level cash payment controls. We have a system in place for efficiently adjusting financial forecasts on a
weekly basis with our global team giving us excellent up to the minute visibility.
Financial Impact
Balance Sheet: Our balance sheet is strong and we are carefully stress testing to
understand our limits; we remain confident that our focus and responsiveness in this area will see us through this situation financially even in the event of a prolonged shutdown period. Financial models based on current knowledge and those stressed for
extended shutdowns and slower ramp-ups, continue to show 2020 full year results profitable with positive FCF and not breaching any covenants. We have no debt maturing this year. Predicting the outcome of this situation is impossible but our reaction
is swift and we are keeping a close eye on all expected impacts.
Clearly, this major shutdown will have significant impact on Linamar financially in 2020. We have established controls and processes to ensure we are constantly reviewing the latest outlook and potential scenarios.
We are withdrawing our previous Outlook for both consolidated and segmented 2020 financial expectations previously disclosed on March 11th. We will provide further insights, to the extent possible, at our Q1 Earnings Conference call on May 13th at 5pm EDT.
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30%
70%
Cash Available Credit
Liquidity: Over $1.1 Billion in Cash and Available Credit
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019
Debt
Utiliz
ation
%
$ Mllio
ns C
AD
Cash Available Credit Debt UtilizationDebt Utilization = 100% - Available Credit/(Available Credit + Total Debt)
Note: At December 31, 2019, cash and cash equivalents, including short-term deposits (net of unpresented cheques) was $338.2 million and the Company’s credit facilities had available credit of $771.1 million.
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Linamar COVID-19 Update: Community Support
Ventilator Production Currently have activities on numerous ventilator programs that we are supporting – now in
an expedited production ramp-up mode. Two of these programs are for Ontario based ventilator companies supporting recently announced initiatives by the Canadian Federal government as well as the Ontario provincial government. A third initiative is being explored in Manitoba with MacDon supporting. Additionally, Linamar is engaged with our automotive OEM customers on various efforts they are leading. Some programs we are supplying machined components, some additionally sub assembly
and some our full supply chain management & final assembly expertise.
Community Support Linamar’s Trucking and Logistics division has been working with local Food Banks or
Community Outreach programs on pickup and delivery of donated food inventory to aid those most vulnerable with safe food supply where possible. We are leveraging our Global Supply Chain capabilities to source and expedite delivery of
much needed personal protective equipment (PPE) for front line healthcare workers in our communities. We are receiving and warehousing PPE donations from other corporations to stage for local
healthcare sites as needed
Support Efforts
We Are Together
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Model: MOVES SLCBOM: 1700Volume: >1,200Description: Fully integrated ICU ventilator. Combines complete vital sign monitoring
with a high tech ventilator, in a standalone battery powered unit. An ICU in a box.Scope: Components, final assembly and supply chain
Thornhill Medical
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O-Two MedicalModel: eSeries e700BOM: 150Volume: >10,000Description: Electronically controlled, pneumatically powered ventilator developed for
patient transport and resuscitation. Designed to be a simple, easy to use, battery powered transport ventilator.
Scope: 43 machined components, possibly sub-assembly
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COVID-19 New Cases Reported: United States, Europe & China
Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, April 20, 2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10
US Europe China
Europe and China data graphed using US timeline to show comparison.
Today
Total Cases Population (Millions)
Cases per Million
US 759,687 330.6 2,298Europe 1,026,276 747.6 1,373China 83,817 1,434.0 58
China lockdown started (week 2)
China lockdown ended (week
11)
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Global Light Vehicle Production
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Millio
ns
April 16 Forecast January 16 Forecast
COVID-19 has caused major reduction in global light vehicle production forecast, greater in magnitude than 2008/9 financial crisis. But production is expected to normalize in 2020, with growth resuming in 2021 (+15% YoY)
Peak to trough (2007 to 2009)
-11.1M
Peak to trough (2019 to 2020)
-18.8M
Source: IHS Markit, April 16, 2020 Forecast